Australia Australia - William Tyrrell, 3, Kendall, NSW, 12 Sept 2014 - #23

[sosocurious]

[/B]

BBM
so he does know something then. Why else would there be fireworks?

On the subject of POI's....I would say that there are quite a few. I have a few myself...I count about 10. I think for every one POI there could potentially be at least 1 or more 'spin-off' POI's.

Exactly.
And his knockabout, gun barrel-straight shooting local mate who believes what he says and says what he believes. Though, now the reluctant spokesperson would know

imo

 

[stormyseas]

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/inside-the-mind-of-william-tyrrells-abductor-20150911-gjkqyz.html

Inside the mind of William Tyrrell's abductor

Because only family knew in advance of toddler's visit to Kendall, police believe his kidnapper was in the area beforehand.

Rachel Olding and Ava Benny-Morrison
September 13 2015

'Forensic psychologist Dr Yule said police were working on a reasonably narrow abduction scenario.

"There may be a misconception that there is a lot that we don't know about this case. I've visited the crime scene multiple times and there is a lot of information that that location tells us," Dr Yule said.

"Combining that with assessing all the leads that have come into the investigation so far, there really are a limited number of possibilities that can account for William's disappearance and from that there are actually a lot of inferences we can draw about what has likely happened and the likely personality of a person or persons who may be involved."

William vanished from a dead-end street on the edge of a small town. No one but his parents and grandmother knew in advance of his visit to Kendall.

his has made police confident that the person who kidnapped him was already in the area.

"You would have to have some other reason to be there and take that opportunity; either visiting, residing or working in the vicinity."

There was only a narrow window of opportunity to take William, who was snatched in broad daylight and with a significant risk of being seen by someone on the balcony of William's home as well as neighbouring properties.

This has made police certain that the kidnapper was impulsive and took tremendous risks.

And if they took tremendous risks, mistakes were almost certainly made.

"It does seem that this was an opportunistic crime and when somebody makes that kind of impulsive decision, mistakes are made and it's those kind of mistakes that the investigation is focusing on," Dr Yule said.'

This really bothers me. According to this article the investigators are working on the assumption that William's abduction was an impulsive act. If that is the case, then why has there been no trace of him or any clues as to what may have happened? It's almost as if the 'perfect crime' has been committed, yet how is that possible if it was not pre-planned? IMO

 

[ozazure]

This really bothers me. According to this article the investigators are working on the assumption that William's abduction was an impulsive act. If that is the case, then why has there been no trace of him or any clues as to what may have happened? It's almost as if the 'perfect crime' has been committed, yet how is that possible if it was not pre-planned? IMO

I guess it is because big risks = big dividends. The more random the fact they crossed paths, the smaller the window of opportunity and decision making, the less ties there are between before and after the crime.

So frustrating! If it had happened in suburbia it wouldn't be such a conundrum.

 

[Bohemian]

[RSBM].

This really bothers me. According to this article the investigators are working on the assumption that William's abduction was an impulsive act. If that is the case, then why has there been no trace of him or any clues as to what may have happened? It's almost as if the 'perfect crime' has been committed, yet how is that possible if it was not pre-planned? IMO

I don't think Strike Force Rosann investigators would have, or have had, one line of inquiry, ie; a random opportunistic abduction or a planned kidnapping; exclusively. Det Gary Jubelin said as much here:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E3HNcCOob4Y

In the case of a possible random opportunistic abductions, there have been and are (sadly) plenty of unsolved suspected child abduction/murder cases which serve as examples on WS alone.

eg; Daniel Morcombe being one recent high profile (and now solved) case of opportunistic random abduction. Daniel seemingly disappeared off the face of the earth, It took his parents' tireless efforts to find justice for him, along with investigators, a number of Coronial Inquests and a 'sting', to finally bring his abductor (and eventual murderer) to justice. All up, including the discovery of Daniel's remains, I think his case took around seven years or so.

As there are now 'hundreds of persons of interest' to the investigation into William's disappearance, the investigators must have quite a few lines of inquiry yet to be resolved before they settle on a suspect. In other words, they have been, and are, keeping all of their options open.

 

[sosocurious]

I don't think Strike Force Rosann investigators would have, or have had, one line of inquiry, ie; a random opportunistic abduction or a planned kidnapping; exclusively. Det Gary Jubelin said as much here:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E3HNcCOob4Y

In the case of a possible random opportunistic abductions, there have been and are (sadly) plenty of unsolved suspected child abduction/murder cases which serve as examples on WS alone.



As there are now 'hundreds of persons of interest' to the investigation into William's disappearance, the investigators must have quite a few lines of inquiry yet to be resolved before they settle on a suspect. In other words, they have been, and are, keeping all of their options open.

Police who are investigating the dis*appear*ance of three-year-old William Tyrrell from the NSW mid-north coast have identified hundreds of “persons of interest” to their *inquiry and have called in other squads of detectives to help rule out many of these names.
As only a few of these people were previously identified by the press, the real scale of the investig*ation has not been *revealed *before.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...e/news-story/ef4adf3fa3d71f49585e74442f534b0a

There were 200 people from memory in the hot zone at the time William disappeared.
Which Sarah Yule said that the person(s) was living, visiting, working or had a reason to be there.

Could the release of 100 poi be a strategic release to the media as were the cars after some 12 months?

What I mean is are there currently 100 poi OR have there been 100 poi during the course of the investigation ?

imo

 

[Bohemian]

Police who are investigating the dis*appear*ance of three-year-old William Tyrrell from the NSW mid-north coast have identified hundreds of “persons of interest” to their *inquiry and have called in other squads of detectives to help rule out many of these names.
As only a few of these people were previously identified by the press, the real scale of the investig*ation has not been *revealed *before.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...e/news-story/ef4adf3fa3d71f49585e74442f534b0a

There were 200 people from memory in the hot zone at the time William disappeared.
Which Sarah Yule said that the person(s) was living, visiting, working or had a reason to be there.

Could the release of 100 poi be a strategic release to the media as were the cars after some 12 months?

What I mean is are there currently 100 poi OR have there been 100 poi during the course of the investigation ?

imo

Yes, soso, I often don't know if it's past or present when it comes to the release of information. I'm trying to make sense of it all. A handful of POIs we are told about, the 'hundreds' that remain unspecified, the scale of the investigation, when extra police were seconded from SCC. Det Gary Jubelin has said time and time again 'everything is strategic' or words to that effect. As I've always said, he'd make an excellent poker player - he has no 'tell' as far as I can see. I greatly admire him as an investigator but as 'an interested member of the public' and a WSer, he drives me bat**** crazy.

 

[Deleted member 102539]

Recently I read a story about a murder case gone cold. First suspect was the husband of the murdered woman. When 1 year after the murder police learned that the husband was gay/bi they asked for permission to release these news to the newspapers. Immediately after it was published police didn't get any informations on their hotline. Before the news there had been many tips/calls.

‘My mum and him were best friends and they fell in love. He had never been in love with a woman before so it was a very special relationship. Unfortunately when it was leaked to the public, everybody said it was a gay tryst, that some bitter ex-lover must have murdered her. It killed the investigation and it killed him, because people to this day will still turn their noses up at him.’

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you...ust-need-know-murdered-mum.html#ixzz4JGc5q200

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Penny_Bell

So all the publishing is strategic and the infos or time of release are very important to the investigation - a dangerous field it seems.

 

[Deleted member 102539]

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/inside-the-mind-of-william-tyrrells-abductor-20150911-gjkqyz.html

Inside the mind of William Tyrrell's abductor

Because only family knew in advance of toddler's visit to Kendall, police believe his kidnapper was in the area beforehand.

Rachel Olding and Ava Benny-Morrison
September 13 2015

'Forensic psychologist Dr Yule said police were working on a reasonably narrow abduction scenario.

"There may be a misconception that there is a lot that we don't know about this case. I've visited the crime scene multiple times and there is a lot of information that that location tells us," Dr Yule said.

"Combining that with assessing all the leads that have come into the investigation so far, there really are a limited number of possibilities that can account for William's disappearance and from that there are actually a lot of inferences we can draw about what has likely happened and the likely personality of a person or persons who may be involved."

William vanished from a dead-end street on the edge of a small town. No one but his parents and grandmother knew in advance of his visit to Kendall.

his has made police confident that the person who kidnapped him was already in the area.

"You would have to have some other reason to be there and take that opportunity; either visiting, residing or working in the vicinity."

There was only a narrow window of opportunity to take William, who was snatched in broad daylight and with a significant risk of being seen by someone on the balcony of William's home as well as neighbouring properties.

This has made police certain that the kidnapper was impulsive and took tremendous risks.

And if they took tremendous risks, mistakes were almost certainly made.

"It does seem that this was an opportunistic crime and when somebody makes that kind of impulsive decision, mistakes are made and it's those kind of mistakes that the investigation is focusing on," Dr Yule said.'

This really bothers me. According to this article the investigators are working on the assumption that William's abduction was an impulsive act. If that is the case, then why has there been no trace of him or any clues as to what may have happened? It's almost as if the 'perfect crime' has been committed, yet how is that possible if it was not pre-planned? IMO

I wonder: which "mistakes" were made if little William after 2 years still isn't found and if there are hundreds of possible POIs?? The "mistakes" can't be important (enough) it seems.

 

[Ochre Blue]

I just read on Twitter on a post by 'The Australian' (paywalled for me unfortunately):
'Hundreds of persons of interest in William Tyrrell case'.
My mind is totally boggled- HUNDREDS!!!!!

 

[Ochre Blue]

And more in the 'Daily Mail' using 'The Australian' article as a source:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-hundreds-persons-interest.html#ixzz4JE6SPdHu

 

[Bohemian]

I wonder: which "mistakes" were made if little William after 2 years still isn't found and if there are hundreds of possible POIs?? The "mistakes" can't be important (enough) it seems.

Maybe not obvious (enough) mistakes.

 

[Bohemian]

They've released information about:

• extra police assigned from SCC squads and areas surrounding Port Macquarie LAC;
• 'hundreds of POIs';
• POIs are divided into two 'target' groups, high priority (Rosann) and low priority (SCC investigators and local police); and
• 'scale of the investigation' hasn't been revealed publicly before now.

Anything I've missed or that is incorrect?

 

[crabstick]

Where there is smoke,. there is fricken fire. Buy your kiddie pictures here. Druggies will do anything for money. It has turned into a giant net.

Someone is going to say "I heard that ...." Kaboooom!

BBM: That's correct Soso.

Well homicide has had the lead from early on and sex crimes have been involved from the get goes.
With all that scrap being collected, cars being given away, business opening and closing, government housing applications.
I was thinking with so many poi and some just low level, that maybe the drugs, fraud, property and theft even the organised crime squads might be helping Roseann out.
imo

 

[richieswan]

Where there is smoke,. there is fricken fire. Buy your kiddie pictures here. Druggies will do anything for money. It has turned into a giant net.

Someone is going to say "I heard that ...." Kaboooom!

It has dawned on me another way to transfer photos or messages without the Internet or phone service. You can simply share your home/office wifi connection with anyone in range and use a file transfer app to move data locally (ie not via the Internet or phone service). It means the 'receiver' just needs to park outside and copy whatever files they have access to. A shop is a perfect cover because a car parked out front doesn't look suspicious. You could even put a unique 'sign' in the shop window letting your clients know there is a new set of photos ready. A 'sign' like a red guitar for sale. The clients pay upfront by purchasing a used phone in this shop, a very expensive phone from the bottom drawer. The phone is set up with the wifi login and certain folders made accessible with a password. There could be different subscription prices depending on content or duration. None of this would be traceable on the Internet.

 

[Bohemian]

Where there is smoke,. there is fricken fire. Buy your kiddie pictures here. Druggies will do anything for money. It has turned into a giant net.

Someone is going to say "I heard that ...." Kaboooom!

I know what you're saying and why you're saying it, crabby. I think the final outcome of these investigations will be explosive. Not only regarding William, although his disappearance mobilised the public and, subsequently government and police. I think whoever took William will rue the day they did; on several fronts.

 

[Bohemian]

It has dawned on me another way to transfer photos or messages without the Internet or phone service. You can simply share your home/office wifi connection with anyone in range and use a file transfer app to move data locally (ie not via the Internet or phone service). It means the 'receiver' just needs to park outside and copy whatever files they have access to. A shop is a perfect cover because a car parked out front doesn't look suspicious. You could even put a unique 'sign' in the shop window letting your clients know there is a new set of photos ready. A 'sign' like a red guitar for sale. The clients pay upfront by purchasing a used phone in this shop, a very expensive phone from the bottom drawer. The phone is set up with the wifi login and certain folders made accessible with a password. There could be different subscription prices depending on content or duration. None of this would be traceable on the Internet.

Bravo, richie!

Let me make sure I understand this from a 'Computers For Dummies' POV. Similar to P2P but via an app?

 

[richieswan]

Bravo, richie!

Let me make sure I understand this from a 'Computers For Dummies' POV. Similar to P2P but via an app?

Not quite the same as P2P. Think of it more like using your phone to view the files on your desktop computer, then pick the ones to save onto your phone. I use my phone at home like a remote control for my computer. I can move files, rename stuff, delete things, play movies etc, all from the comfort of my lounge......which happens to be next to my computer. Lazy eh.

 

[1968]

It has dawned on me another way to transfer photos or messages without the Internet or phone service. You can simply share your home/office wifi connection with anyone in range and use a file transfer app to move data locally (ie not via the Internet or phone service). It means the 'receiver' just needs to park outside and copy whatever files they have access to. A shop is a perfect cover because a car parked out front doesn't look suspicious. You could even put a unique 'sign' in the shop window letting your clients know there is a new set of photos ready. A 'sign' like a red guitar for sale. The clients pay upfront by purchasing a used phone in this shop, a very expensive phone from the bottom drawer. The phone is set up with the wifi login and certain folders made accessible with a password. There could be different subscription prices depending on content or duration. None of this would be traceable on the Internet.

Wow Richie that is really creepy and strikes me as just how these vile rockspiders would operate.......

 

[Warshawski]

Yes, soso, I often don't know if it's past or present when it comes to the release of information. I'm trying to make sense of it all. A handful of POIs we are told about, the 'hundreds' that remain unspecified, the scale of the investigation, when extra police were seconded from SCC. Det Gary Jubelin has said time and time again 'everything is strategic' or words to that effect. As I've always said, he'd make an excellent poker player - he has no 'tell' as far as I can see. I greatly admire him as an investigator but as 'an interested member of the public' and a WSer, he drives me bat**** crazy.

So with you both in your sentiments Bohemian & Soso. Greater minds than mine for sure, are also puzzled, but I do have faith in Det. Jubelin. And for that very reason I doubt he will have released names without some good reason.

So that suggests that (to be fair) I need to go back to check what / who has been released 'on record', as opposed to 'media speculation' .

 

[Bohemian]

Not quite the same as P2P. Think of it more like using your phone to view the files on your desktop computer, then pick the ones to save onto your phone. I use my phone at home like a remote control for my computer. I can move files, rename stuff, delete things, play movies etc, all from the comfort of my lounge......which happens to be next to my computer. Lazy eh.

Ah, yes, I understand now. Thank you.

Yeah done out of 'laziness' in your case (I would call it being efficient) but pretty diabolical in the previous scenario. I keep forgetting these people will find any way they can to feed their warped desires and not get caught.