AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #23

[oceanblueeyes]

Nonfamily Abducted Children: National Estimates and Characteristics
Department of Justice, 2002

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...dkL-4z&sig=AHIEtbRSbymfZoKdKnLtE2ev-N7lLzjx3g


Not sure if this has been linked or talked about here. If you don't put any stock in statistics, then just pass on by.

Nonfamiy Abductions (the larger n study)- refers to being abducted by a slight stranger, slight or long term acquaintance, neighbor, authority figure, friend, caretaker, and anyone else not family.

Stereotypical Kidnappings (smaller n data from LE included within Nonfamily Abductions and reported separately in the report) - refers to "abductions perpetrated by a stranger or slight acquaintance and involving a child who was transported 50 or more miles, detained overnight, held for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed."

Unfortunately, statistics say in the large study here that only about 5% of nonfamily abductions occur from their own home or yard (16% of Stereotypical kidnappings occur from their own home or yard). About 37% of nonfamily abductions are committed by actual strangers (71% of Stereotypical kidnappings strangers - 29% slight acquaintance).

I guess the attack on the three other young girls ten miles away in their own home actually becomes more important because of it's rarity if committed by a complete stranger in their home also and since it was fairly close in time to Isabel's disappearance. Going against that is that none of the girls were abducted - although I think the guy was interrupted wasn't he?

I'm not sure what to research to find out the stats on how many kids are molested by a stranger in their own home (due to home invasion).

I find statistics interesting but in the back of my mind I do know they are highly flawed and very deceptive.

I actually believe the abductions by strangers are even higher than the DOJ would have society believe. The DOJ runs on the premise of "knowns" in order to gather statistics. In other words cases where there was a resolution such as the child being taken by one parent from a rightful custodial parent and returned safely, etc.

The glaring problem with any statistic is so many cases are still unresolved and whereabouts of the missing minor nor the prepretrator (if one) is known.

Imo, some minors are 'assumed' to be runaways even when in truth they may have been abducted by a stranger and possibly raped, killed, and their bodies never found. It also seems if LE thinks the minor ran away then they will not investigate those cases as thoroughly as it should be.

But literally thousands of minors are dropping on the face of the earth and are never heard from or seen again.

Even the statistics are incomplete by a glaring margin.

How many children are reported missing each year?

The U.S. Department of Justice reports

Nearly 800,000 children younger than 18 are missing each year, or an average of 2,185 children reported missing each day.
More than 200,000 children were were abducted by family members.
More than 58,000 children were abducted by nonfamily members.
115 children were the victims of “stereotypical” kidnapping. These crimes involve someone the child does not know or a slight acquaintance who holds the child overnight, transports the child 50 miles or more, kills the child, demands ransom, or intends to keep the child permanently.

http://www.missingkids.com/missingkids/servlet/PageServlet?LanguageCountry=en_US&PageId=2810#1

So if you take these numbers:
800,000 missing each year
200,000 abducted by family members
58,000 nonfamily members
115 sterotypical kidnappings
***********************
That leaves 542,00 missing minors unaccounted for in any category in one year here in the states. Until they can tell me where the other 542,000 are that go missing each year..... I will continue to believe the statistics fed to us are very flawed. There is no way I believe all 542,000 missing minors are runaways and never to be found ever again. I think a vast amount of those missing are victims of violent crimes and have been murdered.

We constantly read or see in the news about attempted abductions by total strangers. It seems to happen almost everyday somewhere and a pervert is trying to get a minor in their vehicle or as in the case of the three young girls coming into homes with adults present in order to molest them.

I dont think it is nearly as rare as we think about predators coming into a home to molest a child or children. I was talking to my neighbor's daughter about this case one day and I was shocked when she told me a man climbed in their daughter's window one night when the girl was nine years old and took the little girl out of the home and raped her outside... then he let her go. Her parents were asleep and didnt hear anything. They found out when their daughter walked into their bedroom crying and holding her private area and blood was running down her legs. LE caught the man a few miles up from their farm and he is in prison. The daughter is now 20 years old.

Imo, all of them doesnt fail in their attempts to kidnap minors in order to sexually molest them and then murder them. Imo, stranger abductors/rapists/murderers are getting away with it more than anyone wants to realize. They know if the child is young the family will be looked at or someone the child knew or if the minor is a teen they may be considered a runaway. Trying to link a stranger to a victim is one of the hardest cases to solve unless the stranger messes up and leaves behind evidence of himself.

But then we do know for whatever reason some of these predators either gets very lucky or makes sure they leave no DNA behind for LE to find..which has happened in the past. Unless LE gets a lucky break a lot of those cases will continue to go unsolved.

Speaking of statistics if one goes by them then only about 400 bio parents a year murder their children. That is a teenie tiny percentage compared to the huge amount of missing minors that go missing every year and are never accounted for. So what happened to the thousands/millions of other missing minors that have never been found or heard from again?

IMO

 

[Aura]

Theory only----

I have never seen a case like this. Remember the police took the family BACK into the home, one by one to question them? Maybe LE and CS think that the boys were being "coached" by a certain someone. And that if they gave them time and space-someones story would change?

just a thought...

I thought this... the only thing though, I wouldnt think CPS would have the authority to take the kids away from SC on just a thought of this. I dont know, maybe they would. But I think it is such a serious thing for CPS to take away all means of communication from SC after having his daughter kidnapped. It is just too serious to me and they have to have a major, serious reason to do this.

 

[eileenhawkeye]

I find statistics interesting but in the back of my mind I do know they are highly flawed and very deceptive.

I actually believe the abductions by strangers are even higher than the DOJ would have society believe. The DOJ runs on the premise of "knowns" in order to gather statistics. In other words cases where there was a resolution such as the child being taken by one parent from a rightful custodial parent and returned safely, etc.

The glaring problem with any statistic is so many cases are still unresolved and whereabouts of the missing minor nor the prepretrator (if one) is known.

Imo, some minors are 'assumed' to be runaways even when in truth they may have been abducted by a stranger and possibly raped, killed, and their bodies never found. It also seems if LE thinks the minor ran away then they will not investigate those cases as thoroughly as it should be.

But literally thousands of minors are dropping on the face of the earth and are never heard from or seen again.

Even the statistics are incomplete by a glaring margin.

How many children are reported missing each year?

The U.S. Department of Justice reports

Nearly 800,000 children younger than 18 are missing each year, or an average of 2,185 children reported missing each day.
More than 200,000 children were were abducted by family members.
More than 58,000 children were abducted by nonfamily members.
115 children were the victims of “stereotypical” kidnapping. These crimes involve someone the child does not know or a slight acquaintance who holds the child overnight, transports the child 50 miles or more, kills the child, demands ransom, or intends to keep the child permanently.

http://www.missingkids.com/missingkids/servlet/PageServlet?LanguageCountry=en_US&PageId=2810#1

So if you take these numbers:
800,000 missing each year
200,000 abducted by family members
58,000 nonfamily members
115 sterotypical kidnappings
***********************
That leaves 542,00 missing minors unaccounted for in any category in one year here in the states. Until they can tell me where the other 542,000 are that go missing each year..... I will continue to believe the statistics fed to us are very flawed. There is no way I believe all 542,000 missing minors are runaways and never to be found ever again. I think a vast amount of those missing are victims of violent crimes and have been murdered.

We constantly read or see in the news about attempted abductions by total strangers. It seems to happen almost everyday somewhere and a pervert is trying to get a minor in their vehicle or as in the case of the three young girls coming into homes with adults present in order to molest them.

I dont think it is nearly as rare as we think about predators coming into a home to molest a child or children. I was talking to my neighbor's daughter about this case one day and I was shocked when she told me a man climbed in their daughter's window one night when the girl was nine years old and took the little girl out of the home and raped her outside... then he let her go. Her parents were asleep and didnt hear anything. They found out when their daughter walked into their bedroom crying and holding her private area and blood was running down her legs. LE caught the man a few miles up from their farm and he is in prison. The daughter is now 20 years old.

Imo, all of them doesnt fail in their attempts to kidnap minors in order to sexually molest them and then murder them. Imo, stranger abductors/rapists/murderers are getting away with it more than anyone wants to realize. They know if the child is young the family will be looked at or someone the child knew or if the minor is a teen they may be considered a runaway. Trying to link a stranger to a victim is one of the hardest cases to solve unless the stranger messes up and leaves behind evidence of himself.

But then we do know for whatever reason some of these predators either gets very lucky or makes sure they leave no DNA behind for LE to find..which has happened in the past. Unless LE gets a lucky break a lot of those cases will continue to go unsolved.

Speaking of statistics if one goes by them then only about 400 bio parents a year murder their children. That is a teenie tiny percentage compared to the huge amount of missing minors that go missing every year and are never accounted for. So what happened to the thousands/millions of other missing minors that have never been found or heard from again?

IMO

I think the 542,000 victims are all found alive, shortly after being reported missing. Or do you think there are 542,000 children murdered every year? Because statistic say that there are 20,000 murders (of children and adults) a year, so that would be a huge coverup.

Also, Kyron's case is classified as a stereotypical kidnapping even though it's unsolved and his stepmother is generally accepted as being involved.

ETA: I don't understand why you accept the statistic that 400 parents murder their children every year, but are skeptical that only 115 children are kidnapped by strangers every year. It seems that you're accepting certain statistics, while throwing out others....

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Theory only----

I have never seen a case like this. Remember the police took the family BACK into the home, one by one to question them? Maybe LE and CS think that the boys were being "coached" by a certain someone. And that if they gave them time and space-someones story would change?

just a thought...

That really isnt unusual. When Jessica Lunsford was missing LE brought the Lunsford grandparents back again to the home to go through what happened that night into the next morning when they found Jessica missing.

LE wants to make sure the family didnt forget something that could be sugnificant. Sergio and Becky could have legally refused the police's request to speak to their minor son alone but they didnt. That shows me neither one of the parents has anything to hide.

If LE found out that either parent was trying to tamper with a witness they would have arrested them and that is a felony.

I dont think bringing them back is the correct wordage as if they 'had to' return. The house had been released at that time and the Celis family werent under any obligation to speak to LE. Imo, all three of them agreed to go back to the home to meet with LE. But then LE has always said that the Celis family has been fully cooperative throughout.

I really dont have any idea what the agreement entails between CPS and Sergio and I will not try to guess.

But I will say this if it was something of a criminal nature then the police would have gotten involved and CV clearly said it was not a matter between Sergio and TPD but between him and CPS.

LE had to know Sergio was right up at the fence during the vigil yet nothing happened to Sergio and his son was close by so I think whatever the reason is it is something we normally dont hear about.

IMO

 

[GutFeeling!]

You have had personal experience with CPS, so may I ask you, in your opinion, just opinion, would LE have contacted CPS over something like Sergio seeming overwhelmed or depressed?

And if that HAD been the reason for the initial call to CPS, would CPS "suggest" the separation of Sergio from the boys for reasons such as those, or would they have thanked LE for their concern, and left the family intact?

I know every case is different, but it just really doesn't seem likely that Sergio would have been separated from those boys if there weren't something more serious at play, here?

So what's yer gut, Gut?

I spoke to my grandsons case worker about this and ahe said yes they would given the circumstances at the time. The parent doesn't have to pose a direct threat as such - meaning they don't need to think that the boys were in any immediate direct harm from their father.

So I understood that to mean that if that depression may cause extra stress on the boys that he should stay away and get the help.

I think it really is case by case and this would not be the norm for depression but given that Isa was missing etc.

My grandson's mother I would not have considered a direct threat to him. He was never abused, always clean and well dressed, never turned up with bruises or anything, and to be honest I never ever imagined drugs. This was not your usual addict looking person. That said, the problems became worse and eventually led to loss of custody. Not because she had failed the drug things. the thirty days gave my son time to get a lawyer and CP kind of helped him through that part. They did numerous checks on me (I was caring for him during the day) including drug tests, checked the fridge etc - just so their paperwork was in order (ther were complaints made about me - naturally all unfounded)


My gutfeeling is the logistics of the separation. We know there were blood tests taken 12 days prior to the kids removal. I don't think blood tests were all that were taken, I believe assessments were done and that is where the mental issues may have come in to play. It was enough time for the tests to come back and medical discussions to have taken place with different professionals - LE were told of the outcome, it was out of their realm so they called CPS - jmo though.

 

[Prof]

Ocean, I think it is important to consider that report was from 10 years ago. JMO

 

[Prof]

For the record, the family has stated that they do NOT have a lawyer, and they see no need for a lawyer. None of the MSM reports show that the family has retained a lawyer, and LE has mentioned time and time again that the family is fully cooperating with LE. To state in a post that SC probably was advised by his lawyer is suggesting that SC has a lawyer and that lawyer probably gave him advice to cooperate. This IMO is simply not grounded in the reality of this case. To suggest that he has a lawyer is not backed up by MSM. JMO

As far as the argument that if CPS goes to court all of the "ugly details" come out? I don't know about other places, but in most states in this country family court cases (which include CPS inolvement) involve minors are not of public record,
as far as I have ever seen in any court's documents.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I think the 542,000 victims are all found alive, shortly after being reported missing. Or do you think there are 542,000 children murdered every year? Because statistic say that there are 20,000 murders (of children and adults) a year, so that would be a huge coverup.

Also, Kyron's case is classified as a stereotypical kidnapping even though it's unsolved and his stepmother is generally accepted as being involved.

ETA: I don't understand why you accept the statistic that 400 parents murder their children every year, but are skeptical that only 115 children are kidnapped by strangers every year. It seems that you're accepting certain statistics, while throwing out others....

Oh no, I dont think 542,000 were murdered. Sorry if I gave that impression, but what is unknown is how many were murdered and by whom and it is logical to me that some have been murdered. Even if 10% of the 542,000 were abducted and murdered by a stranger that is an astronomical number and vastly different from what the stats state.

I dont accept the 400 murdered each year either. I think more parents kill their children than the 400 listed as happening each year. If you noticed I said for those who believes in statistics. I am not one of them and I use to be when I first started delving into true crime but then I began to read so many articles about how grossly flawed statistics are.

There are many articles on the net that explains why statistics are really useless.

The 542,000 missing minors are those where they do not know which statistical category they fall in. They break down the ones they do know. In the categories listed in the link I provided is when they knew who took the child or children. That is how they are able to break down the abduction categories.

imo

 

[eileenhawkeye]

Oh no, I dont think 542,000 were murdered. Sorry if I gave that impression, but what is unknown is how many were murdered and by whom and it is logical to me that some have been murdered. Even if 10% of the 542,000 were abducted and murdered by a stranger that is an astronomical number and vastly different from what the stats state.

I dont accept the 400 murdered each year either. I think more parents kill their children than the 400 listed as happening each year. If you noticed I said for those who believes in statistics. I am not one of them and I use to be when I first started delving into true crime but then I began to read so many articles about how grossly flawed statistics are.

There are many articles on the net that explains why statistics are really useless.

The 542,000 missing minors are those where they do not know which statistical category they fall in. They break down the ones they do know. In the categories listed in the link I provided is when they knew who took the child or children. That is how they are able to break down the abduction categories.

imo

I'm pretty sure those 542,000 children were all found alive shortly after being reported missing. If they were still missing or found murdered, they would've been classified as a stereotypical kidnapping, a family abduction, or a non-family abduction.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Ocean, I think it is important to consider that report was from 10 years ago. JMO

I did look for a more recent report but even the ones written later are using the figures of 800,000 and in one article I read in 2011 it stated 900,000 missing children.

Or one missing every 40 seconds.

IMO

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I'm pretty sure those 542,000 children were all found alive shortly after being reported missing. If they were still missing or found murdered, they would've been classified as a stereotypical kidnapping, a family abduction, or a non-family abduction.

So are you saying that all the 800 thousand children that go missing every year have been found and no child is still missing and LE knows who the perp is?

How could they classify them in a particular category when LE does not know what happened to them or who the perp is?

I have read that only around 64% of cases are ever solved. How can an unknown become a known so it can be added to the statistical base?

IMO

 

[eileenhawkeye]

So are you saying that all the 800 thousand children that go missing every year have been found and no child is still missing and LE knows who the perp is?

How could they classify them in a particular category when LE does not know what happened to them or who the perp is?

I have read that only around 64% of cases are ever solved. How can an unknown become a known so it can be added to the statistical base?

IMO

No. I am saying that the 542,000 children who are not classified in any category were probably missing for a very short amount. These are the children who were playing outside, decided to go to their neighbor's house without telling Mom, who called 911, and they were then found 5 minutes later.

Even if a case isn't solved, it is still classified as either a family abduction, non-family abduction, or stranger abduction. Do you really think that Isabel, Kyron, Lisa, Haleigh, Hailey, Lindsay are not included in those numbers? Maybe LE has them in the wrong category, but they are still classified.

I have a really hard time believing there are thousands of children being abducted by strangers every year because there is zero record of this. Where are the social media pages? Where is LE speaking out? Where are the local news articles? Where are the parents? Why aren't these thousands of children (per year) listed in the NCMEC database? I would have to believe that after a child is abducted by a stranger, no one says a word about it. Not the parents. Not LE. It would be like it never happened.

 

[luvmydogs]

They do have DNA. They took the guy in the surveillance at the Circle K's DNA and fingerprints to send out for testing.

I brought up the dogs because it was another case where the dogs did not seem to make a difference to the perp.

Yeah, I don't think that AS heard the perp, and there are things that she has said and done that don't exactly make her a credible witness...sorry JMO.

Yeah, it is really difficult to be convinced in any way of any theory, since we have very little in the way of facts.

The guy in the Circle K video is actually a High School student at a local private parachoial school. Poor kid just happened to be wearing a green tank top with shorts.

 

[time]

I find statistics interesting but in the back of my mind I do know they are highly flawed and very deceptive.

I actually believe the abductions by strangers are even higher than the DOJ would have society believe. The DOJ runs on the premise of "knowns" in order to gather statistics. In other words cases where there was a resolution such as the child being taken by one parent from a rightful custodial parent and returned safely, etc.

The glaring problem with any statistic is so many cases are still unresolved and whereabouts of the missing minor nor the prepretrator (if one) is known.

Imo, some minors are 'assumed' to be runaways even when in truth they may have been abducted by a stranger and possibly raped, killed, and their bodies never found. It also seems if LE thinks the minor ran away then they will not investigate those cases as thoroughly as it should be.

But literally thousands of minors are dropping on the face of the earth and are never heard from or seen again.

Even the statistics are incomplete by a glaring margin.

How many children are reported missing each year?

The U.S. Department of Justice reports

Nearly 800,000 children younger than 18 are missing each year, or an average of 2,185 children reported missing each day.
More than 200,000 children were were abducted by family members.
More than 58,000 children were abducted by nonfamily members.
115 children were the victims of “stereotypical” kidnapping. These crimes involve someone the child does not know or a slight acquaintance who holds the child overnight, transports the child 50 miles or more, kills the child, demands ransom, or intends to keep the child permanently.

http://www.missingkids.com/missingkids/servlet/PageServlet?LanguageCountry=en_US&PageId=2810#1

So if you take these numbers:
800,000 missing each year
200,000 abducted by family members
58,000 nonfamily members
115 sterotypical kidnappings
***********************
That leaves 542,00 missing minors unaccounted for in any category in one year here in the states. Until they can tell me where the other 542,000 are that go missing each year..... I will continue to believe the statistics fed to us are very flawed. There is no way I believe all 542,000 missing minors are runaways and never to be found ever again. I think a vast amount of those missing are victims of violent crimes and have been murdered.

We constantly read or see in the news about attempted abductions by total strangers. It seems to happen almost everyday somewhere and a pervert is trying to get a minor in their vehicle or as in the case of the three young girls coming into homes with adults present in order to molest them.

I dont think it is nearly as rare as we think about predators coming into a home to molest a child or children. I was talking to my neighbor's daughter about this case one day and I was shocked when she told me a man climbed in their daughter's window one night when the girl was nine years old and took the little girl out of the home and raped her outside... then he let her go. Her parents were asleep and didnt hear anything. They found out when their daughter walked into their bedroom crying and holding her private area and blood was running down her legs. LE caught the man a few miles up from their farm and he is in prison. The daughter is now 20 years old.

Imo, all of them doesnt fail in their attempts to kidnap minors in order to sexually molest them and then murder them. Imo, stranger abductors/rapists/murderers are getting away with it more than anyone wants to realize. They know if the child is young the family will be looked at or someone the child knew or if the minor is a teen they may be considered a runaway. Trying to link a stranger to a victim is one of the hardest cases to solve unless the stranger messes up and leaves behind evidence of himself.

But then we do know for whatever reason some of these predators either gets very lucky or makes sure they leave no DNA behind for LE to find..which has happened in the past. Unless LE gets a lucky break a lot of those cases will continue to go unsolved.

Speaking of statistics if one goes by them then only about 400 bio parents a year murder their children. That is a teenie tiny percentage compared to the huge amount of missing minors that go missing every year and are never accounted for. So what happened to the thousands/millions of other missing minors that have never been found or heard from again?

IMO

Ocean, I agree with a lot of what you are saying and, unfortunately, I know far more about statistics and statistical analysis than I care too!

I wouldn't present it quite the way you do. There are problems with statistics, the old addage is that if you get a big enough sample you can prove anything! I would never overstate what they mean. People kind of think since it's math there is no room for error, bias, or interpretation. That's wrong.

However, the stats do provide some ball park figures and ideas to use in cases like this. I can't entirely fault a fairly extensive research effort when I don't have the wherewithal to provide other research and data. You always have to take into account their limitations also. To me, it's not just about the numbers - how many. I still think an absolute stranger coming into a house with adults home and abducting a child is more rare than abductions in public places (a bus stop, outside a store, walking home from school, etc.). A stranger abduction is probably more rare than one where the abductor has some familiarity with the family. And a pedophile abducting or killing a child is more rare than a pedophile who sexually molests/grooms/rapes a child. Then we have all the in between.

Some of those statistics are difficult to interpret as a whole because pre-teens and teenagers being abducted is a different animal to me than younger children. I have to agree, I don't think all those kids are runaways and I get angry when they classify that way because they are in danger either way. A runaway also might come back in a short period of time if they didn't meet some other fate. They are often lured away or when out on their own become prostitutes. It's not all black and white there are some gray areas although I do not know how off they are on counting a runway when it was an outright abduction.

I'm not saying children are not abducted by strangers. Some of what they are calling abductions, as the study said, are children who were gone x amount of hours - that was broken down.

One of my frustrations with this case is that the efforts have to be put in place immediately.

 

[time]

Ocean, I think it is important to consider that report was from 10 years ago. JMO

Yes, that has to be considered too. I did my best to find a significant study within some reasonable amount of time that fit this case so I would be ecstatic to see more posted and compared.

 

[time]

I'm glad to see this brought up for discussion as regardless of whether or not directly related to Isa's abduction.. IMO it definitely has purpose for being a topic of discussion due to age of victims, geographical location, and eerily close in time when the attacks occurred in relation to Isa's case..

Such a serious case of such an extremely brazen perp that entered into a residence with not only the homeowners present but with multiple house guests, including 3 elementary aged female children.. and actually sexually assaulted atleast 1 of those 3 children for certain(and quite possibly even more) ..yet managed to escape and most importantly has thus far managed to evade arrest ...

This sexual assault within mere hours of Isa's abduction.. this perpatrater is without a doubt a stranger, unknown to the family.. that managed to enter the home and sexually assault atleast one young girl, possibly more, as well as this unknown, stranger pedophile managed to successfully leave back out of the residence he broke into..

ALL UNBEKNOWNST TO THE ATLEAST THREE ADULTS THAT WERE FOR A FACT PRESENT IN THE HOME WHEN THE BREAK IN, ASSAULTS, AND ESCAPE FROM THE SCENE WERE ALL SUCCESSFULLY DONE WITHOUT ANY OF THEM AWAKENING OR CATCHING THE ASSAILANT DOING SO..

AND HE REMAINS AT LARGE!

Forget about the Jessica Lunsford/John Couey, Danielle VanDamm /David Westerfield examples that we all know prove that it not only can, but VERY MUCH DOES HAPPEN.. it happened right here within hours and mere miles of Isa's home and abduction.. IMO ITS VERY MUCH STILL A VIABLE, VERY POSSIBLE OPTION STILL ON THE TABLE!

Yes, that is the point. Stranger abduction or entering houses in the manner you describe is still the least likely forms of child abduction/molestation and we have two cases that could possibly be the same person, in close proximity in place and time.

 

[Prof]

The guy in the Circle K video is actually a High School student at a local private parachoial school. Poor kid just happened to be wearing a green tank top with shorts.

Is there a link, or is this a rumor or something?
Thank you, I Love my dogs. I do appreciate your input!
BTW I did assume he was probably not involved after Pima County did not arrest him.
His father is who first called. It is sad, but very little to give since no names were ever released, IMO in pursuit of such a criminal.

 

[Prof]

Yes, that has to be considered too. I did my best to find a significant study within some reasonable amount of time that fit this case so I would be ecstatic to see more posted and compared.

OMG Time, I know very well the efforts and time you put in... I did not in any way mean to slight that...
I have in earlier threads tried to find and posts the stats in this area, and I had trouble finding any recent data...
I thank you for providing that report. I was also confident that Ocean already considered the age of the report. I should have been clearer. I was simply STO...for the record, as I had not seen it qualified.
I apologize for not being clearer.
OT I am going to be on the beach tomorrow to regroup!

 

[SmoothOperator]

The guy in the Circle K video is actually a High School student at a local private parachoial school. Poor kid just happened to be wearing a green tank top with shorts.

Thank you for this info.. IMO the PCSO should have made this announcement.. i mean I get why they publicly airedthis poor young man's image on the video.. but still they never cleared him.. last heard was chief Nanos on NG stating that the father called in and identified the boy as his son.. the chief said they'd interviewed the guy and that they'd taken a buccal swab that was sent off for comparison to the DNA they had from the perp...then nothing further but silence.. atleast to us nationally we never heard another word about it leading me personally to believe the guy could have been the perp.. now hearing that he is not I feel very bad for this innocent boy whose face has been nationally broadcast in relation with a child sexual attack and it never cleared from there. .

So thank you for stating this I feel PCSO should release a statement as well.. jmo.

 

[Prof]

Yes, that is the point. Stranger abduction or entering houses in the manner you describe is still the least likely forms of child abduction/molestation and we have two cases that could possibly be the same person, in close proximity in place and time.

This is exactly why I cannot forget the three girl case.
A former FBI agent did comment in on the likelyhood of these cases being related, on some MSM show...
Local LE won't comment.