ARDI -- new hope The return of the IDI

[BBB167893]

I think logical thinking is probably not the way to go at all probably. Just keep following the evidence.

THAT's what I'm trying to say! That's exactly what I'm trying to say. And what do I get? This "wildcard" nonsense.

 

[Holdontoyourhat]

Good point. I think logical thinking is probably not the way to go at all probably. Just keep following the evidence.

I was actually commending your use of logic, to attempt to find a cohesive rational explanation for phenomenon.

For example, if JBR managed to let out a scream, it may have changed the whole kidnap plan. JBR was, after all, wrapped in a blanket with tape over her mouth. She had a ligature loose around her wrists. This all suggests the plan to move her alive into a waiting car in cold winter night was interrupted.

In RDI, why would they leave the 2nd ligature loose if they were staging a kidnapping? A partially used prop? Now thats a phenomenon. Go ahead, SD explain that.

 

[BBB167893]

"I do not think the Ramsey's needed to write a note"-Roy23

Ya for sure, in hindsight, one could imagine better means to disguise JBR purposeful or accidental death.

You just nailed it, HOTYH: "in hindsight." Well, hindsight's not something they had the luxury of at that point.

"nor did the intruder." ..... unless the perp was part of the Ramsey's inner circle and was the individual that had previously molested JBR. Then the rn and 'staging' would serve the same purpose as attributed to the RDI scenarios.

I think that deserves pursuit.

 

[BBB167893]

In RDI, why would they leave the 2nd ligature loose if they were staging a kidnapping? A partially used prop? Now thats a phenomenon. Go ahead, SD explain that.

If I thought it would do me any good!

But I'll do it, if only because someone might get what I'm saying.

Yes, the loosely tied wrist ligature is an interesting phenomenon. But it's really not that complicated. Just because someone tries to stage a crime doesn't mean they know how to do it effectively. That ignorance (for lack of a better term) combined with the highly agitated mental state the stager was likely to be in adds up to just what you said: a partially used prop.

 

[Holdontoyourhat]

If I thought it would do me any good!

But I'll do it, if only because someone might get what I'm saying.

Yes, the loosely tied wrist ligature is an interesting phenomenon. But it's really not that complicated. Just because someone tries to stage a crime doesn't mean they know how to do it effectively. That ignorance (for lack of a better term) combined with the highly agitated mental state the stager was likely to be in adds up to just what you said: a partially used prop.

The simple yet effective garrote design and the injury to JBR's neck do not support the claim that someone does not know how to stage a crime, or commit a crime. One minute, they can stage a crime the next they cant?

I dunno, SD. The fingernail DNA, and the hands 'not quite tied up yet' is very suggestive of JBR's final moments. And, its cohesive, doesn't require a presupposition or conclusion to be drawn on the part of anybody's criminal aptitude, or mental states. For all we know, the perp was calm as a cucumber.

 

[BBB167893]

The simple yet effective garrote design and the injury to JBR's neck do not support the claim that someone does not know how to stage a crime, or commit a crime.

Don't be so sure, HOTYH. The fact that it was simple is actually one for my side. Any fool could have made it. But the idea that you're arguing efficiency is, to me, pretty ridiculous. Yes, ultimately it was effective, BUT think about what had to happen there. The garrote was completely ineffiecient to use on a living, fighting person. The sheer length of cord from the handle to the neck would require leverage that could only be achieved in awkward position. Something like this would only work if you didn't have to worry about someone trying to struggle. Werner Spitz said something along those lines as well.

One minute, they can stage a crime the next they can't?

Well, first of all, HOTYH, I'd say I've been pretty consistent so far. Second of all, if you read my post, I didn't say "Can't." I said "don't know how." Anyone can get lucky. And in case you haven't noticed by now, I'm saying that they did. And it's not just me. To use one of Lawrence Schiller's favorite quotes, "this was not a perfect murder by design. It was a perfect murder by accident."

I dunno, SD. The fingernail DNA, and the hands 'not quite tied up yet' is very suggestive of JBR's final moments.

IF the two are connected. There's good reason to believe they aren't. I realize you may not be a big fan of Ames, but I'm hoping that she'll come by and read this so she can enlighten us with what it's LIKE to be strangled and what the victim is likely to be doing. She'll tell you the exact same thing I will: JB would have had MOUNDS of flesh, from herself and her attacker, if what you say happened happened. She didn't. That's not a "presupposition," or a "wildcard." It's a FACT.

And, its cohesive, doesn't require a presupposition or conclusion to be drawn on the part of anybody's criminal aptitude, or mental states.

Firstly, even if I agreed that it was cohesive, there's quite a lot that would have to happen that didn't happen for it to be true.

Secondly, I would not be so dismissive if I were you of criminal aptitude and mental states. Indeed, that's the whole thing behind my supposedly "wildcard" explanations: if we're going to solve this thing, it might be a good idea to try an get inside the perp's head.

More to the point, it requires a whole lot of presupposition in OTHER areas, that's for damn sure!

For all we know, the perp was calm as a cucumber.

I doubt it.

 

[Holdontoyourhat]

IF the two are connected. There's good reason to believe they aren't. I realize you may not be a big fan of Ames, but I'm hoping that she'll come by and read this so she can enlighten us with what it's LIKE to be strangled and what the victim is likely to be doing. She'll tell you the exact same thing I will: JB would have had MOUNDS of flesh, from herself and her attacker, if what you say happened happened. She didn't. That's not a "presupposition," or a "wildcard." It's a FACT.

I read JBR had unsourced DNA found under the fingernails of both hands, and RDI's answer is thats not enough to be significant?

There's no implied rule that says strangulation victims always have mounds of flesh under their nails. Thats an assumption you're passing off as a fact. Doesnt work with me. I think whenever somebody says always they really mean sometimes.

 

[BBB167893]

There's no implied rule that says strangulation victims always have mounds of flesh under their nails.

Even if there isn't, it's not MY rule. It's what would had to have happened to hear a lot of IDIs tell it. So don't jump on me.

Indeed, that's why I'm hoping that Ames will come along. She can tell it a lot better than I can.

Thats an assumption you're passing off as a fact. Doesnt work with me. I think whenever somebody says always they really mean sometimes.

I do not believe I said "always." I was not making any blanket statements. I'm not passing off any assumptions as fact. I was quite specifically referring to this case. You're making arguments against points I never made.

I read there was DNA found under fingernails from both hands, and RDI's answer is thats not enough DNA to be crime-related?

A few cells under ONE nail of each hand, with no more than 3 markers. Yeah, I would say that's not the best place to start!

BTW, I'm not holding you to being consistent, SD.

Well, I DO hold myself to that.

Only if I truely thought you knew what happened, would I hold you to be consistent.

I'm not sure whether to take that as a compliment or an insult. So let me say this:

If I truly KNEW, as in eyewitness knowledge, what happened that night, I wouldn't keep it confined to WS. You can take that to the bank.

 

[Holdontoyourhat]

A few cells under ONE nail of each hand, with no more than 3 markers. Yeah, I would say that's not the best place to start!

DNA under the fingernails not the best place to start for a child murder by strangulation victim. OK.

BTW, where do you get your 'few cells under one nail of each hand' characterization? Shall I assume your source to be valid?

If I truly KNEW, as in eyewitness knowledge, what happened that night, I wouldn't keep it confined to WS. You can take that to the bank.

Me neither.

 

[BBB167893]

DNA under the fingernails not the best place to start for a child murder by strangulation victim. OK.

Don't TWIST it, okay, HOTYH? I'm trying to make specific arguments, and you keep using these straw men to mischaracterize what I say. Frustrates me like you wouldn't believe.

So let me be clear: in general, it's probably a good idea to start there and see what you can find. But when the results come back and say, "well, this is what we've got, but it's not much," it might be a good time to start planning your next line of inquiry, wouldn't you say?

BTW, where do you get your 'few cells under one nail of each hand' characterization?

Well, for one, from ITRMI. Have a look:

"The experts noted no blood or skin tissue beneath the fingernails, as they often see when a victim has fought an attacker."

As for more, I'll get back to you.

Shall I assume your source to be valid?

You should. I doubt you will.

 

[Roy23]

Dave and Holdon,

Let me ask you both your take on this issue. What is your understanding of the DNA under the nails? And explain it if you would do so. Was there a similarity? A match? and Why is it considered degraged if so?

 

[Roy23]

I was actually commending your use of logic, to attempt to find a cohesive rational explanation for phenomenon.

For example, if JBR managed to let out a scream, it may have changed the whole kidnap plan. JBR was, after all, wrapped in a blanket with tape over her mouth. She had a ligature loose around her wrists. This all suggests the plan to move her alive into a waiting car in cold winter night was interrupted.

In RDI, why would they leave the 2nd ligature loose if they were staging a kidnapping? A partially used prop? Now thats a phenomenon. Go ahead, SD explain that.

I agree with you for the most part holdon. I agree it is logical or at least more logical than the other scenario

 

[Holdontoyourhat]

Dave and Holdon,

Let me ask you both your take on this issue. What is your understanding of the DNA under the nails? And explain it if you would do so. Was there a similarity? A match? and Why is it considered degraged if so?

Recent articles reported a fingernail-to-underwear DNA match, including CBS and CNN. Some older articles either said no match, or DNA was poor and degraded.

Lacy's exhonerating statement did not refer to fingernail DNA. However, it cast major significance on the fact that already coded DNA mixed with blood in her underwear matched DNA that was predicted to exist on both sides of the waistband of her long johns.

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2008/jul/09/da-mary-lacys-statement-ramsey-exoneration/

There is a conflict on the fingernail DNA, to be sure.

 

[Roy23]

So from your opinion it is unclear but possible. Thanks for that holdon. What do you say Dave?

 

[stereo21]

Couple questions:

1. Is there an IDI theory about how intruder could have entered the house, such as obtaining a key or picking the lock/etc?

2. Are there any RDI theories for explaining the *timing* of the murder/accident? Is it just PR's X-mas stress, or do you think that there could be a more sinister explanation for the event to occur on X-mas?
*edited so i can research more*

 

[BBB167893]

Dave and Holdon,

Let me ask you both your take on this issue. What is your understanding of the DNA under the nails? And explain it if you would do so. Was there a similarity? A match? and Why is it considered degraded if so?

My understanding of the DNA under the nails is that it's much ado about nothing. There are a lot of issues with it, including contamination, cross-contamination, and so forth. I realize some more recent articles have been written saying that there is a match, but given the media's general lack of knowledge on most subjects they report, who knows? In fact, when CBS reported in 2004 that there was a match, a spokesperson for the DA's office felt the need to publically correct that.

A similarity? Inasmuch as there were 3 markers that were identical to the other samples. But as for a match, I don't know of any objective, self-respecting scientist who would describe anything with only three markers a match with anything.

My understanding is that it's considered degraded because of the terrible shape it's in. Three markers is less than half of a full sample. If it were from that night, how did it get so crummy so fast? Especially since JB's DNA, which was also found under her nails, was fresh?

I could have given a much longer explanation, but this covers the essentials.

 

[Tadpole12]

Couple questions:

1. Is there an IDI theory about how intruder could have entered the house, such as obtaining a key or picking the lock/etc?

Hi Stereo.

Not that I've read of as yet.

2. Are there any RDI theories for explaining the *timing* of the murder/accident? Is it just PR's X-mas stress, or do you think that there could be a more sinister explanation for the event to occur on X-mas?

My biggest issue with RDI-accident-bedwetting theory

A lingering concern of mine with the RDI accident there is this: PR is so worried about an ACCIDENT that caused her daughter to become unconscious/possibly dead that she stages a sexual-kidnapping-murder?

If it was an accident, surely she would have been able to explain the accident in a way so as to avoid prosecution for manslaughter. She went so far as to stage a murder, surely she could have put her child at the bottom of the stairs, or even just told the truth about the child hitting her head on something?

It simply doesn't hold up. I can only see RDI if PR intentionally attacked the child with something really hard, and then she died. Its possible that she "snapped," but it seems unlikely that abuse would start out of the blue? I am more likely to see the murder coming out of the blue. I mean doesn't PR know that her daughter couldn't compete with a huge welt on her head?

"Its possible that she "snapped," but it seems unlikely that abuse would start out of the blue?" - S

Ya. The abuse bed wetting connection,
But it doesn't require an incident for child abuse,
A child could just look the wrong way, shuffle their feet, roll their eyes, breathe the wrong way, make a peep ... and WHACK.
Doesn't require an incident to illicit abuse.

 

[Roy23]

My understanding of the DNA under the nails is that it's much ado about nothing. There are a lot of issues with it, including contamination, cross-contamination, and so forth. I realize some more recent articles have been written saying that there is a match, but given the media's general lack of knowledge on most subjects they report, who knows? In fact, when CBS reported in 2004 that there was a match, a spokesperson for the DA's office felt the need to publically correct that.

A similarity? Inasmuch as there were 3 markers that were identical to the other samples. But as for a match, I don't know of any objective, self-respecting scientist who would describe anything with only three markers a match with anything.

My understanding is that it's considered degraded because of the terrible shape it's in. Three markers is less than half of a full sample. If it were from that night, how did it get so crummy so fast? Especially since JB's DNA, which was also found under her nails, was fresh?

I could have given a much longer explanation, but this covers the essentials.

What would matching 3 markers mean?

 

[BBB167893]

2. Are there any RDI theories for explaining the *timing* of the murder/accident? Is it just PR's X-mas stress, or do you think that there could be a more sinister explanation for the event to occur on X-mas?
*edited so i can research more*

There are or at least have been some theories about that. Some claim that PR chose that day to sacrifice her daughter to God, and the reasons for that are varied.

Personally, I believe it was just the X-mas stress, as you put it. But even then, I feel that the holiday stress was one of several contributing factors. Either way, it's heart-wrenching.

 

[Holdontoyourhat]

Couple questions:

1. Is there an IDI theory about how intruder could have entered the house, such as obtaining a key or picking the lock/etc?

2. Are there any RDI theories for explaining the *timing* of the murder/accident? Is it just PR's X-mas stress, or do you think that there could be a more sinister explanation for the event to occur on X-mas?
*edited so i can research more*

IDI theory, from my POV, would probably utilize lock picking. My theory is a more elaborate, SFF-type, came a long way, spent a lot of money, to kidnap JBR not for ransom, but failed.