AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 3

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves
Status
Not open for further replies.
I have to make one quick comment before I leave...does anyone remember at what time in the investigation/search for Caylee (and other cases) did police start organizing searches? Like, out in the field, lines of people searching, not just LE knocking on doors. Am I wrong in thinking it's odd that the police are only asking for people to pass out fliers?

I think when a child disappears, LE will do an immediate grid search in an area approximate to the distance the child could have traveled by themselves on foot. Like Tuscon LE did with the 2 1/2 mile search. If the child isn't found in that distance, then LE assumes the child was abducted and driven somewhere so a large field search would be futile. Maybe?
 
I am watching NG and notice the families trash can is the only one that has been tagged with spray paint can anyone tell me what it said?
 
In fairness, if my child was missing, I would be so distraught that any message I would give to the press would be incoherent, disjointed, overly emotional and long winded. If my husband were to write a statement, it would be terse and to the point. Unless they have a media team assisting them in "crafting a message", I'm sure anything they say (or don't say) is going to be picked apart.

ITA!

And in today's time I wouldnt suggest any family member of a missing loved one to speak out. Times have drastically changed. At one time when the family members came forth and begged for the safe return of their loved one they were given much sympathy and support. Now in every case of this type it becomes a nightmare for the family members. Someone somewhere is going to find fault with every little thing they say or how they dressed or spoke or the words they used or what facial expressions they showed. Some will find suspicion of some sort. I cant remember many cases where it hasnt happened.

It is just not in the best interest to speak out in the media anymore, imo. This is a time when they have more on their plate than they can handle anyway and it just makes it worse knowing others are suspicious of them.

And in almost 30 years of keeping up with these cases I cant remember but one instance when the perp brought the abducted child back. Sadly if statistics are right, Isa was killed shortly after she was abducted. If they were going to bring Isa back they would have done so long before now.

So I dont fault her parents for not speaking out and I think we are going to see more family members take this route in the future. I think today some family members think if they do speak out then the case becomes more about them than their missing loved one.

IMO
 
Knowing the area, where would people go to search? You have residential areas in each direction. I guess anywhere outside of the initial 3 mile radius, but where? Ajo Way area? Further East? North is populated pretty much except some of the washes and Foothill area. West would be the city. Just trying think of where you would start. All of the vacant lots possibly.
 
No, me neither. My post referred to someone's post about the across-the-border town (from Isa's grand-dad) being corrupt.

And then I asked about photos of Isa's father...two separate topics. :)


Well, I'm concerned about human trafficking in/thru Mexico.


So you don't think the drug cartels get involved with human trafficking, or that there is no trafficking in Mexico? IRDK, but am concerned.


BBM.

I thought so, too. Prior to photos, I had envisioned him as looking more Hispanic.

His surname sounds Hispanic, altho perhaps Italian (and there's plenty of Italians with non-dark hair)...without doing any research. Not that it matters, really...

Well, I don't think the cartels are much involved in human trafficking in the states. And there seems to be a misconception. Most human trafficking in the states involves enticing or picking up teen runaways or troubled teens for purposes of prostitution, or bringing non-English speaking immigrants in for slave labor.

Going into a quiet neighborhood, staking out a small child and then breaking into her home to kidnap her and then sell her, would be too risky with not enough profit when compared with the risk, for a cartel to make that a business model.

I have heard for years about "white slavery" or some kind of child *advertiser censored* or prostitution slave trade in the states. There is virtually no viable evidence of such a thing, especially not on a larger scale.

Parents kill their kids, weirdos who get fixated on a particular child they know, may stalk and abduct them, later killing them, and more rare, sadistic pedophile killers like duncan, who usually work alone, may hunt a child who they then have "fun" with for hours or a few days, (sometimes photographing them in blind folds or handcuffs, which is why some people think there is a slave trade) before disposing of them.

But an actual business where cartels or others are hunting little kids to sell to wack jobs? I just don't believe that's why kids go missing. At least not in the U.S..
 
The problem is, no matter how many times we teach and go over "stranger-danger" with our children, when they are not in our sight, and a stranger comes along, a good percentage of the children totally forget what they were taught about "stranger-danger" especially when playing with other children. :(

That is so true. I draw back in horror when I watch one of those shows were the pretend 'pedo' easily walks away with the child ........time and time again.

However; imo, Isa was in a deep sleep and I think he gently lifted her up in his arms and she never woke up.

JMO
 
Nancy is showing a good video of the house and I think it is from KTVK. We need to find that video as it gives a good view of the house in comparison to the 2008 "google street maps".
 
Well, I don't think the cartels are much involved in human trafficking in the states. And there seems to be a misconception. Most human trafficking in the states involves enticing or picking up teen runaways or troubled teens for purposes of prostitution, or bringing non-English speaking immigrants in for slave labor.

Going into a quiet neighborhood, staking out a small child and then breaking into her home to kidnap her and then sell her, would be too risky with not enough profit when compared with the risk, for a cartel to make that a business model.

I have heard for years about "white slavery" or some kind of child *advertiser censored* or prostitution slave trade in the states. There is virtually no viable evidence of such a thing, especially not on a larger scale.

Parents kill their kids, weirdos who get fixated on a particular child they know, may stalk and abduct them, later killing them, and more rare, sadistic pedophile killers like duncan, who usually work alone, may hunt a child who they then have "fun" with for hours or a few days, (sometimes photographing them in blind folds or handcuffs, which is why some people think there is a slave trade) before disposing of them.

But an actual business where cartels or others are hunting little kids to sell to wack jobs? I just don't believe that's why kids go missing. At least not in the U.S..

I agree. This does not smell like a cartel crime to me. They usually only kidnap kids when the family has a ransom or when the family betrays them in a drug deal. I don't think any of the immediate family has any drug involvement that would warrant a kidnapping by the cartel.

I think it might have been someone watching this beautiful little girl at the park or playing in the neighborhood. Or possibly, a neighbor or coach or something like that.
 
The problem is, no matter how many times we teach and go over "stranger-danger" with our children, when they are not in our sight, and a stranger comes along, a good percentage of the children totally forget what they were taught about "stranger-danger" especially when playing with other children. :(

That is so true because with little kids they listen to the scenario you have provided (i.e. bad guy drives up and offers candy), but they lack the ability to understand the details can change but their response shouldn't (i.e. a bad guy walks up and offers to take them down the street to buy an ice cream). Obviously to us, both scenarios are dangerous, but if we (parents) haven't gone over EVERY SINGLE POSSIBLE thing that could happen, they may not understand. As they get older, they have the ability to understand more.

Now, with a kid sleeping in the dead of night, it's unlikely they'd even wake up. But if they did, they would most likely be disoriented and not understanding what was going on.
 
That is so true. I draw back in horror when I watch one of those shows were the pretend 'pedo' easily walks away with the child ........time and time again.

However; imo, Isa was in a deep sleep and I think he gently lifted her up in his arms and she never woke up.

JMO

True, but then IF he/she took Isabel back out the window, that would be a sizeable jump down UNLESS, he/she walked out the front door carrying Isabel or the back door, garage door, if there is a door to the garage from the house.
 
I do wonder if polygraphs have been given, and why LE cannot rule anyone out. Not even Mom, by this time?

ETA: In Sierra's case, while LE still does not know what happened to her, they were very quick to say that the family was cleared.
 
Nancy is showing a good video of the house and I think it is from KTVK. We need to find that video as it gives a good view of the house in comparison to the 2008 "google street maps".

When it is found pay attention to the tagged trash can . All the others are not tagged and have no paint except that one,and it made me think maybe the trash can was traded out..
 
The problem is, no matter how many times we teach and go over "stranger-danger" with our children, when they are not in our sight, and a stranger comes along, a good percentage of the children totally forget what they were taught about "stranger-danger" especially when playing with other children. :(

I know. I just watched a whole dateline special where only one child out of multiple kids, failed to approach, or even get in an ice cream truck, and/or accept ice cream from a stranger. Even the child of a police officer who drills her on safety got near enough to the truck to be dragged in.

ITA!

And in today's time I wouldnt suggest any family member of a missing loved one to speak out. Times have drastically changed. At one time when the family members came forth and begged for the safe return of their loved one they were given much sympathy and support. Now in every case of this type it becomes a nightmare for the family members. Someone somewhere is going to find fault with every little thing they say or how they dressed or spoke or the words they used or what facial expressions they showed. Some will find suspicion of some sort. I cant remember many cases where it hasnt happened.

It is just not in the best interest to speak out in the media anymore, imo. This is a time when they have more on their plate than they can handle anyway and it just makes it worse knowing others are suspicious of them.

And in almost 30 years of keeping up with these cases I cant remember but one instance when the perp brought the abducted child back. Sadly if statistics are right, Isa was killed shortly after she was abducted. If they were going to bring Isa back they would have done so long before now.

So I dont fault her parents for not speaking out and I think we are going to see more family members take this route in the future. I think today some family members think if they do speak out then the case becomes more about them than their missing loved one.

IMO

Wow. You're right and that's sad. Because maybe their pleas could help publicize the case and cause someone to remember something. But, if the risk is that a circus is created with the focus on skewering them and not finding the child, I can see why parents will start to be more reluctant.

If a post like this is too off topic, please feel free to delete...but for those of you out of state, these are the kind of headlines and local stories Arizona has that don't make the national headlines...this area is about 90 minutes north of Tucson, in the outskirts of Phoenix metro: http://www.santanvalley.com/news/ne...e=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#.T5dEnHmXMyk

Oops! I should edit my earlier post! The cartels operating in the U.S. ARE involved in one very important form of human trafficking - bringing immigrants across the border!!!!
 
Well, I don't think the cartels are much involved in human trafficking in the states. And there seems to be a misconception. Most human trafficking in the states involves enticing or picking up teen runaways or troubled teens for purposes of prostitution, or bringing non-English speaking immigrants in for slave labor.

Going into a quiet neighborhood, staking out a small child and then breaking into her home to kidnap her and then sell her, would be too risky with not enough profit when compared with the risk, for a cartel to make that a business model.

I have heard for years about "white slavery" or some kind of child *advertiser censored* or prostitution slave trade in the states. There is virtually no viable evidence of such a thing, especially not on a larger scale.

Parents kill their kids, weirdos who get fixated on a particular child they know, may stalk and abduct them, later killing them, and more rare, sadistic pedophile killers like duncan, who usually work alone, may hunt a child who they then have "fun" with for hours or a few days, (sometimes photographing them in blind folds or handcuffs, which is why some people think there is a slave trade) before disposing of them.

But an actual business where cartels or others are hunting little kids to sell to wack jobs? I just don't believe that's why kids go missing. At least not in the U.S..


With all due respect, you are completely wrong about the cartels not being involved with illegal immigration and human smuggling on the border. I lived right on the border from 9 years of age until 18...had lots of people I knew jump over to work in the US...then went home at night. For the last 20 years I've lived an hour from the border, and over the last decade or so the drug cartels absolutely took over the immigrant trails...that is the biggest reason things have gotten so crazy bad along the Arizona border....and beyond. The cartels are not in the kid smuggling business per se, but believe me when I say there are a lot of children being caught up in this mess by accompanying their parents sneaking up into the US.
 
My dog understands Swedish, FTR.

RE: The 4pm presser: Did anyone catch what was said when asked by a reporter if they thought it could be constructive for the family to speak to the media? It was a VERY strange response by the officer, IMO. He did say something to the effect that it was their call, up to them...and the weird part was something about a suspect...as if he started to say something, then stopped and again repeated that it was the family's call. If anyone else caught that, do tel


Here is a roughly edited (by me) transcript of what the reporter asked about the family not speaking to the media (they ask about this at every presser), and how the Chief responded.

Reporter: Would it be constructive if family were to speak?

Villasenor:
It’s their call
We passed along the request
We don’t want to force it
since we don’t really
Really know all suspect information
That’s something that is really going to be their decision on when or if they do it

That is it in a nutshell. The actual question and response can be found at about 4:20 on the tape here
Briefing @ 4 pm Apr. 24
 
Its pretty crazy here in Tucson, my little nieces, the same ages are this young child, live within a few blocks from the house. They are searching the landfill today which is about 6 miles away from the house.


Ill keep you all updated if we hear anything else.
 
So we will be wrapping up the last few parts of, excuse me, the search part of the investigation overnight. But we will continue to have a presence here with our command post and one of our larger vehicles for the investigative portion of this incident. We've received over 260 leads or tips that have come in and we continue to work on those with the investigators. Since we have put our the word to you about the request for information that has continued the flow of information through 88-CRIME and through the leads provided to officers that are out searching so we keep following up on those.
The FBI BAU did arrive and right now they are meeting with the commanders and lead investigators of this incident. We're giving them a very thorough briefing of ever bit of information we have so they can help us and provide some suggestions on routes that we may not have followed.
The family has still not returned to the house. We are still in contact with them, they are still cooperating with us. Those are the major developments wince last time we talked but I'll take a few questions.

Q: inaudible
A: We're police officers, we kind of reserve judgment on anything anyone tells us until we can prove it. And so we take the information then we do the best we can to verify what we're told. We make determinations on a case by case basis as to the veracity of each person's statement.
Q: Can you rule the parents out as suspects?
A: We're not ruling anybody out at this point, we're keeping a completely open mind.
Q: Do you have the numbers of officers involved at this point?

A: Well we had about 50 officers out at the landfill. We have about 20 officers here doing neighborhood searches and we'll have about that number coming in to replace them through the night. But we have dropped down dramatically from first day or so when we have about 150-200 officers. Contributions from other agencies dropped off some.
Q: Does the reduction of personnel indicate a new phase?
A: It's a transition of phases, because obviously the first part of this investigation is purely the search, the immediate search of the area trying to locate Isabel. And we will continue aspects of that. However, as time goes by and we have searched all the areas that we can think, all the areas that have been mentioned to us, then we start phasing into the investigative part if we are unsuccessful with the search part.
Q: Have you hit a wall
A: I wouldn't say that because we don't know what these leads are gonna provide us and where we're gonna go. Obviously I'm disappointed that we've haven't found her at this point, but that doesn't mean we are giving up hope and that we're not going to use all our resources that we need to try to find her and to follow up on these leads.
Q: Inaudible
A: When we get our forensic experts involved and also with the FBI and the evidence recovery team, we do take things that need forensic analysis, so yes, we do have some items that we're looking at; but right now we don't have any comment on what we're looking out or what the status of that is.
Q: What's the behavioral… protocol is there a list of where your going next?
A: Well as soon as we're done here, I'm heading over to where the briefing is occurring and I want to listen in on what's being suggested there and I'll have a better idea after that. And if it's something I can share at the next briefing which I believe will be at8:00 then we will share then. But in reality, I doubt that we'll be able to share much. I mean that doesn't make sense to have them come in and say exactly what we're going to do. There's things we'll need to follow up on.
Q: FBI Analyst numbers that are here to help you?
A: I haven't been there yet, I'm going out there next so I can't answer. We'll get that information for you.
Q: Are the chances of finding her alive with so much time having elapsed?
A: That's a common perception that as time goes on the chances lessen and there may be some validity to that but also, we have case after case where that has been disproven. We've had high profile cases in this country where an abduction has occurred and a lot of days or even months pass by and we find the individual so I'm remaining hopeful.
Q: inaudible
A: Well, an investigative process takes time. I know people are impatient, they want the story, they want the information. But we don't work on that basis. We work on the basis of following up on leads, making sure that we know what we're saying is true before we say it. We aren't going to be pushed into saying something that we can't verify. So the best response to that is we are keeping an open mind until we can absolutely say something with certainty, and then we will do so.

Q: Would it be constructive in your mind if a parent, a mother or father, some direct family were to speak?
A: You know that's their call, that's their call. We did in fact pass along that request. We're not forcing it. Since we don't know exactly the uh suspect information that's something that's really gonna be their decision when they do it, if they do it.
Q: You mentioned that neighbors that you hadn't talked to before have they been talked to?
A: We've gone back too all the sites that we haven't had contact with several times. We haven't made contact with every single one. Some of them we think are just probably vacant or empty home because of the real estate market, some of them are abandoned areas so we looked through that, but the ones that we can contact, we do. That's why we have a smaller presence here, but still a continued presence here to keep going back and try to locate those people.
Q: when will the street be opened?
A: Probably not before tomorrow at the earliest. And we'll update more as we get closer to that.
Q: Behavioral analysis unit, (inaudible)
A: That's what I'm going to go find out when I go to the briefing right now. When I requested it as I said earlier, I requested behavioral sciences unit and I was corrected and told this is an element of that: behavioral analysis. So I'm sure that their expertise is to talk about actions, and motivations of people based upon actions. But that's a laymen's interpretation on my part. I'm gonna go and find out a little bit more right after this is done.
Q: Are you still not calling this an abduction? Are you still saying...
A: We're still saying suspicious disappearance, possible abduction
Q: after all this time (inaudible)
A: We are leaving it open at this point. That's why I don't want to cut off any avenues.
Q: Are you questioning all the neighbors
A: We are continuing to go back

and re contact the houses where we have not been able to make contact. We haven't gotten 100% of that. I would place it at 90-95% of that we've done and we will continue to try and make those contacts. That's why we're keeping a smaller presence, but still a presence here. K, the next briefing will be at 8:00 tonight. Thanks again.

http://www.kvoa.com/videos/raw-tucson-police-say-search-phase-is-winding-down/
 
No, I think that's the part that bothered me too. It sounds like something that would come from a parent of a child taken years ago, not four days ago. Someone who has resigned to the fact that they are gone but are determined to not forget them...

I just took it to mean that no matter how long it takes they will never stop looking for her.

I didnt see anything odd about it though.

No matter what LE might have said trying to ease their angst...they have to know the odds arent in Isa's favor.

That is why finding Elizabeth Smart alive was such a big big story! It doesnt happen often.

imo
 
Here goes Ellie again, not able to answer a single question NG asks her, lol...not sure why she is there...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
138
Guests online
1,848
Total visitors
1,986

Forum statistics

Threads
603,691
Messages
18,160,874
Members
231,821
Latest member
Smfranklin96
Back
Top