Found Deceased CA - Paul Miller, 51, Canadian missing in Joshua Tree National Park, San Bernardino Co., 13 Jul 2018

[AzPistonsGirl]

I am always all about being hopeful and positive and upbeat - it's the best medicine for so many ailments IMO - but I am an experienced hiker, have certainly hiked in this general area, and have explored beyond what might be considered safe. If he were indeed lodged between some rocks and without water... well, this won't end well...

That said, so glad they are still searching because you just never know. I just commented elsewhere that real life is not always black and white... and sometimes we are wonderfully surprised.

 

[carbuff]

Fingers crossed that he's okay.

 

[Cryptic]

The Border Patrol helped in the last search in JTNP where the two hikers went missing under circumstances that are still not fully understood.

Those circumstances aside, the Border Patrol has some of the most experienced trackers in the country. A team maintained by the Tohono O Odham Indian Police (Mexican border) is also top notch.

Hopefully, the Park Service will ask for their assistance. The Border Patrol especially has agents that could be there with in hours.

 

[RickshawFan]

Though the search started soon, my bet is that such searches start small unless there are obvious indications that the hiker is in grave danger. For example, the initial search could well of consisted of a ranger driving to the trail head (takes time), then walking the trail.

Once that search yielded nothing, several rangers were probably brought in to drive the paved roads in case he was waiting there, and spot check other probable areas. The area is huge and the rangers would need to decide whether it is better to stay mobile along the roads, or conduct foot searches in smaller areas. In short, the large scale search may of started two days later.

I go hiking with my children and their friends. The youths are all athletic (running sports) and accustomed to high heat. The bad news is that they all have the physical ability to cover a lot of ground should they get lost (God forbid).

As a very rough guess, I am thinking….

A fit / acclimatized, but not an expert hiker walking with a purpose, but not speed walking can cover at most two miles every hour in flat terrain. Most lost people end up walking with a purpose. Rough, but not mountaneous terrain would reduce this to say 1.5 miles.

This pace could be kept for 3-4 hours before slowing or needing a relatively long break. The pace could then be resumed for another 3-4 hours. Any following pace would be lower.

But… the difficulty for searchers is that the area in the obtainable through the pace in square miles. Thus a possible 6 mile pace distance is 36 square miles to search. This means a lot of area.

I'm thinking he went the wrong way out of the oasis. The oasis probably has a lot of little paths all around it where people explore. He also could have fallen there. It looks kind of boulder-y.

 

[carbuff]

Just for general background

Oasis of Mara - Joshua Tree National Park (U.S. National Park Service)

 

[RickshawFan]

For awhile I was wondering about a staged disappearance, as someone else also mentioned upthread, but after reading the description, I'm thinking this is simply something he wanted to do while on vacation (I'm assuming the couple is on vacation - I don't know that for a fact).

It's possible that telling a friend that he was going on this hike was part of the staging. It seems very odd to have this hike on a bucket list, let alone scheduling it in midsummer. I wonder what his history was or if people were worried about him before he went on this trip. Could he have had bad news of some sort? Have forgotten where he was on a prior occasion (and thus his wife's almost immediate call to police)?

 

[RickshawFan]

Just for general background

Oasis of Mara - Joshua Tree National Park (U.S. National Park Service)

Apparently, this isn't any kind wild trail. It's a nature trail (usually very short), handicap accessible, smooth and graded, botanical markings as you walk along, even has a visitor center (?). Is that a boardwalk near the oasis? How could anyone possibly get lost there, or turned around?

Are we sure the Oasis of Mara is where he went?

Google photos for 29 Palms Oasis. There is a whole panel. Actually looks like a great place to hike. But...wait a minute....there's more than one oasis in those photos?

Look at this one:

(OC) Sunrise near the 29 Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park.

vs.

Historic Sites - Oasis of Mara - Twentynine Palms Historical Society

 

[Suglo]

Apparently, this isn't any kind wild trail. It's a nature trail (usually very short), handicap accessible, smooth and graded, botanical markings as you walk along, even has a visitor center (?). Is that a boardwalk near the oasis? How could anyone possibly get lost there, or turned around?

Are we sure the Oasis of Mara is where he went?

Google photos for 29 Palms Oasis. There is a whole panel. Actually looks like a great place to hike. But...wait a minute....there's more than one oasis in those photos?

He was on the 49 Palms Trail. This shows the trail and some pictures. It’s not a hard trail but it is an uphill one.

49 Palms Oasis Trail Hiking Trail, Twentynine Palms, California

 

[carbuff]

I was wondering if he could have been going to one of the other oases. There seems to be some overlap and disagreement about the names.

 

[Suglo]

I was wondering if he could have been going to one of the other oases. There seems to be some overlap and disagreement about the names.

Joshua Tree National Park FB page says his car was found at the 49 Palms Oasis trailhead and that’s where they are searching.

Joshua Tree National Park

 

[carbuff]

That seems definitive enough.

 

[whitelilac]

He was on the 49 Palms Trail. This shows the trail and some pictures. It’s not a hard trail but it is an uphill one.

49 Palms Oasis Trail Hiking Trail, Twentynine Palms, California

I haven't hiked that particular trail, but from what I see on the pictures, it's pretty dry and rocky before you reach the oasis. With that kind of terrain, even if only moderate, the heat must be exacerbated by that dryness. We don't know if he actually reached the oasis....maybe he got into trouble on the way back...maybe got lost? No empty water bottles found? Anything? This doesn't sound as though it will be a positive resolution. I hope I'm wrong.
Where was his wife....at the motel/ hotel?

 

[Hatfield]

JMO
The timeline of when he set out and the phone call is just really strange to me.

Unless they had a pre plan that if he wasnt back in 3 hours to call right away or something.

Seems like a very short time frame.

I am not sure what to think right now. Need to study this a little more.
Right now Im not fully convinced he went on the hike. If he did then I think hes in trouble. Maybe a rattlesnake bite or something. Ive seen more snakes this summer than last few years. The heat wave is making them active and look for water.

 

[Jackeee]

Delete

 

[PaulR]

JMO
The timeline of when he set out and the phone call is just really strange to me.

Unless they had a pre plan that if he wasnt back in 3 hours to call right away or something.

Seems like a very short time frame.

I am not sure what to think right now. Need to study this a little more.
Right now Im not fully convinced he went on the hike. If he did then I think hes in trouble. Maybe a rattlesnake bite or something. Ive seen more snakes this summer than last few years. The heat wave is making them active and look for water.

There are lots of ways this could go. We know the car is at the trailhead and his wife *said* he left for the hike. Could be true. Could also be a number of other things. The heat has made it difficult to search. Hopefully the police aren't just taking the circumstances for granted.

One of the people who was looking for Bill Ewasko (a pretty famous missing person in Joshua Tree) doesn't think he actually went "missing", and that he either decided to skip town or was killed; partially because they never found a trace of him and what little evidence they have (a cell phone ping) doesn't add up. But this is after years of searching.

 

[RickshawFan]

He was on the 49 Palms Trail. This shows the trail and some pictures. It’s not a hard trail but it is an uphill one.

49 Palms Oasis Trail Hiking Trail, Twentynine Palms, California

There's a 29 Palms and a 49 Palms oasis? And 49 Palms oasis is in the Town of 29 Palms? Ay yay yay.... It's going to be hard keeping that straight in my brain, not to mention this forum.

So we're not talking Oasis of Mara (aka 29 palms), it sounds like. We're talking that backcountry hike, not a nature trail at all.

Wow. From the profile graphic on the quoted post, the elevation gain is 200 feet back out of the canyon and then another 200, after 200 plus 200 on the way in. That's a lotta climbing, especially that heat. Then there's all that downhill, likely with rubble-y stuff underfoot: recipe for a skid and injury. He'd better have been wearing hiking boots....


Now that I've sorted out we're talking 49 Palms, here are a bunch more photos:

Fortynine Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park

Woah, this link has the coolest graphic. Run your mouse over the profile and it shows the corresponding trail point on the contour map.

But wait a sec..... This profile is different from the link quoted above, because it only shows one uphill and downhill in either direction, and not 2.

Another note from these photos in my link... that trail is trouble: scree under foot, lots of side trails, blank spots created by runoff, boulders and rocks underfoot. So easy to get lost or hurt.

 

[PaulR]

I didn’t hit ‘like’ because I don’t can’t understand someone staging their disappearance. However, there is so much in your post that I agree with.

Life insurance scam - there's a pretty famous case that was covered in Forensic Files where a couple digs up a body, they stage a car crash where the husband "dies", and collect the insurance money; Clayton and Molly Daniels. Then there was John and Anne Darwin in England, similar case.

 

[PaulR]

There's a 29 Palms and a 49 Palms oasis? And 49 Palms oasis is in the Town of 29 Palms? Ay yay yay.... It's going to be hard keeping that straight in my brain, not to mention this forum.

So we're not talking Oasis of Mara (aka 29 palms), it sounds like. We're talking that backcountry hike, not a nature trail at all.

Wow. From the profile graphic on the quoted post, the elevation gain is 200 feet back out of the canyon and then another 200, after 200 plus 200 on the way in. That's a lotta climbing, especially that heat. Then there's all that downhill, likely with rubble-y stuff underfoot: recipe for a skid and injury. He'd better have been wearing hiking boots....

Now that I've sorted out we're talking 49 Palms, here are a bunch more photos:

Fortynine Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park

I'll admit that I haven't hiked in the desert - not a lot of that this side of the Cascades - but that doesn't seem like a lot of altitude gain. I'm out of shape and have done that much elevation gain pretty easily in some of the local parks. Most of the popular hikes around here have much more elevation gain - Tiger Mountain has 2500' gain, Mount Si has over 3000' gain, Wallace Falls is 1300', etc. I've seen people in their 60s (and little kids) doing Tiger. Of course it's cooler and there's shade which helps a bit. And it's hard to get lost since these trails are very popular and you just have to follow the conga line back to your car.

 

[RickshawFan]

Unless they had a pre plan that if he wasnt back in 3 hours to call right away or something.

It sounded like there was a pre-plan. His wife allowed for 30 minutes after he was supposed to be back.

I wonder if he was diabetic.....

 

[ilovematt]

Thank you for your service. Now I need to know the what the 10 essentials consists of. I’m not much of a hiker but you never know.. I just hope that poor Paul is only lost, near a water source and not eaten by cayotes.