Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #6

[DK007]

Is anyone other than me reflecting on what the odds are of a completely “random” untargeted opportunistic attack occurring without a single trace of evidence being left behind at the scene (that the public are aware of), and no trace of where the body mysteriously “disappeared” to, after 5+ weeks of intensive police and community searching? It would seem extraordinarily “lucky” to me that a rookie accused murderer could “pull off” a series of untraceable steps with such aplomb, attracting 5 weeks of national and international attention with no planning, and, further, impaired by drugs, alcohol and lack of sleep…. ?!?! Even if he did know the area… The odds of all these separate elements of “lucky ness” seem so far beyond chance as to be extraordinary… While Samantha, on the other hand, was so “unlucky”… : (

This too has crossed my mind. Anything is possible sadly. I just hope SM is found for the sake of her family friends and the community.

 

[Angeline]

IMO Too much is being made of the age difference. I don't think he saw her face close up and knew she was 50.
He saw a woman running. She was fit.
He saw a woman. She was running. How dare she be out there free and running? Who did he think she was? Did she think she could just go out and do what she wanted?
He'd show her.

True. That's how most predators seem to think. I was more puzzled by the potential stalking scenario - that he could've known a lot about her if he was stalking.

 

[DK007]

Victoria Police Commissioner Shane Patton told media this afternoon that detectives questioned the man for more than 30 hours after he was taken into custody yesterday. He said police believed the murder was "a deliberate act" and "not a hit and run

Meaning he went out with the intent to murder someone and sadly crossed paths with SM. Correct my if I’m wrong please.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Years ago I knew this woman who worked hard at keeping her body trim.
I think then she would have been in her fifties at least.

She told me that she'd lost count of the old now wolf whistles as she was walking, then they'd pull up in front and get a shock when they saw her face.

 

[Belleandsebastian]

It's important if signals have picked up her movements…. Ie her speed increased, being in a vehicle and her heart was still sending a signal.

This is the other evidence the police have linked her to his vehicle and prove that she was still alive.

His and Samantha's phone ping at the same time

I think Samantha was ambushed, possible knocked out and taken away in his vehicle and assaulted and killed

And he has then dumped her body

I think the reason he is not saying anything because a body will incriminate him further.

Maybe even sexual assault could be revealed.

We don't if his girlfriend was with him at the pub ? Did she go home with him ?
Even if she went home with him, where was she at around 8am after the alleged murder ?

Interesting his neighbour said, We see him coming and going all the time, when he's got the motorbike, and when he used to have the army uniform on

If that's true, it would certainly make him difficult to see him in the bush

There are certainly a lot of entries with his same name and currently being investigated by SOCIT.

At Ballarat Court

So if it's the same name, definitely not his first time in court or interacting with police

The Chief Commissioner of Police, Shane Patton, would not comment if the accused murder is known to them in the news conference

The accused murder lawyer David Tamaninka was likely a “his parents called their local family Lawyer , quick get someone rep' But not his ongoing rep, he has no speciality

So could be new legal representation for the accused court case on 8 August

I would presume the police have sat the parents down and explained exactly what they think has happened

If they thought for a minute it was an accident, they would have been there supporting him

The further this gets investigated, we could see a pattern of behaviour from him that was previously ignored, or he got

slapped on the wrist, for that lead him to allegedly murdering Samantha Murphy.

​

There is a site called ‘Court Data’ where you can look up anyone’s court appearances. You get some free searches to begin with, but then have to pay after that.

 

[DK007]

I even suspect that the body was allegedly moved from temporary hiding place to the fires that raged in the neighbourhood.

After all, the accused had a lot of time before he got on Police's radar.

JMO

LE were onto him within two weeks of SM disappearance, did the fires occur within that two week time frame or after ?

 

[Dotta]

LE were onto him within two weeks of SM disappearance, did the fires occur within that two week time frame or after ?

Hmmm...
I don't know exactly the dates

But I remember the info about some places evacuating b/c of fires and the searches were cancelled.

 

[Belleandsebastian]

I tend to agree with you. IMHO - Coming home from God only knows where, possibly speeding, most likely with drugs and alcohol in his system, maybe on a suspended licence, and he accidently hits her. (pure coincidence it's at the halfway point of her run.) I'm guessing not hard enough, or in the right place, for there to be blood, just trauma. From here he panics. He sees his life disappear before him - parents ashamed and shun him, girlfriend leaves him, looses his job, looses status in the community. He can't risk that. She's clearly not dead yet (because of the murder, not manslaughter charge), maybe there's an argument, either way he "finishes her off". Maybe using tools from his car, or a nearby rock, or maybe even running over her again (less likely IMHO). From there, who knows? Was he alone in the car at this point? Did he call someone for physical assistance, or to get advice? Time will hopefully tell.

I am leaning towards a road rage incident. Maybe he drove dangerously past Samantha and she gestured or took a photo of his car. He saw this in the rear view mirror, and being young and hot-headed (as some younger drivers are, particularly males) he reversed back and either hit her or got out of the car and assaulted her.

 

[MadDoc]

This just appeared on a news website - relates to the disappearance and death of a woman in 2022 which is currently the subject of a coroner's inquest. May have some relevance to Samantha's case.

Coroner to recommend Victoria Police train cadaver dogs after search delays for SA woman Colleen South

"[The coronial hearing] heard Victoria Police no longer has a dog squad trained to locate human remains."

 

[DK007]

unless he dumped her in water and then had a wash off and could have had a fight with gf and taking time out? or didnt have whereabouts accountability to anyone?

Imoo
Between his GF, family & friends cctv etc…
I think LE would have nailed his timeline from when SM disappeared to his arrest and if there’s any gaps in between his timeline LE can piece together quite confidently when SM was disposed of, as LE confidently said SM was murdered on the day she disappeared..
I don’t like to phrase it that way…

 

[tiff]

I

Is anyone other than me reflecting on what the odds are of a completely “random” untargeted opportunistic attack occurring without a single trace of evidence being left behind at the scene (that the public are aware of), and no trace of where the body mysteriously “disappeared” to, after 5+ weeks of intensive police and community searching? It would seem extraordinarily “lucky” to me that a rookie accused murderer could, single-handedly, “pull off” a series of untraceable steps with such aplomb, attracting 5 weeks of national and international attention with no planning, and, further, impaired by drugs, alcohol and lack of sleep…. ?!?! Even if he did know the area… The odds of all these separate elements of “lucky ness” seem so far beyond chance as to be extraordinary… While Samantha, on the other hand, was so “unlucky”… : (

I disagree. Bradley Robert Edwards got away with it for 20 years. Yes, they found 2 bodies, but not the 3rd.

 

[DK007]

Hmmm...
I don't know exactly the dates

But I remember the info about some places evacuating b/c of fires and the searches were cancelled.

Yes I recall that too.. As the community had organised a ground search for SM and it was called off due to the fires.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

My thoughts are somehow he had knowledge that Boak Rd ( Telstra tower area) is the turnaround half way point of her 14 Km run and lay in wait .

I agree, I think he has watched Sam before and this might have been planned for a while

Police thinking it was a targeted attack

for someone supposedly off his face

he has been methodical in planning, organising

He would have known there would be a big search team looking for Sam in the next hours

Including helicopters, fixed wing, extra police on the roads, leading into the bush etc..

So his getaway with Samantha, my thinking quick and to get out of there

with possible at this stage Samantha semi-conscious / unconscious in his vehicle

Depending on what his girlfriend has said to police, how long he was away for when questioned,

The police might be able to obtain intelligence through conversations/messages between him and his girlfriend listening into the conversations on the morning of Samantha's disappearance, through to her sadly death

He could have travelled anywhere, Geelong is only 1 hour via highway from Mt Clear

If anyone asked, including his girlfriend, where he is going before 8am,

he could mention to her and others, lying, that he's going to do an emergency electrical job somewhere ( being an electrician ) and will be back later on

 

[Dotta]

Maybe the accused allegedly moved her away from the bush/park/forest to one of some other suburbs?

Far away from searches?

 

[JLZ]

Hmmm...
I don't know exactly the dates

But I remember the info about some places evacuating b/c of fires and the searches were cancelled.

The fires weren't in the search area though. I think the nearest were in the Beaufort region, 40km away. And while I don't know anything about firefighting, I don't think placing a body in the path of a bushfire is viable: you don't know for sure which way the fire is going to turn, it's dangerous not to mention uncomfortable to get close, there are firefighters to be avoided and helicopters, and the body may be missed entirely by the fire or else there would probably be identifiably human remains.

 

[Neet_Mc]

IMO
Dad's sports celebrity status has been ridiculously hyped up.
I think he was appreciated locally as a player but that's it!!!

I honestly don't think it influenced his son one way or the other.

JMO

This would be part of the issue! Media always latches onto that rather than the reality of being accused of committing a horrific crime. The bloke just plays football - he not a saint!

 

[Thinker Matt]

I am leaning towards a road rage incident. Maybe he drove dangerously past Samantha and she gestured or took a photo of his car. He saw this in the rear view mirror, and being young and hot-headed (as some younger drivers are, particularly males) he reversed back and either hit her or got out of the car and assaulted her.

This would be very hard to prove as murder though. Which is what the LE have repeatedly said they were alleging against him.

As someone else earlier in the thread posted, for it to be considered deliberate, you have to be able to prove/say the person involved was intending to kill someone. I'm not sure in this instance, a moment road rage/getting out of the car to confront SM would lead to DELIBERATELY killing her.

 

[Oona]

Is anyone other than me reflecting on what the odds are of a completely “random” untargeted opportunistic attack occurring without a single trace of evidence being left behind at the scene (that the public are aware of), and no trace of where the body mysteriously “disappeared” to, after 5+ weeks of intensive police and community searching in 2024? It would seem extraordinarily “lucky” to me that a rookie accused murderer could, single-handedly, “pull off” a series of untraceable steps with such aplomb, attracting 5 weeks of national and international attention with no planning, and, further, impaired by drugs, alcohol and lack of sleep…. ?!?! Even if he did know the area… The odds of all these separate elements of “lucky ness” seem so far beyond chance as to be extraordinary… While Samantha, on the other hand, was so “unlucky”… : (

I expect the police have a lot more evidence than the public know about, after all they have charged the alleged perpetrator with murder.
In my opinion, investigators will be putting all the pieces of his movements together and narrowing down where to search for Sam’s body, and there will be lots of pressure on the alleged offender to reveal the location.
So while it might appear that his alleged crime was seamless at this stage, I think we will learn in time, that it was not.
As hard as it is for Sam’s loved ones that her body has not been recovered, at least the suspect is in custody and a strong case for his conviction can be prepared.

 

[Angeline]

This would be part of the issue! Media always latches onto that rather than the reality of being accused of committing a horrific crime. The bloke just plays football - he not a saint!

It's always very interesting to see how the media words their headlines when discussing crimes against women. It's usually either victim blaming or describing the attack as something that "happened" to her, like a weather event. They never explicitly say this man allegedly murdered this woman, or even a man.

I'd never noticed it until I saw some activists pointing it out, now I can't unsee it.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

A great leader for the boys and girls in blue. Under pressure as well. Respect !

Police will allege Ms Murphy died on the day she disappeared in Mount Clear, and that the attack was “deliberate”. Police have also revealed that Ms Murphy's death was not a hit-and-run.