Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #3

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I'm still not 100% convinced that this "bag" with the sandy residue even belongs to the killer. What if he bought it cheap from someone or even stolen it fro somewhere.
RSBM: I've answered this countless times throughout the thread but -- yes, it's possible. Then again, if it's not his actual bag, how can there only be his fingerprints on it, only his DNA? Did he clean out the previous owners forensic traces? But in such a way which still leaves sand grains in there?
I also have difficulty thinking the killer might be someone stationed at a military base. How far is the closest military base from the Miyzawa's home?
What's hard to imagine about the killer is stationed at the military base? A quick google search and:

*Yumiko-chan
*Girard Incident
*Rape-murder of Rina Shimabukuro
*Again, in Okinawa
*Okinawa Rape Incident

On and on it goes. Is it the mere notion of a serviceman murdering them? At any rate, my contention is not that the killer is actually stationed. It's that his family is.

In terms of distance, it's around a 30 minute drive, around 45 minutes on the direct train to nearby Ogikubo.
How does the killer zero-in on this particular family from a military base? Did he drive around endless neighborhoods searching for the perfect home for his home invasion plan? Or was he on foot? This just isn't logical to me.
We don't know. It's one of the main questions in this case. If we knew how he chose them, we'd probably know who the killer is by now. But given that kids on base frequently travelled into Tokyo, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he saw them and marked them for death. I have an idea of how that happened re: my POI. But let's ignore him for a moment. I would imagine he was in Tokyo, shopping, hanging out, whatever. He had come in via train which is the norm. The murders themselves, I lean towards him using a car.
It seems more likely to me he was either familiar with the family beforehand possibly in a shop/store situation where he was working, or he frequented the park until his plan began to take shape.
If he's a local, how does he evade the TMPD? I guess anything is possible but I don't buy that.
I think he was stalking them and watching the family's routine carefully and was quite possibly inside the home at some point. He correctly identified an extremely small window in which he could drop down into the bathroom without being seen or heard. Some degree of planning went into this or he was just the luckiest killer ipon the planet.
Getting into that window without being seen is possible. Though he leaves zero fibres in the window frame. But did you see the reconstruction video? It would be impossible to do it silently. Moreover, the reconstruction shows how impossible it was for the man to get into the bathroom headfirst comfortably. We simply don't know how he get into the house. But the bathroom window doesn't make a load of sense to me. Though him being lucky -- hard agree. All JMO
 
Having a decent grasp of Nic's primary working theory, I've decided to try to run it down some. I've been going back into the early part of the first thread, where various theories are mentioned, and I just don't see any other right now that really pans out that much.

Keeping in mind that all of the evidence doesn't have to point to the correct theory, but that none of it can contradict the correct theory, I'm trying to decide how some of the evidence fits into the Yakota AFB student line of thought.

My first piece of evidence that I'm trying to fit into it is the drawers/papers/documents. Does it necessarily conflict? I see a couple of possible reasons for the drawers being pulled out and papers strewn about. First, what I've mentioned before: The family is dead, but the adrenaline is still pumping. He's getting tired, but the adrenaline isn't like a spigot- it doesn't just turn off. So, he simply targets whatever he thinks of first, which is pulling out drawers and throwing papers around. Another possibility: He's waiting for the AFB curfew to lift, and needs something to do. "Trashing the place" will suffice. The personal space (drawers) and the papers could even serve as a sort of "extension" of the family, so they're destroyed, or displaced, as well.

Of course, there could be other reasons for the papers all over, but I think this could be one of the pieces of evidence that fits the student theory, or at least, doesn't contradict it. (As far as defecating well, perhaps at some point he just had to go...)

Thoughts?
 
I guess they found similar dyes that Mikio owned in the garage and initially thought that could be a connection.

The lab in Chiba then points out it’s just highlighter / common paint, and the connection disappears.

When the Chinese lab said it was "highlighter" did they definitely mean highlighter pen? I ask because "highlighter" could be used to describe lots of things, especially if the original publication was translated from Chinese or Japanese.

You put highlights in hair, for example.
 
When the Chinese lab said it was "highlighter" did they definitely mean highlighter pen? I ask because "highlighter" could be used to describe lots of things, especially if the original publication was translated from Chinese or Japanese.

You put highlights in hair, for example.
The TMPD lab is in Chiba not China!
 
Oops, sorry I misread! I thought you meant a sample had been sent to a Chinese lab.

The same question still applies. Is it possible their use of the term "highlighter," or a translation of that, might refer to something other than a highlighter pen?
I think they did mean highlighter pen. Which jives with them saying the killer "lived the student lifestyle," I guess.
 
I think they did mean highlighter pen. Which jives with them saying the killer "lived the student lifestyle," I guess.

Thanks, I was just confused because there seemed to be some suggestion in other posts that the fluorescent "stuff" was a powder. A highlighter pen would leave a liquid stain, but probably not a powder residue.

For a student, or someone in the theatre community, I wondered if it could have been some kind of make-up such as this highlighter powder:

 
While all theories deserve consideration until a case is resolved, some raise more questions than they answer. Take, for instance, the idea that the killer was a teenager from a US military base in Japan. If we follow that path, we’re faced with a mix of oddities.

Imagine a teenage boy, presumably underage and financially supported by his middle-class parents—given the selective nature of military base staff. Yet, his wardrobe is an eclectic mix of locally sourced, mainly discount store finds. Why is his clothing distinctly Japanese, with not a single American brand in sight? Isn’t it odd? After all, these families, patriotic enough to serve abroad, would likely cherish American brands as a small comfort from home.

Instead, we find him in cheap synthetic leather sneakers from a possibly Korean-made British brand (Slazenger, seriously?) while his peers are strutting around in Nike—the quintessential choice for American youth at the time. OK, some could enjoy ASICS, for a change. And let's not overlook his weapon of choice—a sashimi knife bought from a local supermarket. Another distinctly Japanese element in the narrative. Did he detest American products so much that he excluded everything American from his life? At 15-16?

Why drive all the way, underage, through Tokyo, only to not linger in the victim’s house? Was he there to test his sashimi knife or his own nerves?

Then there’s the mysterious bird droppings found in his pocket—completely overlooked in the grand debate. These weren’t just any droppings but likely from indoor birds like canaries or finches, possibly from a bird enclosure with a sand bath (a common feature). Bird owners purchase specially purified sand, not too alkaline, similar to that from the Mojave Desert, in bags. It’s more mundane, perhaps, but it’s there—ignored yet significant.

Consider the gloves. Amongst the budget-friendly attire, we find an oddly luxurious pair of authentic leather gloves with fur lining—worth almost half the price of a Uniqlo jacket. This splurge stands out like a sore thumb. But it’s not impossible to imagine he acquired them opportunistically, perhaps picking them up off a train where someone might have left them. Did the TMPD track lost property on train lines? We don’t know. A simple check could have been revealing (timing, line, location).

Back to our hypothetical base boy. Military bases keep meticulous logs of entrances and exits. Even if residents have some freedom of movement, it doesn’t mean they are unregistered. These logs would show who was in or out on that fateful night. If the TMPD had any real interest, wouldn’t they start there?

And then there’s the sand found in the bag—officially identified as from the Mojave Desert. Despite this reveal on the Japanese wiki page, we’re left wondering how it connects to our supposed suspect or any specific location like Edwards. The TMPD hasn’t disclosed their sand samples or findings. There are many ways that sand could have ended up in the killer’s bag—through a bird’s bath, his socks, money, a stress ball, or even a broken hourglass (or a sauna sand clock—Japanese do love their saunas). We know there were only a few grains of this sand, not a sealed and signed bag. And how rubbish ends up in our bags is as much a mystery as socks disappearing in the washing machine.

So, while every angle must be explored, some theories end up more perplexing than illuminating. Instead of clarity, they deepen the mystery.
 
If he enters the front door, then Mikio lets him in. And that means Mikio trusts him to be upstairs with his family quite late at night. Visiting someone's home is not hugely common in Japan, either. And if he's close enough to Mikio to be let in in such a fashion, how do the TMPD miss that man?

According to the Japanese wiki page, Mikio was found in his outdoor clothes, with one foot bare. Also, he had multiple stab wounds on his legs and buttocks. Considering the supposed time of the crime—around 11:30 PM— one possible scenario is that Mikio heard a noise outside and went to investigate. This could explain why he was found in his outdoor clothes. It’s conceivable that upon encountering the intruder, Mikio was pushed back inside. It wouldn’t be surprising if Mikio resisted and then tried to retreat to a safer location, perhaps upstairs, where he might grab something (a knife?) to defend the family. This could explain the stab wounds to his legs, suggesting a struggle on the stairs.

The TMPD is still uncertain how the killer gained entry. It’s possible the killer entered through the front door. After committing the murder, the killer might have even tried on Mikio's shoe to see if it fit, which could explain why one foot was bare.
 
According to the Japanese wiki page, Mikio was found in his outdoor clothes, with one foot bare. Also, he had multiple stab wounds on his legs and buttocks. Considering the supposed time of the crime—around 11:30 PM— one possible scenario is that Mikio heard a noise outside and went to investigate. This could explain why he was found in his outdoor clothes. It’s conceivable that upon encountering the intruder, Mikio was pushed back inside. It wouldn’t be surprising if Mikio resisted and then tried to retreat to a safer location, perhaps upstairs, where he might grab something (a knife?) to defend the family. This could explain the stab wounds to his legs, suggesting a struggle on the stairs.

The TMPD is still uncertain how the killer gained entry. It’s possible the killer entered through the front door. After committing the murder, the killer might have even tried on Mikio's shoe to see if it fit, which could explain why one foot was bare.

The official TMPD theory is that the killer was striking from above on the landing, with Mikio climbing the stairs *towards* him.

But I've always questioned how the stab wounds to Mikio's legs and buttocks could be pointing upwards in that scenario; logic says the wounds were inflicted from below, or at the very least from behind, as though Mikio were fleeing *away* from the killer--not running towards him. Like you, my thought was that Mikio was attempting to climb the stairs to protect his family from an assailant who was down in the hallway, chasing him up the stairs.

I've also suggested in the past that Mikio might have heard a noise and gone outside to investigate, inadvertently allowing the killer entry. Though in that scenario I think the killer must have gone upstairs and killed Rei first, before going back downstairs and confronting Mikio in the hallway. The lack of blood on Rei makes it almost impossible he was anything other than the first victim.
 
Where have they discussed it?

It's mentioned nowhere on their website that I can see. The Chief said nothing about it.
Here 世田谷一家殺害事件 - Wikipedia

I automatically translated Japanese Wiki and am posting the result

"Details of the remains and their connection to the skateboarderThe glass spheres were made of titanium , barium , silica , and other substances, and were in the form of white powder , with five or six pieces about 50 micrometers in diameter. The glass spheres were manufactured by a glass processing manufacturer in Missouri , USA, and were used in special film for printing machines manufactured by a manufacturer in Kyoto Prefecture in Japan. [42] These were discovered through chemical analysis, and some reports have explained that "when they were first discovered, they were thought to be barium titanate, a raw material for ceramics " ( Asahi Shimbun, same article ). On the other hand, there were also reports in later years that "barium titanate (powder) was included" ( Sankei Shimbun, Yukan Fuji, August 2, 2006 ).The investigation revealed that these substances may have been scraped off from grip tape, which is used to prevent skateboards from slipping. This is usually done by a store clerk when purchasing a skateboard, but experienced skaters seem to cut the grip tape into the shape of the board themselves and scrape it off with a screwdriver or something similar.Monazite has also been found to be found in granite from the Rocky Mountains , and like the sand, it may have originated in California.These facts raise the possibility that the skateboarder may have been somehow involved in the incident. The investigation headquarters is currently looking into the possibility that a skateboard dealer or bag may have been passed from the skateboarder to another person, and is focusing its investigation on the suspect's travel history to California ( Sankei Shimbun, Yukan Fuji, same article )."
 
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Here is the excerpt from the same Wiki

I don't know what it means but obviously, indicates that the victim and the perp knew each other well?

"Details of fluorescent agents (information released in December 2009)The raw material for fluorescent agents is a powder that is not manufactured in Japan; two domestic chemical companies import it from China and India , and several other manufacturers process it into products for use in printing inks , paint for road signs , and fluorescent paint for billboards.The fluorescent agents are three types of powdered fluorescent dyes, distributed under the brand names " Rhodamine " and "Basonil", which are reddish-brown (some reports say green) in powder form, turn red or pink when dissolved in water, and fluoresce under black light . In addition to being used primarily to dye paper, cloth, cotton, and other textiles, they are also used in plastic products, comic books, packaging, advertising, the manufacture of pigments and inks, highlighters, oil paint materials, laser research, construction sites, etc. It is not common to use all three types, so the likely sources are specialist dye and paint companies, factories, paper manufacturers, research facilities, stage production companies, designers, etc.Two types of dye were found in a sweatshirt left behind by the perpetrator, and three types were found inside a hip bag also left behind, and at the bottom of a drawer in a shelf that had been turned over on its side at the back of the garage (presumably a storage space, with the drawer upright) where there was no sign of the perpetrator having entered during the crime. In addition, the dye in the garage drawer was only found on the bottom, and may have been a trace from when the victim and the perpetrator had checked each other for fluorescent dye in the darkness of the garage prior to the crime . [40]For more details, please refer to " #Metropolitan Police Department Information Disclosure (2009) " below."

What does it mean? They state that the perp has not entered the garage and yet, that the murderer and victim had checked each other for the dye in the garage prior to the crime being committed.

I know they list hypotheses, but I am reading further because I am forming mine.
 
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Some events before/prior/after the incident
  • On the morning of the 27th, three days before the incident, a suspicious man in his mid-40s was seen lurking around the victim's home . [52]
  • A young man wearing clothes similar to those found at the crime scene, including a sweatshirt, hip bag, and sneakers, was seen around 3pm on the 29th, the day before the incident, near Seijo Gakuenmae Station on the Odakyu Line, 1.5km from the crime scene ( Mainichi Shimbun, November 30th, 2006 ). According to a housewife who witnessed the incident, she remembered the man well because "he was lightly dressed for the end of December." Additionally, according to Weekly Asahi ( combined issue of January 5th and 12th, 2007 ), the same man was also seen near the victim's house at around 9pm on the 30th, just before the crime.
  • On the day of the incident, on the 30th, just after noon, an unfamiliar man was seen arguing with the victim. [ 53]
  • On the day of the incident, the 30th, at around 7 pm and 10 pm, a man aged between 35 and 40 was seen walking on the sidewalk (service road) along the river near the victim's house, wearing a hat similar to the one left behind by the perpetrator at the crime scene. The man seen at 7 pm was walking next to the victim's house, and the man seen at 10 pm was walking on the sidewalk opposite the victim's house, but it is unclear whether the two men are the same person . [54]
  • On the day of the incident, the 30th, at around 10 p.m., a suspicious young man (approximately 17 to 19 years old) with blonde hair and wearing a light-colored tracksuit was spotted about 250 meters south of the victim's house in the park. The young man reportedly glared at the witness's pet dog before passing by.
  • On the day of the incident, the 30th, between 11:35 and 11:40pm, a man was seen running out of the alley leading to the victim's house and running away. A sketch of this man was released by the Metropolitan Police Department in December 2004 (see " Metropolitan Police Department Information Disclosure (2004) " below for details). The man is described as "25-35 years old, 175-180cm tall, thin, with slightly long hair, wearing a dark jacket and pants."
Also:
A neighbor heard the intercom ring at the victim's house at around 8:30 p.m. on the day of the incident . However, the witness's family members have denied hearing the sound, and the investigation into the case has not progressed, so no one has come forward. There are also reports that a passerby heard a man and woman arguing at the victim's house late at night on the 30th. [57

Sorry for so much info, but I am forming a slightly difference entrance theory
 
So my feeling is: the perpetrator entered via the front door. DNA in the slippers means that he took off the sneakers in a Japanese way. He brought the knife - meaning that he planned to kill if necessary but initially, he was polite.

Then there was an argument. What he wanted is unclear, but probably the witnesses would hear an accent?

He killed Mikio. Honestly, not sure whether Rei was the first or the last, but the attacker assaulted the women. It is not yet clear to me whether Yasuko started yelling loudly or somehow frightened him, but he left - this was one of the men seen running from the house. Later he probably decided to return as he didn't want to leave witnesses.

Think of this, if Yasuko was tending to Niina's wounds, thinking that he left, given how small the house was, she would have heard footsteps. I think he truly left, but returned soon, and finished the women, or, women and Rei. And the second time, he didn't take off the sneakers. I believe he could have been either well-known to Mikio, but not to others, or well-known to Yasuko but not to others but somehow, he was let in. He did have a reason to be let in, be it work or hobby. Maybe he was a Japanese version of a "grievance collector".

@FacelessPodcast , you mentioned Mikio traveling to Edwards Air Base. Could he have traveled there with a colleague?

I stopped questioning the sand. I suddenly remembered the genetics that I hope would help us. In genetics, when you have tiny amounts of ethnic admixtures, like one of my relatives has a tad of "Corsican", the question usually asked is, "who was that Corsican who traveled to Russia?" The opposite could be true, a Russian guy could have traveled to Corsica and left his DNA, and the tiny piece of it is a "bridge" between my relative and that person. (People who know how initial sample groups are formed will understand.) The same could have happened here, we are looking for the person who traveled from Mojave desert to Tokyo, but if you say that Mikio traveled there, and back, maybe someone else did, too?
 
Here is the excerpt from the same Wiki

I don't know what it means but obviously, indicates that the victim and the perp knew each other well?

"Details of fluorescent agents (information released in December 2009)The raw material for fluorescent agents is a powder that is not manufactured in Japan; two domestic chemical companies import it from China and India , and several other manufacturers process it into products for use in printing inks , paint for road signs , and fluorescent paint for billboards.The fluorescent agents are three types of powdered fluorescent dyes, distributed under the brand names " Rhodamine " and "Basonil", which are reddish-brown (some reports say green) in powder form, turn red or pink when dissolved in water, and fluoresce under black light . In addition to being used primarily to dye paper, cloth, cotton, and other textiles, they are also used in plastic products, comic books, packaging, advertising, the manufacture of pigments and inks, highlighters, oil paint materials, laser research, construction sites, etc. It is not common to use all three types, so the likely sources are specialist dye and paint companies, factories, paper manufacturers, research facilities, stage production companies, designers, etc.Two types of dye were found in a sweatshirt left behind by the perpetrator, and three types were found inside a hip bag also left behind, and at the bottom of a drawer in a shelf that had been turned over on its side at the back of the garage (presumably a storage space, with the drawer upright) where there was no sign of the perpetrator having entered during the crime. In addition, the dye in the garage drawer was only found on the bottom, and may have been a trace from when the victim and the perpetrator had checked each other for fluorescent dye in the darkness of the garage prior to the crime . [40]For more details, please refer to " #Metropolitan Police Department Information Disclosure (2009) " below."

What does it mean? They state that the perp has not entered the garage and yet, that the murderer and victim had checked each other for the dye in the garage prior to the crime being committed.

I know they list hypotheses, but I am reading further because I am forming mine.

I don't know what the information about the garage means, but it definitely seems to suggest the fluorescent substance was a powder. And that the three different types of powder would rarely be found in a single product, suggesting the specific combination was unique to a particular place or usage. Mikio was both a designer and a stage production enthusiast, meaning he'd be more likely to have access to such products.

It almost sounds like they think the killer and at least one victim had been working on a project together using the fluorescent dyes, and checked each other for contamination out in the garage before both went inside.
 
I don't know what the information about the garage means, but it definitely seems to suggest the fluorescent substance was a powder. And that the three different types of powder would rarely be found in a single product, suggesting the specific combination was unique to a particular place or usage. Mikio was both a designer and a stage production enthusiast, meaning he'd be more likely to have access to such products.

It almost sounds like they think the killer and at least one victim had been working on a project together using the fluorescent dyes, and checked each other for contamination out in the garage before both went inside.

Or maybe worked a day before?

There is, indeed, something strange happening around Mikio's house for the last few days prior to murder, as if he is being stalked, since December 25. Maybe, being brilliant but distracted, Mikio didn't notice it?

Also, give or take, the perp was trying to buy tickets for Shuki (four seasons?) theater performance on Mikio's computer. He either tried figure out pin code for the card, but maybe, merely had similar interests?

One more thing I was thinking about: Mikio was managing household finances, obsessively writing down all debits/credits. It is great to have such an organized bookkeeper in the house. On the negative side, if one relies on such a partner, the person may not notice that part of the money is used for something else. Just a thought...
 

I've translated this as best I can:

December 14th 2009
The Metropolitan Police Department announced that the fluorescent agents found at the crime scene were three types of powdered fluorescent dyes...The dyes are mainly Rhodamine (Rhodamin B, Rhodamine 6GCP, Rhodamine 6GCP-N) commercialized by two domestic companies, or Basonyl (Basonyl Red 540, Basonyl Red 482, Basonyl Red 485)...The color index names of the dyes are "Basic Violet 10," "Basic Red 1," and "Basic Red 1:1," respectively.

The article notes that although the dyes were commonly used in other products, having the three dyes in powder form wouldn't be very common. You'd usually need to be involved with a job or hobby that used them.

 

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