Found Deceased WA - Julie Montague Ayers, 67, got separated from her partner while walking the dog, has dementia, Mt Baker Natl Forest, Kendall, 10 Mar 2023

  • #21
Exactly. A walk in the wilderness sounds a bit risk-prone in the first place. But to lose sight of her in that environment is a little negligent. People with dementia can often be like young children - and they often need looking after like young children too.

Yes. This. Four hours is unthinkable! Why would you not call 911 within 20-30 mins of looking around yourself?

Some older people don't use cell phones. Her partner might have phoned at the first opportunity. We don't know the details yet. Her partner may have been lost for some time too. "Stay right here dear, while I look around and see if I can find the trail back."
jmo
 
  • #22
Some older people don't use cell phones. Her partner might have phoned at the first opportunity. We don't know the details yet. Her partner may have been lost for some time too. "Stay right here dear, while I look around and see if I can find the trail back."
jmo
I agree, or they may have been in a place that had little or no cell service, or maybe the delay was because he was looking for her, and took a while to return.
 
  • #23
I can't seem to find out who the last person to see her was...

Was she seen by anyone other than her partner that day?

This case is so concerning. I sure hope they find her alive and well, and soon.
 
  • #24
Whaaaaat? They've stopped searching for her already?!
They don't give you long. Just 3 days. Oh my. It doesn't sound enough.
In the article you are reading from:

...the official ground search has been suspended, subsequent searches may be conducted.

The official GROUND search has been suspended. That doesn't mean all SAR operations are suspended.

A 4-day search would not be at all unusual, either because their is high risk to searchers (e.g. snow) or conditions are impossible (e.g. fog). They may have decided the search area is too big to continue a ground search. Also, I would guess we're likely looking at recovery, not rescue, at this time, because of on-the-ground conditions and because that is SAR experience with an Alzheimer's patient: once they go missing outdoors, they tend to expire very quickly.

I make it a habit to trust SAR's process. Searches are scientifically-based, according to "lost person behavior" models, and they cannot risk their members' safety. If they could do something, they would.

This is a Silver Alert, not a "missing hiker" posting, even though JA might have gone missing in the woods. Big difference.

LE searches for "Silver Alerts" aren't the same as for non-suffering missing adults in urban environments (or for Amber Alerts, for that matter), either.

Note that the algorithms for searching for a person with Alzheimers are very different than for hikers without. E.g. they are prone to running off, may try to hide, may be unused to monitoring hydration and food needs, are likely prone to wandering and losing orientation, etc. IMO it would be more informative to compare this search with other searches for "silver alerts", than to a search for an able-minded hiker.

Here's a picture of a few ways these searches are different:

The way police conducted their search changed, too. The mindset and the behavior of a dementia patient are different compared with other missing persons. “Alzheimer’s patients can wander up to 10 miles and don’t stop for rest breaks, bathroom breaks, hydration," said Bowers. "They’ll just keep going.”

It’s not clear why they wander. Often they start on a routine task, but at some point they become disoriented and they’re not able to recognize familiar surroundings. Bowers said it’s as if they’re on a mission, and they will keep going until they’re satisfied. Sometimes they’ll go to ground, or hide in areas with thick vegetation or near bodies of water, much like children might do. Often they veer in the direction of their dominant hand.


 
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  • #25
Some older people don't use cell phones. Her partner might have phoned at the first opportunity. We don't know the details yet. Her partner may have been lost for some time too. "Stay right here dear, while I look around and see if I can find the trail back."
jmo
No, no caregiver of a person with dementia would do that. The person with dementia can forget they were supposed to stay, like in a split second. They can have a bout of confusion, panic and start walking in a random direction. The partner of a person with dementia would know that perfectly well.
 
  • #26
In the article you are reading from:

...the official ground search has been suspended, subsequent searches may be conducted.

The official GROUND search has been suspended. That doesn't mean all SAR operations are suspended.

A 4-day search would not be at all unusual, either because their is high risk to searchers (e.g. snow) or conditions are impossible (e.g. fog). They may have decided the search area is too big to continue a ground search. Also, I would guess we're likely looking at recovery, not rescue, at this time, because of on-the-ground conditions and because that is SAR experience with an Alzheimer's patient: once they go missing outdoors, they tend to expire very quickly.

I make it a habit to trust SAR's process. Searches are scientifically-based, according to "lost person behavior" models, and they cannot risk their members' safety. If they could do something, they would.

This is a Silver Alert, not a "missing hiker" posting, even though JA might have gone missing in the woods. Big difference.

LE searches for "Silver Alerts" aren't the same as for non-suffering missing adults in urban environments (or for Amber Alerts, for that matter), either.

Note that the algorithms for searching for a person with Alzheimers are very different than for hikers without. E.g. they are prone to running off, may try to hide, may be unused to monitoring hydration and food needs, are likely prone to wandering and losing orientation, etc. IMO it would be more informative to compare this search with other searches for "silver alerts", than to a search for an able-minded hiker.

Here's a picture of a few ways these searches are different:

The way police conducted their search changed, too. The mindset and the behavior of a dementia patient are different compared with other missing persons. “Alzheimer’s patients can wander up to 10 miles and don’t stop for rest breaks, bathroom breaks, hydration," said Bowers. "They’ll just keep going.”

It’s not clear why they wander. Often they start on a routine task, but at some point they become disoriented and they’re not able to recognize familiar surroundings. Bowers said it’s as if they’re on a mission, and they will keep going until they’re satisfied. Sometimes they’ll go to ground, or hide in areas with thick vegetation or near bodies of water, much like children might do. Often they veer in the direction of their dominant hand.


Very informative and relevant article. Thank you for sharing the link with us.

This case strikes an emotional chord for me I think because I am the same age as Julie. So far, I am ok cognitively, though. But, my father, who passed away recently, had dementia. It’s such a sad, cruel disorder.
 
  • #27
Her partner may have been lost for some time too. "Stay right here dear, while I look around and see if I can find the trail back."
jmo
No, that can never happen.
Because "Stay here, while I ...." would not be a fair or rational command for someone with dementia.
Staying there isn't possible when you don't know where 'there' is or even why you're there.
 
  • #28
The investigation continues today, Monday, March 13. No foul play is suspected at this time.Another alert was sent out to a wider audience on Monday, March 13 again asking residents to check yards, sheds and outbuildings. While the official ground search has been suspended, subsequent searches may be conducted.

Snipped from LE STATEMENT in @WingsOverTX post.

This is an example of how a Silver Alert search might be different from searching for an able-minded person. An able-minded person would go to a house and knock on the door, rather than settle into a shed in someone’s yard.

IIRC a toddler went missing recently for several days and slept in a mower bag in a shed.
 
  • #29
No, that can never happen.
Because "Stay here, while I ...." would not be a fair or rational command for someone with dementia.
Staying there isn't possible when you don't know where 'there' is or even why you're there.

This was just intended as one explanation out of many possibilities for why we ought not to begin accusing the partner yet. It was not intended to be taken literally or as a fact.

However, when it comes to human behaviour, one can never say, "that can never happen".
 
  • #30
Is that her partner in the photo?
 
  • #31
  • #32
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  • #33
Her FB page, but not much information:

 
  • #34
IMHO I personally do not have a family member suffering from the horrible disease of dementia. However, I have watched many friends deal with family members at different stages of dementia. I am by NO means saying her partner did anything BUT waiting that long before contacting authorities seems off. The partner may not know how to deal with her situation well. It is probably not an easy task to watch out for Julie. Why, where, and how they got separated probably will spell it out a bit better. No accusations but cover all the bases.
 
  • #35
Her sister is posting a lot about her. Everyone is completely heartbroken that they have called off the search.
 
  • #36
Another thing that hasn’t been specifically addressed (that I’m aware of) is the whereabouts of the dog. Did the partner come home with the dog, or is the dog with Julie? If with Julie, I’d think it could be a help, IF the dog was not infirm or impaired as well ( I had a dog that was blind and had dementia, if you can believe it! :() A dog might bark and alert rescuers.
 
  • #37
I've noticed this being a trend here in a lot of recent MP cases - only looking for a few days. Not a fan of it.
I don’t wish to be dark, but I have extensive outdoor experience in these conditions. Although actual boots-on-the-ground experience would not be necessary to speculate about the reality.

The low last night was at best 31 degrees F and in some areas windchill to 15 degrees F (-9 C). It is not survivable for 3 damp nights with her reported clothing and no supplies for shelter or heat. They are scaling back a rescue mission, but that does not mean people won’t continue to try to bring her home for months or years, if necessary.

I am so very sad to type those words. I hope she is somehow sheltered and confused inside an abandoned home or something and her outcome is good. Jmo

ETA: While I was typing, @RickshawFan posted much more thorough info than I! Great post.
 
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  • #38
I don’t wish to be dark, but I have extensive outdoor experience in these conditions. Although actual boots-on-the-ground experience would not be necessary to speculate about the reality.

The low last night was at best 31 degrees F and in some areas windchill to 15 degrees F (-9 C). It is not survivable for 3 damp nights with her reported clothing and no supplies for shelter or heat. They are scaling back a rescue mission, but that does not mean people won’t continue to try to bring her home for months or years, if necessary.

I am so very sad to type those words. I hope she is somehow sheltered and confused inside an abandoned home or something and her outcome is good. Jmo

ETA: While I was typing, @RickshawFan posted much more thorough info than I! Great post.
So well written. I, too, am very sad to see this kind of thing happen. I've also been around folks with dementia, including in wild areas.

Also, while some folks may believe a 4-day ground search is too limited, SAR has to be pragmatic with their resources. They cannot risk their own, and they have to triage how to allocate them. They have to have a chance of success, whatever the mission, whether rescue or recovery.

When SAR terminates the formal ground search, this also gives leave to local informal volunteers to pitch in and do their own looking. This may actually be an advantage in a Silver Alert case, since it can put hundreds of boots on the ground, and may be available to search atypical places.

We also don't know if JA has gone missing before, and where she went. History may have factored into SAR decisions.
 
  • #39
  • #40
No, I don't believe it is, based on social media. JMO.

I agree with you. Her partner has social media and appears to be approximately the same age as Julie. MOO
 

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