AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 6

[insatiable]

Floor plan of house - http://www.kgun9.com/news/local/149171495.html

I think the bedroom just below the den is Isabels.

 

[dsntslp]

Well, I am out for a while.
There just aren't enough facts to work with here without speculating.
Speculation is all I have right now and if I can't 'go there' without being PC I will slip out the back door.

Taking a break.
Clean my house, work with my dogs.
Inventory gear and maybe go search for a local MP tomorrow while training.

TTYL.

 

[LisaB]

But why would Dad assume she was dead and never coming home? He would have to make a split second decision to call 911 and say it was a kidnapping.

How did he know she wasn't with a little league family or at the police station?

1. If she was with another league family or the police, they would not have waited 9 hours to return her home.

2. If she had turned up and the truth came out they could play it off as if it had all been a big misunderstanding. Of course, explaining the broken window screen would be a problem...

 

[Patty G]

If a family member is responsible for what happened to her, why would they call the police to the scene of the crime?

It happens a lot when a family member is the one responsible for the child's disappearance.

Zarah Baker
Shaniya Davis

 

[dimples37398]

I do know when I went there for the vigil the other night, there is no way in this world I myself would even want to be there after dark, let alone a little girl, so I wouldn't doubt for one second at all, with the type of people that I seen there the other night, one of those people would, for whatever reason grab her hand and just walk off.

There is a playground there, very close to where a couple of the homeless looking people were digging through the trash cans. Maybe she was at the playground and was suppose to be riding home with dad. One of those people walk over and walk off with her, either before or after her dad is gone.

 

[LisaB]

I asked the same question this morning. I don't get it either. The only thing I can think of is if he was involved with drug dealers or gangs but there has been nothing suggesting he's into any of that.

Still wondering why some suspect the uncle. :dunno:

I think it is being bandied about because a disproportionate number of WS members were molested by their own uncles. I know I never had any uncles, but my mother did, and one of them molested her. It is an unfortunate generalization, but based upon "anectdotal evidence" of our membership.

 

[AnaTeresa]

How about this: They want to know who was at that park and who may have been watching Isabel and her family?

That's what I think. There have been plenty of cases where, in the background of video or photos, you see the perp. Or people insert themselves into searches, give statements, etc. Was someone there who shouldn't have been? That's the logical place to start.

 

[gitana1]

There are a lot of things in this case that don't seem probable, Someone taking her at 6:30 in broad day light, without awaking anyone in the house, the 3 dogs. We really have very few things in this case that are definite so we are just thinking of possibilities, maybe not probable but maybe they are.

Whoa, first, we don't know what time she left that house. It could have been 3:00 a.m.. Second, someone who knows the dogs and the family well, their patterns, etc., could have pretty easily taken Isabel from the house in the early morning hours.

The thing is, predators tend to do things none of us would think possible. They take risks. Parents who have nothing in their background to suggest they are anything but a normal family, are much less likely to do something bizarre, like stage an elaborate cover-up of the fact that they left their baby at a park and no one noticed until late the next day.

One would think that if they are not actively involved in her disappearance, they would want their baby back and thus would give every bit of info to the police that they had. True info. And if they had just told the police this, surely the police would immediately publicize the fact that Isabel likely disappeared from a park, not her home. Because they would need every possible witness to come forward.

 

[Donjeta]

If someone forgets their child at a ballpark IMO it wouldn't make sense to stage a kidnapping from home:

Unless they know she is dead for sure she might be found shortly and what happens then? It's going to look mighty strange when she is found at the ball park and she says, no, I wasn't kidnapped from home, you guys never took me with you last night.

 

[jstwondering]

I guess it is possible. But it seems counterintuitive , to me. Isabel is their baby girl. I cannot see Mom just driving away late that night without checking what was up with her little girl. And it is weirder that she would drive away that night with no thought of her 6 yr old,then go to bed without thinking of her, not during the night or even early the next morning. Just seems odd to me.

I always respect your posts. In reference to the bolded (BBM) part,
I would not leave for work without looking in on my 6 year old either, so it seems odd to me, also. But I understood from the news coverage that this mom did not look in on her baby girl before she left for work, so that is who we are dealing with. I don't think it is outside the realm of this mother's normal. I'm not passing judgement, I'm just saying I think it is stated that the last time someone saw her was at 11:00 at night, so mom didn't look in on her before work, and possibly did not put her to bed, either. MHO

 

[dimples37398]

Well as dsntslp said up thread, there just aren't enough facts in this case to discuss what we do know for sure. So if we can't discuss other things that might have happened, not much really to talk about.

 

[mck16]

Is there some new fact that has emerged to give validation to any theory that puts Isa missing from the ballpark, rather than from her own bedroom in the middle of the night??

Or is this just more assumptions based on opinions? I'm going to agree with the poster upthread. If one bases a theory on assumptions on top of other assumptions, then it's probably not a good theory. Many, many things are possible but that does not make them probable.

Give it time with a few more posts and it will become a fact. This is a theory and in my opinion not a very good one. Does not even make sense. They are at a ball game for their children. How in the world does anyone think they could forget their youngest and go home and still not notice. Ridiculous. jmo

 

[cluciano63]

I can't recall a case with so many press conferences and so little info being released...very odd...JMO

 

[gitana1]

It happens a lot when a family member is the one responsible for the child's disappearance.

Zarah Baker
Shaniya Davis

Right. But I think the context of a cover-up scenario being discussed was an accident due to benign neglect, not actively selling one's child or abusing the child to death over a period of weeks.

 

[mck16]

That's what I think. There have been plenty of cases where, in the background of video or photos, you see the perp. Or people insert themselves into searches, give statements, etc. Was someone there who shouldn't have been? That's the logical place to start.

Especially if they recogonize a known RSO or criminal. jmo

 

[dimples37398]

I am going to take a breather as well, if we can't speculate or it isn't accepted without criticism, not much really to talk about, basically everything we are doing here is speculation to an extent. As the police have not really confirmed anything at all.

I do not find any possibility that people have thought of here as ridiculous, things happen in life and it doesn't always happen as one would think or expect it to. I appreciate everyone's input, no matter how out there some of the things we say are.

 

[LisaB]

I agree. We have two other older children in the home who would out the parents on this.

Assuming they know. They may ALSO be under the impression that the parent who drove them home did not drive Isa, that she rode with the other parent. It would not matter who got home first as the first carload would be asleep before the second carload arrived and went to their beds.

 

[katydid23]

If they thought she rode with the parent they did not ride with, they would not know. Isa could have fallen asleeo under the bleachers for all we know. Or she could have literally been kidnapped by someone who saw her on the playground alone at 10PM while her dad was cleaning up.

But if she was kidnapped at the park, why wouldn't her parents know that?

I am just using basic common sense, in saying that MOM would have been in charge of little Isabel, and dad would be in charge of the boys. Dad, being the team coach, would have his hands full that night. Imo, no way is Mom going to just drive away from the park without taking her little 6 yr old with her.

 

[katydid23]

I am going to take a breather as well, if we can't speculate or it isn't accepted without criticism, not much really to talk about, basically everything we are doing here is speculation to an extent. As the police have not really confirmed anything at all.

I do not find any possibility that people have thought of here as ridiculous, things happen in life and it doesn't always happen as one would think or expect it to. I appreciate everyone's input, no matter how out there some of the things we say are.

Criticism is part of the speculation process and the way the discussion forum works. I don't think it is personal, just people questioning various theories. imo

 

[gitana1]

Well as dsntslp said up thread, there just aren't enough facts in this case to discuss what we do know for sure. So if we can't discuss other things that might have happened, not much really to talk about.

Well that is certainly true!