Working Theories Thread

[pufnstuf]

I just want to say that while I may not agree with the theories in this thread I do appreciate the work that has been put into them.

Emma, I really think yours is good... the point where I differ is the person with whom Kyron left. The rest, I pretty much agree!

 

[Kimster]

with all due respect i disagree...this case has genenerated really strong opinions...because there seemed to be a a clampdown on rumours (and i will agree there was a swirl of them) people were kind reluctant to post any theories but i will be willing to bet that there a plenty of theories that people have come up with...we are all "treading lightly" i think

Maybe I'm a lone soldier because I can't figure this out at ALL! I'm still in shock as though this happened yesterday.

 

[SoCalSleuth]

I think it was premeditated--that's why Kyron's remains have not been found. Also, because I think the Science Fair did provide the perfect opportunity for people "not to notice" everything; for there to be "confusion" relating to certain events or non-events of the day, and to blame an outsider. I think someone that knew and was close to Kyron is the perp because that's where the stats lead me, because LE has not warned citizens to be on the lookout, have not released a composite sketch, have not brought in any known RSO, and have referred to it as an "isolated incident". Simple theory cuz I like to keep it simple.

 

[Calliope]

Hey Calliope, for an unpopular theory, we are thinking a bit alike today. I reworked a theory much like yours just now. Difference is, I'm thinking Kyron knew the person(s)...and they knew him...

Actually, I've wavered back and forth on that. IF he was targeted specifically, yes. Random/opportunistic, no. First thing I thought of was older student, former students but still teens, the boyscout connection.

 

[butterfly1978]

Have we all steered away from the theory that this was an abduction for ransom?

I have based on the reward being $25,000

 

[Emma Peel]

are we are supposed to have verified facts when posting our theories?

Zaha, speaking for myself, I typically try to state where I have made an assumption for the sake of the theory - especially if it's an important part of the theory.

Like Kimster, I feel the best theories use substantiated facts and weave a plausible scenario around those facts that support your hypothesis.

So, not everything has to be fact - but any assumptions should be acknowledged for the reader.

and here we can't use rumor as fact in our theories, but we already knew that by now...

Typically if a fact is widely known, no linking required in theorizing. If you're using a really obscure fact - it's considerate to link it.

And sometimes if you're really working on a fine detailed analysis - that you hope to make into a proof statement - one that will become a fact in a later theory - ( such as a ping map study or something like that to support your POI assumptions) - then links to your data sources are necessary. What you're doing there is creating your own proof statement of fact - so the linking shows your proofs are based on facts.

I hope at least some of that makes sense. :waitasec:

 

[Emma Peel]

I am sorry if this has already been mentioned have been reading all thru the posts in kyrons forensic astrology and reading the links posted where it came to my attention that the friday in question(june 4) that kyron went missing, that not only was there a science fair scheduled for that morning (which we already know that kyron was involved with and that his step mother attended this fair also) but what I did not know was that there was a talent show scheduled for that afternoon after lunch, which Kyron was also scheduled to be involved and participate in. So, my question is this, I as a parent have always attended any&all school functions, activities, etc that my son has been involved in, especially something such as atalent show for which he wouldve had to put at the very least a fair amount of time and hard word into preparing for such an event and at the age of 7 this would definitely involve a great deal of involvement by a parent in organizing (i.e. deciding the specifics on what talent and how to present that talent) along with a parent encouraging and more than likely helping in the practicing for the talent show. All of that said I would think that if a parent came to something such as the science fair that morning that equally as important there would be a parent that would have been present for kyrons involvement in the talent show? But yet as we know by the facts that OBVIOUSLY no one did attend the talent show, hence they would have known at the time of the talent show that kyron was missing, several full hours earlier than when the bus driver notified the school. I find this to be somewhat disheartening and not adding up for me. Does anyone know anything about this talent show and possibly why no parent attended this talent show?? TIA

Hi Jessigirl -
You might want to ask this question over on the Science FAIR/IB Expo thread. Here's the link: [ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106889"]The Science Fair-IB Expo - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community[/ame]

Also try the Kyron Question Thread. Here's the link: [ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106888"]Kyron Horman Q&A ***No Discussion*** - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community[/ame]

 

[Emma Peel]

Is there any chance that the search is based on pings from Kyron's cellphone, as opposed to somebody else's?

Hi Jules -

I am not aware of Kyron having a cell phone but ... you can
Try the Kyron Question Thread. Here's the link:
[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106888"]Kyron Horman Q&A ***No Discussion*** - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community[/ame]

(This thread is for your case theories.)

 

[jessigirl]

Hi Jessigirl -
You might want to ask this question over on the Science FAIR/IB Expo thread. Here's the link: The Science Fair-IB Expo - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

Also try the Kyron Question Thread. Here's the link: Kyron Horman Q&A ***No Discussion*** - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

Thanks very much. I'll delete my post from this thread

 

[mamaeb]

well I have a few different theories but my current one is sorta like this, but not so edited down.


Someone close to Kyron took him away after the science fair. I think this person was someone Kyron willingly went with, because he trusted them.

I also think there is a chance the teacher trusted Kyron leaving with this person, and so she thought nothing of his absence.

I think
1.either this was planned and he was killed

2.something went wrong and kyron was hurt/killed by this person

the person went to drop the body and the phone pinged near the water on sauvie

the phone also pinged around the school and initial search area

maybe this person left him in water, maybe not

Maybe in that time this person called 911 and then freaked and didn't talk to them
**(this could be why the police mentioned reverse calling 911 calls)

 

[Emma Peel]

My apologies. My question actually related to the one theory based on cellphone pings and the subsequent search. I'll delete my question.

oh, no then my bad So sorry Jules!
lol I've been sending questions to the question thread for too long, I guess.

It's great for you to ask questions on a theory. If you quote the theory in your post, that original poster who's theory you're commenting on will know that you've commented/questioned. Still, if anyone else can answer your question they might pop in & help out.

 

[anyoldtime48]

Well postpartum enters my mind in this case.

I read the information the astro charts provide, that is where the though entered my head.

LOL.. I am too chicken to post anything on here yet, I'll wait for a few more theories to come on, so I can see how detailed the theories get...

BBM

Interesting that I picked up the same thing. Don't recall that was stated directly?? But then most of the astro stuff is Greek to me.

Adding in the physical description astros provided, all kinds of bells and whistles went off regarding a non-family person, but I need to ask a bunch of questions (off to 6 other threads) to see if my theory on precisely WHO has any legs at all.

If it is somebody local known to Kyron, I suspect there was planning behind this, although that day may have still had a strong element of crime of opportunity -- strike while the iron is hot so to speak.

Total stranger? Maybe. But basically in the boonies where a stranger is not likely to know the school was open to the world that morning. More likely I think he walked off with somebody he knew and mistakenly trusted.

 

[Jules_SA]

Summary of points leading to suspected theory:

1. LE states that this is an isolated incident and there is no stranger danger. This alone is huge and pretty states what they are thinking.
2. Children and teacher are allowed to return to school right away.
3. LE seems to be highly focused on one area for searching and its suggested source = cell phone pinging.
4. LE has been rather tight lipped in this case and has not been asking the public to look out for certain cars, suspect sketches, etc. Yes, they have been asking for video footage however.

BBM
Thank you, Chargers, for these points which can be used to create certain theories and assumptions. However, what if Kyron had a cellphone and they're basing their search areas on his cellphone pings?
If he was taken by someone that he knew, as premeditated as the whole abduction *might* have been, they may not have known that he had a cellphone in his pocket. Either that, or we're back to the theory that the "perp" is known to LE and they're basing their search on the perp's cellphone pings.

 

[Jaxson]

Possibility?

SM takes Kyron to school,
SM and Kyron set up IB project in his classroom and they do a quick tour of the other projects.
SM leaves at 8:45 after the 2nd bell rings and Kyron heads down the hall to class.
Kids are put in groups of 6 to tour the IB fair.
During tour Kyron has to use the bathroom. Perp grabs him and exits the building.
Sub, para, volunteer parent or whoevers group he was in gets back to classroom with kids and says wait Kyron is missing, teacher says he probably went to get a drink or use the bathroom.
Kyron doesn't come back, teacher may or may not look for him before deciding he must hav left with mom.


Or same scenario however when the group comes back to the classroom Kyron does not come in but tells his friend 'I am going to see the electric project' (which he knows about so has probably already seen)
Kyron is grabbed by perp while kids are filing into classrooms and heads counts are being taken (or roll call).
Sub, para, volunteer parent notices he is gone, teacher thinks he went to bathroom or to get a drink. and after looking for him decides he left with SM.

I am sure I missed something but I do believe he and step mom could have been seen together by his teacher and another 'instructor' and by a friend in the doorway and a conversation overheard by TP.
And he still coulda been grabbed by an opportunistic perp.

ETA I had posted this awhile back but I think it is a theory.

 

[txsvicki]

If Kyron's abduction was planned and not one of opportunity, then the abductor could be someone who would not have easy access to him during the summer. The hectic lax atmosphere of a science fair and talent show on the same day (ridiculous IMO) would be a good time for luring a child away. This person must not have been able to get to Kyron at home easily or while he was out playing with friends or at the bus stop. I may be wrong, but it all sounds as if the abductor is someone somehow associated with the school or has some connection to other students so as not to stand out too much at the science fair or even waiting in the parking areas.

 

[wildsagefire]

Has anyone checked out any delivery drivers?

Delivery people come and go throughout the day and they drive to different locations. You pass them in the hallway and they are in and out quickly!

Someone who would take a child would have to be in and out quickly to get away with a them unseen. A promise of candy or pop from a machine?

Just a thought into a theory.

 

[Chili Fries]

My theory is that LE are very actively investigating different possibilities.

I think that with the information we have right now it could be anything. Abduction where he is killed or kept (by stranger or somebody he knew, SM accident or anger, hit by a car and body hid in a panic, or even wandered off and his body is still hidden in the dense foliage somewhere. My #1 possibility right now is probably abduction as a crime of opportunity not necessarily pre-planned.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I'm not wedded to a specific theory yet because there just isn't enough evidence known to give particular weight to any theory.

I do have a theory as to how it happened if it were a stranger abduction.

In such a situation, I think the perp was someone who was not associated with the school but could have given a plausible reason for being in the school that morning had he been confronted.

I think he was someone who was a friend or perhaps even a dating partner of one of the parents in the school. Either because he was grooming that parent or because he was trying to garner information about the school.

I think the actual abduction was opportunistic in nature. No one knew he was going to be in the school that day. He went to the school with his plausible reason for being there and, had he used it, he would have left the school without abducting Kyron.

I think he was able to blend in with the rest of the adults there, meaning that he looks between 30 and 45 years old (the approximate age range of the parent of a 5-14 year old child). For some reason, I think of him as dressing a notch above jeans and a T shirt. I imagine him wearing something like Dockers and a polo shirt or maybe a sweat shirt. He'd dress very white collar and probably wear a wedding ring, whether he's married or not (to foster the illusion that he belonged in a school).

He happened upon Kyron alone and out of earshot of other people. Like the Adam Walsh abduction, the potential witnesses present were focusing on the exhibits rather than the environment.

He asked Kyron to help him bring something in from his vehicle and probably told him that his teacher or the principal of the school had okay'd it. Being a helpful, rule observant little boy, Kyron didn't question it.

He walked with Kyron out to his vehicle, keeping an eye out for witnesses. If anyone had seen them together, the abduction would have been aborted, Kyron would have returned to the school unharmed.

When he and Kyron got to the vehicle, there were no eyewitnesses in sight. Given the popularity of SUVs and trucks, no matter where he was parked, the sight lines were probably quite short.

He would not have been on the school's phone list, so he did not go in on Sunday to be interviewed. No one knew he was going to be at the school that day, so no one has identified him as a possible witness or suspect.

Sadly, if this theory is correct, I believe he killed Kyron and disposed of his body before anyone realised that Kyron was unaccounted for. There is a link between him and the school, it's just a tenuous one but enough that he can't risk keeping a captive.

 

[BeanE]

Good morning, everyone!

I've temporarily unapproved a few posts until a senior mod or admin can review them. I apologize for this interruption.

Thanks for your patience!
BeanE

 

[animefemme]

1. Has anyone explored Münchausen's by proxy? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%BCnchausen_syndrome_by_proxy

2. Reaching but, a theory brought up on another message-board was the angle of retaliation by friends of perps arrested by Tony Young: http://www.ci.medford.or.us/News.asp?NewsID=2727

3. Jealousy against Kyron by ???