Australia Australia - William Tyrrell, 3, Kendall NSW, 12 Sept 2014 - # 5

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Wow, that makes so much sense, thank you jigzy. I hadn't noticed the additional driveway with garage, and right smack at the other end of the balcony, where WT was said to have run under to get to the 'side' of the house.

PS What is 'Occam's Razor', sorry to be so dense, I have heard it before, but no idea what it means.


Hi Deugirtni, the essence of Occam's Razor is that often the simplest solution is the correct one.
 
One might think that a sex offender might tend to hand around places where more children would be around, rather than some semi rural expansive estate property which sounds like it may have more elderly residents? Imagine.. if there is a sex offender that is already known to be a sex offender, and his car was seen, whether it would have been seen lurking, or just noticed in the general area.. how much doodoo he would be in, just for having travelled there. He (and/or his vehicle) could have been noticed by virtually anyone around there, and if it had been reported... he'd have a heap of explaining to do.

You would
I tend to agree. If it was a 'planned' abduction it is possible the perpetrator was driving past, checking out who was around, making notes for when the abduction was to take place...And then they see William on his own running around, no adults in sight. A moment of opportunity?

Sex offenders (convicted or not) are known to be opportunists. Lurking around toilets or places frequented by children. They watch and wait until a child is separated and then offend.

I think all the new coverage is very positive and I'd say police are close and just gathering evidence. Given the wording used by Gary Jubelin I feel like there's more than one person involved (or someone has knowledge of what happened)

For the family I hope there is some resolve. As a parent I couldn't imagine living the rest of my life not knowing. It's so sad.
 
...so I guess, with family members confirmed as being ruled out, <modsnip> then that leaves:

the guy who was asking for directions - though if he's the perp, and if planned, then he'd be crazy to ask directions - if he's the perp, then it would be most likely an opportunistic abduction,
WS - though he's a POI rather than suspect, as far as I can gather,
Someone we haven't heard of yet.

If there was a known sex offender living in that street who was absent with a valid alibi, that doesn't discount friends of the offender from having driven to visit during that timeframe, and seizing the opportunity. Messed up world we live in :(

Jmo.

ETA: here's the link to the latest news article discussed upthread and referred to in my post here: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...lys-web-of-grief/story-fni0cx12-1227233826218
"Detective Inspector Gary Jubelin, confirmed all of William&#8217;s family members had been cleared of any involvement in his disappearance, pointing the finger at an opportunistic stranger."
 
...so I guess, with family members confirmed as being ruled out, and known sex offenders checked out (presumably with solid alibis), then that leaves:

the guy who was asking for directions - though if he's the perp, and if planned, then he'd be crazy to ask directions - if he's the perp, then it would be most likely an opportunistic abduction,
WS - though he's a POI rather than suspect, as far as I can gather,
Someone we haven't heard of yet.

If there was a known sex offender living in that street who was absent with a valid alibi, that doesn't discount friends of the offender from having driven to visit during that timeframe, and seizing the opportunity. Messed up world we live in :(

Jmo.

Yes jigzy

I am having a bit of trouble getting my head around things.
WS still a declared person of interest - but not a suspect.
Police believe he can assist with the investigation.

If it is a random (unknown person) opportunistic abduction.
How would WS be able to help, unless he knows who that person is?

Was WS known to the family?
Did his alibi check out?

With searches of his office and home and he obtaining a lawyer, you still gotta wonder. imo
 
It's interesting that the article that Amee has linked above about families grief calls the parents " the Tyrell family "
 
The track to the left, where the blue sign is leads to the cemetery, which is in the direction of Benaroon Drive, it has been said that there is a track from the end of Benaroon Drive to the cemetery also, ie 2 ways of entering the cemetery although off Albert Street seems to be the main entrance. My initial idea of a get away route via the cemetery.
The above reply was to TGY
You can google walk up to the cemetery entrance.
 
...so I guess, with family members confirmed as being ruled out, and known sex offenders checked out (presumably with solid alibis), then that leaves:

the guy who was asking for directions - though if he's the perp, and if planned, then he'd be crazy to ask directions - if he's the perp, then it would be most likely an opportunistic abduction,
WS - though he's a POI rather than suspect, as far as I can gather,
Someone we haven't heard of yet.

If there was a known sex offender living in that street who was absent with a valid alibi, that doesn't discount friends of the offender from having driven to visit during that timeframe, and seizing the opportunity. Messed up world we live in :(

Jmo.

Sure is. :(

If William was whisked away out of Kendall, it's likely the kidnapper was there to view properties as suggested, or visiting a friend or relative close to William's grandma's house.
An opportunist pedophile is always on the lookout, if he was to arrive at a person's home around 10.30am in Benaroon Dve, saw William, snatched him off the street and fled the scene, then he never turned up for the visit. This person should tell the police their visitor never arrived.
If it's someone searching for a property, they've also done the same, snatched William and fled. If they haven't enquired at the Real Estate about the property beforehand, it makes it impossible to ID them. Unless, it's a return visit because they like the property, a neighbour might remember someone driving slowly, checking a property a week or two before?

Insp Jubelin mentions that a woman or a couple could have taken William, to give him a home. If this is the case, I sure hope it is, because William would be alive and cared for. This is probably the more complex scenario but the best outcome. This person/couple might go to great lengths to disguise William, like dye his hair, imo.

One routine line of inquiry followed by police is to identify known sex offenders in the area and check what each was doing at the time. The investigators are also considering the possibility William may have been taken by someone who was unable to become a parent themselves.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...yrrell-detective/story-e6frg6nf-1227224743038
 
Occam's Razor.

I have been following missing person cases for what seems like forever. I have pretty good instincts due to the career I once had, and this case has me all turned around.

<modsnip>

Keep up the great work. I'll keep watching from the sidelines.
 
Genuine question: why do so many here believe that the cemetery is important in this case? No scent trail leads there.
If it was planned abduction which I don't necessarily believe...William could have been carried to a vehicle could be parked in that area, hence no vehicle noticed on Benaroon Drive.
 
I know this is probably irrelevant but I have been thinking about it...

So you abduct a child but then what? He is 3 probably almost 4 now - you can't exactly put him in a pram with a blanket over it and tell him to shut up or take him in public because most people look at prams or little kids holding their guardians hand etc so he would be recognised. So he would have to stay inside their house/wherever they are keeping him so that they didn't run the risk of getting caught out with him.. Maybe there are more possibilities than what I have considered but did they change his appearance so they could do this alone? (maybe dyed his hair) Is someone else in on this who looks after WT while the other one goes grocery shopping/runs errands or does the person just leave WT by himself while they do those things? (he would most likely cry and neighbours would get suss though). I don't even want to think about the last option but these are all things I have been thinking about.
 
<modsnip>

<modsnip>


Police have said they cannot rule out the possibility the boy was abducted, and the ABC has been told police are also speaking with all known sex offenders in the region.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-20/family-of-missing-3yo-william-tyrell-thank-searchers/5758126

The worst fears of those living nearby centre on the fact that there are several known sex offenders in the area around Bonny Hills and Laurieton, where police have also conducted raids in recent days.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...r-william-tyrell/story-e6frg6nf-1227192655290

One routine line of inquiry followed by police is to identify known sex offenders in the area and check what each was doing at the time.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...yrrell-detective/story-e6frg6nf-1227224743038
 
Yes jigzy

I am having a bit of trouble getting my head around things.
WS still a declared person of interest - but not a suspect.
Police believe he can assist with the investigation.

If it is a random (unknown person) opportunistic abduction.
How would WS be able to help, unless he knows who that person is?

Was WS known to the family?
Did his alibi check out?

With searches of his office and home and he obtaining a lawyer, you still gotta wonder. imo

IF WS was involved, there would have to be some degree of planning, I would think... yet the police are confident it was opportunistic? The mind boggles.

Like others here, I am torn between thinking that the police have someone in mind... or that they have no idea and starting again.
 
Yes jigzy

I am having a bit of trouble getting my head around things.
WS still a declared person of interest - but not a suspect.
Police believe he can assist with the investigation.

If it is a random (unknown person) opportunistic abduction.
How would WS be able to help, unless he knows who that person is?

Was WS known to the family?
Did his alibi check out?

With searches of his office and home and he obtaining a lawyer, you still gotta wonder. imo

Yes, I cannot see how WS fits in with things. He was there days before, but allegedly not on the actual day that William disappeared. How could he be of assistance to the investigation?

Just hypothesising here: Could WS have asked someone to drop off a washing machine part at the property that he would install later? Pics show the lower garage with open access - upon seeing no vehicle in the surfaced driveway by the carport, someone dropping off a part might assume nobody was home, didn't try the doorbell, and went to place the part just inside the lower garage - less hassle. The little boy might have sped around the house and surprised the deliverer who took the opportunity and seized him. Unlikely, but a possibility. I still think it's crazy that the police vehicle parked on that lower, unsurfaced driveway. IMO that's the crucial area for forensic testing. Why, oh why would the LE park there - IMO the cordon should have been extended.
http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/i...Leadwide.620x349.10jqdp.png/1411194248540.jpg
 
<modsnip>

Police have said they cannot rule out the possibility the boy was abducted, and the ABC has been told police are also speaking with all known sex offenders in the region.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-20/family-of-missing-3yo-william-tyrell-thank-searchers/5758126

The worst fears of those living nearby centre on the fact that there are several known sex offenders in the area around Bonny Hills and Laurieton, where police have also conducted raids in recent days.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...r-william-tyrell/story-e6frg6nf-1227192655290

One routine line of inquiry followed by police is to identify known sex offenders in the area and check what each was doing at the time.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...yrrell-detective/story-e6frg6nf-1227224743038

Just want to add ..... in fact, if you look at my 2nd MSM reference ^^^, there could be an offender who is a POI and helping police with their investigations for all we know. :dunno:
 
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