Possibly related cases (GB4, Manorville, Bittrolff victims, & others)

[BKS]

I made an interesting cognition over the last few cases. Real profiling hurts the profiler three times:
- first, when you say what you see. Because people jump on you telling you, you over-think things
- second while you wait someone finally does what the profile suggests
- third time when the guy is caught, you were right on once more and everybody hates you therefore.

So don't assume, I take remarks like "sometimes, if you think too much" too serious anymore. I did once, but that is over 15 years ago.

Peter

So do you think the GB4 or AC4 are connected to each other or any other murders?

 

[Peter Brendt]

So do you think the GB4 or AC4 are connected to each other or any other murders?

1.) No, I don't think GB4 and AC are connected.

2.) The timeline of the GB4 murders seems to indicate, the unsub is only for a certain time of the years, about mid of May to maybe end of September in the area of LI and NYC. so chances are, there are other dump sites somewhere else and my guess would be South or Southwest. However, those bodies wouldn't be necessarily wrapped in burlap.

3.) AC could be connected to other murders, maybe even overseas, but I haven't found too much yet, fitting that bill.

Peter

 

[Peter Brendt]

Kim Raffo left her x-husband for another man, (not 6 years ago, but 12 years ago, it was in 2000) but yes she also developed into a drug addict as years went by, but some people have stated that she used drugs also before she left her x-husband.

IMO her x-husband was obsessed by her, in love? I don´t know?
But this saying comes to mind; "If I can´t have her nobody shall have her..."

And here is some info from a newsreport published Nov 25, 2006, 5 days after Kim Raffo was found murdered:

The couple, who eloped in 1989, had been separated not only from each other but from their children - Kxxxxxx, 14, and Hxxxxx, 12 - amid Raffo's problems with infidelity and drug use and Auslander's legal problems after an altercation with Raffo's boyfriend, Kenny Bilecki.

"He's the one that turned her into a hardcore (drug user). He wound up destroying everything. He ripped out the seams," said Auslander, who turned himself in to Margate police after Bilecki pressed charges against him, claiming Auslander tried to kill him and Raffo. "I blame him for her death. I know he didn't kill her, but he brought her here."

By the way, the x-husband was convicted of aggrevated assult (for the Bilecki attack, KR's new boyfriend).

Somthing to think about wouldn´t you say?
Domestic violence was also part of their marrige, and that is a fact.

I suggest that you go and read my post #10 in this thread (link below), read post #9 as well when your at it:

HA and his media presence - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

So he attacked his ex-wife's new lover? That isn't domestic violence. And it supports more my point than yours. Otherwise, I see a long list with articles, some modsnips because you went already back then a little over board and the attempt to declare him guilty without the faintest piece of even circumstantial evidence. And domestic violence (if you read those articles) was NOT part of the marriage, it was part of your assumptions.

Peter

 

[Peter Brendt]

Peter are you really serious? If your loved one was so messed up wouldn't you take them to your home or to family. Not to a rundown piece of crap dive of a motel. Honestly?

If I would try to rescue a loved one without a roof over the head and drug addicted, I would need a base nearby to give her at least a few days to clean up a little before bringing her home to family. Considering, this man had not much money, his choices were limited.

Peter

 

[rotten dingo]

To determine ethnicity on a phone is based on speech patterns. Means, it's the choice of words, that makes the difference. Simplified, if you have someone on the phone who calls you all the time "bro", you assume, he is African-American. If you have someone on the phone, who doesn't use such keywords, you assume, he is Caucasian.

Peter Brendt

RSBM, BBM
I enjoy reading your posts and appreciate your experience, Peter. (Though I am not so sure about the African-American POI angle) Anyway, I know English is not your first language, but I take issue with your example above. If I were on the phone with someone I did not know who kept saying "bro", I would assume I was speaking with a long-haired rocker type person, :rocker: or perhaps a surfer - something to that effect. (Think "Dazed and Confused" types, or Dog the Bounty Hunter, for example, though he says it "bra") I don't know if you chose the word "bro" for a specific reason to make your example, but to me that is a very Caucasian word, and I've known many people like this who use the term.

Also, if the reported phone calls, and alleged wording therein, to the boyfriend/pimp have any influence on your thinking that the LISK is African-American, I again have to disagree. (respectfully, of course eace: ) He stated the caller said "I know where you be at"...I think that was the phrase used. I believe this could be his, the pimp's, paraphrasing of the callers words. The caller may have said something like "I know where you live/hang out, etc." and when the pimp/boyfriend was interviewed he relayed the call in his normal speaking method, paraphrasing and saying the caller said "I know where you be at". If that makes sense, lol. However, even if the caller did actually say "I know where you be at" (which I doubt) I don't think those words alone would indicate he was African-American. There are plenty of people of other races who speak in such a manner. This may be a lot more common in the US than where you are from. But here, there are many people of all colors who speak in a way that some would stereotypically associate with certain African-American culture/lingo. If I read (no voice clues) something where someone said "I know where you be at" it would tell me more about the person's culture/influences etc. than giving any hint of race.

Just my :twocents: of course.

 

[BKS]

So he attacked his ex-wife's new lover? That isn't domestic violence. And it supports more my point than yours. Otherwise, I see a long list with articles, some modsnips because you went already back then a little over board and the attempt to declare him guilty without the faintest piece of even circumstantial evidence. And domestic violence (if you read those articles) was NOT part of the marriage, it was part of your assumptions.

Peter

The key word here is EX-wife. He was obsessed with her and then tried to kill them both with a baseball bat.

 

[Theforeigner]

So he attacked his ex-wife's new lover? That isn't domestic violence. And it supports more my point than yours. Otherwise, I see a long list with articles, some modsnips because you went already back then a little over board and the attempt to declare him guilty without the faintest piece of even circumstantial evidence. And domestic violence (if you read those articles) was NOT part of the marriage, it was part of your assumptions.

Peter

The domestic violence part does not involve the Bilecki attack, and I do have court records on those DV cases.
And the info I have posted here on WS is only a very small part of what I have on my POI, I have ca 100 pages of material but I can not post it here, however the police have most of it, I just have to send them what I have gathered the last cupple of months.
By the way I´m not particular fond of your tone, it tend to be kind of smug somtimes, no need for that. It would suit you to be a bit more openminded.
Only my humble opinion of course.

 

[Peter Brendt]

RSBM, BBM
I enjoy reading your posts and appreciate your experience, Peter. (Though I am not so sure about the African-American POI angle) Anyway, I know English is not your first language, but I take issue with your example above. If I were on the phone with someone I did not know who kept saying "bro", I would assume I was speaking with a long-haired rocker type person, :rocker: or perhaps a surfer - something to that effect. (Think "Dazed and Confused" types, or Dog the Bounty Hunter, for example, though he says it "bra") I don't know if you chose the word "bro" for a specific reason to make your example, but to me that is a very Caucasian word, and I've known many people like this who use the term.

Now this made me grin. There I go and try to find an as striking example as possible and now that. But you're right, keywords in speech patterns change with area. Here around, "bro" is a very African-American term, a hundred or two-hundred miles NW of here, it wouldn't be. Then there would be other speech patterns. And the example of surfers is pretty nice, because it also shows, groups inside of societies create own additional speech patterns. Even I admit, I have no ideas about surfer slang - I'm a diver, for me surfers are people who come noiseless along and bang a board in your head when you surface.
However, take the "bro" as an example for a mechanism. Like the "dude" in Amanda's description of the caller.

Also, if the reported phone calls, and alleged wording therein, to the boyfriend/pimp have any influence on your thinking that the LISK is African-American, I again have to disagree. (respectfully, of course eace: ) He stated the caller said "I know where you be at"...I think that was the phrase used. I believe this could be his, the pimp's, paraphrasing of the callers words. The caller may have said something like "I know where you live/hang out, etc." and when the pimp/boyfriend was interviewed he relayed the call in his normal speaking method, paraphrasing and saying the caller said "I know where you be at". If that makes sense, lol. However, even if the caller did actually say "I know where you be at" (which I doubt) I don't think those words alone would indicate he was African-American. There are plenty of people of other races who speak in such a manner. This may be a lot more common in the US than where you are from. But here, there are many people of all colors who speak in a way that some would stereotypically associate with certain African-American culture/lingo. If I read (no voice clues) something where someone said "I know where you be at" it would tell me more about the person's culture/influences etc. than giving any hint of race.

Just my :twocents: of course.

There are more reasons to profile this one as African-American, not only the speech patterns. The victimology, the fact, that he called the pimp in the first place, the dump site with drive-by revisitibility ... add that up. The speech thing is only one dot in the picture. Honestly, if that would be all, I wouldn't have dared to say anything about ethnicity. A one point profile is in my opinion too wobbly to speak at all.

Peter

 

[dcgrumpy]

Now this made me grin. There I go and try to find an as striking example as possible and now that. But you're right, keywords in speech patterns change with area. Here around, "bro" is a very African-American term, a hundred or two-hundred miles NW of here, it wouldn't be. Then there would be other speech patterns. And the example of surfers is pretty nice, because it also shows, groups inside of societies create own additional speech patterns. Even I admit, I have no ideas about surfer slang - I'm a diver, for me surfers are people who come noiseless along and bang a board in your head when you surface.
However, take the "bro" as an example for a mechanism. Like the "dude" in Amanda's description of the caller.



There are more reasons to profile this one as African-American, not only the speech patterns. The victimology, the fact, that he called the pimp in the first place, the dump site with drive-by revisitibility ... add that up. The speech thing is only one dot in the picture. Honestly, if that would be all, I wouldn't have dared to say anything about ethnicity. A one point profile is in my opinion too wobbly to speak at all.

Peter

Can you elaborate?

 

[Peter Brendt]

The domestic violence part does not involve the Bilecki attack, and I do have court records on those DV cases.
And the info I have posted here on WS is only a very small part of what I have on my POI, I have ca 100 pages of material but I can not post it here, however the police have most of it, I just have to send them what I have gathered the last cupple of months.
By the way I´m not particular fond of your tone, it tend to be kind of smug somtimes, no need for that. It would suit you to be a bit more openminded.
Only my humble opinion of course.

Come on, you don't like my tone, I don't like yours. So what, are we professionals or not? You can of course cut me a little slack here. I went through the mill the last few times I was right on with my profiles and got the very same accusations of thinking too much, of being smug and so on. Imagine, you would have been the one, who told on Yahoo, Abuelazam wasn't a white supremacist deserving a medal from the far right but a sick guy who hated weak people, because he had to do too much with them in his daylight medical profession. You would have gotten thousands of mails from people, who told you, you are obviously wrong and they don't like your tone. And you would have gotten enough murder threats after it showed, you were right, to fill a semi rig with the printouts.
And then imagine, you would have been the first to say on a public board, the baseline killer is Hispanic instead of white as the FBI profile said. I couldn't even read half of the threat mails because they were in Spanish.
So, maybe it sounds smug again, but I lost my ability to care about that kind of mails/posts a long time ago. So lets keep that on a factual level, will we?

Peter

 

[Peter Brendt]

Can you clarify what you mean by that?

The grin-part: I like intelligent posts

The one point profile-part: I don't like to rely on one and only one detail. It has to be consistent over all details.

The reasons, why I profile him African-American:

The victimology shows four females of different visual appearance who have nothing in common but gender and ethnicity. This is pretty similar to victimologies I have seen in other racial/mission-driven cases, for example Bernard Jackson, the Waldo-Rapist.

The caller appeared as drunk white dude, but he wasn't actually drunk or he would messed up his timing more. So that was a disguise and I have to aks, what's the opposite to a drunk white dude? A sober black dude.

The timeline suggests stalking and a connection to NYC (ouch, now I will get mobbed again for saying that). The apartment in the Bronx (Barthelmy) is in a mostly Hispanic part but surrounded by mostly black parts. A white stalker would have stood out like a cactus in a rose garden.

The dump site at GB is created for drive-by revisits. That tells me, the single victim isn't important, but what they symbolize together. This is more a hint on mission-driven than on ethnicity, but there is only a limited number of "causes" for mission-driven SKs, that involve a victimology as described above.

The calls have a second aspect. He talked about Melissa's lifestyle, about punishment. And all his sexual hints appear in the fragments, we got in the media refer to things he would do, not things, he did. Put both together and you have the mindset of someone, who looks at hookers with kind of morbid fascination of what he considers wrong, if not outright evil. This is consistent with certain mostly African-American congregations in the wider area.

Those are the main points. There are some details more pointing in my opinion to a mission-driven offender, but they are not directly< connected to ethnicity.
On a side note: I profiled Manorville as Caucasian and nobody ever asked me why :floorlaugh:

Peter

 

[PickleChris]

I still cannot help to have the idea of the season these girls went missing drilling in my head. Is a Carnival in town (or in the LI area) for those months? Does it travel to NJ? Stage crew for Jones Beach Concerts also work in AC sometimes? I think we really need to concentrate on the time of year and what LI & AC might have in common the days these women went missing. Is anyone onboard with starting a new thread on this?

 

[Peter Brendt]

I still cannot help to have the idea of the season these girls went missing drilling in my head. Is a Carnival in town (or in the LI area) for those months? Does it travel to NJ? Stage crew for Jones Beach Concerts also work in AC sometimes? I think we really need to concentrate on the time of year and what LI & AC might have in common the days these women went missing. Is anyone onboard with starting a new thread on this?

Another thread to connect AC and GB? REally? We have already so many ...

And when it comes to the timeline, a lot construction guys go south and southwest in the cold months.

Peter

 

[PickleChris]

Another thread to connect AC and GB? REally? We have already so many ...

And when it comes to the timeline, a lot construction guys go south and southwest in the cold months.

Peter

There is not much of a temperature difference between AC and GB at all during the year. So your statement makes sense. I just think a list should be made of what was in the area that travels at those times or what construction projects may have similarities.

Might you have the missing dates of the GB and AC at a quick link?

 

[BKS]

There is not much of a temperature difference between AC and GB at all during the year. So your statement makes sense. I just think a list should be made of what was in the area that travels at those times or what construction projects may have similarities.

Might you have the missing dates of the GB and AC at a quick link?

Most construction workers work a 4 day work week. They have holidays off and they don't work during bad weather such as rain etc. or even impending bad weather, depending on what the job is. Construction for new homes and condos fell dramatically 2006-2010. The first place to look would be for building permits in these locations. It will be harder to track down a single carpenter, for example, who traveled up and down the coast for odd jobs. Those transit types are usually unemployable due to drug addiction or alcoholism.

 

[BKS]

What if our perp travels and is in the construction trade. He works in rundown motels for free room and board and gets a few extra jobs on the side. Once there he can stalk his victims 24 hours a day. If he is working there for an extended period of time he probably would have a master key to the rooms.

 

[Peter Brendt]

What if our perp travels and is in the construction trade. He works in rundown motels for free room and board and gets a few extra jobs on the side. Once there he can stalk his victims 24 hours a day. If he is working there for an extended period of time he probably would have a master key to the rooms.

The whole thing is true for union organized construction workers in bigger construction companies. However, it doesn't fit self-employed subcontractors. And not all subcontractors are drinkers and drug addicts.
Funny, there was the decline in new housing construction mentioned earlier. Because that would make such a subcontractor traveling even more and farther for work. So, maybe, in 2008, he just wasn't somewhere working and didn't return that year to NYC and LI.
However, I think, he is from the wider area. LI, NYC,m but not Oak Beach. The time gap between Melissa Barthelmy's disappearance and the first phone call indicates, he keeps them for a time, not sure though, how long exactly. That needs privacy, so he has to have a place or some kind of work shop in the area. Which means, when he returns to the East Coast it is not exclusively for a construction project, but he would also return to the East Coast if he has no work. Personally, I would think, every time, he returned from the South, one of his first things to do was a little drive by at Gilgo Beach. He may still does that, even knowing that the bodies are gone, the place still holds some memories for him.

Peter

 

[tmacirish1]

Peter Brendt-

I double checked the statistic about sadists and partners. I misread. It said 43% have a partner as in being married. My mistake!

 

[Peter Brendt]

Peter Brendt-

I double checked the statistic about sadists and partners. I misread. It said 43% have a partner as in being married. My mistake!

All is good! I didn't buy anyway in the sadist theory for LISK. Till LE opens the mouth and tells us, there was evidence for extensive torture, I go with mission-driven.

Peter

 

[BKS]

The whole thing is true for union organized construction workers in bigger construction companies. However, it doesn't fit self-employed subcontractors. And not all subcontractors are drinkers and drug addicts.
Funny, there was the decline in new housing construction mentioned earlier. Because that would make such a subcontractor traveling even more and farther for work. So, maybe, in 2008, he just wasn't somewhere working and didn't return that year to NYC and LI.
However, I think, he is from the wider area. LI, NYC,m but not Oak Beach. The time gap between Melissa Barthelmy's disappearance and the first phone call indicates, he keeps them for a time, not sure though, how long exactly. That needs privacy, so he has to have a place or some kind of work shop in the area. Which means, when he returns to the East Coast it is not exclusively for a construction project, but he would also return to the East Coast if he has no work. Personally, I would think, every time, he returned from the South, one of his first things to do was a little drive by at Gilgo Beach. He may still does that, even knowing that the bodies are gone, the place still holds some memories for him.

Peter

Licensed contractors and subcontractors pull "permits" for their work. That permit would show the contractors contact information and license #. Whether they are union doesn't matter. It would be harder to track a transit carpenter, for example that "works under the table" and under the radar of local building officials and the IRS. Most of these type workers are unemployable for reasons of alcoholism, drug addiction, or other antisocial behavior. Also, "special event permits" would tell us what was going on in both areas at that time. There could have been bike rallies, concerts, or even a circus, all would need a "special event permit" from the city or county they were in. Again, that permit would contain contact info for the event organizer.