cobalt sky
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We don't know, we weren't there but we've got a ton of circumstantial evidence.
You agree the morning is improbable, therefore it was more likely the evening before.
Joey's phone moved from Rancho to Fallbrook and at 5.47 pm it called Chase's phone which pinged in Rancho.
From that exact minute, not an hour later but from the end of that call, and in the next 3 hours and 44 minutes:
Chase's phone goes dark.
There are six voicemail calls to his phone from his wife starting at just after 6 pm, again after 7 pm and again after 9 pm.
Chase calls his wife back at 9.30 pm from an area one hour's drive away from Fallbrook, not south, west or east but north of Fallbrook, an hour after Joey's phone connected towers in Fallbrook for the last time ever.
A cheque was created at Joey's house to Charles Merritt, at 8 pm, in his style of creating and deleting and in the custom account only he used, which he created again with the same memo the next day, and cashed.
A truck reversed into the driveway that didn't belong to the McStays left the house (if it wasn't that one that took them then presumably another one arrived later on with the real murderer but it slipped past Mitchley's camera unnoticed), a truck the McStays most likely recognised and weren't alarmed to see in their driveway because they didn't call for help but opened their door because there was no forced entry.
The children were eating popcorn, someone dropped a bitten apple and the adults were drinking coffee.
The McStays were never heard from again.
Is it a reasonable assumption that these happenings were connected with the murders? That the defense who also wasn't there can pluck a more reasonable breakfast-time scenario out of thin air than the investigators of this crime, or any of us having seen the trial and been presented with the evidence unearthed by the investigators? Or were the children up really late and eating snacks before or after a very late supper, after those strange events and then the family was abducted alive with the sledgehammer later than the mystery truck leaving the house, by an unfilmed vehicle, by someone unconnected with the deleted cheque and Chase's unanswered phone calls?
JMO
It's a valid theory. But even in its totality, none of it absolutely connects Chase to the murders EXCEPT possibly this, snipped from your post:
"A cheque was created at Joey's house to Charles Merritt, at 8 pm, in his style of creating and deleting and in the custom account only he used, which he created again with the same memo the next day, and cashed."
To me this is the only thing on your list that could be potentially damning but again, I need to hear what the defense has to say before forming my opinion.
Also, this will be assuming that the jury accepts that the family was indeed murdered at the McStay home. If they have doubts about that, then the check creation on the evening of the 8th might not be as important to them as we think it might be.
All IMO.