AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #18

[pieper4]

I fixed the words in my post because I added house and that was not what she stated. Although, we have been discussing CPS at the house for days ...

Need to do an "F5" on my brain cells!

My brain has become immune to F5, sadly. NOOooo problems here. I just like putzing around with words/inferences.

 

[WhatsupAZ]

Just a few questions....only speculating:

1. Would cps visit a family if a teenager was caught smoking pot (minor incedent)?
2. Arent mostly all marijuana related dui's in AZ dropped due to "lack of evidence" while most all alchohol related dui's are highly prosecuted (just personal experience and observation)
3. Speculation only!: maybe through investigation it was discovered or admidted that sc smokes pot, pretty innocent in the grand scheme of things, but still illegal. Would that warrent CPS interception while holding up the family's view that the whole matter is absurd? Only my opinion...

And all mute points if they are responsible in some way for isa's dissapearance. I guess I am just trying to quelch my hinky inkling.
jmo

 

[callyn]

More fun with words and their usage. "Sergio has never directly communicated with CPS before last Thursday"... if true, that tells us only ONE thing. Sergio never reported anyone to CPS. And that's the sum total.

Of course, his sister may be mistaken, skewing the facts or simply unclear on the facts.

:le sigh:

Now I'm confused again, if CPS and Sergio talked for any reason, wouldn't that be considered direct communication? sigh, I think I give up on this now, brain is wilting......

 

[carole]

Yes it is possible but not if the visit had anything to do with his wife and children. If another family was staying with them then CPS could have visited that family at their address or the Celis' did not live there at that time. IMOO

BBM

The Celis family moved into the house right after it was built. No other family has lived there.

 

[pieper4]

FWIW I just asked a close relative who is LE in AZ what the "local feeling" is for what happened to Isabel. They responded to me that their friend is a US Marshall and that "word" is that "the dad" has serious drug debt related to the cartel and that Isabel is most likely in Mexico and is dead.

Even after the cartel word being thrown around here so frequently, it really shocked me to hear that reply.

It's a pretty common rumbling in Tucson and our LE and has been for some time. There seem to be two schools of thought, though... one pertains to an informant connection and not drugs directly; the other as you mention above. The first has a far higher likelihood that Isabel is alive and I personally think is closer to a possible truth.

How's that for couching my opinions... and only my opinions?!? :rocker:

 

[mamamia54]

Just a few questions....only speculating:

1. Would cps visit a family if a teenager was caught smoking pot (minor incedent)?
2. Arent mostly all marijuana related dui's in AZ dropped due to "lack of evidence" while most all alchohol related dui's are highly prosecuted (just personal experience and observation)
3. Speculation only!: maybe through investigation it was discovered or admidted that sc smokes pot, pretty innocent in the grand scheme of things, but still illegal. Would that warrent CPS interception while holding up the family's view that the whole matter is absurd? Only my opinion...

And all mute points if they are responsible in some way for isa's dissapearance. I guess I am just trying to quelch my hinky inkling.
jmo

Excellent, that's what I wanted. I love 1 & 2 and the speculation is good too. So basically, if that specuation could happen, and mom was the only one home at the time, do you then feel that Sergio as father would ALSO eventually be contacted?

 

[mamamia54]

It's a pretty common rumbling in Tucson and our LE and has been for some time. There seem to be two schools of thought, though... one pertains to an informant connection and not drugs directly; the other as you mention above. The first has a far higher likelihood that Isabel is alive and I personally think is closer to a possible truth.

How's that for couching my opinions... and only my opinions?!? :rocker:

YIKES & don't get me started......

 

[elmomom]

BBM

The Celis family moved into the house right after it was built. No other family has lived there.

Ahem. Not to be a naysayer and not to dispute this...... But... Personally I am currently wondering if another family, a relative and their family, a friend in need, etc, could have stayed with the Celis family for a bit. Not saying there is any reason to believe this has happened. But I can't rule out this possibility given the odd vague remarks.

 

[pieper4]

Now I'm confused again, if CPS and Sergio talked for any reason, wouldn't that be considered direct communication? sigh, I think I give up on this now, brain is wilting......

Yes, that would be direct communication in my book. I was saying that if we take the sister's comment at face value it only tells us that SC definitely has NEVER reported anything to CPS. It doesn't tell us whether he's been called ABOUT, his family has been contacted, a school or other mandatory reporter hasn't called about him/them/anyone, etc. It's a fairly useless statement, IMO.

Words can be manipulated intentionally or otherwise.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Re: The many posts about the CPS visit. I said this on a previous thread but will repeat myself. Whether or not the (alleged) CPS visit took place, what the circumstances might have been and concerning which youngster, and who besides the immediate family knew about the visit is none of my business. If LE eventually releases information about the (alleged) CPS contact with the Celis family if it pertains to the disappearance of Isabel, I will consider and evaluate it like the rest of my fellow sleuthers.

I've never been a nosy person who has to know everything about everybody. To this day, I don't know the details about my sister's divorce or the strange custody agreement that she and her ex had, but I figure if Sis wanted me to know, she'd tell me. I've never asked, and she doesn't tell. :moo:

 

[mamamia54]

Yes, that would be direct communication in my book. I was saying that if we take the sister's comment at face value it only tells us that SC definitely has NEVER reported anything to CPS. It doesn't tell us whether he's been called ABOUT, his family has been contacted, a school or other mandatory reporter hasn't called about him/them/anyone, etc. It's a fairly useless statement, IMO.

Words can be manipulated intentionally or otherwise.

It ends up being only semantics.

 

[Mjskit]

More fun with words and their usage. "Sergio has never directly communicated with CPS before last Thursday"... if true, that tells us only ONE thing. Sergio never reported anyone to CPS. And that's the sum total.

Of course, his sister may be mistaken, skewing the facts or simply unclear on the facts.

:le sigh:

Not really. The persons name who makes a CPS report is confidential. After the initial contact with the accused and the family is made aware of the allegations the reporters name leaves the file (in my state).

I think it means that Sergio was never contacted by CPS prior to this month. Also since LE said the CPS visit at their current address did NOT involve Isabel, then it did not involve SC, RC, or the 2 boys either. Soooo, either someoneelse was living with them OR they did not live there in December.

 

[carole]

Ahem. Not to be a naysayer and not to dispute this...... But... Personally I am currently wondering if another family, a relative and their family, a friend in need, etc, could have stayed with the Celis family for a bit. Not saying there is any reason to believe this has happened. But I can't rule out this possibility given the odd vague remarks.

My comment - The Celis family moved into the house right after it was built. No other family has lived there - is meant to convey the fact that the Celis family is the only official occupant of the home since it was built. Meaning they have the mortgage and pay the bills. They are the family of legal record.

Of course, there could have been friends or family staying with them from time to time.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Ok, let me go with this one, if Becky called CPS or say a neighbor called CPS and if it was about Sergio, and they didn't want him to be aware that he may have been the reason for that call to be placed, that's another senario.

What I'm saying is, that is the Celis address, mother, father, sister, sons and animals, are all the Celis family. Give me some other reasons that CPS would have been called, and Sergio not know it.

His sister didnt say he didnt know about the incident. She said CPS did not communicate with SC until May.

IMO

 

[jennapuppy]

Now I'm confused again, if CPS and Sergio talked for any reason, wouldn't that be considered direct communication? sigh, I think I give up on this now, brain is wilting......

When CPS makes a call to a home, is it SOP to speak to both parents? The only sensible reason I can think of for Sergio not to be directly involved with CPS during their Dec. visit would be if he weren't living in the home at the time. Even if it were a minor, unfounded complaint, it still seems careless not to take the time to speak to both parents in an effort to be as thorough as possible. IMO

 

[mamamia54]

Not really. The persons name who makes a CPS report is confidential. After the initial contact with the accused and the family is made aware of the allegations the reporters name leaves the file (in my state).

I think it means that Sergio was never contacted by CPS prior to this month. Also since LE said the CPS visit at their current address did NOT involve Isabel, then it did not involve SC, RC, or the 2 boys either. Soooo, either someoneelse was living with them OR they did not live there in December.

Mother of Mercy......flop

 

[Boodles]

The MSM article about Sergio's sister saying this has already been linked and a couple of posters were also at the vigil for Isa and heard it. Why? Has LE come out this weekend and said what she said isnt true? Until LE comes out a states it isnt true I will believe her for I have no reason not to do so.

The link to LE saying it was a minor incident has already been linked too. It was on NBC Today Show.. I believe this past Friday.

IMO

I had not seen The Today Show. So apparently "a law enforcement source" told NBC that it was a minor incident. And the other source about Sergio/CPS/December is the sister.

I thought Becky's face was interesting when Sergio said the "k" word ("kidnapped, kidnapped") at about the 1:25 mark. She's looking down and sideways. I try to convince myself that Becky's not a party to this "abduction", but, alas, she too sets off my hinky meter over the top of the scale. http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/47473660#47473660

But you all have probably hashed this out already!

I have given up trying to figure out what happened that night. I have no doubt that both Becky and Sergio are involved and responsible (perhaps one more than the other, but both are in deep). I don't think they thought this would become such a huge media story, but I do think they were prepared for a long term "wait it out" period.

I also have a ton of confidence that LE is onto them and has a plan and is working it as best they can. Some of their moves have been outstanding. I know I can't be privy to what they know, and I'm cool with that - it's the way it has to be while they do their thing.

But I find some consolation in that I don't think Isabel is suffering in a "tortured" type of way. I believe she is alive and with someone who is caring for her or that she has been killed. I go back and forth between those 2 scenarios since the parents do not and have never acted like people whose child has been kidnapped. They have consistently, from the first day, said things and behaved in ways that were completely incompatible with that scenario. BUT, the fact that they hid out of sight for a week leaves the possibility open, in my mind, that Isa could be dead at the hands of them or someone they know, because that's when Becky said she curled up and cried. And Sergio had to tell her she "had to get up and show up" at the softball game and other public gigs. If Isa is dead, I think Becky only had that week to mourn before having to go into this act.

But I'm 50/50. No way do I buy the stranger abduction, sex predator, random type crime. If she's alive, I hope Isa's not too afraid or homesick.

I think we will all be surprised when this is solved. And I feel confident that it will be.

And that performance of Ave Maria? uke:

 

[FrayedKnot]

It ends up being only semantics.

Are you being anti-semantic?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[mamamia54]

His sister didnt say he didnt know about the incident. She said CPS did not communicate with SC until May.

IMO

That was a hypothetical, I should have stated that and got carried about with my thoughts lol, sorry.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

FWIW I just asked a close relative who is LE in AZ what the "local feeling" is for what happened to Isabel. They responded to me that their friend is a US Marshall and that "word" is that "the dad" has serious drug debt related to the cartel and that Isabel is most likely in Mexico and is dead.

Even after the cartel word being thrown around here so frequently, it really shocked me to hear that reply.

It doesnt suprise me. I have always thought if they weren't an Hispanic family the drug cartel speculation wouldnt have entered the equation.

IMO