Australia Australia - Theo Hayez, 18, Belgian backpacker, Byron Bay, 31 May 2019 #4

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TH Map1.jpg TH Map2.jpg (click each to enlarge both and compare)

L: Map of the route Theo Hayez took. He should have headed NW.
R: Map of the route Theo Hayez was looking at. He thought he was heading NW.

My theory. Theo generally knew he had to walk NW back to his stay. He was a meticulous planner. He trusted the technology which had gotten him thus far into his gap year. However, this instance, Theo inadvertently turned the online compass on his touch-screen phone. So, as he walked in an opposing direction to his destination, the online map Theo was using displayed to him updated and varying roundabout walk routes to correct the direction he was go in. The more Theo followed his touch-screen phone display, the more the online map adjusted its roundabout walk route options in relation to Theo's location. Increasingly disoriented, Theo ran through Milne Track.
 
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Disappearance of Belgian backpacker Theo Hayez in Byron Bay has power to 'transform' investigations | Daily Mail Online

(Quotes from The Australian article bearbear referenced are included in this DM article.)
......
Detectives investigating missing persons and family members desperate to locate their loved ones still have to deal with complicated legal and privacy restrictions delaying access to vital digital information.

Kristina Edwards, counsel assisting New South Wales state coroner Teresa O'Sullivan, told the hearing better use of technology could 'transform' these types of cases.

'It's now the case that within hours, location data and internet data can be obtained from internet service providers like Facebook and like Google but it's not a straightforward process,' Ms Edwards said.
......
Ms Edwards said her team and the manager of the NSW Police missing person register were working with Facebook, Google and Uber to develop a 'joint-protocol' for when a person goes missing.
......
 
Yes, his brother and sister-in-law still update a Facebook page dedicated to his disappearance, which his father used to run. They announced that the father had died a few months ago.

You're talking about a similar case to Theo's, right? Please use a name in each post rather than "his," if you're not writing about Theo.
 
Disappearance of Belgian backpacker Theo Hayez in Byron Bay has power to 'transform' investigations | Daily Mail Online

(Quotes from The Australian article bearbear referenced are included in this DM article.)
......
Detectives investigating missing persons and family members desperate to locate their loved ones still have to deal with complicated legal and privacy restrictions delaying access to vital digital information.

Kristina Edwards, counsel assisting New South Wales state coroner Teresa O'Sullivan, told the hearing better use of technology could 'transform' these types of cases.

'It's now the case that within hours, location data and internet data can be obtained from internet service providers like Facebook and like Google but it's not a straightforward process,' Ms Edwards said.
......
Ms Edwards said her team and the manager of the NSW Police missing person register were working with Facebook, Google and Uber to develop a 'joint-protocol' for when a person goes missing.
......

A couple of days ago I was on a bus as it passed a billboard advertising an idealistic phrase, as best I can recall, "Solve human problems with technology." Possibly, the billboard was advertising a telco or tertiary I.T. course. I tried looking for it earlier today, on foot, but it may have been switched out.

Viewers of Air Crash Investigations (aka: Mayday) TV documentary series will know technology intended to provide solutions create new issues when factoring in other technology, unpredictable weather conditions and human error.

IMO, based on personal experience, Theo Hayez, was entirely reliant on instrument navigating using an online map app on small mobile/cell phone screen in vertical aspect, at night under a waning moon, in backstreets with little or no street lighting, in a small community town he'd arrived at less than a week earlier.

IMO, in this case, somehow, Theo Hayez was navigating with his map app display turned 180 degrees so that compass North displayed in the southerly aspect on his mobile/cell phone.
 
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Boy who fell from Byron Bay cliffs making miraculous recovery

On 23 March 2019 two local boys tried to climb the lighthouse cliff, daytime, at Byron Bay. One of the boys fell and was cared for by a fisherman until rescue service arrived. The other boy, stranded for three hours on a crumbling ledge, was rescued after managing to contact emergency services using his mobile/cell phone.

Byron lighthouse fall.jpg (click to open)
"The man who saved the boy’s life also shared his traumatic experience to reveal just how dangerous it is. 'It’s *advertiser censored**ing twisted having to pick [up] someone’s body who you think is pretty much dead. Head crushed, blood everywhere, then sit next to them for hours [until] rescue,' he said."

Sometime soon after 11pm on 31 May 2019, all contact with Belgian backpacker, Theo Hayez, ceased. It is supposed by NSW Police that Theo somehow lost direction, made his way to Cosy Corner of Tallow Beach before falling from lighthouse cliff face into sea during attempt to navigate way back to hostel stay.

Some Hayez supporters dispute NSW Police findings.
 
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Theo's phone went to sleep south corner of lighthouse for a few hours, awoke, final mobile/cell phone 'ping' possibly from north of lighthouse about 1pm on 01 June 2019.

Someone, possibly a tree hugger, given the locale, found Theo's phone, walked it around/over lighthouse track before phone ran out of battery, then placed phone in a recycle bin.

Hat similar to Theo's found about south side of lighthouse.
 
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Are some suggesting it's plausible he navigated toward a cliff in the dark without even realizing it (possible yes but how plausible?)
Or would he realistically have needed to at least go there on purpose (maybe to enjoy a moonlit view? Is there a moonlit view???) An accident could have then happened.

Just trying to get a feel for the chances he didn't even realize he was near a cliff if that is what happened.
 
Byron Bay moon 20129.jpg (click to open)
Byron Bay moon 2019

Byron Bay weather 2019.jpg (click to open)
Byron Bay weather 2019

Are some suggesting it's plausible he navigated toward a cliff in the dark without even realizing it (possible yes but how plausible?)
Or would he realistically have needed to at least go there on purpose (maybe to enjoy a moonlit view? Is there a moonlit view???) An accident could have then happened.

Just trying to get a feel for the chances he didn't even realize he was near a cliff if that is what happened.

Theo was said not be be an impulsive person. Apparently, he planned his entire gap year, meticulously. Going off that, Theo may have mapped the route from Cheeky Monkey restaurant bar and saved it, beforehand. CCTV video released show him looking intently at his mobile/cell phone on his way back to Wake Up hostel.

From timeanddate dotcom the moon was waning. Fading. Third quarter at 02:33am on 27 May. New moon (moonless) 3rd June at 08:01pm. Theo disappeared sometime after 11:00pm on 31 May. Partially cloudy night.

Temperature dropped to about 5 degrees celsius (41 Farenheit).

And, as backpackers are well aware, there is poisonous wildlife in Australia.

By my reckoning, Theo thought he knew where he was until he got to the beach. He's assumed his map app was somehow in error in guiding him there. Backtracking through dense scrub (more scrub and denser than he anticipated) at night was then not an option.
 
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By my reckoning, Theo thought he knew where he was until he got to the beach. He's assumed his map app was somehow in error in guiding him there. Backtracking through dense scrub at night was then not an option

Are you saying you think it's possible he walked through brush in the dark, thinking somehow that could be correct, and then realized it wasn't but it was too dark to navigate back to a street and he ended up at a cliff's edge accidentally?
 
Theo Hayez map.jpg (click to open)

Are you saying you think it's possible he walked through brush in the dark, thinking somehow that could be correct, and then realized it wasn't but it was too dark to navigate back to a street and he ended up at a cliff's edge accidentally?

Single point of failure - Wikipedia
"A single point of failure (SPOF) is a part of a system that, if it fails, will stop the entire system from working."
No

Chain of events (accident analysis) - Wikipedia
"In accident analysis, a chain of events (or error chain) consists of the contributing factors leading to an undesired outcome."
Likely

Swiss cheese model - Wikipedia
"The model includes active and latent failures. Active failures encompass the unsafe acts that can be directly linked to an accident, such as (in the case of aircraft accidents) a navigation error. Latent failures include contributory factors that may lie dormant for days, weeks, or months until they contribute to the accident."
Yes
 
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I think this sort of person would be much more likely to try and find the owner of the phone.
They would hand it in to the Police if they couldn't access the phone and/or contact the owners friends or relatives on it.

Someone, possibly a tree hugger, given the locale, found Theo's phone, walked it around/over lighthouse track before phone ran out of battery, then placed phone in a recycle bin.
 
View attachment 275881 (click to open)
Byron Bay moon 2019

View attachment 275880 (click to open)
Byron Bay weather 2019



Theo was said not be be an impulsive person. Apparently, he planned his entire gap year, meticulously. Going off that, Theo may have mapped the route from Cheeky Monkey restaurant bar and saved it, beforehand. CCTV video released show him looking intently at his mobile/cell phone on his way back to Wake Up hostel.

From timeanddate dotcom the moon was waning. Fading. Third quarter at 02:33am on 27 May. New moon (moonless) 3rd June at 08:01pm. Theo disappeared sometime after 11:00pm on 31 May. Partially cloudy night.

Temperature dropped to about 5 degrees celsius (41 Farenheit).

And, as backpackers are well aware, there is poisonous wildlife in Australia.

By my reckoning, Theo thought he knew where he was until he got to the beach. He's assumed his map app was somehow in error in guiding him there. Backtracking through dense scrub (more scrub and denser than he anticipated) at night was then not an option.
You would probably benefit from reading through the last four threads and comparing your theories to similar ones and seeing if anything feels concurrent.
 
Hayez.jpg (click to open)
Theo Hayez on CCTV

You would probably benefit from reading through the last four threads and comparing your theories to similar ones and seeing if anything feels concurrent.

Theo Hayez walked past a styled graffiti minivan.

Was the styled graffiti minivan a courtesy bus back to his hostel?

Has he been cajoled/pranked by in-house/contracted security 'bouncers' into which direction to take?

The restaurant bar Theo politely exited is now closed until further notice. That particular restaurant bar, and their security, rate quite low on a particular online travel advisor ratings website.
 
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View attachment 276178 (click to open)
Theo Hayez on CCTV



Theo Hayez walked past a styled graffiti minivan.

Was the styled graffiti minivan a courtesy bus back to his hostel?

Has he been cajoled/pranked by in-house/contracted security 'bouncers' into which direction to take?

The restaurant bar Theo politely exited is now closed until further notice. That particular restaurant bar, and their security, rate quite low on a particular online travel advisor ratings website.

As a local I can confirm cheekies closed when Covid hit and never reopened. It was a bar not restaurant.
That van was their courtesy bus, it had photos on the side.
There is no security footage provided for the back door of cheekies, “it was out of order”.
It was not known for being a high class bar, it was a “backpackers” bar. Very casual, party games, wet tshirt comps etc.

Have you read all the other threads?
 
Cheeky Monkey's.jpg (click to open)
Cheeky Monkey's Backpacker Restaurant & 3am Party Bar

You would probably benefit from reading through the last four threads and comparing your theories to similar ones and seeing if anything feels concurrent.

As a local I can confirm cheekies closed when Covid hit and never reopened. It was a bar not restaurant.
That van was their courtesy bus, it had photos on the side.
There is no security footage provided for the back door of cheekies, “it was out of order”.
It was not known for being a high class bar, it was a “backpackers” bar. Very casual, party games, wet tshirt comps etc.

Have you read all the other threads?

Cheeky Monkey's may, at one time, have held a restaurant alcohol ("intention to dine") licence to 23:00 after which their licence reverted to a bar only licence as per Responsible Service of Alcohol NSW legislation.

NSW liquor laws saw Cheeky Monkey's 3a.m. closing time permit get pared back to 02:00 close with 01:00 lockout.

There was an instance in which Cheeky Monkey's was charged by authorities for having no security staff. (I saved the link but hours later it has changed.)

As for the courtesy bus on CCTV. Bus appears without driver as Theo walks past looking intently at his mobile phone.

From about 23:00 Friday, Theo couldn't wait until Cheeky Monkey's closed early hours Saturday morning in order to queue for a single crammed courtesy bus departing for backpacker hostels in the area?
 
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You would probably benefit from reading through the last four threads and comparing your theories to similar ones and seeing if anything feels concurrent.

Were this a cold case I most certainly would have read every post of every thread at least once. I did benefit from reading what I have here and elsewhere.

However, I did not come across a post noting that if police can pinpoint Theo's phone route then they can also pinpoint any accompanying person's phone route.

Abduction by commune may be eliminated. In this case, commune income is most likely in the form of government benefits. Income from Centrelink is mandatory online nowadays. Registration requires a phone number, email address, bank account and keeping in touch on a fortnightly basis. Bank accounts require a phone number and an email address. All this makes living entirely off-grid difficult and uncomfortable.
 
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