WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #3

[SMK]

The question I keep asking myself is why she didn't have the keys in the ignition. If it was so cold outside then how did they sleep in the van without the heat on. I just can't imagine that she would not have the heat on in the car for the entire time (hours) it took the tide to rise enough and to be deep enough to sweep them out into the waters.. . .

Fear of the police rapping on the window, and waking them up? If keys were in ignition, then DUI due to wine, if not, then no. Only reason I can think of, fear of police and DUI.

 

[BeanE]

The question I keep asking myself is why she didn't have the keys in the ignition. If it was so cold outside then how did they sleep in the van without the heat on. I just can't imagine that she would not have the heat on in the car for the entire time (hours) it took the tide to rise enough and to be deep enough to sweep them out into the waters.

If they made it to the beach by 11pm and the tide was at about 1.7 ft. having risen to 14 feet by 6am, leaving it to rise 12 more feet - I wish we had some way to figure out how deep the water went as the tide was rising (ie - 1am the water was 2 feet deep at the van, etc). It really seems like the water would have had to be a few feet deep to take Az. But the tide would have had to have been quite high for him to have gotten taken by the currents.

It looks like tide info can be gotten from a site like this one:
http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/tide/

Here's one for WA:
http://www.saltwatertides.com/dynamic.dir/washingtonsites.html

 

[SMK]

Still thinking about the tire tracks...if the van was parked at the water before high tide and the tide came in enough to cover the van or even just rose to the top of the seats, and then the tide went out again, wouldn't most/all of the tire tracks Shantina left be washed away by the water? If that is the case, would any of the tracks in the photographs be left over from Saturday night?

That is an interesting question: I wonder who could answer that, LE?

 

[Miss Optimism]

This is just the strangest case! If Az was carried out into the water, what do you think S's next move was? Wouldn't you think she would have tried to get to him? I just don't see how a grown woman could drown like that....does anyone know if she had experience swimming? I would think that the order of events should have been:

1. Az going into the water.
2. S. jumping in after him trying to save him, screaming for help and alerting neighbors.
3. If she was unable to save him and didn't drown herself, I would think she would have gotten out and tried to get help for him.

 

[SheWhoMustNotBeNamed]

Didn't I read that the active searching for her had stopped completely? How do they expect to find her, but by luck?

It's just not possible that every inch of shoreline on those islands can be walked, giving the chance that a random passerby will come across her body. Yes, it happened with Az, but I think that was just perfect timing. Another few hours and he could have been gone again.

 

[SMK]

This is just the strangest case! If Az was carried out into the water, what do you think S's next move was? Wouldn't you think she would have tried to get to him? I just don't see how a grown woman could drown like that....does anyone know if she had experience swimming? I would think that the order of events should have been:

1. Az going into the water.
2. S. jumping in after him trying to save him, screaming for help and alerting neighbors.
3. If she was unable to save him and didn't drown herself, I would think she would have gotten out and tried to get help for him.

But you have to remember: Groggy, cold, disoriented, sleepy, intoxicated, numb, wearing clothes, in the cold water, ferocious current, caught unaware, no time to think, unable to scream as Lt. Mealy said "it would take your breath away".

 

[floridaheather]

The question I keep asking myself is why she didn't have the keys in the ignition. If it was so cold outside then how did they sleep in the van without the heat on. I just can't imagine that she would not have the heat on in the car for the entire time (hours) it took the tide to rise enough and to be deep enough to sweep them out into the waters. But her size (height and weight) IMO would have been able to withstand the water.

If they made it to the beach by 11pm and the tide was at about 1.7 ft. having risen to 14 feet by 6am, leaving it to rise 12 more feet - I wish we had some way to figure out how deep the water went as the tide was rising (ie - 1am the water was 2 feet deep at the van, etc). It really seems like the water would have had to be a few feet deep to take Az. But the tide would have had to have been quite high for him to have gotten taken by the currents.

Do you think maybe she was low on gas, which is why she was peering in the window at the station & why she didn't run the van the whole time? I wish we knew abt how high the water was, too--if it was high enough & there was a little tide enough to loose your footing and Az couldn't swim, we know what may have happened to him.

 

[Miss Optimism]

But you have to remember: Groggy, cold, disoriented, sleepy, intoxicated, numb, wearing clothes, in the cold water, ferocious current, caught unaware, no time to think, unable to scream as Lt. Mealy said "it would take your breath away".

I guess it depends on how he was actually carried away. If she was standing on the shore, I would think she would start screaming before entering the water. But, if she was intoxicated that would be a totally different story. Her brain could have definitely been groggy and her response times delayed.

 

[Beyond Belief]

Was she unlocking the van when she came out with the bottle of wine?
If so, she was careful enough to lock it at that time.
Leaving it wide open when they bailed out of it on the beach says panic.

 

[Beyond Belief]

length of van looks like 189.1 inches
height 68.9 in

 

[SMK]

Don't you think they must have been asleep (keys out of ignition due to a. lack of gas or b. not wanting to be charged with DUI) and they awoken to cold water gushing in, surprised by the high tide, and opened the doors, only to leap into icy currents and get dragged away?

 

[sorrell skye]

http://www.saltwatertides.com/cgi-local/washington.cgi

Tides for Budd Inlet, Olympia Shoal starting with March 13, 2010.

Day High Tide Height Sunrise Moon Time % Moon
/Low Time Feet Sunset Visible

Sa 13 High 4:53 AM 14.1 6:28 AM Rise 5:22 AM 7
13 Low 11:03 AM 5.0 6:14 PM Set 4:27 PM
13 High 4:11 PM 12.3
13 Low 10:37 PM 1.7

Su 14 High 6:08 AM 14.2 7:26 AM Rise 6:40 AM 3
14 Low 12:25 PM 4.1 7:16 PM Set 6:32 PM
14 High 5:53 PM 12.6


They arrived @ the beach Sat. the 13th approx. 10:30 - 11:00 p.m.

Low tide on the 13th was approx. 10:37 p.m.

High tide came in during the night, peaking approx. 6:08 a.m. Sun. the 14th

Sunrise on Sun. the 14th was approx. 7:26 a.m. abut an hour and fifteen minutes after high tide.

 

[sorrell skye]

Also it was a waning moon, close to new, so it was pitch black out that night.

 

[redsky]

Don't you think they must have been asleep (keys out of ignition due to a. lack of gas or b. not wanting to be charged with DUI) and they awoken to cold water gushing in, surprised by the high tide, and opened the doors, only to leap into icy currents and get dragged away?

I believe this is entirely possible. But I am struggling with the fact that she found that driveway and roadway to the beach in the first place. I believe it could have been by chance but something tells me it wasn't. Surely if she wanted to get to the beach there were easier ways and easier to SEE ways.

 

[SMK]

Also it was a waning moon, close to new, so it was pitch black out that night.

Good point. That, and being awakened from sleep by cold water, would do anyone in.

 

[floridaheather]

This video gives good footage of the water, you can see how difficult it would be to navigate this cold water at night.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5B16wnF678&feature=player_embedded

The 14.2 feet high tide isn't a vertical measurement. 14.2 feet vertically would literally be a tsunami.

ETA: What I meant to say is that the high tide measurement of 14.2 feet isn't how high the water would be at the shoreline at high tide.

thank you. i was thinking, wrongly a high tide vertically. of course it would be 14.2 feet further inland.

 

[Beyond Belief]

Ohh, my first experience with a gps had me lost for 3 hours. My passenger pushed the home button and our english speaking gps guide kept telling us to turn. What a mess.

 

[RubyRed]

Also it was a waning moon, close to new, so it was pitch black out that night.

Just one more circumstance, that caused this to be the night from he$$, for Azriel. That poor little boy.

 

[Alaska4959]

I have seen people ready to take RS to task both for telling us (via the media) that Shantina was an alcoholic and also for not being forthcoming with that info at the time he reported them missing. I wonder if he withheld that info at first because he hoped that she would appear soon and he didn't want to 'air the dirty laundry' if it had no bearing on her disappearance. Then, when time passed and she didn't appear, he decided her alcoholism MAY have played a part in them being missing, and felt it was time to talk about it. I am in no way defending him, just got to thinking that if my hubby was supposed to meet me somewhere and didn't show up we would both be horribly embarassed if I immediately told the media he was an alcoholic and then found out he just got sidetracked or that he got drunk and was sleeping it off somewhere or even that he may be with someone else. If he were gone for more than a day, I may start thinking the alcoholism info may be important to share with police but would probably wait another day or two before I told anyone else.

I would also like to add my two cents to the discussion about the wine tasting trip. I will start by saying that I AM a recovering alcoholic. I have been sober for 17 years now. Six of the last 17 years I worked as a bartender. At no time did my job threaten my sobriety because I was and still am totally committed to staying sober. For three of those years I also played designated driver for my bowling team and the trip home always included a stop for pizza and beer (tea for me, lots of beer and wine for the rest of the team). During the first six years of my sobriety I lost both of my parents to cancer and my sister died suddenly as well. My husband drinks daily because he is sick and tired of being sick and tired and thinks he is going to die soon anyway (Hep C from an Army tattoo, diabetes, never fully recovered from the stroke he had in 2008, etc.) so is consciously drinking to get it over with (he has admitted it more than once). None of this has made me want to drink. So, as you can see, I do know a thing or two about alcoholics, recovering and otherwise.

Anyway, what I wanted to point out is that we all deal with our addictions differently. I would think nothing of visiting a vineyard with a friend, I may even suggest it if we were going to be in the area because I have never been before. Shantina may have willingly gone or even suggested going because she did not want her addiction to affect him to the point of making him shy away from things he was interested in. She may have wanted to share in some of the things that interested him as a way of growing closer and learning more about him. RS may not be your idea of the perfect catch but until/unless we hear the rest of the story I am not ready to say he was wrong for taking her where alcohol is served.
---------
Jeez, sorry I took up half this post with my own story...just wanted to show a recovery with different results.

 

[Miss Optimism]

The model they have said it comes with navigation system... :-\

What??? That is very suspicious! I'm sure after all this time having that vehicle, she would have figured the GPS out. It seems like maybe she was trying to pass the time and keep her son occupied and didn't have her phone with her because she didn't want to be found? Soooo odd. I am now really convinced that she was not in the right frame of mind that night!