Australia Claremont Serial Killer, 1996 - 1997, Perth, Western Australia - #18

[meticulously]

Back in the 1980s the weather bureau was often wrong, stating it would rain when often it didn’t. Then the bureau changed to there’s a “chance of a shower”. Nowadays it’s just the predicted percentage of chance that it perhaps, might rain.

The other day the radio announced that it “may” rain, which was surprising because at the time it was absolutely pouring down - raining cats and dogs!

Wish they’d just get the rain forecasts right!

The fact is that the information is always there but its a matter of sourcing the information you want accurately .
The average person listening to the radio or tv news etc is going to get fed basic levelreports, weather is much more complicated than that .
Getting the latest accurate data with speed is the huge difference nowadays.
Also depends on how much studying time you invest on the topic .
Anyone who can read weather could tell you what it was like in june 1988 because theres 3 to 4 different sources of information posted here on WS, All varying somewhat differently .
The best weather info is from this year, the old paper clippings just support the modern hindcast data .

"data come from this reanalysis model… trustworthy and used in many climate studies" - oceanographer 2017.


http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim

This is one of the sources that was used to source my information .




https://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?p=13707406

 

[meticulously]

"While some people might still joke about the reliability of weather forecasts, meteorologists are likely to nominate weather prediction as one of the great success stories of modern science – a crowning achievement of collaboration across many scientific and technological fields.
And now Australian weather forecasts are about to become even better, thanks to a new satellite and supercomputer.
Most of us simply take it for granted that weather can be forecast with some accuracy several days ahead. As measured by maximum and minimum temperature predictions for the next day, over 95% of forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are verified as accurate to within 3 degrees Celsius, reflecting a steady improvement in science, weather observations, and computing power over the past 30 years."

https://theconversation.com/weather-forecasting-is-about-to-get-even-better-44594

 

[meticulously]

Excellent description in this article about the improvements in Meteorology.

"In October 1987, UK weather forecaster Michael Fish famously dismissed fears that a hurricane was on the way, only to be proved disastrously wrong just hours later.
While technically not a hurricane, the storm that battered southern England was the worst for nearly 300 years, causing 18 deaths and £2bn worth of damage.
But such forecasting catastrophes are now a thing of the past, meteorologists would have us believe.
The UK's Met Office says its four-day forecast is now as accurate as its one-day forecast was 30 years ago."

"Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service, part of the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says: "We can now predict extreme weather events five to seven days in advance."
"Twenty years ago we would only have been able to look one day ahead."

"The improvement in short-range forecasting has been achieved thanks to a huge increase in the number of global observations, better numerical models, and the rise of supercomputers, weather scientists say."

"Extending the accuracy of forecasts by several days may not seem like a dramatic improvement to some sceptics, but weather is wild, immensely complex and constantly in flux."

"Mr Uccellini admits: "I can never give you a perfect forecast and I never will be able to, but I can give you one with increasing reliability and accuracy."
Forewarned is forearmed, they say. And better forecasts save money - and lives."

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29256322
________________________________

"As the quantity and quality of observations have improved, as computer modeling has become more detailed, as supercomputing has become more powerful, and as researchers study the mysteries of our weather and climate —*so, too, have forecasts improved and will continue to improve."

http://www.noaa.gov/explainers/improving-weather-forecasts

 

[NickyScarfo]

Posters opinions on this,
IF BRE is the killer, of SS, JR and CG, do most people on here think since 1997 he has not committed another murder? Do people think in that 20 year period he has been squeaky clean and basically gone straight? This 20 year period fascinates me, what are peoples theories on this?
Also I wonder if he has been overseas for holidays etc in this period.

 

[Sillybilly]

Websleuths TOS does not allow sleuthing family of victims or POI/suspect:

from The Rules: Etiquette & Information

VICTIM FRIENDLY

Websleuths is a victim friendly forum. Attacking or bashing a victim is not allowed. Discussing victim behavior, good or bad is fine, but do so in a civil and constructive way, and only when such behavior is relevant to the case.

The "victim friendly" rule extends to the family members of victims and suspects. Sleuthing family members, friends, and others who have not been designated as suspects is not allowed. Don't make random accusations, suggest their involvement, nor bash and attack them. Posting their personal information, including names, addresses, and background data -- even if it is public -- is not allowed. That does not mean, however, that statements made by family members and other third parties cannot come into discussion as the facts of the case are reported in the media.

 

[petedavo.au]

Websleuths TOS does not allow sleuthing family of victims or POI/suspect:

from The Rules: Etiquette & Information

Even if we suspect, that a victim was stalked and attacked, because the perpetrator might of held a grudge against the family, because of something a relative of the victim might've done to the family of the perpetrator?

Sent from my HTC 2PQ910 using Tapatalk

 

[Sillybilly]

Even if we suspect, that a victim was stalked and attacked, because the perpetrator might of held a grudge against the family, because of something a relative of the victim might've done to the family of the perpetrator?

Sent from my HTC 2PQ910 using Tapatalk

What someone may suspect has no bearing on TOS, and speculation alone is not justification for sleuthing family members. TOS means exactly what is says and this thread is no different than any other thread in how it is applied.

 

[meticulously]

As the large dent was on the passengers side, it may have landed on a rock on the passengers side. Or perhaps the car was involved in a crash beforehand and was t-boned.

Perhaps JC was a victim of road rage and she picked the wrong person to mess with! JMO

Perhaps it was pushed into the pylon by waves ?
What's the chance of that happening ?
seems most likely , as the car was found nearby to the pylon .

https://goo.gl/images/z6WPjX

 

[Canning Vale]

Perhaps it was pushed into the pylon by waves ?
What's the chance of that happening ?
seems most likely , as the car was found nearby to the pylon .

https://goo.gl/images/z6WPjX

My thoughts were, perhaps once the car hit the pylon it was repeatedly pushed by the waves into the pylon. Meaning that the car wasn't able to go elsewhere because of the pylon. Eventually when the water movement changed the car was able to move elsewhere.

 

[petedavo.au]

My thoughts were, perhaps once the car hit the pylon it was repeatedly pushed by the waves into the pylon. Meaning that the car wasn't able to go elsewhere because of the pylon. Eventually when the water movement changed the car was able to move elsewhere.

With modern 3D mapping technology, the Police should be able to create a 3D model of the pylon and the car, and thus check if the pylon matches up any of the dents.
Then exclude it or confirm it causing the damage. It's how sleuths deduced the wing flap was from a B777 before the ATSB even confirmed the serial numbers with Boeing as belonging to MH370.

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[Bunnie]

I really, really REALLY don't want to feed the weather and wave debate.... but...
How could the seat of the BLF end up SOUTH of the groyne and the car was situated NORTH of the groyne unless the seat was thrown off the groin towards the south and the car driven in towards the north.

Weather in winter in Perth usually comes from the South/South West unless there is unusually warm temperatures and a thunderstorm weather pattern rolls in from the North.

FYI for those arguing about whether it was rough enough to damage the LBF, the groynes along our beaches were built to protect the beaches from the harsh erosive and pounding effects of our surf. Our surf is unrelenting.

 

[Innerchild]

Quote Innerchild : "I have posted this particular chart and forecast around 4 times now.
Are you saying that the official BOM forecast in The West Australian is inaccurate?
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) wouldn't be too happy that you think their PhD trained officers that reported in 1988 did not know how to interpret synoptic charts. If you can't see the official BOM forecast on the right circled read the simple forecast in the big picture of Australia."

Yes in 1988 , the Tools weren't as available as nowadays, it is much more accurate. Bom is good , the trove link claims to be Bom too . Your saying they are good , i have found inaccuracies, but thats typical as thats what i do in my trade . I look for errors in forecasts and use hindcasts to confirm them . Plus , Bom also said 3 Metre swell too (20th). Theres a serious contradiction there , a flawed theory, because Bom are accurate right, you said ?

The synoptic weather maps, minimum and maximum temperature accurate as they were recorded on the day and reported in the following days newspaper as was clearly labelled. The minimum temperature from midnight to 7.30 am on 10th June 1988 was between 11 and 14 degrees. Similar to a summers day in England, wouldn't you say? That accurate synoptic chart is also posted the day after it occurred so no guessing there either. Just depends if you can read it or not. That's where BOM had to be accurate as they didn't have as many tools available to them So reading the same synoptic charts as you and having the evidence of the weather that occurred and was recorded in the previous and following days they were proved to be accurate.

What was not accurate was http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...97-Perth-WA-14/page62&p=13393776#post13393776

Quote metic: Quotefrom *researcher; " it was a stormy period ! i think currentsdefinitely would have been north to south… and big waves too" Initialreply from Physical oceanographer ....Also of note ;
It was stormy wild wetwinter weather conditions before the 21st and after the 23rd which must havemade searching very difficult . Not surprisingly the car was found during the(only) finest day of all the period 15th-28th june 1988.

This was accurate:
"...The front was fragmented in structure and rainfall was only expected to be light in inland districts. The front had brought one of the few SW changes in recent weeks, consequently colder air of southern origin was extending through the SW. Pressures are expected to rise rapidly behind the front and fine weather was expected to develop in the SW. ...

This is shown to be correct from the weather that occurred and recorded both before and after and previously published here.

Monday 20th June 1988 Temp 10.7 degrees at 7.30 am and max 18.4 degrees at 2.25 pm. (published West Australian 21 June 1988)

Tuesday 21[SUP]st[/SUP] June 1988 Forecast Perth fine and cool. North East winds 5 to 12 knots. Seas should be 0.5 m on a swell to 2.5 m.Temp 8 – 19 degrees.
Extended forecast: With a high pressure cell establishing itself over the southern half, fine conditions should persist over the State until late tomorrow. A front should approach the coast tomorrow night and cross the lower west coast on Thursday.

Wednesday 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] June 1988 Forecast Fine. Outlook showers developing. Temp 10 – 20.
Fine and sunny conditions prevailed through the northern half, while the southern half experienced similar conditions at 4.00pm yesterday. A high pressure system was located over the Eucla and is presently bringing fine weather to almost the whole state. These conditions should persist except for the extreme SW corner where isolated showers are forecast. With clear skies and light winds inland areas should be in for another cold night with local frosts in the southern half. The seasonal fine weather should persist in the northern half.

 

[meticulously]

I really, really REALLY don't want to feed the weather and wave debate.... but...
How could the seat of the BLF end up SOUTH of the groyne and the car was situated NORTH of the groyne unless the seat was thrown off the groin towards the south and the car driven in towards the north.

Weather in winter in Perth usually comes from the South/South West unless there is unusually warm temperatures and a thunderstorm weather pattern rolls in from the North.

FYI for those arguing about whether it was rough enough to damage the LBF, the groynes along our beaches were built to protect the beaches from the harsh erosive and pounding effects of our surf. Our surf is unrelenting.

Bunnie quote :
"How could the seat of the BLF end up SOUTH of the groyne and the car was situated NORTH of the groyne unless the seat was thrown off the groin towards the south and the car driven in towards the north."


That could be the southward flowing current Bunnie .
Great question what happened with the seat ?
Ive provided details about the current at least 5 times,
theres nothing surprising about the seat possibly being taken southward in the ocean current.
The swell may have been making a "Longshore current" that was going southward .
The leeuwin current is a worldwide anomaly .
It wasnt widely known about in 1988 and still even now west australians dont know about it .
One of the first things i noticed that rang alarm bells for me , was in the newspaper reports it said police had searched as far north as yanchep.
That might be because back in 1988 the average person wasnt aware of the southward current, mostly just scientists were aware .
Imo the police should have been searching south of cottesloe.
I fear a major error, if the search was not southwards of Cottesloe beach .

 

[petedavo.au]

Rather than discuss the weather, would anyone like to see a scene out of a movie film that was filmed at the last place anyone saw Julie Cutler alive?

 

[Innerchild]

I really, really REALLY don't want to feed the weather and wave debate.... but...
How could the seat of the BLF end up SOUTH of the groyne and the car was situated NORTH of the groyne unless the seat was thrown off the groin towards the south and the car driven in towards the north.

Weather in winter in Perth usually comes from the South/South West unless there is unusually warm temperatures and a thunderstorm weather pattern rolls in from the North.

FYI for those arguing about whether it was rough enough to damage the LBF, the groynes along our beaches were built to protect the beaches from the harsh erosive and pounding effects of our surf. Our surf is unrelenting.

Lucky for you this has nothing to do with the weather. The BLF's car seat had to enter the ocean before the car did. IMO it was thrown off the groyne and the car entered the ocean only a matter of hour before it was found on the 22nd June 1988. It's lights were on when it entered the water and when it was found according to reports. IMO with the Ranger on the beach early every week morning, joggers, swimmers, and other beach users it would not have gone unnoticed and it didn't.

IMO there was an accident before the car entered the water which made it undrivable. It could have been disposed of anywhere else but it wasn't. It ended up in the ocean at Cottesloe Beach wanting to be found and really is the only evidence (besides clothes and possibly a wallet that turned up) that could shed some light on what happened to JC. Just my opinions.

 

[petedavo.au]

Lucky for you this has nothing to do with the weather. The BLF's car seat had to enter the ocean before the car did. IMO it was thrown off the groyne and the car entered the ocean only a matter of hour before it was found on the 22nd June 1988. It's lights were on when it entered the water and when it was found according to reports. IMO with the Ranger on the beach early every week morning, joggers, swimmers, and other beach users it would not have gone unnoticed and it didn't.

IMO there was an accident before the car entered the water which made it undrivable. It could have been disposed of anywhere else but it wasn't. It ended up in the ocean at Cottesloe Beach wanting to be found and really is the only evidence (besides clothes and possibly a wallet that turned up) that could shed some light on what happened to JC. Just my opinions.

Any idea of a motive for hurling it at the Ocean gods?

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[Gtdevil]

New member : it's so interesting to read there's so many things I remember I was in mlc Claremont when these girls originally went missing/found the fear amounted by us young girls walking in groups!! Now to see this man who cause years of pain and fear get more time to "get away" ?! The system seems unfair to the victims and their families

 

[Innerchild]

Perhaps it was pushed into the pylon by waves ?
What's the chance of that happening ?
seems most likely , as the car was found nearby to the pylon .

https://goo.gl/images/z6WPjX

For the Fiat to be pushed into the pylon by the waves it would have to be dropped further out to sea that the pylon. You've said yourself if it was on the sand it wouldn't have been able to go out to sea, which is correct. From reports it was 50 m from groyne, and that would mean 100 m from pylon.

Originally Posted by meticulously
50 metres is one of the top end distances reported, iirc other reports had it at a lesser distance, (perhaps as low as 35 metres? Unconfirmed atm) Even in a calm ocean i dont think the car could roll into the ocean that far (35m) Let alone 50m is not a possibility imo. The 2nd and 3rd nights had reasonably calm enough ocean conditions . The waves possibly inconsistent enough, so its possible that at times there was gaps between waves .To roll unmanned / unwomanned seems less likely to have happened than some other theories such as if a driver Drove the car out into the ocean .
The first night when JC disappeared mon 12:30am was when waves (commonly called) 2.5 metres - 3metres were consistently breaking on the cott beach . Its unlikely that it could be driven out into the waves on the 1st night imo . It seems that waves push cars in, rather than suck cars out .
Thats taking into consideration the shape of cottesloe beach as well . Links have been provided about the waves

.
Jmo
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh.../page89&highlight=claremont+serial+killer+#15

Sea was reported to be 1 m on a 3 m swells with SW winds at 10 to 15 knots easing to 10 knots by late morning. Cott with a SW or WSW wind is protected by groyne and in the swell shadow of Rottnest.

Similar sea, swell and wind conditions occurred between June 1st and 4th 2017 and looked very similar to the actual conditions published in the retrieved car photos.

Live webcam Cottesloe Beach June 4 2017 8.20 am www.mybeach.com

Perth City Coast wave and wind forecast for 3rd and 4th June 2017
8.00 am on 4th June 3 m swell, 17 period.

 

[Innerchild]

Any idea of a motive for hurling it at the Ocean gods?

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Not until I came on here and started reading though a quite a few posts and other ideas.

My ideas were formed initially with the math and mapping knowledge of the improbability of GC and JR being found on a straight line, intersecting Bay View Tce. For my scenario with JC as many have pointed out, it seems to not be possible but neither is any other scenario that I've heard and mine based on my knowledge, background and first hand witness (that I'd initially ignored) is the most likely but it's just my opinion. However it got there, it was incredibly important to someone for JC's car to end up in the ocean at Cott beach.

I believe JC was the first in what's been known as the CSK. The geographic positioning was hugely important to someone with CG and JR IMO.

If JC was the first victim there is a line that extends from the ocean at Cott, though Bay View Tce and St Q (exactly same intersection) that could lead to SS. They would be the first two victims. I had a list of about 8 other clues posted from various other bogs that would fit this scenario and show the end point of the line.

I also didn't have any strong opinion on whether Iona was involved, but again after reading much information here and seeing Google maps being manipulated so Iona Convent Boarding house comes up on the intersection of Bay View and St Q has swayed me to think Iona is important and JC's abduction and possible death was well planned.

I had the accused with a woman as the abductors in JC's scenario, but initially had LW. However after some research on him he may have been up to dodgy things with dodgy mates and had some knowledge but IMO, LW was being set up just like Mallard. All just my opinion.

 

[Pandit]

This imo has been the most important question that was answered with Met's research in the last thread. There was only one dumping event, the car went into the ocean with the back seat and it washed up exactly where we would expect it to in relation to where the car was found. This supports investigators conclusions that the back seat dislodged and pushed out and in on the current to south of the groyne.

This also strongly indicates that if Julie and her personal items were in the car when it went in (and she didn't have her seat belt on) and she drowned, her body and personal items of handbag and shoes would have been found to the south of the car, not the north and against the current.

There was one dumping event, not two.

I really, really REALLY don't want to feed the weather and wave debate.... but...
How could the seat of the BLF end up SOUTH of the groyne and the car was situated NORTH of the groyne unless the seat was thrown off the groin towards the south and the car driven in towards the north.

Weather in winter in Perth usually comes from the South/South West unless there is unusually warm temperatures and a thunderstorm weather pattern rolls in from the North.

FYI for those arguing about whether it was rough enough to damage the LBF, the groynes along our beaches were built to protect the beaches from the harsh erosive and pounding effects of our surf. Our surf is unrelenting.