AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #22

[GutFeeling!]

I solidly believe it's the latter; a waiting game. A combination of gut instinct bolstered by information gleaned... or interpreted. Which is why I am quick to state I could be VERY wrong.

I live here, as do many other posters here on WS. I question the fund raising for more flyers. Seriously, I have not been in a single establishment since the day the news broke that didn't have at least one flyer or poster. And I live NE of Tucson proper. Most have many variations posted prominently; even the most obscure places. I'm not sure I want to delve into the financial aspects of the fund raising, but I do sincerely believe that we do not need more flyers. We have no searches ongoing. No outside search groups have become involved that we are aware of. Do I think the entire Los Reales or other search sites were more than a perfunctory effort? No, I do not. They appear to me to be simply a required step -- crossing the T's and dotting the I's.

But I could be very wrong. I pray it's not a cold case.

Somebody from here that lives there (can't remember who) said that they were part of a search team in another county that received training and that those kind of volunteer groups were in fact searching.

The sacred grounds of native Americans (please excuse me if that is an incorrect term - if it is wrong correct me and I apologize) had to be respected etc.

I am a member of the Sheriffs Posse here and CERT, we are trained and usually search areas that are easier done on horseback for the posse and foot for CERT

Do you believe these groups are inactive because LE knows who they are looking at or because of the vastness of the land to be searched? Do you know if groups like that have ever been active? Our groups here are called out first thing for preparation and then instructions from LE or the FD.

 

[GutFeeling!]

The reality here, IMO, is that civilian searches are definitely dangerous. Today it was 110 on my patio. Which is why I headed for the mountains. I'm an avid hiker, yet about a month ago I was hiking well south of here at Picacho Peak (cooler than Tucson) and nearly succumbed to the heat... despite knowledge of the desert terrain and the fluid requirements. We don't need civilian searches.

My belief is that LE doesn't "need" searches in the desert areas. If they do, they have been remiss in not calling in the various resources available. I would like to dismiss that as a possible scenario. We have viable search resources which don't seem to have been employed.

I understand the heat and everything, we suffer that here too but when we are called out there in really hot or really cold (for Texas lol) we are cared for by the FD and are taught what to look for with heat exhaustion etc. I can't see that being a problem, we are always told to look after ourselves first - we're useless collapsed on the ground and usually that means other resources turn to us (and we don't like that lol)

Of course it may be different there - I can only speak from experience here.

 

[pieper4]

Somebody from here that lives there (can't remember who) said that they were part of a search team in another county that received training and that those kind of volunteer groups were in fact searching.

The sacred grounds of native Americans (please excuse me if that is an incorrect term - if it is wrong correct me and I apologize) had to be respected etc.

I am a member of the Sheriffs Posse here and CERT, we are trained and usually search areas that are easier done on horseback for the posse and foot for CERT

Do you believe these groups are inactive because LE knows who they are looking at or because of the vastness of the land to be searched? Do you know if groups like that have ever been active? Our groups here are called out first thing for preparation and then instructions from LE or the FD.

I have zero knowledge about any outside groups actively searching in/around Tucson. If they currently are searching, I would be gladly surprised and happy to be corrected. But I've seen/heard nothing to indicate this. I have no doubt that initially they were involved... at least some (PCSO and TPD quads).

Remember... to dump a body in the desert you have to be able to *get* there. That means tire prints at best; horse/quad tracks at the least. While one could walk far into the desert with a 44 lb child, it's not likely. IMO.

 

[GutFeeling!]

I have zero knowledge about any outside groups actively searching. If they currently are searching, I would be gladly surprised and happy to be corrected. But I've seen/heard nothing to indicate this. I have no doubt that initially they were involved... at least some (PCSO and TPD quads).

Remember... to dump a body in the desert you have to be able to *get* there. That means tire prints at best; horse/quad tracks at the least. While one could walk far into the desert with a 44 lb child, it's not likely. IMO.

If those kind of groups are searching it is usually known somehow (scanner chatter and radio) - plus there is usually stories about what they are doing which in turn promotes the volunteer organization.

I am from a town much smaller than Tuscon so it may be very different

 

[pieper4]

If those kind of groups are searching it is usually known somehow (scanner chatter and radio) - plus there is usually stories about what they are doing which in turn promotes the volunteer organization.

I am from a town much smaller than Tuscon so it may be very different

I was very relieved to read in the doc dump that LE had checked places like Redington Pass and Agua Caliente park. While both somewhat distant from the Celis home, both are remote enough and accessible enough in a car to potentially dump a body pretty much un-noticed. I agree. Scanner chatter or just word of mouth around town would get out if there were ongoing active searches.

ETA: IMO/JMO/ABC/FBI/DEA et al.

 

[GutFeeling!]

I am starting to fade here - will be up a little longer but wanted to say how much I have enjoyed the conversation and ideas and opinions tonight Has been fun Thank you

 

[pieper4]

I am starting to fade here - will be up a little longer but wanted to say how much I have enjoyed the conversation and ideas and opinions tonight Has been fun Thank you

How nice of you to say that. Thanks! I've enjoyed sharing what I know/experience as well. I'm sure all of the other locals appreciate being able to share as well. And am checking out, too. :seeya:

Maybe tomorrow we'll hear something...

 

[buggsmom]

Have a question regarding the layout of the house/yard...
Going on an abduction theory and the foot prints on the electrical box (assuming they were toe pointing to the wall - as if climbing over), how would someone with a child exit the premises? Was there an easy access gate that would show signs of opening/closing? Are there any notes in the doc dump that address this? Gates locked or unlocked, left open..etc. IIRC there is a large wooden gate (saw a video of a guy was standing next to it to show the height). TIA!
TIA

 

[white rabbit]

i don't know how to multi-quote. a few of you had issues with my posts yesterday; i'll attempt to clarify:

1. re: searching, i as a family member would first call tim miller and get his crew on board. no matter what your feeling toward his organization, they can and will get results if possible. plead to SAR teams for their assistance and hire a private investigator. IMO that's what the bringisahome fund should be used for.

2. http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/47473660#47651358
"investigators now confirm child protective services first visited the celis home back in december, though a law enforcement source tells nbc news the incident was minor, and did not involve isabel ."...trusted source or not, it was said. SC's sister further stated he had never spoken to CPS. maybe she was lying?

3. i cannot find one 'source' that says any RSO's or extended family member have been ruled out. as of this past thursday, "Police said no suspects have been named, but no one has been ruled out."
"They haven't eliminated anyone saying family, friends or strangers could be involved."
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/18670073/10000-added-to-isabel-celis-reward
http://www.kvoa.com/full-coverage/finding-isabel/

ok i think that was all. lol. i'll see if i missed anyone...sorry!

 

[white rabbit]

the latest...

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...cle_786cc5e7-0769-5cbb-8aff-79fe948acd44.html

with no major breaks or developments in the case, several volunteers continue to make it their mission to remind the community that Isabel is still missing.

A small group of rotating volunteers, some family friends, neighbors and strangers, show up at the new command center, a small building at Abbie Loveland Tuller School, just south of Park Place Mall, to work on ways to keep Isabel's image in public view. They post fliers in neighborhoods, work on brightly colored door hangers and plan upcoming events.

Volunteers and Isabel's mom, Becky Celis, will man a booth at tonight's TMC Meet Me Downtown 5K Night Run/Walk to give out fliers and other items with Isabel's information and to collect donations.

A car wash is planned for the following weekend. And, in the next few weeks, Isabel's photo will be on six bus benches and several signs at bus stops throughout the city.

"People will see her face, and if they see her or if they have seen something of her, then that will bring in a tip that will bring her home," Celis said Friday while helping volunteers. "If nobody knows what she looks like, then how are they going to know when they see her? They won't know."

 

[TxLady2]

Just need to preface this with the statement that I don't mean for this to come off as snarky.

I am new to missing persons and crime cases in general (and WS), but I do not believe or expect to find inside info here (yes, I read the word "often" so not necessarily disagreeing with you there). I agree WS is a great place to get updated info on a case, but I also believe that it's a great place to hear others' input/speculation to possibly put pieces together. Piecing together what is known to the public adds a fresh set of eyes (so to speak), which can help lead to new tips and hopefully a possible break in the case. Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought that's what WS was about? It's not about trying to solve a case before LE does, but to maybe, just maybe, put a few things together that LE might not have noticed or overlooked in order to provide a tip that might help solve a case. At least that's how I see WS...BWDIK?

You're right. A lot of these cases are solved through tips to LE that lead to new information. Sometimes one tip can lead to another tip which leads to another and so on, and eventually it's solved. Somtimes bodies are found by some hunter or hiker who just stumbles across it, but occasionally some organization like TES does find missing people. Sometimes they luck out and find a live person.
IMO, I don't think anyone here, unless they are LE or a PI, can come up with anything that LE hasn't already thought of, but you never know. However, a tip should have some basis in fact, not just throwing out hints to LE to "look here" or "I dreamed she was in a dark place... yada yada." And definitely not trying to tell them how to go about investigating... they already know more about investigations than we do.
Really good points, though.

 

[time]

Have a question regarding the layout of the house/yard...
Going on an abduction theory and the foot prints on the electrical box (assuming they were toe pointing to the wall - as if climbing over), how would someone with a child exit the premises? Was there an easy access gate that would show signs of opening/closing? Are there any notes in the doc dump that address this? Gates locked or unlocked, left open..etc. IIRC there is a large wooden gate (saw a video of a guy was standing next to it to show the height). TIA!
TIA

I haven't seen anyone say if the simplest answer to that is possible - through the front gate, by the front door. I don't believe anyone has claimed it was locked.

Does anyone know if any surveillance cameras would have caught this?

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

This is just my impression on the possibility of a financially motivated hoax. I think we know that there were severe financial difficulties over a several year period. I have posted it before, but the Recorder's office shows that their previous home was not sold by Sergio and Becky but actually taken back by the bank after foreclosure in May 2011 and was then resold by the bank afterward. I can post those details again if anyone wants to see it...

Respectfully edited for space. Thanks for your thorough post, kat77. You've obviously given this some thought. I linked the Bring Isa Home website yesterday when the discussion centered on the "reward" fund. There is no mention of a "reward" on that site, and I'm wondering where the money for the potential "reward" is coming from?

Bring Isa Home website

A special fund has been established to assist the search for Isabel Mercedes Celis and to support the family. This money will be used to help the family in their search for their daughter and helps the volunteers to print fliers, banners and other search materials...

http://bringisahome.com/donations/

The "donations" page does not specifically mention the "reward" fund - unless you get to that when you click on how you want your donation to be used. I won't do that until I'm certain that the family has no involvement in or knowledge of Isabel's disappearance.

DH and I have made generous donations to several missing children's funds and/or honoring missing/murdered children. That said, we will not make a donation to the Bring Isa Home fund unless/until the parents are cleared. :moo:

 

[Madeleine74]

If I were in the Tucson area I think I'd want to join a few other folks and arrange an informal meeting with TPD and ask them where the public and volunteers could best assist them at this point, 6 or 7 weeks in. Do they need help on any specific searches? Do they need people to distribute Isa's picture/info outside of AZ and in any specific states? It seems like this would be a good case for Tim Miller/TES. Is that a resource LE would be willing to work with? Would the parents be open to that? Does the reward $$ need to be higher to shake something loose?

 

[Knox]

Respectfully BBM

That's the direction I'm leaning at this point. In the Sierra Lamar case LE had the suspect/POI on surveillance for approx. 2 months but didn't make the arrest until recently.

As a local, do you know if the lack of searches and requests for no volunteer searchers is mainly due to the climate? I've been to AZ before and know how hot it can get, so I was wondering if that has more to do with the lack of searches?

ETA: As opposed to possible info/evidence they may have that might keep them from requesting/allowing volunteer searchers?

Jumping off your mention of Sierra Lamar's case Stash777.

I saw the snippet below this morning and thought I would bring it here, as some posters were discussing the visibility of the Celis family and the search center.

The LaMar family has made it a goal to attend as many of these rallies as they can.

They say it's important to boost the spirits for everyone involved.

"Keep a presence around people who are helping us," said Steve Lamar, Sierra's father. "That motivates them and helps them. Helps inspire them if we stay upbeat and visible."

Another search for Sierra LaMar will start at 8 a.m. Saturday morning at the Sierra LaMar Search Center in Morgan Hill.
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Sierra-LaMars-Family-Friends-Maintain-Hope-156603455.html

 

[time]

Respectfully edited for space. Thanks for your thorough post, kat77. You've obviously given this some thought. I linked the Bring Isa Home website yesterday when the discussion centered on the "reward" fund. There is no mention of a "reward" on that site, and I'm wondering where the money for the potential "reward" is coming from?

Bring Isa Home website

A special fund has been established to assist the search for Isabel Mercedes Celis and to support the family. This money will be used to help the family in their search for their daughter and helps the volunteers to print fliers, banners and other search materials...

http://bringisahome.com/donations/

The "donations" page does not specifically mention the "reward" fund - unless you get to that when you click on how you want your donation to be used. I won't do that until I'm certain that the family has no involvement in or knowledge of Isabel's disappearance.

DH and I have made generous donations to several missing children's funds and/or honoring missing/murdered children. That said, we will not make a donation to the Bring Isa Home fund unless/until the parents are cleared. :moo:

I agree wholeheartedly.

At this point, the Celis' would do themselves a big favor to review the transparency and accountability of any fund. They should tell the public how much has been collected and where it has already been spent and how much in in the kitty (if any).

In addition, since it has gone on this long and so many flyers and such are up, they should strictly define where the current and future money collected will be spent based on what is needed. I had also read before where a lot of the flyer printing had been donated by local businesses. The mobile billboards were donated, I believe.

They should also identify who is in charge of accountability and preferably there are one or two outside individuals at least assigned for oversight. When you can claim the entire world is praying for your daughter, you should take the fund accountability very seriously. This is potentially not a small operation (under $2-3k) and it is apparently ongoing.

I would not donate to the fund even if the parents were cleared without this accountability.

They do not have to appear in public to do any of this, but it is something that could easily be done in a fairly short amount of time to restore or maintain confidence in accepting donations.

 

[SmoothOperator]

the latest...

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...cle_786cc5e7-0769-5cbb-8aff-79fe948acd44.html

with no major breaks or developments in the case, several volunteers continue to make it their mission to remind the community that Isabel is still missing.

A small group of rotating volunteers, some family friends, neighbors and strangers, show up at the new command center, a small building at Abbie Loveland Tuller School, just south of Park Place Mall, to work on ways to keep Isabel's image in public view. They post fliers in neighborhoods, work on brightly colored door hangers and plan upcoming events.

Volunteers and Isabel's mom, Becky Celis, will man a booth at tonight's TMC Meet Me Downtown 5K Night Run/Walk to give out fliers and other items with Isabel's information and to collect donations.

A car wash is planned for the following weekend. And, in the next few weeks, Isabel's photo will be on six bus benches and several signs at bus stops throughout the city.

"People will see her face, and if they see her or if they have seen something of her, then that will bring in a tip that will bring her home," Celis said Friday while helping volunteers. "If nobody knows what she looks like, then how are they going to know when they see her? They won't know."

Glad to see that for those who are solely dependant upon msm articles can see Becky Celis has continued to be involved with the volunteer center and keeping Isa's face out there..IMO this has got to be an avenue that allows her to keep her sanity in being surrounded by supportive people and at the same time proactive for Isabel..

Sorry they, nor any other missing child's family owes the public documentation where every penny goes.. if you're concerned about where its being spent do not give. Its a simple as that but this family.. nor any other owe the public squat for answers regarding this issue.. ..IMO its just another way to complain and IMO have at it.. anyone can wish and wish and wish but the bottom line is that they owe us nothing..

 

[Lark2]

Glad to see that for those who are solely dependant upon msm articles can see Becky Celis has continued to be involved with the volunteer center and keeping Isa's face out there..IMO this has got to be an avenue that allows her to keep her sanity in being surrounded by supportive people and at the same time proactive for Isabel..

Sorry they, nor any other missing child's family owes the public documentation where every penny goes.. if you're concerned about where its being spent do not give. Its a simple as that but this family.. nor any other owe the public squat for answers regarding this issue.. ..IMO its just another way to complain and IMO have at it.. anyone can wish and wish and wish but the bottom line is that they owe us nothing..

They may not owe anyone an accounting of their fundraising dollars, but my opinion is that if the Celis family had anything at all to do with Isabel's disappearance, then they owe the state of Arizona more than $1 million.

 

[GutFeeling!]

They may not owe anyone an accounting of their fundraising dollars, but my opinion is that if the Celis family had anything at all to do with Isabel's disappearance, then they owe the state of Arizona more than $1 million.

Do you think they do Lark?

 

[GutFeeling!]

Glad to see that for those who are solely dependant upon msm articles can see Becky Celis has continued to be involved with the volunteer center and keeping Isa's face out there..IMO this has got to be an avenue that allows her to keep her sanity in being surrounded by supportive people and at the same time proactive for Isabel..

Sorry they, nor any other missing child's family owes the public documentation where every penny goes.. if you're concerned about where its being spent do not give. Its a simple as that but this family.. nor any other owe the public squat for answers regarding this issue.. ..IMO its just another way to complain and IMO have at it.. anyone can wish and wish and wish but the bottom line is that they owe us nothing..

I agree with you for the most part. This same issue was raised in the Koenig case and we know the accusations flying around there.

If donated money is being used for living expenses I can't see an issue with that. When it was mentioned here that one of them had mentioned going back to work a lot were jumping up and down wondering how anyone could do that with a daughter missing - reality is, the rest of the family do have to survive.

Even if someone in that family is responsible that doesn't make the other three responsible - that said, if I were running the donations, I may not necessarily tell everyone where the money was going (because I really hope I would be too busy being involved to do so) but I would ask for bills to be given to me and organize for them to be taken care of.

There are also other ways to donate - a Walmart card sent to the house would help with food and limit them to what they could use it for, you can organize to have flyers printed with a local printer and ask a volunteer to collect them - just takes a little imagination

My concern is when I see a parent after the child has been found driving a brand new top of the line car around town ....