Australia Claremont Serial Killer, 1996-1997, Perth, Western Australia - #7 *ARREST*

[88mph]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I'd just thought I would chime in on the probability of the two bodies lining up with the Continental hotel. Sorry I'm terrible with maths, but this is how I would work it out:

- The distance between the bodies is approx 78460 meters.
- The distance in latitude is approx 76494 meters
- Lets use a grid system so that each grid square is 10 meters x 10 meters square
- So 76494m would be 7649 x 10 meter squares north to south approximately
- Lets make our grid 7649 x 7649 sqares
- Lets cut one of those dimensions in half because west of Perth is just water and has no real suitable dump sites.
- So we are left with a grid 7649 x 3824 made up of 10m x 10m squares
- The continental hotel is obviously a fixed point and the other two are variables.
- If there was only 1 murder, then the probability of the Continental hotel lining up with the body would be 100% obviously.
- When there is a second body added to the equation, it's a completely different story and the probability increases massively.
- Now the second body could be dumped either North OR South of the Conti, if South then no line would form (this is not really relevant though to calculation)
- The number of grid square in a 7649 x 3824 grid is 29,249,776
- There are approximately 8551 grid squares that the second body could be dumped in for it to line up with the existing two points.
- Therefore the probability of the body being dumped in line with the other two points is approximately 1 in 3420 or 0.029%

Maths wins.



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[WolfDen]

Ok, I rarely believe in coincidences. But please tell me, what serial killer has ever dumped the bodies of their victims, where it has made up or caused a pattern? I had a look at old cases, but haven't been able to find or remember any. There has been theories in the past about other serial killers but none of those have ever been proven.

 

[WolfDen]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I'd just thought I would chime in on the probability of the two bodies lining up with the Continental hotel. Sorry I'm terrible with maths, but this is how I would work it out:

- The distance between the bodies is approx 78460 meters.
- The distance in latitude is approx 76494 meters
- Lets use a grid system so that each grid square is 10 meters x 10 meters square
- So 76494m would be 7649 x 10 meter squares north to south approximately
- Lets make our grid 7649 x 7649 squares (although it could be much larger)
- Lets cut one of those dimensions in half because west of Perth is just water and has no real suitable dump sites.
- So we are left with a grid 7649 x 3824 made up of 10m x 10m squares
- The continental hotel is obviously a fixed point and the other two are variables.
- If there was only 1 murder, then the probability of the Continental hotel lining up with the body would be 100% obviously.
- When there is a second body added to the equation, it's a completely different story and the probability increases massively.
- The number of grid squares in a 7649 x 3824 grid is 29,249,776
- There are approximately 8551 grid squares that the second body could be dumped in for it to line up with the existing two points. This is actually too many, because I based it on the hypotenuse calculation of our grid.
- Therefore the probability of the body being dumped in line with the other two points is less than approximately 1 in 3420 or 0.029%
- That is of course allowing the body to be within 10 meters of the line.

8551 grid squares that the body could of been dumped in? I still think thats a lot of different places that the body could be dumped in for it to still line up.

 

[SteveG72]

Ok, I rarely believe in coincidences. But please tell me, what serial killer has ever dumped the bodies of their victims, where it has made up or caused a pattern? I had a look at old cases, but haven't been able to find or remember any. There has been theories in the past about other serial killers but none of those have ever been proven.

 

[WolfDen]

Zodiac? Not sure what that map is supposed to represent? :thinking:

Are you saying there was a pattern to Zodiacs killing sites. Never had heard about that before...

The dots are unsolved homicides?? Finding that hard to believe..

 

[meticulously]

Very fascinating steve .
what is the diagram about , please tell ?
No lines are 180° there .
Is it the black dots that are marked , or coloured ? Thank you

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[Foolio79]

Interesting way of looking at it but its flawed. It only works if the dumping of the second body is completely random.

If on the other hand, the killer decided to drive roughly for the same distance in the opposite direction then the odds are much greater.

Long time lurker, first time poster. I'd just thought I would chime in on the probability of the two bodies lining up with the Continental hotel. Sorry I'm terrible with maths, but this is how I would work it out:

- The distance between the bodies is approx 78460 meters.
- The distance in latitude is approx 76494 meters
- Lets use a grid system so that each grid square is 10 meters x 10 meters square
- So 76494m would be 7649 x 10 meter squares north to south approximately
- Lets make our grid 7649 x 7649 squares (although it could be much larger)
- Lets cut one of those dimensions in half because west of Perth is just water and has no real suitable dump sites.
- So we are left with a grid 7649 x 3824 made up of 10m x 10m squares
- The continental hotel is obviously a fixed point and the other two are variables.
- If there was only 1 murder, then the probability of the Continental hotel lining up with the body would be 100% obviously.
- When there is a second body added to the equation, it's a completely different story and the probability increases massively.
- The number of grid squares in a 7649 x 3824 grid is 30,396,976
- There are approximately 8551 grid squares that the second body could be dumped in for it to line up with the existing two points. This is actually too many, because I based it on the hypotenuse calculation of our grid.
- Therefore the probability of the body being dumped in line with the other two points is less than approximately 1 in 3554 or 0.028%
- That is of course allowing the body to be within 10 meters of the line.

EDIT: Actually looking at the map, you could realistically exclude approximately half of that grid because its suburbs or built up area. If you worked on only half of those grid squares being suitable, and then exuding all of the ones that are not near a road which would only be guess at 20% of those. Maybe 0.1% max

Also: My windows calculator crapped out with those figures, apparently it has a cap or something, so check yourself.

 

[JBA512]

I knew lisaMs brother (decades ago) and often wondered how he was affected by her disappearance

How old was her brother at the time Lisa disappeared & SS disappeared?

 

[Polenta Parrot]

I Haven't told them yet. Jim Stanbury told me not to report anything to them unless I found a body.

But I have sent it to Liam Bartlett to give him a heads up if I investigate more carefully and do some digging. But I also want Paul Ferguson to have a look in case I damage any forensic evidence.

I know it's a long shot, but you never know, the police may be interested in bones and underwear.

 

[JBA512]

I vote coincidence.

If SS is found on the line would your vote be different?

I would vote coincidence too if the line passed somewhere though claremont but being that precise an alignment to a key location seems too planned

 

[meticulously]

How old was her brother at the time Lisa disappeared & SS disappeared?

SM born approx 1972 .
I didn't meet him until a few yrs after lisa disappeared . (Definitely not a poi either)

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[Nugget77]

You realise that if either body was a mere 20 left or right from its location that the line would not intercept the Claremont Hotel.

It's like saying that it's just a coincidence all the girls went missing from Claremont.

A coincidence in the case is that two girls went to Iona.


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1. If the killer is trying to create a pattern, why not dump the bodies a similar distance apart from Claremont. The difference in distance contradicts the pattern.
2. How certain are we that the dump-sites are that exact? There always seems to be some disagreement about them.

 

[Mo Joe]

1. If the killer is trying to create a pattern, why not dump the bodies a similar distance apart from Claremont. The difference in distance contradicts the pattern.
2. How certain are we that the dump-sites are that exact? There always seems to be some disagreement about them.

He may have dumped SS, then JR, and later decided the only way that SS would be found was to make sure CG pointed to her?

 

[Mo Joe]

He may have dumped SS, then JR, and later decided the only way that SS would be found was to make sure CG pointed to her?

WHY was he described as a serial killer so early in the investigation? Either the Police didn't know how many murders made a serial killer (unlikely), or they were sure he had murdered before Claremont? Any other reasons?

 

[Mo Joe]

Would Mundaring Weir Rd be described as more of a 'dead end road' than JR's and CG's disposal sites? If SS happens to be east, this tells us a lot more about the killer I think.

 

[meticulously]

The video makes it seem like Mott is a potential victim.
How does this effect the timeline and estimated age of the CSK?
Would make the karra rape seem like the odd one out if Mott is connected

Jba , theres nothing to link mott with csk except for the line mark link .
Im not discounting it , but nobody except the nuttiest sleuths have claimed it is real over 36 years since lisa went .
Being on the csk line means nothing imo , and there is heavily forested areas around collie which makes the chances of locating remains less likely. I hope for the best outcome for lisas family .
There is a typical signature of many of the pieces of the misinformation that come from the cranks & tricksters and its always a flawed theory, like a cell with cancer .
I cannot see the point in believing the map pattern theory unless you know who is behind the theory to begin with . Why use a random bit of info from anonymous sources that have no credibility , same as glossy trash magazines don't .
Theres more than one person providing the map theories and theyre different but nobody has figured out the best one or discussed the differences or reasons why . same as believing gossip without substance, not to mention the map providers have many hat aliases , and that casts doubt upon the motives behind the maps authenticity .
That is unless you believe that the map clues are given by somebody involved genuinely with credibility ?
I haven't seen any proof of this yet have you? [emoji230] moo

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[meticulously]

WHY was he described as a serial killer so early in the investigation? Either the Police didn't know how many murders made a serial killer (unlikely), or they were sure he had murdered before Claremont? Any other reasons?

It is one of the best enquiries being discussed .

Answer : No idea why mo joe

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[WolfDen]

It is one of the best enquiries being discussed .

Answer : No idea why mo joe

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All I have heard is that after CG disappeared from the same area as SS and JR, that police started believing that they were dealing with a serial killer. Which the CSK case is a good example of a definition of a serial killer.

A serial killer is a person who murders three or more people,[SUP][1][/SUP] usually in service of abnormal psychological gratification, with the murders taking place over more than a month and including a significant break (a "cooling off period") between them.[SUP][1][/SUP][SUP][2][/SUP] Different authorities apply different criteria when designating serial killers;[SUP][3][/SUP] while most set a threshold of three murders,[SUP][1][/SUP] others extend it to four or lessen it to two.[SUP][3][/SUP] The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), for example, defines serial killing as "a series of two or more murders, committed as separate events, usually, but not always, by one offender acting alone".[SUP][2][/SUP][SUP][4]
-Wikipedia[/SUP]

 

[Mo Joe]

Jba , theres nothing to link mott with csk except for the line mark link .
Im not discounting it , but nobody except the nuttiest sleuths have claimed it is real over 36 years since lisa went .
Being on the csk line means nothing imo , and there is heavily forested areas around collie which makes the chances of locating remains less likely. I hope for the best outcome for lisas family .
There is a typical signature of many of the pieces of the misinformation that come from the cranks & tricksters and its always a flawed theory, like a cell with cancer .
I cannot see the point in believing the map pattern theory unless you know who is behind the theory to begin with . Why use a random bit of info from anonymous sources that have no credibility , same as glossy trash magazines don't .
Theres more than one person providing the map theories and theyre different but nobody has figured out the best one or discussed the differences or reasons why . same as believing gossip without substance, not to mention the map providers have many hat aliases , and that casts doubt upon the motives behind the maps authenticity .
That is unless you believe that the map clues are given by somebody involved genuinely with credibility ?
I haven't seen any proof of this yet have you? [emoji230] moo

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Profilers are not nutjobs. If they say SS is probably east, I believe them. Are you disputing the accuracy of the North / South line?

 

[Mo Joe]

What was the response from Liam Bartlett? Has anyone spoken to Bret Christian yet?