White space of the RN vs. PR's exemplars.

  • #21
Granted the study sample is small. Death by strangulation is probably not rife in Finland. However, it is a properly conducted study aimed at profiling offenders in just this type of crime, so it has relevance.

As to your opinion that only males sexually abuse children, perhaps you might like to look at this website? http://www.canadiancrc.com/Female_Sex_Offenders-Female_Sexual_Predators_awareness.aspx

In part, it says

"Sexual abuse by women of children and teens is a subject most parents and caregivers are not familiar with. Female sexual predators go unreported because of a lack of awareness by the public.

Female Sex Offenders- Sexual assault of children by females

75% of sexual predators are male and 25% are female.

86% of the victims of female sexual predators aren't believed, so the crimes go unreported and don't get prosecuted.

Considering these facts, arrest statistics for child sexual offenders by gender are meaningless"

and

"Some research has reported that female perpetrators commit fewer and less intrusive acts of sexual abuse compared to males. While male perpetrators are more likely to engage in anal intercourse and to have the victim engage in oral-genital contact, females tend to use more foreign objects as part of the abusive act (Kaufman et al., 1995)."

"It is interesting to note in the study by Kaufman et al. (1995) that 8% of the female perpetrators were teachers and 23% were babysitters, compared to male perpetrators who were 0% and 8% respectively."

Statistics overwhelmingly say its male offender. LE is testing male suspects against DNA. The RN author claimed male accomplices were 'watching over' JBR.

If the only thing you're using to promote a female offender is use of foreign objects, I'm afraid the male offender argument is far superior.
 
  • #22
Statistics overwhelmingly say its male offender. LE is testing male suspects against DNA. The RN author claimed male accomplices were 'watching over' JBR.

If the only thing you're using to promote a female offender is use of foreign objects, I'm afraid the male offender argument is far superior.

HOTYH, I originally took task against your statement that "Clearly when a 6 year old girl is victim of sexual assault and strangulation, its always a man"

I believe I have presented evidence of properly conducted studies that indicate that it may have been a female.

You also asked "What was the total number of child penetrations with objects, and how many of the offenders were female?" and I believe this was addressed also, from properly conducted studies.

"JBR's murder HAS sexual aspects. IMO your statistic changes to the point of insignificance with the introduction of the sexual and violent factors of this case." Again, I have presented evidence that this is not a valid argument against the possibility of a female.

I don't expect you to change your belief that a man was the offender, you have a right to believe this just as I have to believe that it more likely was a female.

You can if you wish state as fact something that is only a belief, but I'm afraid you lose credibility when you refuse to acknowledge the possibility of an alternative even when presented with supporting evidence.

What is a fact is that the offender may have been either male or female. End of argument!
 
  • #23
HOTYH, I originally took task against your statement that "Clearly when a 6 year old girl is victim of sexual assault and strangulation, its always a man"

I believe I have presented evidence of properly conducted studies that indicate that it may have been a female.

You also asked "What was the total number of child penetrations with objects, and how many of the offenders were female?" and I believe this was addressed also, from properly conducted studies.

"JBR's murder HAS sexual aspects. IMO your statistic changes to the point of insignificance with the introduction of the sexual and violent factors of this case." Again, I have presented evidence that this is not a valid argument against the possibility of a female.

I don't expect you to change your belief that a man was the offender, you have a right to believe this just as I have to believe that it more likely was a female.

You can if you wish state as fact something that is only a belief, but I'm afraid you lose credibility when you refuse to acknowledge the possibility of an alternative even when presented with supporting evidence.

What is a fact is that the offender may have been either male or female. End of argument!

What argument? The argument never started.

In order for you to have an argument against my statement that it is always a man, you would have to provide a specific example that would show it is not always a man.

Please provide one known example of sexual assault and strangulation of female in the same age range, where the offender was female. Until then I will assume my generalization was as accurate as it needed to be in the discussion I was having at the time.
 
  • #24
Granted the study sample is small. Death by strangulation is probably not rife in Finland. However, it is a properly conducted study aimed at profiling offenders in just this type of crime, so it has relevance.

As to your opinion that only males sexually abuse children, perhaps you might like to look at this website? http://www.canadiancrc.com/Female_Sex_Offenders-Female_Sexual_Predators_awareness.aspx

In part, it says

"Sexual abuse by women of children and teens is a subject most parents and caregivers are not familiar with. Female sexual predators go unreported because of a lack of awareness by the public.

Female Sex Offenders- Sexual assault of children by females

75% of sexual predators are male and 25% are female.

86% of the victims of female sexual predators aren't believed, so the crimes go unreported and don't get prosecuted.

Considering these facts, arrest statistics for child sexual offenders by gender are meaningless"


and

"Some research has reported that female perpetrators commit fewer and less intrusive acts of sexual abuse compared to males. While male perpetrators are more likely to engage in anal intercourse and to have the victim engage in oral-genital contact, females tend to use more foreign objects as part of the abusive act (Kaufman et al., 1995)."

"It is interesting to note in the study by Kaufman et al. (1995) that 8% of the female perpetrators were teachers and 23% were babysitters, compared to male perpetrators who were 0% and 8% respectively."

Not only that; it's now thought that a lot of unsolved murders were committed by women who no one thought to suspect because nobody thought a "girl" could kill.
 
  • #25
Not only that; it's now thought that a lot of unsolved murders were committed by women who no one thought to suspect because nobody thought a "girl" could kill.

I'm not nobody.

Lizzie Borden
The lady who drowned her kids in the lake.
The astronaut lady.
The 10 year old girl who killed twice.
Mother kills two daughters while they slept.
 
  • #26
I'm not nobody.

Lizzie Borden
The lady who drowned her kids in the lake.
The astronaut lady.
The 10 year old girl who killed twice.
Mother kills two daughters while they slept.

That's right, HOTYH. And do you notice the key there? With the exception of Lizzie Borden (who in her day was given a pass by many people because she was a woman), all of those happened within the last 30 years or so. I'm going way back!
 
  • #27
That's right, HOTYH. And do you notice the key there? With the exception of Lizzie Borden (who in her day was given a pass by many people because she was a woman), all of those happened within the last 30 years or so. I'm going way back!

I don't think anybody here believes PR is innocent just because she is a woman, or PR and JR are innocent just because parents would never do this.

I don't think this issue is applicable to JBR murder.
 
  • #28
I don't think anybody here believes PR is innocent just because she is a woman, or PR and JR are innocent just because parents would never do this.

I don't think this issue is applicable to JBR murder.

Sadly, HOTYH, I've heard people express exactly those ideas. Indeed, based on what I've read in the books and heard in interviews, those very beliefs were held in the upper ranks of the DA's office.

So whether or not the issue is applicable is debatable.
 
  • #29
HOTYH, I originally took task against your statement that "Clearly when a 6 year old girl is victim of sexual assault and strangulation, its always a man"

I believe I have presented evidence of properly conducted studies that indicate that it may have been a female.

You also asked "What was the total number of child penetrations with objects, and how many of the offenders were female?" and I believe this was addressed also, from properly conducted studies.

"JBR's murder HAS sexual aspects. IMO your statistic changes to the point of insignificance with the introduction of the sexual and violent factors of this case." Again, I have presented evidence that this is not a valid argument against the possibility of a female.

I don't expect you to change your belief that a man was the offender, you have a right to believe this just as I have to believe that it more likely was a female.

You can if you wish state as fact something that is only a belief, but I'm afraid you lose credibility when you refuse to acknowledge the possibility of an alternative even when presented with supporting evidence.

What is a fact is that the offender may have been either male or female. End of argument!
Interesting journal article about female sexual abusers from the Institute for Psychological Therapies:

http://www.ipt-forensics.com/journal/volume2/j2_4_1.htm
 
  • #30
Hey hotyh.

I had been reading about schoolastic programs, sciences and discovered that a section in forensics may be included as curriculum.


Index:
http://www.lyndaelyzoo.com/Forensic...uments/ForensicQuestionedDocumentsLabPage.htm

Individual Characteristics Of Handwriting:
http://www.lyndaelyzoo.com/Forensics page/Forensics labs/Questioned Documents/document analysis.pdf


Analysis of Ransom note form:

Visual Elimination Format

If any of the suspects’ handwriting can be quickly eliminated without performing a 12-exemplar analysis, you will need to justify your elimination with a brief statement.



 
  • #31
Hey hotyh.
I had been reading about schoolastic programs, sciences and discovered that a section in forensics may be included as curriculum.

Index:
http://www.lyndaelyzoo.com/Forensic...uments/ForensicQuestionedDocumentsLabPage.htm

Individual Characteristics Of Handwriting:
http://www.lyndaelyzoo.com/Forensics page/Forensics labs/Questioned Documents/document analysis.pdf

Analysis of Ransom note form:

Visual Elimination Format

If any of the suspects’ handwriting can be quickly eliminated without performing a 12-exemplar analysis, you will need to justify your elimination with a brief statement.

Hey TP, you can always sign up to this and become an 'expert' yourself.

http://www.handwritinginsights.com/
 
  • #32
  • #33
Hey MurriFlower.

Expert, smexpert. Intro to forensics, it's neat stuff.
The skills required to write the rn cannot solely be attributed to PR or limited to a 'writer'.

I actually read on one of these websites a while ago, that handwriting analysis is not a reliance on similarity, but rather on differences. That is to say, anyone can try to copy someone's handwriting and come up with any number of similarities in the formation of letters, slope, etc. However, when you look at two examples, you should be looking for things that are not alike to identify if they were written by the same person. Makes sense to me.
 
  • #34
I actually read on one of these websites a while ago, that handwriting analysis is not a reliance on similarity, but rather on differences. That is to say, anyone can try to copy someone's handwriting and come up with any number of similarities in the formation of letters, slope, etc. However, when you look at two examples, you should be looking for things that are not alike to identify if they were written by the same person. Makes sense to me.

Whereas I read someplace that handwriting analysis is where a subject writer is evaluated on their ability to write the entire questioned document.
 
  • #35
Whereas I read someplace that handwriting analysis is where a subject writer is evaluated on their ability to write the entire questioned document.

I think that's right HOTYH. PR did this 5 times I think. However, the other possible suspects were just asked to write a few words.
 
  • #36
If we are IDI then, it was not PR who wrote the note. Who then?

I said earlier, that people of a similar age with similar background in education pick up certain 'styles' in writing. Perhaps even people from the same family may write similarly.

However, in order to copy a person's handwriting sufficiently to cast doubt, I think you would probably need to have a ready supply of examples, so you can use combinations of letters etc. I wonder who would have access to this:

LPH's "unpublished" book, chapter 1

"One of the ways in which Patsy Ramsey would communicate with me was through handwritten notes, which she would leave for me with instructions for various duties around the house that needed my attention.

In the fourteen month period that I worked for the Ramseys, I was left several dozen handwritten notes by Patsy Ramsey. I am quite familiar with her handwriting, and I believe I can recognize it with very little difficulty.

I told the grand jury that since leaving the employ of the Ramseys, I had had occasion to see a copy of the ransom note found at the scene of JonBenet Ramsey's murder. It was heartbreaking for me to admit that the handwriting in the ransom note looked very much like the handwriting Patsy Ramsey used in writing her notes to me.

By way of example, Patsy made her letter "a"s very distinctively, and she would use accents over words like JonBenet and attaché, and often used initialing of words in combination, to name just a few of her many unique handwriting characteristics.
Because I once felt very close to Patsy Ramsey, and regarded her with almost as much affection as a member of my immediate family, it has been hard for me to admit that I am now certain that the handwriting in the ransom note looks to me as if it was made by one and the same person. "


This demonstrates an intimate knowledge of PR's handwriting and writing habits which was unlikely to have been available to very many people (outside of family). Of course, she may have just been telling them what she thought they wanted to hear, but .........
 
  • #37
This demonstrates an intimate knowledge of PR's handwriting and writing habits which was unlikely to have been available to very many people (outside of family).

That it does.

I'm not really sure where else to put this, so I guess here is as good as any. This is quoted material from Gideon Epstein's final report:

Patsy Ramsey has been positively indentified as the ransom note writer. There is no doubt in the view of this examiner. After making my examination of the ransom note and the exemplars of PR, I consulted with Larry Zieglar and Richard Williams, both former FBI document examiners, each with more than 25 years experience. They were both given the same exemplars as myself and they both reached the same conclusion independently.

Epstein also believed that PR had tried to alter her natural handwriting in the samples she provided to police (take note that he says a lot of the things that HOTYH has said in the past):

PR is an accomplished writer. She is normally a rapid writer who has writing skills far better than the average person. She displays that in her exemplars where she demonstrates some of her other styles. If the handwriting exemplars were truly naturally and freely executed, they would be far more rapidly written and contain that quality that we call "careless abandon" which means that the writer is not devoting conscious thought to the writing process. Instead, her exemplars are often very consciouly executed. When asked tp produce exemplars, she did not write as rapidly and unconsciously as she normally would because she was attempting to avoid certain natural formations and habits she was aware she'd made.

Keep in mind that madeleine has made it very clear that document analysis is fraught with pitfalls. One, it's not recognized as a true science; Two, perhaps even more importantly, the "experts" have a very strong "bunker" mentality, where they're right and everyone else is wrong. That mentality is very self-reinforcing (as most of us here could testify). That self-reinforcing tendency gets even worse when the field is small and insular, which the society of traditional document examiners most certainly is. The tradtional experts know that it's in their interest to politic anyone who isn't a member of their club out of the business because they don't want any competition for all of the big-money government jobs and contracts. A by-product of this mentality is similar to that seen among doctors: when one person makes a call, wrong or not, his fellows are hesitant to challenge that call, because they have such great respect for the person and because they don't want to make waves.

The irony here is, Epstein himself has always been quick to point these failings out. He has a rep as a maverick because of that. Moreover, he even claims that he quit the society specifically because they had become so insular and narrow-minded. Take that for what it's worth.
 
  • #38
That it does.

I'm not really sure where else to put this, so I guess here is as good as any. This is quoted material from Gideon Epstein's final report:

Patsy Ramsey has been positively indentified as the ransom note writer. There is no doubt in the view of this examiner. After making my examination of the ransom note and the exemplars of PR, I consulted with Larry Zieglar and Richard Williams, both former FBI document examiners, each with more than 25 years experience. They were both given the same exemplars as myself and they both reached the same conclusion independently.

Epstein also believed that PR had tried to alter her natural handwriting in the samples she provided to police (take note that he says a lot of the things that HOTYH has said in the past):

PR is an accomplished writer. She is normally a rapid writer who has writing skills far better than the average person. She displays that in her exemplars where she demonstrates some of her other styles. If the handwriting exemplars were truly naturally and freely executed, they would be far more rapidly written and contain that quality that we call "careless abandon" which means that the writer is not devoting conscious thought to the writing process. Instead, her exemplars are often very consciouly executed. When asked tp produce exemplars, she did not write as rapidly and unconsciously as she normally would because she was attempting to avoid certain natural formations and habits she was aware she'd made.

Keep in mind that madeleine has made it very clear that document analysis is fraught with pitfalls. One, it's not recognized as a true science; Two, perhaps even more importantly, the "experts" have a very strong "bunker" mentality, where they're right and everyone else is wrong. That mentality is very self-reinforcing (as most of us here could testify). That self-reinforcing tendency gets even worse when the field is small and insular, which the society of traditional document examiners most certainly is. The tradtional experts know that it's in their interest to politic anyone who isn't a member of their club out of the business because they don't want any competition for all of the big-money government jobs and contracts. A by-product of this mentality is similar to that seen among doctors: when one person makes a call, wrong or not, his fellows are hesitant to challenge that call, because they have such great respect for the person and because they don't want to make waves.

The irony here is, Epstein himself has always been quick to point these failings out. He has a rep as a maverick because of that. Moreover, he even claims that he quit the society specifically because they had become so insular and narrow-minded. Take that for what it's worth.

Did she or didn't she? Depends on which expert you ask I guess. Out of 73 handwriting samples, hers was the only one examined by four (4) experts, presumably until someone came up with the answer they were after.


"2 Q. (BY MR. WOOD) After your book
3 came out, sir, were you aware that
4 Mr. Ubowski publicly denied the accuracy of
5 the statement that he concluded Patsy Ramsey
6 wrote the ransom note?
7 A. No. You're telling me this for
8 the first time.
9 Q. Are you familiar that Mr. Ubowski
10 stated that he had never reached the
11 conclusion that 24 of her letters out of the
12 26 letters of the alphabet were matched with
13 the ransom note?
14 A. No, I have not heard that.
15 Q. And you stated to the contrary in
16 your book, didn't you?
17 A. Yeah, I stated what I was told by
18 my detective sergeant.
19 Q. And you weren't even, I guess,
20 aware that Mr. Ubowski and the CBI said they
21 don't even make that kind of analysis with
22 respect to the 24 out of the 26 letters of
23 the alphabet, you don't know anything about
24 that --
25 A. No.

112

1 Q. -- in terms of the public
2 statement by the CBI after your book was
3 published?
4 A. The CBI made a public statement?
5 Q. Yes, sir.
6 A. As an organization, I haven't seen
7 that.
8 MR. WOOD: I'll show it to you
9 when we come back a little bit later on.
10 Let's take five minutes.
"
 
  • #39
That it does.
I'm not really sure where else to put this, so I guess here is as good as any. This is quoted material from Gideon Epstein's final report:

Patsy Ramsey has been positively indentified as the ransom note writer. There is no doubt in the view of this examiner. After making my examination of the ransom note and the exemplars of PR, I consulted with Larry Zieglar and Richard Williams, both former FBI document examiners, each with more than 25 years experience. They were both given the same exemplars as myself and they both reached the same conclusion independently.

Epstein also believed that PR had tried to alter her natural handwriting in the samples she provided to police (take note that he says a lot of the things that HOTYH has said in the past):

Nowhere in the submissions provided by plaintiffs is there any attempt to show by what
methodology Mr. Epstein reaches a conclusion of absolute certainty that a given person is, in
fact, the writer of a questioned document.

26 In his response to defendants' Motion In Limine, plaintiff has provided conclusory affidavits
from other experts indicating that they agree with Epstein's methodology and conclusion. Yet,
those opinions beg the question. One does not know by what methodology these other
individuals reach their conclusion that Epstein can make a determination with "absolute
certainty." When the predictive ability of a professed skill is questioned, the belief of multiple
practitioners of that skill that its exercise produces a reliable result still provides no basis for
determining the ultimate soundness of the determination. Further, these individuals were not
disclosed as experts in the case and they did not provide expert reports, as required by Rule
26. Fed. R. Civ. P. 26(2) (B) (requiring that, unless otherwise agreed, the proponent of an
expert must disclose the expert's name and a written report "prepared and signed by the
witness" that, inter alia, includes a "complete statement of all opinions to be expressed and
the basis and reasons thereof.")

Page 52

Defendants persuasively argue that Epstein
was unable to identify any unique characteristics of Mrs. Ramsey's handwriting that were mimicked in the Ransom Note. (Def.
's Mtn. in Lim. <68> at 9). Instead. Epstein bases his conclusion on perceived similarities
between the two. Id. Yet, as noted by defendants, Epstein never indicates how many
similarities or what kind of similarities are required before he can reach absolute certainty,
50% certainty, or no certainty, at all. Further, as defendants also note, whenever encountering
any differences between the known writing of Mrs. Ramsey and the Ransom Note, Epstein
finds refuge in the explanation that Mrs. Ramsey must have been trying to disguise her
handwriting. (See id.) While it is, of course, possible that differences between known writing
and questioned documents are the result of a known writer's efforts to disguise her
handwriting, it is just as plausible that the differences can occur because the' known writer is
not the author of the questioned matter. On that issue, Epstein offers no hint of the
methodology that he employs to distinguish between disguised writing and writing that is
simply being provided by two different people.

The underlying notion behind Daubert, and all good science, is that a given premise or
principle should be capable of being tested to determine whether the principle is, in fact,
sound. Thus, if Epstein indicated, for example, that whenever a writer of known material has x
number of similarities, there is a given probability that the writer wrote the note--and if this

Page 53

methodology had been tested by reliable means in the past--then Epstein would have shown
reliability in the methodology that he used to reach a determination of the likelihood of his
conclusion. As it is, however, Epstein's explanation for his conclusion seems to be little more
than "Trust me; I'm an expert." Daubert case law has indicated that such an assertion, which
seems to be based more on intuition than on scientific reasoning, is insufficient. Accordingly,
the Court concludes that while Epstein can properly assist the trier of fact by pointing out
marked differences and unusual similarities between Mrs. Ramsey's writing and the Ransom
Note, he has not demonstrated a methodology whereby he can draw a conclusion, to an
absolute certainty, that a given writer wrote the Note.
27
 
  • #40
Did she or didn't she?

Most likely.

Depends on which expert you ask I guess.

Thus the problem. Ultimately, the experts would not decide it. The jury would.

MurriFlower, you might not be aware of this, but I know of at least two instances where people working for the Rs have tried to intimidate, harrass, even put the frame on document examiners specifically so they wouldn't/couldn't testify against PR in court. Now I ask you, if she's innocent, why would they stoop to such tactics?

Out of 73 handwriting samples, hers was the only one examined by four (4) experts, presumably until someone came up with the answer they were after.

That's the accusation. I don't believe it, myself. Even her own hired experts couldn't give her a clean bill of health on that one.

"2 Q. (BY MR. WOOD) After your book
3 came out, sir, were you aware that
4 Mr. Ubowski publicly denied the accuracy of
5 the statement that he concluded Patsy Ramsey
6 wrote the ransom note?
7 A. No. You're telling me this for
8 the first time.
9 Q. Are you familiar that Mr. Ubowski
10 stated that he had never reached the
11 conclusion that 24 of her letters out of the
12 26 letters of the alphabet were matched with
13 the ransom note?
14 A. No, I have not heard that.
15 Q. And you stated to the contrary in
16 your book, didn't you?
17 A. Yeah, I stated what I was told by
18 my detective sergeant.
19 Q. And you weren't even, I guess,
20 aware that Mr. Ubowski and the CBI said they
21 don't even make that kind of analysis with
22 respect to the 24 out of the 26 letters of
23 the alphabet, you don't know anything about
24 that --
25 A. No.

112

1 Q. -- in terms of the public
2 statement by the CBI after your book was
3 published?
4 A. The CBI made a public statement?
5 Q. Yes, sir.
6 A. As an organization, I haven't seen
7 that.
8 MR. WOOD: I'll show it to you
9 when we come back a little bit later on.
10 Let's take five minutes.
"

Well, ST and I are in the same boat, then. Because I've never seen this supposed public statement either, and I've looked. Believe me, I've looked. But since I'm not QUITE ready to accuse Lin Wood of making false statements in court, let's take it as a given. Still, in 2002, FOXNews did a piece on this case in which it was stated that Ubowski went before the GJ and said that she did likely write it and the only thing that kept him from being 100% was because the pen it was written with bled so heavily. I have no reason to doubt that story. In fact, the Rs sued FOX News over it, but the judge in that case dismissed it as without merit on the first day, whatever that tells you.
 

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