Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #3

[fridaybaker]

Here is the problem that I see with the statue and why it doesn't figure into my calculations about the murder. First of all, although I'm not sure how far away it was found from the house, it certainly doesn't seem like it was next to it. I believe it was behind the house, but across a river (more like a stream) and found several weeks later.

So, I just have a hard time even connecting it with the murder in the sense of place and time. Secondly, though, even if it were left as a connection to the murder, I think it's just as likely that anyone else could have left it there, rather than the killer or his family. These murders involved the utterly savage destruction of an entire family, including two innocent children, in a country where murders such as this are just incredibly rare. I'd almost think it unusual if someone from the public didn't leave some sort of commemoration (or supplication, or whatever) at the site. Unless it can be somehow traced to the killer or his family, it seems extraneous to the investigation, at least to me.

 

[Janitor101]

Does anyone know if the balcony door was found locked?

 

[lilykaluva]

I dunno about the 21 thing, but I wonder if this could be done at an embassy outside the country? Some European countries do that I think, although I dunno what happens in Japan.

He could have left Japan as a 22yr old Japanese student, from the base to the US or anywhere in the world for that matter. The official age range is 15-25, so it could be that he was beyond 21.

And the last part, if he was a foreign passport holder, then maybe. Coz he would have to get fingerprinted upon entry or exit. But if he had a Japanese passport, then I don’t think he is in anymore fear of prosecution in Japan after all this time.

Do I think he is living in Japan? Probably not. But it doesn’t have to be for the guy to have a US passport. Perfectly conceivable the guy has a Japanese passport and just lives outside Japan, or maybe even a third nationality at this point.

It can be done at any Consulate, yes. You don't have to be in a country to renounce citizenship; in fact most of the time people aren't. I just had a friend do this with his child for Korea to avoid military service.

 

[Charlot123]

RSBM: no, we don’t know — that’s why I said my contention is, and not I am certain that.

We don’t know he’s alive, no. But if the TMPD are right about his age range, which they revised down very recently, then he would be as young as 40. So if he’s dead, it’s not of old age.

Well, if he is local, the Japanese newspapers were abuzz with the news of a suicide of a local boy whose father was a well-known person in the community. Shortly afterwards. What do we know…

We do, however, know that he was able to access Edwards on some level. We know that he is not from Korea. And we know that if he’s Japanese, he’s able to survive in the shadows for 24 years from the age, supposedly, of around 15. Him simply being American makes more sense to me given his ‘magical’ disappearance and his access to that base.

Respectfully, we do not know if we was able to access the base. Here is an example I once used: we have bases here. And I assume, they are closed enough. But, every year there are some air shows and there is a mini golf nearby. One drives to the South, and the drive to the south of the state as opposed to the North is horribly uninspiring. Hence this mini golf is making a lot of money. Now, where would one take the sand from? If anyone stole a ball or is carrying it in a hand to exercise, or something alike, here is the sand.
I’d check if there is publicly accessible mini golf court next to EAB first.

(Not to say, i still might have some Black Sea sand in my house and I last was at the Black Sea, probably, before the collapse of the USSR. Yet, I love conch necklaces. You collect small white conchae at the seaside then bring back and ask your dentist to drill holes in them then thread in a small copper chain and make knots on both sides of each conch…but the sand can still be there. Unless I covered it with pink nail polish. Kids do these things. Any conch or stone art.)

Re: the DNA laws. The Setagaya Council put forward their official opinion to the central government in favour of changing. So that’s positive. But there is very, very low demand for giving the police more powers in Japan and a near non-existent crime rate. Couple this with the glacial rate of change in Japan (Ryushi’s word), I’m not sure how “soon” it will actually be.

As I have said, wait how things change with their immigration laws. BTW, they have other crime, too. Low, indeed, as compared to the rest of the world.

Why does he have to be exceptional on any level? As I’ve said many times, these kids had access to cars. They’re learning from a very young age (in comparison to EU standards). It’s not beyond the wit of man to get into your car / dad’s car / jump on a train.

False. I have spoken with many people on Yokota. They were absolutely free to travel into Tokyo. There are videos from the time period of kids doing this very thing on YouTube etc. RE: how long the killer observed the family, I don’t have a strong opinion. The only thing I’m fairly certain on is that he didn’t break in randomly to the first house he saw.

Well, according to Dr. M —the only person to have analysed the killer’s DNA and have spoken publicly about the matter— the mother is not Caucasian but has some sort of Mediterranean ancestry. Now I’ve spoken many times about the flawed conclusions that can be drawn from this somewhat misleading statement. Having since spoken to Dr. M, I have my doubts about how much was *his* opinion and how much was leaked from his lab which has since been attributed to him by history. But re: your theory, yes — it could’ve been such a person. But again, a person that’s able to get on to Edwards. And a person that would never again be able to return to Japan after 2007 when the fingerprinting system comes into play at airports. Now, he could simply opt to take up Japanese nationality but Japan does not allow dual nationals. So now he would be locking himself into a country where he’s the most wanted fugitive. It doesn’t really fit. Again, it’s possible. But what single solid reason have you got against my theory? The fact that Yokota is diverse? That the kids were busy with their clubs? I’m not really understanding.

Respectfully, I have no clue either against of for your theory. It merely lodges on that sand from EAB, but remove that sand, and weigh in the probabilities, and Yokota Air Base will be at the bottom of the list. This is what I always do in such cases, remove the “main clue” and see if other clues lead you to the same space.

Granted, I don’t know much. But no one does. For one, nothing is known about the Miyazawas, their lives, friends, relationships and hence, we basically have no theories.

We also know that the Chief had men at the airports very early on. That they were looking for men with hand injuries all over the city pretty much instantly. Is it possible he went from the house directly to the airport? I guess so. But not one single person there remembered a young man with a hand injury? He’s not picked up by one camera? He doesn’t stand out on any single manifest? (We know the Chief was going over them early on).

And this is what bothers me. How do they know that his wound was on the hand? What about the neck? Asians wore masks in flu seasons. What about the neck? How do we know it was his hand? Chance is higher, but then, they should know the shape, right?

Again, I can’t say with any certainty that the killer IS a military brat that used Yokota to both hide and leave Japan beyond the reaches of the TMPD. Only that it fits the facts and, after 15 years of following this case, I haven’t personally seen a more convincing theory. When I do, I’ll trade up! JMO

It is an interesting theory, no doubt. But there will be no proof in this case but DNA.

BTW, he could be Korean and from Korea. My understanding is, Japan accused Korea too soon and then had to retract the accusation in order to get access to Korean fingerprints. But, he still can be Korean. He can be anyone. Statistically, still, most likely, Japanese.

One thing: even if TMPD did the most contemporary DNA tests (I hope they did, or will do!) no one can say the person was 15. Not even the Parabon. There is usually a certain age range. They can shorten it or widen depending on telomerase activity, but no one can be as precise as one year.

Another thing: if they are certain the perpetrator is a foreigner, won’t he be outside of the Japanese DNA laws of privacy? Technically, a foreigner’s DNA they can study. So either they are not so sure that he is a foreigner, or something else.

I can definitely see another thing. Look at answers of kids on the base, I think it was 1999. They were talking about cloning humans in XXI century. So, they definitely knew about DNA and were taught well. This…

 

[FacelessPodcast]

The TMPD also don’t seem to have prints for entry or exit of the killer, so unless he just appeared out of thin air, at some point he did consciously avoid leaving stuff behind, atleast initially.

Yes, he's wearing gloves when he enters the house. He's wearing gloves when he's strangling Rei. He takes them off after stabbing Mikio. Clearly, his plan was not to leave everything behind initially. Once he bleeds everywhere, it seems as if that plan goes out the window.

What is to suggest he didn’t just enter in from the garage into the house Raises a whole lot of questions, primarily regarding the mode of entry, and the order of kills if thats the case.

I can't tell you why the TMPD is adamant he never enters the garage, or what they're basing it on. But I would assume a total lack of blood, prints, or fibres. Also, I would imagine that from the outside it was impossible to access the house if it was shut / locked.

Although most people have speculated its a highlighter ink which considering the student background and the cram school stuff isn’t out of the ordinary.

I don’t think the killer is as young as 15 though. I dunno what the age for driving is in Japan, but I don’t think its 15. Ofcourse we don’t have much evidence of a car being involved, but if its a possibility he needs to be of a certain age to get a licence.

My contention is that he's not Japanese so the age for driving in Japan is neither here nor there. I can tell you that 15 is more than old enough to be driving in the US (via a permit, I think the youngest you can get your actual license is 16). Clearly, if the killer was using a car, he was probably breaking the law by driving off-base / driving alone without a supervising adult. I don't know what permits you would need to drive with a US license in Japan 24 years ago -- an international license which is very simple to get, but would require an actual full license. So, it's safe to assume that if he was willing to slaughter an entire family, the rules of the road weren't going to bother him. And you're right, there's zero evidence he arrives / leaves by car. Only that it would explain how he's able to remain invisible / be seen by absolutely nobody in Tokyo's most populous ward.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Here is the problem that I see with the statue and why it doesn't figure into my calculations about the murder. First of all, although I'm not sure how far away it was found from the house, it certainly doesn't seem like it was next to it. I believe it was behind the house, but across a river (more like a stream) and found several weeks later.

So, I just have a hard time even connecting it with the murder in the sense of place and time. Secondly, though, even if it were left as a connection to the murder, I think it's just as likely that anyone else could have left it there, rather than the killer or his family. These murders involved the utterly savage destruction of an entire family, including two innocent children, in a country where murders such as this are just incredibly rare. I'd almost think it unusual if someone from the public didn't leave some sort of commemoration (or supplication, or whatever) at the site. Unless it can be somehow traced to the killer or his family, it seems extraneous to the investigation, at least to me.

I agree. I always assumed this was left in the same way that people leave flowers after a tragedy, even if the victim is completely unknown to the person. The fact that we don't know where the flowers came from / we don't know who left them behind wouldn't necessarily suggest the flowers were connected to the killer. Would that change anything if there was a card in those flowers that had the number 6? Maybe, maybe not. What exactly does it mean? Would is even the implication? It's all just too nebulous imo.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Does anyone know if the balcony door was found locked?

For whatever reason, the balcony door has never been discussed by the TMPD as far as I know.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

It can be done at any Consulate, yes. You don't have to be in a country to renounce citizenship; in fact most of the time people aren't. I just had a friend do this with his child for Korea to avoid military service.

Unrelated to the case but, funnily enough, the UK charges you several hundred pounds to renounce your citizenship!

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Well, if he is local, the Japanese newspapers were abuzz with the news of a suicide of a local boy whose father was a well-known person in the community. Shortly afterwards. What do we know…

RSBM: The suicide of a local boy? I don't follow, forgive me.

Respectfully, we do not know if we was able to access the base.

No, we do not know for certain. As I have said ten million times, this is merely my working theory. But if the TMPD have told me that yes, they think that's where the sand is from but no, they won't tell me how or why they reached that conclusion, should I then pretend it didn't exist? Is it possible the sand somehow ended up in his bag without the killer having been to the base? Yes, obviously. But does it simply make more sense for him to have been there himself? To me, yes. I'm yet to hear convincing ideas for why the former is more likely than the latter. Respectfully, hour glasses or stress balls or whatever don't change that.

Here is an example I once used: we have bases here. And I assume, they are closed enough. But, every year there are some air shows and there is a mini golf nearby. One drives to the South, and the drive to the south of the state as opposed to the North is horribly uninspiring. Hence this mini golf is making a lot of money. Now, where would one take the sand from? If anyone stole a ball or is carrying it in a hand to exercise, or something alike, here is the sand.
I’d check if there is publicly accessible mini golf court next to EAB first.

Edwards does have an open day (or did). It's once a year and by invitation, as I understand it. Do I find that more probable that the killer went out into the middle of that desert for an open day on an American air base in the middle of nowhere versus the implication of accessing the base the other 364 days of the year? No.

As I have said, wait how things change with their immigration laws. BTW, they have other crime, too. Low, indeed, as compared to the rest of the world.

I'm aware they have crime there, yes. Which is why I said near-non existent. Not entirely crime-free.

Respectfully, I have no clue either against of for your theory. It merely lodges on that sand from EAB, but remove that sand, and weigh in the probabilities, and Yokota Air Base will be at the bottom of the list. This is what I always do in such cases, remove the “main clue” and see if other clues lead you to the same space.

It's an interesting idea. Though, not to be glib about it, but if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a bicycle. That sand WAS there. I spoke to LE directly about it. You are free to doubt its existence if you like. Also, IMO it is NOT the only thing that points to America.

Granted, I don’t know much. But no one does. For one, nothing is known about the Miyazawas, their lives, friends, relationships and hence, we basically have no theories.

We do know some things about the Miyazawas. Some of this is aired on Faceless. I spent a long while talking to Setsuko about them. And we do have theories. Obviously, I have mine. Others have theirs. Some I think are entirely possible. Others I think are so wrong to the point of being offensive (Ichihashi etc).

And this is what bothers me. How do they know that his wound was on the hand? What about the neck? Asians wore masks in flu seasons. What about the neck? How do we know it was his hand? Chance is higher, but then, they should know the shape, right?

They know it was on his hand because he was wearing gloves as he stabs Mikio. Those gloves are then sliced up and filled with his blood.

It is an interesting theory, no doubt. But there will be no proof in this case but DNA.

There is plenty of proof beyond DNA.

BTW, he could be Korean and from Korea.

How could he be a Korean citizen and not be on their database? Perhaps if he left as a baby? That's possible, yes. I think the government takes your prints as a teenager. But then we would be talking about a Korean man who has never lived in Korea again / never engaged with the Korean consulate abroad / who would likely be dodging their military draft etc.

My understanding is, Japan accused Korea too soon and then had to retract the accusation in order to get access to Korean fingerprints.

They didn't accuse them of anything. My understanding is that they asked for help with checking these fingerprints and initially the response was negative. When it was understood that an entire family were involved etc, their counterparts in Seoul changed their minds.

But, he still can be Korean. He can be anyone. Statistically, still, most likely, Japanese.

One thing: even if TMPD did the most contemporary DNA tests (I hope they did, or will do!) no one can say the person was 15. Not even the Parabon. There is usually a certain age range. They can shorten it or widen depending on telomerase activity, but no one can be as precise as one year.

They almost certainly have not done these tests due to their laws. The age range, which they revised recently, is 15-24 on the night of the murders.

Another thing: if they are certain the perpetrator is a foreigner, won’t he be outside of the Japanese DNA laws of privacy? Technically, a foreigner’s DNA they can study. So either they are not so sure that he is a foreigner, or something else.

I think this would be impossible. Ultimately, they would have to present a case to the court and if their evidence is based on investigative techniques that were outside of the law, then that would imperil the accused's conviction.

I can definitely see another thing. Look at answers of kids on the base, I think it was 1999. They were talking about cloning humans in XXI century. So, they definitely knew about DNA and were taught well. This…

I have looked at these kids extensively. I have spoken to many of them. I'm not sure how much the killer would've thought about DNA but certainly he wore gloves. I assume he was primarily trying to hide his face and prints. All jmo.

 

[Charlot123]

Unrelated to the case but, funnily enough, the UK charges you several hundred pounds to renounce your citizenship!

What an ascendency of bureaucracy would it be if they charged you tax on top of it and then you could claim it back as non-citizen, lol!

And seriously, I was thinking about the regular situation, one parent is a US citizen, another one - Japanese, the kid is born in the us and travels to Japan to see grandparents and brush up rusty Japanese during the holidays. At what age would they need fingerprints in 2001 to exit/leave Japan. And would they?

And, Nic, TMPD can’t rely on Y/mito to determine ethnicity. Neither is indicative of current ethnicity as they get passed over on dad’s/mom’s side and mutate over thousands of years.

N haplogroup is considered part of O clad…

A counter-clockwise northern route of the Y-chromosome haplogroup N from Southeast Asia towards Europe - European Journal of Human Genetics

A large part of Y chromosome lineages in East European and East Asian human populations belong to haplogroup (hg) NO, which is composed of two sister clades N-M231 and O-M175. The O-clade is relatively old (around 30 thousand years (ky)) and encompasses the vast majority of east and Southeast...

www.nature.com

So at least minimal tests of autosomes the TMPD should do before they even comment on ethnicity.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

What an ascendency of bureaucracy would it be if they charged you tax on top of it and then you could claim it back as non-citizen, lol!

Don't get me started on the British government / bureaucracy. It's not good for my blood pressure...

And seriously, I was thinking about the regular situation, one parent is a US citizen, another one - Japanese, the kid is born in the us and travels to Japan to see grandparents and brush up rusty Japanese during the holidays. At what age would they need fingerprints in 2001 to exit/leave Japan. And would they?

You need to 'become Japanese' at 20. I know several people who are half Japanese past that age. They all opted to 'be' Japanese but are not living in Japan. So they have to come up with reasons to not be living in Japan full-time. Work, studies etc. But Japan, if they were to find out that any of them had another nationality, could immediately revoke their Japanese citizenship. This process has no 'trial' or anything related.

And, Nic, TMPD can’t rely on Y/mito to determine ethnicity. Neither is indicative of current ethnicity as they get passed over on dad’s/mom’s side and mutate over thousands of years.

It was Dr. M's lab who came up with the mito thing. Not the TMPD. They came to him for a second opinion on the results of their own lab. Somebody working for him leaked his findings to the press. The TMPD actually wanted this information removed from Wikipedia etc.

N haplogroup is considered part of O clad…

A counter-clockwise northern route of the Y-chromosome haplogroup N from Southeast Asia towards Europe - European Journal of Human Genetics

A large part of Y chromosome lineages in East European and East Asian human populations belong to haplogroup (hg) NO, which is composed of two sister clades N-M231 and O-M175. The O-clade is relatively old (around 30 thousand years (ky)) and encompasses the vast majority of east and Southeast...

www.nature.com

So at least minimal tests of autosomes the TMPD should do before they even comment on ethnicity.

They have not commented on ethnicity. You've seen the Miyazawa page on the police website. Race / ethnicity is not mentioned there.

 

[Charlot123]

RSBM: The suicide of a local boy? I don't follow, forgive me.

About the local boy. It was the article I found when following the ones about pet hating boards. I guess I have to find it again. In Japanese. I believe it happened around February of 2001 but not sure.

It's an interesting idea. Though, not to be glib about it, but if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a bicycle. That sand WAS there. I spoke to LE directly about it. You are free to doubt its existence if you like. Also, IMO it is NOT the only thing that points to America.

I don’t doubt the sand. I question how fast can we connect the sand with the murderer. Nic - nothing can be proven without DNA. (( Especially sand, which is soil. Tons of ways to explain it.

We do know some things about the Miyazawas. Some of this is aired on Faceless. I spent a long while talking to Setsuko about them. And we do have theories. Obviously, I have mine. Others have theirs. Some I think are entirely possible. Others I think are so wrong to the point of being offensive (Ichihashi etc).

Here is the question about Miyazawas. An Irie’s family had some voices/argument at the front entrance that night. Why not assume that he could have entered via the front door?

They know it was on his hand because he was wearing gloves as he stabs Mikio. Those gloves are then sliced up and filled with his blood.

So… if they were sliced up, it means they should know the form/shape of scars, right? Not just on hands/arms, but shape, too, right? That could be a lot.

There is plenty of proof beyond DNA.


They almost certainly have not done these tests due to their laws. The age range, which they revised recently, is 15-24 on the night of the murders.

If they revised, it means a lot to me. It means, something has been done.

I think this would be impossible. Ultimately, they would have to present a case to the court and if their evidence is based on investigative techniques that were outside of the law, then that would imperil the accused's conviction.

Many countries have unreasonable, paranoid laws about DNA. It is at the time of discussing CRISPR gene editing… That probably means that Japan has to make own database. I think they are losing more on the laws but whatever. If they had own database, at least they’d be able to state, “no, he is not a Japanese citizen.” On a side note - heck, how is transplantology possible without genealogy?

I have looked at these kids extensively. I have spoken to many of them. I'm not sure how much the killer would've thought about DNA but certainly he wore gloves. I assume he was primarily trying to hide his face and prints. All jmo.

This is where my biggest issue is. You say that the person is smart. And to pull such thing while living at the base, one has to be smart. But I really tried to look less at the faces and more on the life these kids were offered. Computer lab, chemistry, biology. The way these kids answered indicated logic, too. I don't know how he could miss DNA if they were discussing flying cars and cloning. Maybe he was dazed and dissociating after the murders.

 

[lilykaluva]

Statistically, still, most likely, Japanese.

I thought the DNA makes it more likely they are ethnically Korean or Chinese as opposed to Japanese?

While there are actually Zainichi in Japan (Korean ethnic, born/raised in Japan), there is actually a complication here: up until the early 1990s, Zainichi people would all be fingerprinted as foreigners and were not considered citizens. It's actually kinda a huge protest thing. Nowadays they are considered permanent residents so they have more rights, but they are not inherently citizens unless a parent is Japanese. I think it used to be just if the father is Japanese but I believe that changed; could be wrong though.

The naturalization process for the Zainichi is pretty... complicated, to put it mildly, and discouraging for many even today. And that would require fingerprinting, along with documenting your family history and getting Korean documents even if your family had lived in Japan for decades. So if the killer hasn't been to Korea, they probably don't have Japanese citizenship. If they live in Japan just as a permanent resident, they could theoretically evade authorities, but considering the DNA I would be surprised if the possibility hasn't occurred to the TMPD and been investigated.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

About the local boy. It was the article I found when following the ones about pet hating boards. I guess I have to find it again. In Japanese. I believe it happened around February of 2001 but not sure.

Ah, I haven't seen this.

I don’t doubt the sand. I question how fast can we connect the sand with the murderer. Nic - nothing can be proven without DNA. (( Especially sand, which is soil. Tons of ways to explain it.

It's in his bag and only his fingerprints and DNA is on that bag.

Here is the question about Miyazawas. An Irie’s family had some voices/argument at the front entrance that night. Why not assume that he could have entered via the front door?

Where are you getting this about An Irie's family overhearing an argument? If he enters the front door, then Mikio lets him in. And that means Mikio trusts him to be upstairs with his family quite late at night. Visiting someone's home is not hugely common in Japan, either. And if he's close enough to Mikio to be let in in such a fashion, how do the TMPD miss that man?

So… if they were sliced up, it means they should know the form/shape of scars, right? Not just on hands/arms, but shape, too, right? That could be a lot.

Roughly, they know yes. I don't know how exact the cuts were in the gloves. The closest I can get it to is 1) on the side of his hand and 2) on his little finger.

If they revised, it means a lot to me. It means, something has been done.

Many countries have unreasonable, paranoid laws about DNA. It is at the time of discussing CRISPR gene editing… That probably means that Japan has to make own database. I think they are losing more on the laws but whatever. If they had own database, at least they’d be able to state, “no, he is not a Japanese citizen.” On a side note - heck, how is transplantology possible without genealogy?


This is where my biggest issue is. You say that the person is smart. And to pull such thing while living at the base, one has to be smart. But I really tried to look less at the faces and more on the life these kids were offered. Computer lab, chemistry, biology. The way these kids answered indicated logic, too. I don't know how he could miss DNA if they were discussing flying cars and cloning. Maybe he was dazed and dissociating after the murders.

As I say, I don't think he planned on leaving behind traces, blood, clothes etc. But his plan had to pivot. Seeing as I think he knew he was going to leave anyway, he simply made the snap decision to flee.

 

[Charlot123]

I thought the DNA makes it more likely they are ethnically Korean or Chinese as opposed to Japanese?

While there are actually Zainichi in Japan (Korean ethnic, born/raised in Japan), there is actually a complication here: up until the early 1990s, Zainichi people would all be fingerprinted as foreigners and were not considered citizens. It's actually kinda a huge protest thing. Nowadays they are considered permanent residents so they have more rights, but they are not inherently citizens unless a parent is Japanese. I think it used to be just if the father is Japanese but I believe that changed; could be wrong though.

The naturalization process for the Zainichi is pretty... complicated, to put it mildly, and discouraging for many even today. And that would require fingerprinting, along with documenting your family history and getting Korean documents even if your family had lived in Japan for decades. So if the killer hasn't been to Korea, they probably don't have Japanese citizenship. If they live in Japan just as a permanent resident, they could theoretically evade authorities, but considering the DNA I would be surprised if the possibility hasn't occurred to the TMPD and been investigated.

Answering your first question. Theoretically, it would seem more likely for them to be ethnic Koreans, but:

I Googled: how many Koreans live in Japan? 1 million. How many Korean travelers to Japan at any given time point? Let us be generous and add 1 more million, if 1/5 of them have the same haplogroup, it will be 400,000. Probably, less.
Now how many Japanese live in Japan? 125 + mln. I divided it by 13. Got 9,615,384.6153846.
So even if the haplogroup is more prevalent in Koreans, by the power of numbers, is it more possible that the murderer comes out of a 400,000 pool or 9.6-mln pool?

Of course, it is all old. Nowadays there will be more in-depth tests so we will be talking about subclades/family names. Nowadays, we won't have to second-guess. But the logic behind: "1/5 Koreans and 1/13 Japanese, hence, he is Korean" makes zero sense from the get-go considering that it happened in Setagaya.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

I thought the DNA makes it more likely they are ethnically Korean or Chinese as opposed to Japanese?

That's what Dr. M says. The only person to have analysed the killer's DNA and spoken on it publicly.

While there are actually Zainichi in Japan (Korean ethnic, born/raised in Japan), there is actually a complication here: up until the early 1990s, Zainichi people would all be fingerprinted as foreigners and were not considered citizens. It's actually kinda a huge protest thing. Nowadays they are considered permanent residents so they have more rights, but they are not inherently citizens unless a parent is Japanese. I think it used to be just if the father is Japanese but I believe that changed; could be wrong though.

The naturalization process for the Zainichi is pretty... complicated, to put it mildly, and discouraging for many even today. And that would require fingerprinting, along with documenting your family history and getting Korean documents even if your family had lived in Japan for decades. So if the killer hasn't been to Korea, they probably don't have Japanese citizenship. If they live in Japan just as a permanent resident, they could theoretically evade authorities, but considering the DNA I would be surprised if the possibility hasn't occurred to the TMPD and been investigated.

This is great context. And I would be astonished if the TMPD hadn't considered it. Speaking to one of the most respected English language writers in Japan he said this: "Nic, if it has occurred to you, it will have occurred to the TMPD. The guys in that division are sharp. They have their problems but chasing down eventualities isn't one of them."

 

[fridaybaker]

Sorry Nic. I thought you said that he "brought gloves but didn't use them". Have I forgotten? My memory is going down the drain fast...

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Sorry Nic. I thought you said that he "brought gloves but didn't use them". Have I forgotten? My memory is going down the drain fast...

He brought them, yes. But took them off after he stabs Mikio. Sorry for any confusion.

 

[Janitor101]

I'm still not 100% convinced that this "bag" with the sandy residue even belongs to the killer. What if he bought it cheap from someone or even stolen it fro somewhere.

I also have difficulty thinking the killer might be someone stationed at a military base. How far is the closest military base from the Miyzawa's home? How does the killer zero-in on this particular family from a military base? Did he drive around endless neighborhoods searching for the perfect home for his home invasion plan? Or was he on foot? This just isn't logical to me.

It seems more likely to me he was either familiar with the family beforehand possibly in a shop/store situation where he was working, or he frequented the park until his plan began to take shape. I think he was stalking them and watching the family's routine carefully and was quite possibly inside the home at some point. He correctly identified an extremely small window in which he could drop down into the bathroom without being seen or heard. Some degree of planning went into this or he was just the luckiest killer ipon the planet.

 

[Charlot123]

I'm still not 100% convinced that this "bag" with the sandy residue even belongs to the killer. What if he bought it cheap from someone or even stolen it fro somewhere.

I also have difficulty thinking the killer might be someone stationed at a military base. How far is the closest military base from the Miyzawa's home? How does the killer zero-in on this particular family from a military base? Did he drive around endless neighborhoods searching for the perfect home for his home invasion plan? Or was he on foot? This just isn't logical to me.

It seems more likely to me he was either familiar with the family beforehand possibly in a shop/store situation where he was working, or he frequented the park until his plan began to take shape. I think he was stalking them and watching the family's routine carefully and was quite possibly inside the home at some point. He correctly identified an extremely small window in which he could drop down into the bathroom without being seen or heard. Some degree of planning went into this or he was just the luckiest killer ipon the planet.

There was sticky skateboard tape in that bag, if someone is interested. TMPD mentioned and discussed it. So either we mention all connections or none.