Found Deceased CA - Philip Kreycik, 37, Pleasanton Ridge Regional Park, 10 Jul 2021 #2

[Tower]

Stats are something like 50% die in the next 28 days if they do survive initially and 70% die in the next 2 years.

Thank you for your time updating this group and my deepest condolences for your loss.
No hurry at all, but would you mind sharing your sources for those terrible outcomes? I’m not finding anything useful online. As a healthcare provider, I have treated a handful of patients with heat stroke, but they have been young and treated promptly, so they made a full recovery. I would love to have some better information to educate especially my older patients.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

I would also love to know the different in dehydration and heatstroke or how they affect each other, if anyone can explain.

 

[Tower]

I would also love to know the different in dehydration and heatstroke or how they affect each other, if anyone can explain.

Warning Signs and Symptoms of Heat-Related Illness | Natural Disasters and Severe Weather | CDC
This is a resource that explains some symptoms.

Dehydration (not drinking enough water) in hot conditions can lead to heat-related illness. It can happen very fast, but younger, healthier people can typically withstand more heat without getting ill, which can sometimes be dangerous because they may try to push through and keep exercising. (This is a general statement, as I have no idea what specifically happened to our gentleman here on this thread.)

Heat stroke is an immediate medical emergency and can quickly progress to death. We have cold water baths ready, in which we immediately immerse young athletes, if they are showing signs of heat exhaustion which can progress to heat stroke.

 

[ElizabethAnne]

It is worth noting that as far as I know, there are no water fountains in Pleasanton Ridge except toward the southern end of the park. The closest one 'north' which isn't really north at all is near the transmission towers near Santos Ranch Rd.

The entire landbank area in the northern section of Pleasanton Ridge Park has been controversial. There is a trails working group and the Sierra Club has a member in that group. In the Sierra Club white paper posted on the EB Parks website https://www.ebparks.org/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?blobid=33591 it mentions the rumor that the EBRPD plans to turn over the entire Pleasanton Ridge northern section over to mountain bikes. The quote is "We assume the District has informally agreed to allow all or a portion of Crockett Hills to be a “mountain bike playground park”, but we are not aware that the implications of this decision were ever discussed with adjacent communities or the public. We have also heard rumors that the District is considering turning the North end of Pleasanton Ridge over to mountain bike use, which we of course will oppose because the ridge was acquired to preserve scenic open space features and significant natural resources to be enjoyed all residents."

Back in 2011 when the EBRPD started holding meetings about the landbank area in the northern Pleasanton Ridge, they hired Nat Lopes from Hilride who designs and builds mountain bike trails to design this section of Pleasanton Ridge trails (see p. 5 article continued on p. 8 here "Plans continue for Pleasanton Ridge-Park District releases overview after April meeting" at https://www.pleasantonweekly.com/morguepdf/2011/2011_06_10.pls.section1.pdf).

Mountain bike riders have been using this landbanked northern area of Pleasanton Ridge for years. I don't know the various ways that they get to the area, but maybe that is why there are single track trails around this landbank area where Philip was found.

Also, I don't know if they (the mountain bike people) have figured out a way to get water. There is a water tank labeled near where Philip was found on the Fire map on this part of the EBRPD website EBRPD - Maps , but I don't know where it is.

I don't know whether water could have prevented heat exhaustion/heat stroke. I don't know whether being submerged in water is necessary or whether drinking it alone will help prevent it.

What I do know is that on interstate highways or major highways, there are signs like '60 miles to next gas station.' On Pleasanton Ridge, it seems to me that there is no water except on the eastern part of the park and it is only in the southern half. Certainly it would seem with the scarcity of water in Pleasanton Ridge Regional Park, it would seem to me they really need to post signs about where the water is and how far it is away to prevent future tragedies.

 

[Curious_in_NC]

Also, I don't know if they (the mountain bike people) have figured out a way to get water. There is a water tank labeled near where Philip was found on the Fire map on this part of the EBRPD website EBRPD - Maps , but I don't know where it is.

rsbm
Mountain bikers typically pack their own water in bottles and/or backpack reservoirs like CamelBaks.

 

[ElizabethAnne]

fyi-Philip Kreycik is remembered in this article from the Harvard Crimson
Philip Kreycik ’06, Who Died at 37 After Going Missing on Run, Remembered for ‘Quiet Strength’ and ‘Adventurous Spirit’ | News | The Harvard Crimson

 

[Beekarina]

fyi-Philip Kreycik is remembered in this article from the Harvard Crimson
Philip Kreycik ’06, Who Died at 37 After Going Missing on Run, Remembered for ‘Quiet Strength’ and ‘Adventurous Spirit’ | News | The Harvard Crimson

From the article above: "he just bicycled to Mount Washington, climbed Mount Washington, and biked back to Harvard in one day.”"

Being local to this area, to me this is just nuts, and it is an example why I was so flummoxed by his being incapacitated on the short run out in Pleasanton. Poor guy, but what cool things he did.....

 

[avalonisland]

From the article above: "he just bicycled to Mount Washington, climbed Mount Washington, and biked back to Harvard in one day.”"

Being local to this area, to me this is just nuts, and it is an example why I was so flummoxed by his being incapacitated on the short run out in Pleasanton. Poor guy, but what cool things he did.....

I agree with you. Wow, amazing athlete! I am so perplexed why PK did not have water, better gps tracking or safety wifii watch device- just items I would expect someone running alone on a hot day would have with them. Unsafe running seemed to contribute to death of an experienced outdoor exerciser. So, why do runners still seem compelled to run without proper safety items and in extreme weather conditions? Makes no sense to me.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

@Beekarina and @avalonisland, I can't speak for PK, but I can share from my own experience which seems at least similar metaphorically. I surfed for 20 years. There was a saying at my home beach that a surfer always gets hurt on a small waves or close to shore. And sure enough, a concussion in the white water ended my surfing career a few years ago. Outside, where the waves are tall and sometimes treacherous, a surfer is always on guard. Super tuned in and alert. On a small day, you drop your guard. Do dumb stuff. Hit the sandy bottom hard. This isn't always true, of course. But I think of all the amazing things PK did, things he planned for and trained for, and this was just a casual run before picking up his family. A small wave day.

 

[mickey2942]

I agree with you. Wow, amazing athlete! I am so perplexed why PK did not have water, better gps tracking or safety wifii watch device- just items I would expect someone running alone on a hot day would have with them. Unsafe running seemed to contribute to death of an experienced outdoor exerciser. So, why do runners still seem compelled to run without proper safety items and in extreme weather conditions? Makes no sense to me.

I think that this summer has been deceptive. It has been hotter in the West, than it ever has been. And it can creep up on you, if you are not used to the heat this summer. Drier too. Normally, there is a cool breeze, a bit of humidity, makes a huge difference biking. But this summer, it has been an oven.

July 2021 was the world's hottest month on record | 9news.com

 

[akazia1978]

@Beekarina and @avalonisland, I can't speak for PK, but I can share from my own experience which seems at least similar metaphorically. I surfed for 20 years. There was a saying at my home beach that a surfer always gets hurt on a small waves or close to shore. And sure enough, a concussion in the white water ended my surfing career a few years ago. Outside, where the waves are tall and sometimes treacherous, a surfer is always on guard. Super tuned in and alert. On a small day, you drop your guard. Do dumb stuff. Hit the sandy bottom hard. This isn't always true, of course. But I think of all the amazing things PK did, things he planned for and trained for, and this was just a casual run before picking up his family. A small wave day.

Just like marathon swimming. I did el Cruce (Cancun to Isla Mujeres) recently and ended up a DNF due to suddenly feeling very ill and a massive cramp which almost took me under. It was only a 10k ocean swim, I got caught off guard by the cramp and was slightly dehydrated as I missed a water stop. I was lucky a kayak was near to pull me in and rehydrate as swimmers also lose water quickly in warm temps.
I recently swam Lake Tahoe which is 21.3 miles and fine, but these things happen where you may think they won't as you feel at the time you are easily able to complete something. Fortunately I survived my lesson. RIP Philip

 

[Tower]

I think that this summer has been deceptive. It has been hotter in the West, than it ever has been.

We’ve experienced this in Vegas, but with a twist. Typically it’s extremely hot and dry, or humid and slightly cooler. This year it’s been hotter than usual and a “normal” hot run can be dangerous when humidity is 4 times higher than usual. I’ve definitely been thinking of Philip often on my long runs.

 

[mickey2942]

We’ve experienced this in Vegas, but with a twist. Typically it’s extremely hot and dry, or humid and slightly cooler. This year it’s been hotter than usual and a “normal” hot run can be dangerous when humidity is 4 times higher than usual. I’ve definitely been thinking of Philip often on my long runs.

Interesting. I literally haven't even had a summer, the smoke is so thick here, running, biking, even walking outside is dangerous with the smoke level.

I wonder if there were any smoke particulates in the area he was biking?

 

[runspired]

Thank you for your time updating this group and my deepest condolences for your loss.
No hurry at all, but would you mind sharing your sources for those terrible outcomes? I’m not finding anything useful online. As a healthcare provider, I have treated a handful of patients with heat stroke, but they have been young and treated promptly, so they made a full recovery. I would love to have some better information to educate especially my older patients.

The studies that have been done primarily followed cases associated with heatstroke (not necessarily hospitalized) during the 1995 Chicago (almost a thousand incidents) and 2003 France heat waves (several thousand incidents). This means they all primarily have focused on classical heat-stroke vs exercise induced heat-stroke. It sounds like you've mostly worked with exercise induced heat-stroke, which as far as I can tell has ~5% death rate in the US: it kills you faster but is also far more survivable, likely because (1) interventions happen sooner and are more clear (more water, submersion/misting, cessation of activity, get out of the sun) and (2) the length of time overheated is far shorter. Classical (which basically means "externally induced" but which also includes side-effects of some drugs) seems harder to survive, likely because unlike exercise-induced its much harder to remove the heat source/exit the hot environment and length of time exposed to the heat tends to be much longer.

For the Chicago data I haven't found the totals that included non-hospitalized patients again (I'd read up on that larger pool study but forgot to bookmark it, 600 excess deaths were recorded for the heat-wave), but for those hospitalized (58 patients) it was basically 21% died in the hospital and another 28% died within the first year, with no patient having seen improvement in their functional status during that year. Also note the signs of infection these patients were admitted with does not necessarily indicate a pre-existing infection: heat-stroke's most deadly mechanism may actually be permeability changes leading to contents of your intestines and colon flooding the bloodstream.
- Near-fatal heat stroke during the 1995 heat wave in Chicago - PubMed

For the France study I similarly haven't found again the study that tried to look at the non-admitted data as well, but for the 345 admitted cases 62.6% died in hospital
- Mortality of patients with heatstroke admitted to intensive care units during the 2003 heat wave in France: a national multiple-center risk-factor study - PubMed

For just the town of Lyon, France there were 83 admitted cases of which 58% died in the first 28 days and 71% of which had died by 2 years, again patients showed little functional improvement over that 2 year time frame.
- Short- and long-term outcomes of heatstroke following the 2003 heat wave in Lyon, France - PubMed

Note: practices for cooling have improved and knowledge around the need to cool and cool quickly has improved since these things occurred, but I would still be surprised if for cases that did not have rapid interventions if the stats have moved much from this. From everything I've read on how heat-stroke operates, especially for classical heat-stroke (which is likely what ultimately killed Phil... a thing I'll explain at another time) if it's not treated quickly you're left in such bad shape it's unlikely you'll have much of a life if you live.

 

[Tower]

The studies that have been done primarily followed cases associated with heatstroke (not necessarily hospitalized) during the 1995 Chicago (almost a thousand incidents) and 2003 France heat waves (several thousand incidents). This means they all primarily have focused on classical heat-stroke vs exercise induced heat-stroke. It sounds like you've mostly worked with exercise induced heat-stroke, which as far as I can tell has ~5% death rate in the US: it kills you faster but is also far more survivable, likely because (1) interventions happen sooner and are more clear (more water, submersion/misting, cessation of activity, get out of the sun) and (2) the length of time overheated is far shorter. Classical (which basically means "externally induced" but which also includes side-effects of some drugs) seems harder to survive, likely because unlike exercise-induced its much harder to remove the heat source/exit the hot environment and length of time exposed to the heat tends to be much longer.

For the Chicago data I haven't found the totals that included non-hospitalized patients again (I'd read up on that larger pool study but forgot to bookmark it, 600 excess deaths were recorded for the heat-wave), but for those hospitalized (58 patients) it was basically 21% died in the hospital and another 28% died within the first year, with no patient having seen improvement in their functional status during that year. Also note the signs of infection these patients were admitted with does not necessarily indicate a pre-existing infection: heat-stroke's most deadly mechanism may actually be permeability changes leading to contents of your intestines and colon flooding the bloodstream.
- Near-fatal heat stroke during the 1995 heat wave in Chicago - PubMed

For the France study I similarly haven't found again the study that tried to look at the non-admitted data as well, but for the 345 admitted cases 62.6% died in hospital
- Mortality of patients with heatstroke admitted to intensive care units during the 2003 heat wave in France: a national multiple-center risk-factor study - PubMed

For just the town of Lyon, France there were 83 admitted cases of which 58% died in the first 28 days and 71% of which had died by 2 years, again patients showed little functional improvement over that 2 year time frame.
- Short- and long-term outcomes of heatstroke following the 2003 heat wave in Lyon, France - PubMed

Note: practices for cooling have improved and knowledge around the need to cool and cool quickly has improved since these things occurred, but I would still be surprised if for cases that did not have rapid interventions if the stats have moved much from this. From everything I've read on how heat-stroke operates, especially for classical heat-stroke (which is likely what ultimately killed Phil... a thing I'll explain at another time) if it's not treated quickly you're left in such bad shape it's unlikely you'll have much of a life if you live.

Thank you, you’re amazing. I really appreciate this.

 

[terracotta1982]

The studies that have been done primarily followed cases associated with heatstroke (not necessarily hospitalized) during the 1995 Chicago (almost a thousand incidents) and 2003 France heat waves (several thousand incidents). This means they all primarily have focused on classical heat-stroke vs exercise induced heat-stroke. It sounds like you've mostly worked with exercise induced heat-stroke, which as far as I can tell has ~5% death rate in the US: it kills you faster but is also far more survivable, likely because (1) interventions happen sooner and are more clear (more water, submersion/misting, cessation of activity, get out of the sun) and (2) the length of time overheated is far shorter. Classical (which basically means "externally induced" but which also includes side-effects of some drugs) seems harder to survive, likely because unlike exercise-induced its much harder to remove the heat source/exit the hot environment and length of time exposed to the heat tends to be much longer.

For the Chicago data I haven't found the totals that included non-hospitalized patients again (I'd read up on that larger pool study but forgot to bookmark it, 600 excess deaths were recorded for the heat-wave), but for those hospitalized (58 patients) it was basically 21% died in the hospital and another 28% died within the first year, with no patient having seen improvement in their functional status during that year. Also note the signs of infection these patients were admitted with does not necessarily indicate a pre-existing infection: heat-stroke's most deadly mechanism may actually be permeability changes leading to contents of your intestines and colon flooding the bloodstream.
- Near-fatal heat stroke during the 1995 heat wave in Chicago - PubMed

For the France study I similarly haven't found again the study that tried to look at the non-admitted data as well, but for the 345 admitted cases 62.6% died in hospital
- Mortality of patients with heatstroke admitted to intensive care units during the 2003 heat wave in France: a national multiple-center risk-factor study - PubMed

For just the town of Lyon, France there were 83 admitted cases of which 58% died in the first 28 days and 71% of which had died by 2 years, again patients showed little functional improvement over that 2 year time frame.
- Short- and long-term outcomes of heatstroke following the 2003 heat wave in Lyon, France - PubMed

Note: practices for cooling have improved and knowledge around the need to cool and cool quickly has improved since these things occurred, but I would still be surprised if for cases that did not have rapid interventions if the stats have moved much from this. From everything I've read on how heat-stroke operates, especially for classical heat-stroke (which is likely what ultimately killed Phil... a thing I'll explain at another time) if it's not treated quickly you're left in such bad shape it's unlikely you'll have much of a life if you live.

Can you provide a source that states "Exercise induced heat-stroke...has ~5% death rate in the US"? This is more relevant to Phil's instance. Thank you in advance

 

[Elana619]

I do, it’s a detail I’d rather not discuss currently. Suffice it to say as I’ve strongly hinted multiple times he was not found on a game trail.

I’d assume the red flags are route markers like what you use to mark a route on a trail race. Otherwise it would be to mark a gas line or something which I assume law enforcement would know. So if they didn’t it makes me think route markers, IMO. My thoughts are since that area has projected trails that those flags are there to mark possible trails and/or he knew what they were there for and got off track thinking he was on a different route.

 

[scriabina]

Can you provide a source that states "Exercise induced heat-stroke...has ~5% death rate in the US"? This is more relevant to Phil's instance. Thank you in advance

Not sure if you can access this link without a subscription, but according to Medscape, the mortality rate is even higher:

"Morbidity and mortality from heat stroke are related to the duration of the temperature elevation. When therapy is delayed, the mortality rate may be as high as 80%; however, with early diagnosis and immediate cooling, the mortality rate can be reduced to 10%. Mortality is highest among the elderly population, patients with preexisting disease, those confined to a bed, and those who are socially isolated."

 

[Curious_in_NC]

Here's a couple of more sources on exercise induced heat stroke that can be accessed. There really aren't a lot of statistics comparable to Philip's case. Most case studies find a general lack of fitness or training were key factors, as opposed to someone with excellent fitness but limited acclimatization. At any event with athletes of comparable fitness, such as marathons, there's usually medical professionals prepared to recognize and treat EHS.

Exertional Heat Stroke in Competitive Athletes : Current Sports Medicine Reports

https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.n...gE47R5vesQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA

 

[terracotta1982]

Not sure if you can access this link without a subscription, but according to Medscape, the mortality rate is even higher:

"Morbidity and mortality from heat stroke are related to the duration of the temperature elevation. When therapy is delayed, the mortality rate may be as high as 80%; however, with early diagnosis and immediate cooling, the mortality rate can be reduced to 10%. Mortality is highest among the elderly population, patients with preexisting disease, those confined to a bed, and those who are socially isolated."

Not sure if you can access this link without a subscription, but according to Medscape, the mortality rate is even higher:

"Morbidity and mortality from heat stroke are related to the duration of the temperature elevation. When therapy is delayed, the mortality rate may be as high as 80%; however, with early diagnosis and immediate cooling, the mortality rate can be reduced to 10%. Mortality is highest among the elderly population, patients with preexisting disease, those confined to a bed, and those who are socially isolated."

Thanks. I'm trying to find any source/study that correlates to Phil's situation though, 6 hour timeframe. These studies seem to be much longer term.