what's the case against FDI?

[Lebowski]

(Friend Did It)

hi there, still coming up to speed on this case. my views are mostly hovering near PDI or BDI (with P or both parents staging...).

at the moment, i'm considering the possibility of IDI, but someone the ramseys knew. and i'm asking (honestly, not rhetorically) what's wrong with that theory? i get that it may not be specifically supported by any evidence, but i'm wondering if anything rules it out.

i understand that the DNA evidence cited by IDI people is unreliable to the point of being meaningless. ... i also agree the ransom note points to someone who knew john but was not john himself. there's no way that note was written by a stranger (or the 9yo B, for that matter). but P is not the only one who fits (edit: i don't give much weight to most of the handwriting or psychoanalysis evidence, just the revealed inside information and obvious insincerity of the note). a friend or acquaintance may have known the bonus amount, known the fat cats thing, and may have known their way around the house. (though i admit, even for a friend, it seems like high-risk behavior to linger for a long time after the killing and to visit all four floors of the house retrieving various things. maybe that's where this theory runs into trouble...). ... a friend might also have known the dog was with a neighbor and maybe even that the alarm was off.

here's an important point, and someone please tell me if i have this wrong. my understanding is that the police did not take an accounting of which doors were locked or unlocked when they first got there (or at least that it hasn't been made public whether they did). and the ramseys say they were inconsistent about keeping everything locked. even if you don't take their word for it, it's a common thing, especially in houses with kids. so for all we know, the front door or kitchen side door may have been unlocked during the party and/or after bedtime. even if the doors were all locked, iirc, one of the doors had a key under the mat, which a friend might have known about. and if all this is true, then all the debating about the basement window would be a red herring. right? the perp could have walked right in the front door. ......... am i missing something?

why the RN and staging? they may not serve a logical purpose as they do under RDI theories, but AIUI it's not unknown for certain kinds of offenders to taunt and mess with the victim's families (could explain RN), and to stage the bodies for their own weird symbolic reasons (could explain staging).

 

[Lebowski]

(disguises voice)

i'll be glad to answer you, Lebowski. you raise several important points. indeed, the lack of accounting for which doors were and weren't locked is a major source of uncertainty, and, like the severely compromised crime scene and generally botched investigation, casts a fog of doubt that makes it hard to draw firm conclusions in this case.

while there isn't any hard disproof of friend-did-it (or, more broadly, acquaintance-did-it), it still runs into a number of major problems that leave it less likely than RDI theories. investigators took a close look at a long list of people known to the ramseys from all areas of their life, and never found a viable suspect. also, the points you acknowledge: lingering a long time in the house writing the note, bothering to put away the pen and paper, and visiting all floors of the house are all unexpected behaviors even for an intruder that was known to the ramseys.

then there's the point that the note and crime scene both show clear attempts at deception, and contradict each other (why wasn't the body taken?), and the only point of commonality between them is that they were apparently intended to look like the work an intruder. perp trying to trick us + "i'm an intruder!" = evidence against intruder.

lastly, as you acknowledge, there is no actual evidence for an intruder. let's not lose sight of that! there are three other people known to have been in the house that night, and they're all ramseys. we get to assume their presence for free. the presence of anyone else is conjecture that requires evidence. and it is supported only by a ransom note absolutely no one takes at face value and touch DNA samples that are probably worthless due to the potential for contamination and transfer.

but it's good to do this exercise of thinking through alternate possibilities, so we can be more certain the conclusions we settle on are right.

 

[proust20]

How did the Friend arrive at and depart from the R residence? At what time was the break in? How did the Friend manage to avoid being noticed?

How did the Friend know when the Rs were at the Whites', that Jacques was at a neighbors' and that the home security system was not operating?

The Friend would also have to be aware of the 118k, and that there were size 12 Bloomis and where to find them.

For some reason, after striking JonBenet over the head, the Friend chose to linger 40+ min. before using the ligature made with Patsy's brush. The Friend also took extra time to find the white blanket and Barbie nightgown.

 

[Lebowski]

How did the Friend arrive at and depart from the R residence? At what time was the break in? How did the Friend manage to avoid being noticed?

...

thanks for the reply!

i don't have a specific theory for any of those. but none of them strikes me as a show-stopper.

why not, e.g.:
- on foot
- while the ramseys were at the party
- by acting casually outside the house and hiding when inside it

one thing i should say here is that i lean against the possibility of a break-in through a window or whatever. from what i understand of the facts, i think it's more likely someone walked right in one of the possibly unlocked doors. iiuc, they kept a key to one door under the door mat. a friend might have known that.

...

How did the Friend know when the Rs were at the Whites', that Jacques was at a neighbors' and that the home security system was not operating?

The Friend would also have to be aware of the 118k, and that there were size 12 Bloomis and where to find them.

...

i don't think it's far-fetched for a friend to have known any of those things except probably where to find the size 12 bloomies. however, for a friend to have known all of them does require several stars to align.

...

For some reason, after striking JonBenet over the head, the Friend chose to linger 40+ min. before using the ligature made with Patsy's brush. The Friend also took extra time to find the white blanket and Barbie nightgown.

and visited all floors of the house. successfully locating several things. in the dark. all without making enough noise to be noticed.

and spent a long time writing multiple drafts of a fake ransom letter. a letter that ultimately would have served no purpose except to make it look like there was an intruder -- something an intruder would have no reason to do.

yeah, the long lingering, freedom of movement, and familiarity with the house implied by the perp's actions, and lack of discernible purpose for the note are where IDI really runs into trouble for me, even if the intruder is a friend.

 

[Lebowski]

another thing. part of what made me take FDI seriously was hearing that apparently the police don't have a clear record that the doors were all locked when they first got there. however, i've since heard that john told the first officers who got there that the doors were all locked.

if he was, at that moment, in on an RDI attempt to frame a "small foreign faction", he'd have no reason to do that. better for the police to see lots of ways for an intruder to get in and out, rather than not being able to find any good possibilities. and assuming he said it in good faith, given his intelligence and the seriousness of the circumstances, i don't think he would have said it unless he had personally checked.

therefore, i tend to believe the doors were all locked at 6 AM. that makes any IDI theory considerably harder.