2024 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

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My oldest is headed offshore tonight on the Tyson B out of Daulphin Island, AL. I asked her if they’ll be affected by the storm. They’re expecting it to be choppy seas on Tues & Wed and then smooth after that.

I wonder if storm cranks up significantly, if they’ll be sent more eastward to wait it out.

 
...BERYL FORECAST TO BRING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODINGAND STRONG WINDS TO TEXAS OVERNIGHT...
4:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 7
Location: 26.8°N 95.5°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
 
..HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS...
7:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 7
Location: 27.1°N 95.6°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
 
...BERYL IS AGAIN A HURRICANE...

11:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 7
Location: 27.7°N 95.7°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph


Beryl's running out of time to strengthen before she makes landfall in less than 12 hours. Seems like she'll make landfall in the Lake Jackson area imo
 
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...BERYL STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...

1:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 8
Location: 28.2°N 95.9°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
 
It’s chaos out there! Spoke to my oldest this evening. The two boats went out Sunday night. 1 went west and was immediately delayed due to Hurricane Beryl.

The one my daughter is on went east towards Pensacola FL. Today they were in 5-6’ seas and had to call it. The night shifts equipment broke. It was too dangerous for the day shift to continue.

They motored into Panama City Beach and docked for the night. They’ll head back out at 5:00am with only the boat crew & 2 day shift researchers.

They’re are many research trips planned on different boats thru Aug. If this hurricane season explodes as predicted, scheduled trips are going to be continuously disrupted. They typically don’t go out in Sept but weather permitting, they may have to.
 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Beryl, located near the Great Lakes.

1. Off the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
A broad trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some additional development of this system over the next couple of days before it moves inland over the southeastern U.S. by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
 
PayrollNerd said:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Beryl, located near the Great Lakes.

1. Off the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
A broad trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some additional development of this system over the next couple of days before it moves inland over the southeastern U.S. by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Click to expand...
Northern Vermont got clobbered with rain and flooding in some areas from the remnants of Beryl. There was serious flooding in Barre, VT, which was hit with terrible flooding a year ago.

My son in northwestern VT (south of Burlington) said they got 5.33 inches of rain yesterday and it's very wet there, but no flooding.
 

Central Florida Hurricane Center 2024 - 29 Years Tracking Storms

flhurricane is a Website focused on the tracking, data, and discussion of Atlantic Hurricanes with a focus on Florida.
flhurricane.com flhurricane.com

8PM EDT 27 July 2024 Update
The Area in the Central Atlantic is now up to a 40% chance to develop over the next 7 days, those in the Leeward islands should watch closely, but it's unlikely to develop in the near term until it gets further west toward the middle of the week. If it were to approach the mainland US the timeframe would be Sunday-Monday or Tuesday Aug 4-5. However it's too early to say where it will go until it develops (if it does) and where. It's currently not being tracked as an invest area.
 
Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are getting a bad vibe from the tropical wave out in the Atlantic. Here's the description

Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form late this week while the system is in the
vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Tropical Tidbits Dacebook post:

After a quiet few weeks to cap off July, we will again be watching for tropical development in the Atlantic this week.

A currently broad and dry tropical wave will track near the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles in a few days, potentially approaching the Bahamas this weekend. The wave will be accompanied by favorable conditions for tropical development with low shear and increasing moisture values. Development would likely be slow due to the currently broad nature of the disturbance, but gradual consolidation of a tropical system is possible around the weekend, with both ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing increasing odds of development. The NHC currently gives a 50% chance of this occurring.

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Heading into August so the drama in ramping up. Just hope it does it's thing and is done before Thu Aug 8th. That's when my girls fly into the West Indies, Granada to get the youngest set up at St. George's University's Veterinarian program. They leave out of Tampa, lay over in Miami so hoping for smooth clear skies.

Central Florida Hurricane Center 2024 - 29 Years Tracking Storms

flhurricane is a Website focused on the tracking, data, and discussion of Atlantic Hurricanes with a focus on Florida.
flhurricane.com flhurricane.com

8AM EDT 31 July 2024 Update
The area now in the Northeastern Bahamas still has a 60% chance to develop later in the week (Friday night or Saturday) The large, but dry wave is slowly, but surely gaining moisture as it moves westward and is currently bringing some rain to the Leeward islands. The future of the system depends a great deal on how organized at gets, and exactly where, which is reflected in the National Hurricane Center's formation region. (This isnt' a track cone) Where it could develop in the Bahamas, move into Florida or into the Gulf, with the odds only slightly favoring it to move east of Florida) It's unlikely to develop quickly however, thus the most likely outcome is a lot of rain for the areas it goes over.
 

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com

Invest 97L
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 01, 2024:

Location: 19.8°N 72.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm
 

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com

Potential Tropical Cyclone FOUR
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 02, 2024:

Location: 20.6°N 75.6°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

1722622616735.png
 
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