WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #2

[tarps]

correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember the ancestry link saying that her mom and step dad got married in 1993.

 

[Beyond Belief]

Was there any kind of moonlight?

 

[Allyne]

She met him on the internet, could someone else she met on the internet live in that area?

Good point.

Wish we could zoom in on that map.

 

[tarps]

TakeNote, Is it just me or are there an abnormal amount of missing persons around the area you live lately?

it's true. the PNW has always been a favorite of serial killers. people are too nice, and its rainy.

 

[pufnstuf]

correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember the ancestry link saying that her mom and step dad got married in 1993.

May 22, 1993.

 

[Allyne]

It's pretty much a New Moon...

 

[yosande]

So true, common sense goes out the window, when you are drunk. Your fear level is reduced. She very well could have went in the water and then he tried to help..........
__________________

To be honest, I'm finding it a tad bit offensive, and she isn't even my family.

We see her on video after video, and she isn't drunk.
The pizza people, the last ones to see her, say she did NOT appear to have been drinking.

AZ did not tell them she fell down. They noticed her rubbing her knee.

They said she was "nervous" and they assumed she was that way because she was lost.

IMO, she is a victim here, and her son is as well, and she is being made to look like a lush.

And;

the bf with the inconsistent stories, is playing the possible cancer victim, while laying lt out there that she is a relapsed alcoholic.

Why would he even lay that out there?
I'm gonna guess and call it redirectioning the focus away from him.......
moo

If she bought some wine, and I do mean if, as we haven't seen her do that on video yet, she was going to visit someone she hadn't seen in several years according to RS. She may have bought it as a gift, especially if is was a nice wine, not a gallon jug of anne green springs or whatever.....

all moo........

rant over...

 

[sorrell skye]

Low Tide: 10:37 PM 1.7 ft.

High Tide: 6:09 AM 14.1 ft.

Water reached the top of the seats at high tide.

Thanks Puf for that tide info! I was looking it up as you were posting it.

Tides for Budd Inlet, Olympia Shoal starting with March 12, 2010.

Day High Tide Height Sunrise Moon Time % Moon
/Low Time Feet Sunset Visible

F 12 High 4:34 AM 13.9 6:30 AM Rise 5:03 AM 13
12 Low 10:39 AM 5.7 6:13 PM Set 3:23 PM
12 High 3:26 PM 11.9
12 Low 10:01 PM 1.4

Sa 13 High 4:53 AM 14.1 6:28 AM Rise 5:22 AM 7
13 Low 11:03 AM 5.0 6:14 PM Set 4:27 PM
13 High 4:11 PM 12.3
13 Low 10:37 PM 1.7

Su 14 High 6:08 AM 14.2 7:26 AM Rise 6:40 AM 3
14 Low 12:25 PM 4.1 7:16 PM Set 6:32 PM
14 High 5:53 PM 12.6


http://www.saltwatertides.com/cgi-local/washington.cgi


It looks like it was a pretty dark night - moon visibility at 3%.

 

[Beyond Belief]

The rear of van being open is very strange. Could a boat, like a blow up boat be launched on this body of water and they paddle to an area where they could camp or hide if they wanted too.
Just how educated was she about wilderness survival and was this an interest she developed recently and did she absorb herself in the subject?

Have her credit cards been checked to see what type of things, like a tent, etc. have been bought recently and are they missing.

Were any of her recent actions those of someone planning to leave. Paying bills ahead of time, giving away a pet, storing important papers, possessions, etc.

 

[90Nine]

Thanks Puf for that tide info! I was looking it up as you were posting it.

Tides for Budd Inlet, Olympia Shoal starting with March 12, 2010.

Day High Tide Height Sunrise Moon Time % Moon
/Low Time Feet Sunset Visible

F 12 High 4:34 AM 13.9 6:30 AM Rise 5:03 AM 13
12 Low 10:39 AM 5.7 6:13 PM Set 3:23 PM
12 High 3:26 PM 11.9
12 Low 10:01 PM 1.4

Sa 13 High 4:53 AM 14.1 6:28 AM Rise 5:22 AM 7
13 Low 11:03 AM 5.0 6:14 PM Set 4:27 PM
13 High 4:11 PM 12.3
13 Low 10:37 PM 1.7

Su 14 High 6:08 AM 14.2 7:26 AM Rise 6:40 AM 3
14 Low 12:25 PM 4.1 7:16 PM Set 6:32 PM
14 High 5:53 PM 12.6


http://www.saltwatertides.com/cgi-local/washington.cgi


It looks like it was a pretty dark night - moon visibility at 3%.

It must have been so dark and she must have been so upset that she drove right into the water without actually seeing it.

Could she have opened the side doors okay with that tide?

It really doesn't seem like they could have gotten pulled into the water with that low of a tide.

Also, if the people are right and she was banging on their door at 1am then she was away from the water...

 

[yosande]

The van: Its the boyfriends isn't it? Doesn't she have a car? She met him on the internet, could someone else she met on the internet live in that area?

exactly, being engaged, for 2 and a half years according to him, the myspace puts them together for one year, and she is going to school.

She finishes school, and is proud of herself. I'm ok with that.

How did she get to school and back?

She didn't own an auto of her own?

AND;

if they are engaged, especially since last week, why did he say she borrowed his van?

Wouldn't it be "their" van?

 

[pufnstuf]

it's true. the PNW has always been a favorite of serial killers. people are too nice, and its rainy.

Washington has more serial killers than any other state, if I recall correctly.

This is a must-see graphic (PDF) that the SeattlePI did on serial killers in 2003. Even obscure ones are listed. VERY interesting read--worth the time to download.

http://www.seattlepi.com/dayart/pdf/20030220serialkillers.pdf

 

[mayelf]

My parents still have their own vehicles and they have been married for 30 years or something crazy.

 

[tarps]

Good observations about the wipers. Iirc the person that discovered the van said the rear of the van was in the water.

all of the inlets in Olympia are basically tidal flats, it could have just been tidal pools splashing. But that mud on her wind shield looks pretty intense. . . I dunno

 

[90Nine]

I zoomed in on the area the van was found. The private road she was on the took her down to the beach is Zangle. It drops right into Fish Trap.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&sou...35,-122.877295&spn=0.006713,0.016973&t=h&z=16

Here is a closer shot of the neighborhood and where she drove down to the end of the road and right into the beach...

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&sou...3763,-122.8773&spn=0.000839,0.002122&t=h&z=19

She was about 10-15 miles from I-5. Here are the directions back to the freeway

I measured the diastances and it's about no more than 200 feet from the end of the road to the waterline.

The house that she had to have seen right before she went down the very narrow wooded part is only about 300 feet from the end of road. The path is only about 200 feet or so. It's all very close.

And, if she decided to walk along the beach instead of going back up the road, there are houses right there.

And one more very important thing...she had to have gotten out of the car and walked away because she took her purse and their overnight bag with her.

On that note, I am going to bed I'll pray we have good news tomorrow.

 

[sorrell skye]

http://www.kirotv.com/news/22859850/detail.html

Snipped from the article:

Inside the van, investigators found children's coloring books, car keys and miscellaneous items, but nothing that can direct them to the whereabouts of Smiley and her son.



Didn't anther article say the doors to the van were open? If true, it's hard to imagine that items like coloring books wouldn't have washed away when the tide rose, especially since the same article linked above says:

"It also appears the water went no higher than the top of the seats."

Heavy items would sink, possibly, but coloring books would have floated & would have been swept away as the waves of the tide rushed in & out of the van. Yet, there they were, found inside the van.

 

[Beyond Belief]

I am trying to picture being in a stuck van, deciding to stay put til morning. so you finally fall asleep to wake up to being several feet deep in cold water. Scared to death in the pitch dark surrounded by water. You get out and start moving toward what you think is shallower water, but you go the wrong way. What kind of drop off is there? Did one get in trouble and the other try to help?

 

[yosande]

The rear of van being open is very strange. Could a boat, like a blow up boat be launched on this body of water and they paddle to an area where they could camp or hide if they wanted too.
Just how educated was she about wilderness survival and was this an interest she developed recently and did she absorb herself in the subject?

Have her credit cards been checked to see what type of things, like a tent, etc. have been bought recently and are they missing.

Were any of her recent actions those of someone planning to leave. Paying bills ahead of time, giving away a pet, storing important papers, possessions, etc.

Good questions.

She had so many easy ways to get back on the freeway, that it really appears she didn't want to.

Then to be going back and forth across town, it appears to me she was stalling for time.

Then she calls her grandparents, and tells them she is ok.

I think it is possible she went to meet someone, like her grandparents, in a boat. A raft could have gotten them from shore or back of van, to the boat.

The only problem I would have with it is them not calling LE to tell them she was ok, and doesn't want to be found, and btw, don't tell RS.

I am thinking the it a ruse to go visit the stepfather that she hadn't seen for years, whether it was his or hers, and the other knew nothing about it.

I also have a problem with him spending an hour fixing his bike 6 minutes from destination. It sounds to me like he was stalling for time too.
Maybe he was waiting for her to show up, so they could get to the stepfather's house together.

But it is very strange that they weren't together in the same auto going to meet stepdad, it being a 2 hour drive one way and all.

Some people think that they are smart, and can fool people and LE, but LE is gonna find them out, whoever they are, and so might Mr. Carver.
moo

all moo

 

[tarps]

To be honest, I'm finding it a tad bit offensive, and she isn't even my family.

We see her on video after video, and she isn't drunk.
The pizza people, the last ones to see her, say she did NOT appear to have been drinking.

AZ did not tell them she fell down. They noticed her rubbing her knee.

They said she was "nervous" and they assumed she was that way because she was lost.

IMO, she is a victim here, and her son is as well, and she is being made to look like a lush.

And;

the bf with the inconsistent stories, is playing the possible cancer victim, while laying lt out there that she is a relapsed alcoholic.

Why would he even lay that out there?
I'm gonna guess and call it redirectioning the focus away from him.......
moo

If she bought some wine, and I do mean if, as we haven't seen her do that on video yet, she was going to visit someone she hadn't seen in several years according to RS. She may have bought it as a gift, especially if is was a nice wine, not a gallon jug of anne green springs or whatever.....

all moo........

rant over...

I am suspicious of the fiance, and offended that people are being so harsh on a victim, but there is a video of her buying a jug of wine. I don't have the link but its on the original forum.

 

[sorrell skye]

Good questions.

She had so many easy ways to get back on the freeway, that it really appears she didn't want to.

Then to be going back and forth across town, it appears to me she was stalling for time.

Then she calls her grandparents, and tells them she is ok.

I think it is possible she went to meet someone, like her grandparents, in a boat. A raft could have gotten them from shore or back of van, to the boat.

The only problem I would have with it is them not calling LE to tell them she was ok, and doesn't want to be found, and btw, don't tell RS.

I am thinking the it a ruse to go visit the stepfather that she hadn't seen for years, whether it was his or hers, and the other knew nothing about it.

I also have a problem with him spending an hour fixing his bike 6 minutes from destination. It sounds to me like he was stalling for time too.
Maybe he was waiting for her to show up, so they could get to the stepfather's house together.

But it is very strange that they weren't together in the same auto going to meet stepdad, it being a 2 hour drive one way and all.

Some people think that they are smart, and can fool people and LE, but LE is gonna find them out, whoever they are, and so might Mr. Carver.
moo

all moo

Ya know - one of my first reactions when I read about her & her son's disappearance, was that she was running/hiding from something or someone, because none of it makes sense.

I truly hope they're OK.

I need to go back & read everything again & see what I may have missed, because I find it odd that she didn't just wait for RS, rather than heading out before him, since according to him, they were both going to visit her step-family. I also find it odd that she left her cell phone behind. Maybe she's a scatter-brain about cell phones & wallets, or maybe not...

Nevertheless, balloon-boy is still fresh in my mind.