Allison Baden-Clay - GENERAL DISCUSSION THREAD #40

[alicat]

The other thing that comes to mind, if indeed it WAS liver blood that was used to assess the levels, is that those levels are likely to have come from Allison's normal dose of Zoloft from the last time she took it - probably in the evening. There is no need to introduce other theories about her being forced to take more.

Just wondering, would these levels be in a normal blood test or would this be a special request blood test? The reason I ask because I have blood tests quite a bit and my Dr can always go back and see what my iron levels have been the past year on his computer etc..

If Allison did go to Kenmore Clinics (like GBC saw a Dr the following day) then they may have her 'normal' levels on file.

 

[redlightthroughpaper]

Did the autopsy report just say they couldn't rule that out or that the levels were definitely enough to cause death? I think it was the former plus otherwise wouldnt cause of death be known not unknown? I got the impression they were majorly stretching the truth about the report. Spin spin.

The former. But I am interested in what actual levels were as would assume there would be at least some basis/article/report to try to substantiate using the term lethal.

 

[alioop]

Did the autopsy report just say they couldn't rule that out or that the levels were definitely enough to cause death? I think it was the former plus otherwise wouldnt cause of death be known not unknown? I got the impression they were majorly stretching the truth about the report. Spin spin.

From what I heard at the bail hearing as I have not seen the autopsy report, the results of the autopsy could not establish a cause of death. It reported on the levels of zoloft metabolites in the liver but I don't think it drew any conclusions on those levels one way or the other. The defence has suggested that the levels support an overdose and therefore they offered a theory of suicide. I agree its spin and MSM are spinning it for all its worth.

 

[redlightthroughpaper]

To try and get him bailed.

As I said previously just because the defence made certain submissions and MSM runs with them, it doesn't necessarily mean much when properly examined. Those submissions were for the purposes of getting him bail and have failed to achieve that. Further the prosecution can now address those matters and be ready to deal with them at the committal.

Thank you Alioop. Did you happen to note whether actual concentrations were mentioned when they made the submission?

 

[alioop]

The former. But I am interested in what actual levels were as would assume there would be at least some basis/article/report to try to substantiate using the term lethal.

I wrote down Peter Davis saying 0.2mg of zoloft's metabolite. Doc can you comment on this amount?

 

[alicat]

Yes, but how'd she get to Kholo Creek?

My theory with Kholo Creek is this place was chosen because GBC most likely* never travelled over that way, so therefore there is not the constant reminder of flowers and guilt.

* I say most likely because the houses he sold/rented were in the inner western suburbs, as opposed to Mt Crosby/Karana Downs etc...

 

[alioop]

Alicat, I understand it is part of the prosecution's case that he did know that area as he had some problem tenants nearby for some period and it involved evictions and police attending.

 

[redlightthroughpaper]

I wrote down Peter Davis saying 0.2mg of zoloft's metabolite. Doc can you comment on this amount?

Minimum lethal human exposure is unknown but acute toxicity

In mice
LD 50 (oral):
548 mg/kg in male
419 mg/kg in female

LD 50 (intraperitoneal):
73 mg/kg in male

In rats:
LD 50 (oral):
1591 mg/kg in male
1327 mg/kg in female

LD 50 (intraperitoneal):
79 mg/kg in male

http://www.inchem.org/documents/pims/pharm/pim177.htm#SectionTitle:1.1 Substance

EDIT: That refers to drug not metabolite by the way.

 

[DrWatson]

I wrote down Peter Davis saying 0.2mg of zoloft's metabolite. Doc can you comment on this amount?

Hard to comment Alioop - you'd need a bit more, as in 0.2mg PER SOMETHING. Was it per ml? Per millimole? per Kg? In other words, a concentration level.

And as has already been pointed out in the references above - it can't be extrapolated to a dose PRE-mortem, or to a "toxic" level, if the measurement was taken (a) from the liver, and (b) post-mortem.

So the actual measurements would be pretty much a moot point, I'd think.

 

[redlightthroughpaper]

To show the toxicology of Zoloft in my last post in a different perspective;
If a female mouse weighed 55kg then she would have to take over 460 50mg tablets to have a 50% percent chance of dying without medical help.
Even keeping in mind that a human may be more sensitive to the drug, I think taking enough Zoloft tablets to cause death may be a little bit hard to swallow.

 

[Champagne4lulu]

Alioop, is there a possibility that the suicide defence is a "red-herring"? This just seems to have some obvious holes in it and I wonder if they are saving their big silver bullet for committal or trial? Not sure how strategy works in these types of cases but maybe they figured bail was unlikely to be granted but give it a shot with this defense. If it works, great, if not, at least there's still a chance for them to blindside the crown later.

I'm reading that and it doesn't really seem a likely strategy to me, but neither does going through the effort and cost of an additional bail app when there appears to be some fundamental errors on assumptions.

Wdyt?

Also, is the jury given the details on evidence submitted in all court activity/bail apps relating to the case or are they told to disregard anything up to that point? What about attempting to sell the gc property? Would they be told about that?

 

[alicat]

If a female mouse weighed 55kg

Wow! If I ever see a 55kg mouse I will be G....O...N....E.....!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Freya1977]

I think taking enough Zoloft tablets to cause death may be a little bit hard to swallow.

Quite literally!

One reason that it is so difficult to OD on a lot of these drugs is that the bodies normal response is to vomit them up. So even if you managed to swallow the massive quantity of tablets required (and it is a huge number), they'd likely come right back up again pretty shortly after.

There really isn't a great deal of prescription medications still prescribed that are likely to result in a successful suicide, unless used in combination, huge amounts, with anti-emetics plus another means such as plastic bag method (plastic bag secured over the head so that once you pass out from the effect of an OD, you will suffocate to death while unconscious).

 

[Freya1977]

Wow! If I ever see a 55kg mouse I will be G....O...N....E.....!!!!!!!!!!!

:floorlaugh:

 

[Mountain Misst]

May 01, 2012

• Police are hopeful of finding her mobile phone after narrowing the location of the key missing item to an area spanning 150m

Further down in the same report...


As the Kholo Creek crews worked, fresh search teams were sent to scour the gardens of the Baden-Clays' two nearest neighbours looking for Allison's mobile phone.

It is understood search crews were told the iPhone would be found in an area believed to be near the two neighbours and the Baden-Clay property itself.

Up to 20 police officers searched the neighbouring properties and dozens of SES volunteers returned around 4pm to look again.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...d-at-kholo-creek/story-e6freoof-1226343136675

Thanks Marly. Your blood's worth bottling!

 

[Fuskier]

...
I should also point out that the first reference posted above was from 1993, but the second was bang up to date - 30th November, 2012. I'd hope that whoever the prosecution use as their expert witness would be familiar with that latest paper, even though it was only published about 2 weeks ago

Valuable contribution Doc. Appreciated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by redlightthroughpaper
Interesting article on post mortem ‘lethal concentrations’; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2561112/

Valuable contribution to the discussion. Thank you Redlightthroughpaper.

We are fortunate to have WS members with expertise which enables us to participate in discussion on the suicide theory.

 

[Fuskier]

...
Something else that has just occurred to me is that Peter Davis submitted that there were empty packets of zoloft found in the car and carport and maybe somewhere else that I didn't hear. But he gave no specifics about how old these packets were for eg when had they been dispensed by the pharmacy or that based on pharmacy records she should have had X no of pills remaining but they were all gone. Hopefully the police collected all those packets and worked out how many she should have had left based on dispensing dates and what was left in the house. Unless someone interfered with those packets of course. Peter Davis was asked by the Judge if GBC mentioned suicide to police and he said he didn't and there was no suicide note. So I am thinking not much was done that morning by GBC to steer the investigation towards suicide so hopefully the Zoloft was not even thought about at that time and therefore not interfered with.

However, this does not exclude some person other than GBC stashing pkts of Zoloft to 'steer' towards a depression, therefore possible suicide theory IMO.

 

[Curiousasacat]

I love coming on here to catch up these great posts.
Awesome as usual.
Shout out must go to Doc Watson today. Nice job Doc!

 

[alioop]

Hard to comment Alioop - you'd need a bit more, as in 0.2mg PER SOMETHING. Was it per ml? Per millimole? per Kg? In other words, a concentration level.

And as has already been pointed out in the references above - it can't be extrapolated to a dose PRE-mortem, or to a "toxic" level, if the measurement was taken (a) from the liver, and (b) post-mortem.

So the actual measurements would be pretty much a moot point, I'd think.

I didn't hear what the per something was and it may not have been mentioned. Anyway as you say it doesn't matter.

 

[alioop]

Alioop, is there a possibility that the suicide defence is a "red-herring"? This just seems to have some obvious holes in it and I wonder if they are saving their big silver bullet for committal or trial? Not sure how strategy works in these types of cases but maybe they figured bail was unlikely to be granted but give it a shot with this defense. If it works, great, if not, at least there's still a chance for them to blindside the crown later.

I'm reading that and it doesn't really seem a likely strategy to me, but neither does going through the effort and cost of an additional bail app when there appears to be some fundamental errors on assumptions.

Wdyt?

Also, is the jury given the details on evidence submitted in all court activity/bail apps relating to the case or are they told to disregard anything up to that point? What about attempting to sell the gc property? Would they be told about that?

I think it was a strategy mainly to get him bail. It's clear to me that to apply for bail with the suicide theory as your argument for change in circumstances that he really really wants out of jail, no surprise there. It will be interesting if they raise it in cross examination at the committal. I think they will but the prosecution will have all their arguments covered by then and their witnesses will address the suicide theory. At a trial if he is committed, and I think he will be, the jury are told to disregard anything they have previously seen, read or heard and only to consider what happens in the courtroom. I don't think the sale of the property is in itself of any great relevance to the murder charges, other than as part of the urgent need for money as he was in dire financial circumstances.