Fireweed
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- Nov 17, 2013
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There is a reason why this case has kept people riveted for 10 years. To me it is the most bizarre missing person's case I have ever heard of. Sure, plenty of people go missing under weird circumstances, but Maura went missing within a 10 minute time frame (if you get my drift). We have people who are last seen on a Tuesday, and their car is found abandon on a Saturday, and you think, well, anything could have happened in those four days.
But what could have realistically happened in less than 15 minutes? Not a lot. Fred Murray now thinks a "dirtbag" got her. I think that is a possibility, but I cannot help but be convinced by the high improbability of that theory. A young woman who is having some problems, who seems like she is getting away from something, crashes her car in a very remote spot, and then just so happens upon one of those very rare people who is a psycho killer/kidnapper? It seems so very unlikely to me, but John Green over on the Maura blog made a very good point about this deduction that I cannot help but question my once firm conviction on the matter:
We are not deciding probability of a "dirtbag" based upon a random woman walking through that area, we are deciding probability of a "dirtbag" based upon a missing young woman from that area. For example, most days I personally take a walk where I live. I live out in the country and there are not a lot of people around. Every single day that I take a walk, the probability of me running into a psycho killer is minuscule. However, if I did not return from my walk and had vanished, then the probability that I had encountered a rapist/kidnapper/psycho is now very high.
I understand the statistical reasoning behind this logic, but I still just find it very hard to believe that Maura, a person who seemed like she was in the mindset of getting away for the week, just so happened, within a very short time frame, to have run into a very rare random killer.
But what could have realistically happened in less than 15 minutes? Not a lot. Fred Murray now thinks a "dirtbag" got her. I think that is a possibility, but I cannot help but be convinced by the high improbability of that theory. A young woman who is having some problems, who seems like she is getting away from something, crashes her car in a very remote spot, and then just so happens upon one of those very rare people who is a psycho killer/kidnapper? It seems so very unlikely to me, but John Green over on the Maura blog made a very good point about this deduction that I cannot help but question my once firm conviction on the matter:
We are not deciding probability of a "dirtbag" based upon a random woman walking through that area, we are deciding probability of a "dirtbag" based upon a missing young woman from that area. For example, most days I personally take a walk where I live. I live out in the country and there are not a lot of people around. Every single day that I take a walk, the probability of me running into a psycho killer is minuscule. However, if I did not return from my walk and had vanished, then the probability that I had encountered a rapist/kidnapper/psycho is now very high.
I understand the statistical reasoning behind this logic, but I still just find it very hard to believe that Maura, a person who seemed like she was in the mindset of getting away for the week, just so happened, within a very short time frame, to have run into a very rare random killer.