Respectfully, we don't know of what group the killer was and even less, his personal story. We don't even know if he is alive. I came to the conclusion that this is a pure DNA case, and I also believe that life will prompt Japan to change their prohibitive DNA laws, and soon. I can imagine many blocks on the way of genetic testing, one of them might be NPE event in the family, or adoption. But in principle, it is all doable. But, with DNA only.
RSBM: no, we don’t know — that’s why I said
my contention is, and not
I am certain that.
We don’t know he’s alive, no. But if the TMPD are right about his age range, which they revised down very recently, then he would be as young as 40. So if he’s dead, it’s not of old age.
We do, however, know that he was able to access Edwards on some level. We know that he is not from Korea. And we know that if he’s Japanese, he’s able to survive in the shadows for 24 years from the age, supposedly, of around 15. Him simply being American makes more sense to me given his ‘magical’ disappearance and his access to that base.
Re: the DNA laws. The Setagaya Council put forward their official opinion to the central government in favour of changing. So that’s positive. But there is very, very low demand for giving the police more powers in Japan and a near non-existent crime rate. Couple this with the glacial rate of change in Japan (Ryushi’s word), I’m not sure how “soon” it will actually be.
Honestly, what looks most questionable in your military base theory? Any base, much more the foreign one, is "a state in a state." I looked through the yearbooks. There seemed to be a lot of diversity in Yokota base, but it was an island of US culture, maybe much more so than the US itself. And they were busy, these kids, with sports, thespian society, comp labs, or music. Now, the murders happened during the break. But the way it happened, the murderer, it the hit was random, had to be exceptionally impulsive but also exceptionally smart.
Why does he have to be exceptional on any level? As I’ve said many times, these kids had access to cars. They’re learning from a very young age (in comparison to EU standards). It’s not beyond the wit of man to get into your car / dad’s car / jump on a train.
For some reasons, it doesn’t look like it to me. Or else, he had to observe the Miyazawas for a long time. But, it doesn't look this way, as a school kid on Yokota base was not free to roam around Tokyo.
False. I have spoken with many people on Yokota. They were absolutely free to travel into Tokyo. There are videos from the time period of kids doing this very thing on YouTube etc. RE: how long the killer observed the family, I don’t have a strong opinion. The only thing I’m fairly certain on is that he didn’t break in randomly to the first house he saw.
Now, "Korean" vs "Japanese" vs "Chinese" is still unclear. If we are thinking, "he is an American and half-Asian", why not a mere guy with a Caucasian mother and a Japanese father, living in the US and periodically coming to visit grandparents in Tokyo?
Well, according to Dr. M —the only person to have analysed the killer’s DNA and have spoken publicly about the matter— the mother is not Caucasian but has some sort of Mediterranean ancestry. Now I’ve spoken many times about the flawed conclusions that can be drawn from this somewhat misleading statement. Having since spoken to Dr. M, I have my doubts about how much was *his* opinion and how much was leaked from his lab which has since been attributed to him by history. But re: your theory, yes — it could’ve been such a person. But again, a person that’s able to get on to Edwards. And a person that would never again be able to return to Japan after 2007 when the fingerprinting system comes into play at airports. Now, he could simply opt to take up Japanese nationality but Japan does not allow dual nationals. So now he would be locking himself into a country where he’s the most wanted fugitive. It doesn’t really fit. Again, it’s possible. But what single solid reason have you got against my theory? The fact that Yokota is diverse? That the kids were busy with their clubs? I’m not really understanding.
This looks more like the profile, school is over, he flew in again and is flying back towards the New Year?
We also know that the Chief had men at the airports very early on. That they were looking for men with hand injuries all over the city pretty much instantly. Is it possible he went from the house directly to the airport? I guess so. But not one single person there remembered a young man with a hand injury? He’s not picked up by one camera? He doesn’t stand out on any single manifest? (We know the Chief was going over them early on).
Again, I can’t say with any certainty that the killer IS a military brat that used Yokota to both hide and leave Japan beyond the reaches of the TMPD. Only that it fits the facts and, after 15 years of following this case, I haven’t personally seen a more convincing theory. When I do, I’ll trade up! JMO