AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #10

[FrayedKnot]

Thanks, peeps, for the poly updates!


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[AnaTeresa]

IMO, most important statement from the presser (of which I missed a few minutes): "we do anticipate to bring Isa home safely".

Next presser: tomorrow at 2pm

What does this even mean? Does it mean they have evidence she is alive? If so, how/why do they not have a description of who took her? I can't decide if this is spin or truth.

 

[Patty G]

Transcript from the Today Show

AC: you know, there is no easy way to ask this question, but because this is your first live television interview, sergio , let me ask you this question. what do you want to say about questions about whether you had anything to do with your daughter's disappearance?

SC: gosh. i wish i knew where to begin. we are so frustrated to try to understand why this is happening, why this had to happen, why isabel had to be targeted. we just don't understand that. and to whomever did this, please, look at her. look at her. she's beautiful. she doesn't deserve this. she deserves to be home. she deserves to be home in her room playing with her brothers and just loving life the way she does. this is -- there's so many things that are just so frustrating and so difficult to deal with.

you --

we just want her home. we just want her home

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/47277...ng-tucson-girls-parents-say-theyre-desperate/

Bump Up

 

[PAXIMUS]

I didn't particularly care if the parents did an interview - I didn't feel it was absolutely necessary, but I'm still up here on the fence. I feel the same about them that I did with the previous interview, that they are hurt and frustrated, but I didn't get any overwhelming sense of guilt.

I tend not to go by my gut though. With these things, I try to stick to the known facts. Right now, known facts are in short supply, so I'll be sitting up here on the fence. :fence:

Thanks for all your responses.

ANA if youre a law student you will soon learn to slowly disregard your gut as as it becomes more and more clear to you in cases you will read and study and mock trial etc that the facts are the only things that matter, not gut feelings, hunches and other strange and irrational reasons people use to explain why they feel as they do.


One problem with LEO is that they are big gut and hunch people and they tend to COME UP WITH A THEORY based on their hunches AND THEN look for evidence to support that theory and this leads to a lot of innocent people being wrongfully accused and often convicted for things they had nothing to do with.

THE RIGHT way to do it is to LET THE FACTS LEAD YOU TO A THEORY, the opposite of what most police do as stated above.

 

[carole]

What does this even mean? Does it mean they have evidence she is alive? If so, how/why do they not have a description of who took her? I can't decide if this is spin or truth.

BBM

I tend to think it is spin - of course, LE always hopes to bring a missing person whether adult or child home alive.

Does anyone else find it unusual/odd that they checked the landfill so early in this case?? After hearing that dogs had an alert (whatever kind of dogs we don't know) in the house, it leads me to believe it was a cadaver dog that had an alert since they went right to checking the landfill.

 

[PAXIMUS]

As I spoke about last night I will likely be going down to that area to clear up some of the questions the late night crew here had last night, I will drive by after I leave the office this evening and see if I can find some of the stuff many of you were asking about. Cant promise anything but I will try!

 

[Fashionista_Gal]

What does this even mean? Does it mean they have evidence she is alive? If so, how/why do they not have a description of who took her? I can't decide if this is spin or truth.

Your comment reminds me of the recent Samantha Koenig case. Weeks went by where no new information was presented to the public from LE. Then they started saying they had reason to believe she was alive, but that was all they said. And this was because they were tracking the perp. They eventually got him and even still were very tight-lipped about who he was or what his real connection was. Unfortunately, she was found dead, but he also apparently started using her cell phone to send text messages to her father demanding ransom money almost a month after her abduction. This information was not revealed until after the arrest had been made.

My point is, IF they do have a person in mind and IF this is a ransom situation, releasing this information to the public might botch their investigation. JMO

 

[PAXIMUS]

Fabian is a guy who chooses his words VERY CAREFULLY, is he the one who said they ANTICIPATE bringing her home safely? That isnt just something he would pull out of his rear end, if he said that he chose those words wisely and with PURPOSE.

 

[Cazzie]

Since it was said at today's presser that there have been no ransom requests of which "we" (LE) are aware...I continue to think that perhaps someone who knows Isa may know more than they are telling LE. As usual, LE knows far more than we do.

Perhaps (if no ransom in the true sense of the word) there has been some other demand or expectation communicated or implied...even revenge for some real or imagined slight.

Very difficult to discuss this case within TOS.

 

[GutFeeling!]

From the press conference: They anticipate bringing her home safely.

They have encouraging leads they are following...

Sounds encouraging...

Sounds great and I so want to believe it but having just followed Samantha Koenig's (may she rest in peace) case and hearing that they too anticipated bringing her home alive, week and week, only to find out she was killed supposedly within hours of being abducted, I am wary.

It seems until LE find proof of a death this is standard.

With all the laws allowing media to actually get information and since Florida's sunshine laws, I think LE is getting very clever in how they (don't) release information until forced by FIO requests.

 

[AnaTeresa]

Thanks for all your responses.

ANA if youre a law student you will soon learn to slowly disregard your gut as as it becomes more and more clear to you in cases you will read and study and mock trial etc that the facts are the only things that matter, not gut feelings, hunches and other strange and irrational reasons people use to explain why they feel as they do.


One problem with LEO is that they are big gut and hunch people and they tend to COME UP WITH A THEORY based on their hunches AND THEN look for evidence to support that theory and this leads to a lot of innocent people being wrongfully accused and often convicted for things they had nothing to do with.

THE RIGHT way to do it is to LET THE FACTS LEAD YOU TO A THEORY, the opposite of what most police do as stated above.

I don't know if I would characterize LE as gut and hunch people. While that certainly can play a part, there are lots of times when I've encountered LE in my job (at a criminal defense firm) that they are hard science, evidence men/women. They want the case to stick in court, after all. A gut instinct may give you an idea where to look, but I don't think LE are necessarily making theories up and then looking to prove things. At least not the LE I have encountered, at any rate.

 

[FrayedKnot]

Hey Paximus-

I completely agree with your post to Ana regarding facts vs. gut.

In your estimable opinion, where do statistics and probability based on comparable cases lie on that spectrum or is a case better served in eschewing anything but the facts of THAT case?

I understand that in court, statistics wouldn't hold enough weight to be admissible. But what about as part of an investigation?

TIA!


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[Cazzie]

Fabian is a guy who chooses his words VERY CAREFULLY, is he the one who said they ANTICIPATE bringing her home safely? That isnt just something he would pull out of his rear end, if he said that he chose those words wisely and with PURPOSE.

No, this was a female LEO, did not catch her name since I was late to the presser.

 

[Madame_X]

Does anyone else find it unusual/odd that they checked the landfill so early in this case?? After hearing that dogs had an alert (whatever kind of dogs we don't know) in the house, it leads me to believe it was a cadaver dog that had an alert since they went right to checking the landfill.

Well, in the case of Jahessye Shockley, if they had checked the landfill sooner, they may have had more success finding her. It seemed to take them weeks before the got around to it, even after they had identified interest in a particular portion of a specific landfill.

If, as someone said, garbage had been picked up earlier the morning that she was reported missing, it makes sense to look there. MOO

 

[GutFeeling!]

Thanks for all your responses.

ANA if youre a law student you will soon learn to slowly disregard your gut as as it becomes more and more clear to you in cases you will read and study and mock trial etc that the facts are the only things that matter, not gut feelings, hunches and other strange and irrational reasons people use to explain why they feel as they do.

Pfffft :floorlaugh:

 

[Cazzie]

Another thing said at the presser was that it is not a matter of budget. They are literally working around the clock (I think she said 40-50 personnel...she may have said detectives/investigators). Things are a little slower at nite due to lack of access to the public (presumably for interviews and following up on tips?), but they are going over everything and preparing for each next day's activities. She said that not an hour goes by that something is not being done. Sorry for the poor paraphrasing, but it makes sense to me.

 

[SmoothOperator]

Question.. would LE really come out and make a statement that they ANTICIPATE being able to bring an alive Isa home IF they had actually had cadaver dogs hit in the home? That for me is absolutely contradicting of each.. IMO one cannot be true if the other is true.. IMO whether they have actual evidence that Isa is still alive or not I do not believe they'd make that statement at all if they had a cadaver dog hit in the home.. moo but their statement today lends credence to their NOT having a cadaver hit in the celis home as many have speculated..

As far as LE releasing the results of their LDT ..LE does not release those results regardless of pass or fail.. that is SOP..

 

[FrayedKnot]

Pfffft :floorlaugh:

Don't worry, Gut! You matter! Lol


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[BetteDavisEyes]

So a question for those who were wanting the parents to do an interview, since I missed most of it IN YOUR OPINION DID THEY PASS THE SMELL TEST or what?

Secondly, what has become of the MALE COUSIN any news on that and did JM turn out to be this MALE COUSIN as opposed to the UNCLE, so we know yet?

I can't speak to the male cousin/uncle because I heard no mention of this today. Overall, the parents' interview with Ann Curry was less contrived and scripted than I expected it to be. :moo:

 

[Anita Richman]

Fabian is a guy who chooses his words VERY CAREFULLY, is he the one who said they ANTICIPATE bringing her home safely? That isnt just something he would pull out of his rear end, if he said that he chose those words wisely and with PURPOSE.

No, it was Sgt. Maria Hawke.