WA WA - Samantha Sayers, 28, Vesper Peak, North Cascades, 1 August 2018

[i'm someone]

I took a quick look at her website- her “job” (“” because I don’t know if she considers it a job, but it appears to be her main focus) is focused on survival skills, so she would and should know how to survive on the bare minimum, or improvise with items found in nature. For most, survival skills are learned, through a variety of wilderness courses. If someone is lost in a very supportive natural environment- eg plenty of berries/fruit, water, warm environment, easy shelter- their chances of survival would increase.

I have a friend who teaches wilderness skill classes designed for children, and there are several organizations in my region who offer a variety of adult level classes. These are a great tool for anyone who spends time in the woods, solo or not.

We have several of the best items available here for Sam: She was a experienced hiker, so I would hope she had basic training for that to be the case. She had food, berries, water and could easily make a shelter or lean to if lost in the woods and was uninjured. Injured makes it more difficult, injured and down in a rocky area with no wood or cave, less so. Injured, unconscious and wet/cold even worse. But we don't have any way of knowing any of it. So lack of evidence not being evidence, for all we know she packed out of the entire area. Maybe with a head injury or amnesia. Or she was lured away. Or she somehow fell off the mountain and left no sign of it. I just hope it doesn't drag out for months, for her family's sake.

 

[sasha17]

All valid points you make. So many unknowns. What was reported though is that she was supposed to be back down and to call her birfriend by 6pm. When she didn’t call, he immediately went there and began searching himself, even after dark with a flashlight continuing up the trail. In early August, it wouldn’t have been dark Until what, maybe 8pm?. So I can’t figure how she would have arrived back to her car after dark in this case without his seeing her. . Your scenario could be a possibility before 6pm for sure. Betting most hikers would be off the mountain by then. Were there any other cars at the trailhead at the end of the day, I’m wondering? Jmo

I don't have the link right at hand but in one of the news articles, he said he didn't get the phone call at 6:00 as expected but waited until 7:00 or 7:15 before he left the apartment to drive up there. Google Maps says it's 1 hour and 46 minutes from their apartment neighborhood to the trailhead, assuming no traffic. He also says he stopped at a gas station first. The earliest he could have arrived there would be about 8:55PM, assuming he left at 7:00, spent about 9 minutes at the gas station, and there was no traffic. On August 1, the sunset in Seattle was 8:43PM. It would have definitely been dark when he arrived at the trailhead. If she came down (in the dark or while it was still light) and arrived at the trailhead any time before about 8:55, he would have missed her.

 

[sasha17]

Another thing to note for the timeline: Sam was supposed to call Kevin at about 6:00PM. There's no cell phone signal anywhere up the highway near the trailhead area. For my phone and my brother's phone (we have Google Fi and Verizon), we don't have any cell signal until arriving just before the town of Granite Falls, which is the first town you come to on the highway after you head down from the trailhead. When I've gone up with friends with other phone carriers, it's the same thing. Google Maps says it's 51 minutes from the trailhead to the spot on the highway where our cell signals come back. Assuming Sam was supposed to make the call at 6:00PM, she would have had to plan to be back near Granite Falls by that time, meaning she planned to be at the trailhead and driving down shortly after 5:00PM. If she hiked down on time but met a bad fate in the parking lot of the trailhead, there's a wide window between 5:00PM and Kevin arriving at about 8:55PM.

 

[Marknatm]

That's very interesting. If she made it to the summit by 3pm is it realistic to get back to the car by 5pm in order to place the 6pm phone call?
If it's not realistic that might suggest having to hurry down leading to a potential accident on a snow or scree field! Could she have tried to glissade down to save time and end up getting injured?
All possible scenarios. STILL, is a 2 hour descent realistic?

 

[kgreg2529]

I don't have the link right at hand but in one of the news articles, he said he didn't get the phone call at 6:00 as expected but waited until 7:00 or 7:15 before he left the apartment to drive up there. Google Maps says it's 1 hour and 46 minutes from their apartment neighborhood to the trailhead, assuming no traffic. He also says he stopped at a gas station first. The earliest he could have arrived there would be about 8:55PM, assuming he left at 7:00, spent about 9 minutes at the gas station, and there was no traffic. On August 1, the sunset in Seattle was 8:43PM. It would have definitely been dark when he arrived at the trailhead. If she came down (in the dark or while it was still light) and arrived at the trailhead any time before about 8:55, he would have missed her.

Gosh, wouldn’t it be awful if something like an abduction happened and he missed her by mere minutes?

 

[carbuff]

While that seems quite likely, that also seems like the scenario that's most likely to have left visible traces.

 

[sasha17]

That's very interesting. If she made it to the summit by 3pm is it realistic to get back to the car by 5pm in order to place the 6pm phone call?
If it's not realistic that might suggest having to hurry down leading to a potential accident on a snow or scree field! Could she have tried to glissade down to save time and end up getting injured?
All possible scenarios. STILL, is a 2 hour descent realistic?

It's an 8 mile roundtrip (out and back) trail: Vesper Peak — Washington Trails Association

I think it's realistic that she could have hiked 4 miles (downhill) in about 2 hours. JMO. That's not to say she wasn't rushed coming downhill or trying to hurry. If she was concerned about the time and wanted to be sure to be able to make the 6:00PM phone call, she could have definitely still been rushing.

 

[Sonji727]

I am from Erie, PA which is close to where Sam's Mom lives so this story has been circulating in my social circles since early August. I absolutely think that abduction is an option. I have seen many comments in this thread that suggest the trail is too populated, but as people have said above, I am not sure there is a lot of activity there in the early evening hours, and additionally, people have certainly went missing in even more populated areas so this to me still seems very realistic. How sad it would be if this enormous effort has went into a mountain search and she was 15 miles northeast somewhere. The 3rd ping still bothers me and I feel I would've had to look into it more if I were more involved in the situation, even if just a 1-3 day search--something. With no sign of her anywhere on that mountain, it is time to consider some of these things more, I feel. It is quite possible that someone did follow her to the trail head, she traveled lite and I think someone could've shoved the stuff she did had in their trunk, etc if that is the scenario (I know some feel there would be a trace of her belongings if abduction is the culprit but that is not always the case).
I obviously hope that she did not suffer a fate such as this, but I really am starting to think she is no longer on that mountain.

 

[PNWHikerNurse]

I've been following the story from the beginning also. There were reports early on that she was sighted a couple hours away after she went missing. The report(s?) were discounted immediately because it was "too far". IIRC it was near Puyallup. I don't remember how soon it was after she was missing but with it being over 40 days now and no signs still, I hope the sheriff did look into that lead - even if everyone was discounting it publicly.

 

[ees]

It's an 8 mile roundtrip (out and back) trail: Vesper Peak — Washington Trails Association

I think it's realistic that she could have hiked 4 miles (downhill) in about 2 hours. JMO. That's not to say she wasn't rushed coming downhill or trying to hurry. If she was concerned about the time and wanted to be sure to be able to make the 6:00PM phone call, she could have definitely still been rushing.

For someone her age, 4 miles in ~2 hours should be doable. That said, downhill is usually the more technically difficult part of a hike. It’s harder to fall uphill, so if footing is sketchy and terrain requires scrambling, that slows things down. Add in probably tired legs from the climb up... I fall more going downhill; thankfully just on dirt trails so far.

When I give someone my “I’ll call by X time” for hikes, I take into account when I’ll have cell service. I give a detailed estimate- ex.: “I should summit between X-X, be back at my car between X-X, and I won’t have service for at least 45 min.” Sometimes it’s good to be obsessive...

 

[sasha17]

I've been following the story from the beginning also. There were reports early on that she was sighted a couple hours away after she went missing. The report(s?) were discounted immediately because it was "too far". IIRC it was near Puyallup. I don't remember how soon it was after she was missing but with it being over 40 days now and no signs still, I hope the sheriff did look into that lead - even if everyone was discounting it publicly.

I don't remember hearing this before. Do you have a link to the reports/news stories that had that bit of information?

 

[Sleuthing101]

I haven’t been following the story since the very beginning, so forgive me if these questions/scenarios have been proposed or discussed. And although I’ve hiked in Washington state, I’m not familiar with Vesper Peak.

With that said, is it a possibility that she could have come off the mountain from the south (as a witness stated he saw her heading in that direction)? Is there a possibility she was not intending to head east, and back to the trailhead/car? Are there other outlets or trails to get on? Is voluntary disappearance a potential? Does anything is Samantha’s past/ present suggest she planned this? Could there be a chance that she “hid” extra clothing/ gear up on the mountain, maybe on a previous trip in order to survive the wilderness for a few days or for an escape?

This all may seem like a stretch but perhaps she did intentionally leave with someone or on her own. Was the family able to obtain a history of her texts/calls/emails or is this a substantial undertaking which involves court orders and/or a criminal case to be opened? Although I truly believe she likely had an accident or fall on the mountain & is buried up there, I have seriously considered that she may have wanted to disappear.

In any case, it doesn’t sound like the family is going to rest until her body is found one way or another. My heart does break for the family, as this is one of the oddest disappearances I’ve read about.

 

[sasha17]

It looks like my time estimates were off when I was thinking earlier about what time Kevin would have arrived at the trailhead and whether he would have been there when she hiked down to the parking lot area.

I just re-read this article from NBC News with a quote from Kevin: "By 7:00 or 7:15 p.m., I was on the road... I hit the mountain around 10:00 p.m. I didn’t have any gear with me: It was a sad state of affairs,” Kevin said."
Seattle woman still missing after not returning from hike nearly three weeks ago

So there must have been a lot traffic (??) or he mispoke about his times quoted in the news article (or the article author wrote them down them wrong) because there's an extra hour in there. If he didn't arrive at the trailhead until 10:00PM and Sam was expected to be at the trailhead at 5:00PM, that's a 5 hour window where something could have happened at the parking lot.

 

[PNWHikerNurse]

I don't remember hearing this before. Do you have a link to the reports/news stories that had that bit of information?

I will go check on the pages and try to dig that part up - it wasn't news stories that I saw, it was people who were posting that other people were reporting it. I am still new here so I don't want to violate TOS accidentally but I'll see what I can do about directing y'all to what I'm referring to.

 

[PNWHikerNurse]

Oh that was fast. In the #FindSamSayers group, there's a post from her fiancé on August 12th at 12:58am and in the comments there is one from someone saying that a man said he saw her on Canyon Rd. in Puyallup. I know I saw it talked about more than once though - if you search the group for a variation of "sighting" or "seen" and puyallup or anything like that you'd probably find more. I'm going to also - but for instance there was another one that I saw but it was on his personal page and I think I read that we can't talk about the personal pages right?

 

[i'm someone]

I haven’t been following the story since the very beginning, so forgive me if these questions/scenarios have been proposed or discussed. And although I’ve hiked in Washington state, I’m not familiar with Vesper Peak.

With that said, is it a possibility that she could have come off the mountain from the south (as a witness stated he saw her heading in that direction)? Is there a possibility she was not intending to head east, and back to the trailhead/car? Are there other outlets or trails to get on? Is voluntary disappearance a potential? Does anything is Samantha’s past/ present suggest she planned this? Could there be a chance that she “hid” extra clothing/ gear up on the mountain, maybe on a previous trip in order to survive the wilderness for a few days or for an escape?

This all may seem like a stretch but perhaps she did intentionally leave with someone or on her own. Was the family able to obtain a history of her texts/calls/emails or is this a substantial undertaking which involves court orders and/or a criminal case to be opened? Although I truly believe she likely had an accident or fall on the mountain & is buried up there, I have seriously considered that she may have wanted to disappear.

respectfully snipped for space

All of this is still on the table, imo. I suggested it early on in the investigation and was immediately shut down by the family(of course she didn't leave the mountain, she's on the mountain). The one video another hiker caught of her ascending I truly felt she might have been with the person/persons ahead of her, who were much more heavily packed. All of these theories were discarded in the beginning, although the mom says they are investigating all possibilities. It's like there is a huge batch of info that's not being shared, and it creates this huge void when looking at the case from the outside.

 

[zecats]

While that seems quite likely, that also seems like the scenario that's most likely to have left visible traces.

Which scenario?

 

[zecats]

For someone her age, 4 miles in ~2 hours should be doable. That said, downhill is usually the more technically difficult part of a hike. It’s harder to fall uphill, so if footing is sketchy and terrain requires scrambling, that slows things down. Add in probably tired legs from the climb up... I fall more going downhill; thankfully just on dirt trails so far.

When I give someone my “I’ll call by X time” for hikes, I take into account when I’ll have cell service. I give a detailed estimate- ex.: “I should summit between X-X, be back at my car between X-X, and I won’t have service for at least 45 min.” Sometimes it’s good to be obsessive...

Exactly. Going downhill often takes me longer than uphill. She had hiking poles to maneuver as well. You don’t have the use of your hands when scrambling downhill either as you do going up. I have fallen and slid several times on my derrière on slippery down slopes (loose rock, loose dirt, damp areas) or just steep areas so I’m usually extra cautious then.

 

[i'm someone]

OK, in perusing the findsamsayers FB, I see that a squirrel was responded to regarding some aspect of the case that resulted in KD saying basically the family is not able to investigate or create a crime stoppers flier or anything else that goes in the direction of foul play because LE have stated this is clearly and strictly a missing hiker investigation. So maybe it's not just theories being shot down because of a loved one's denial of the issues, but because they can't even officially entertain the idea. I had no idea LE could prevent the family or others from investigating in the foul play direction. If so, that needs to change ASAP. Perhaps this is the "change needed" in procedure the mom was indicating.....

 

[sasha17]

OK, in perusing the findsamsayers FB, I see that a squirrel was responded to regarding some aspect of the case that resulted in KD saying basically the family is not able to investigate or create a crime stoppers flier or anything else that goes in the direction of foul play because LE have stated this is clearly and strictly a missing hiker investigation. So maybe it's not just theories being shot down because of a loved one's denial of the issues, but because they can't even officially entertain the idea. I had no idea LE could prevent the family or others from investigating in the foul play direction. If so, that needs to change ASAP. Perhaps this is the "change needed" in procedure the mom was indicating.....

I don't know the rules or logistics around getting a Crime Stoppers flyer (does it require an active criminal case be open by authorities?) but even if the authorities said this was just a missing hiker and not a criminal investigation, I don't think that would prevent the family from hiring a PI, would it? Maybe one of our legal experts here can weigh in on this topic (@Alethea?). AFAIK, the family has stuck completely with the mountain search plans and hasn't said anything about hiring a PI to look into other possibilities themselves.