I like your analysis method, Donjeta. JI'd like to just to piggy back on it and play devil's advocate for a minute or two. Please see my comments in green.
We seem to be much on the same page here, Shaymus. To continue with the what if's and the problems with entertaining the various theories of CG's involvement:
I guess the answer to the first question here is that the abduction could have been aborted by JR waking up and/or Misty stirring in her sleep.
It would make sense and might easily have happened, but if CS had been planning to run away to Brazil with both children and instead their plans had been rudely abrupted and she'd had to quickly find a hiding place for one child and stay here pretending to be a concerned mother, they'd likely been flustered enough to be caught earlier. If the intention was to take both children and stay put to fool the investigators all along, it wouldn't have been such an upheaval in plans to do away with just one, but why would they have wanted to do that? Just to get back at RC? People do strange and upsetting things but CS seemed to be moving on with her life, with a new baby and a new relationship, so this seems a somewhat unlikely time to be plotting revenge on her ex, and would CG really have agreed to be in it? I'd think for most people the motivation to take part in such a scheme would have to be personal and not just to go along with your partner's whims. ("Really, you want to abduct a child? Just to hide her or to kill her? Oh, ok, how about Tuesday? I've got a day off then.")
And the answer to the second question is with a relative or friend LE is not aware of. That seems unlikely to me. What would they do when Haleigh suddenly reappeared ?
Unless reappearance was never planned. The cadaver dogs hit on the dumpster after all
They might have planned to leave, change their names and join the children once the investigation got cold. Highly suspicious, though. And there would hardly seem to be a point for Crystal to set up the Haleigh-bug center if she knew where the child was. I doubt it will bring her so much money in donations in the long run that it'll pay off financially and although it may make her look like a concerned parent it won't get her off the hook if there's any evidence against her.
The only option I can working here is placing Haleigh in an underground endangered child network. I'm not saying that Haleigh was in a dangerous situation, just that those networks are a possibility. The problems with that theory are that Crystal would never see her again and I really don't believe anyone had the foresight to know that Haleigh really was in danger (she did disappear). I just don't think this could've been the motive.
No, it seems far-fetched. If there was some real or imagined danger, a concerned mother would likely want to be with her endangered child to be able to protect her, not to pass her off to live with strangers indefinitely.
IMO, staging an abduction to make the custodial parent look bad would be a sure fire way to lose custody. How could Chad and Crystal ensure that Haleigh would never say who took her and where she had been kept ? Even if Haleigh didn't know how to describe what had happened, clues would slip out. Again, not looking like the motive to me.
No, it would not have seemed a rational course of action unless they were stoned out of their brains. And if theyd been stoned out of their brains they'd have been caught by now unless LE was even more braindead.
If he didn't get along with Haleigh as a stepfather or abused her in some manner, I think she'd more likely have disappeared from their place to cover up "an accident".
I don't think so. While the disappearance would've been easier to effect, it but would've led LE right to his door.
What I meant was that it's sadly common that conflicts, abuse, fits of anger or criminal negligence end disastrously with the (step)child dying unintendedly and if it happened while Haleigh was visiting he/they'd have been forced to invent a quick plan to cover the incident out of necessity. But going to get her from Satsuma to abduct or to kill her requires a far different degree of cold pre-meditation and planning and is, IMO, less likely to happen just because the relationship between the stepparent and stepchild may be strained. Of course he
might be, unbeknownst to us, a murderous psychopath, a SO who does terrible things to children just because he enjoys it or a crazy person hearing voices that Haleigh was out to get him. But then so might anybody else. I dont think we currently have any more reason to suspect him of those things than any other random person. At least I don't have, I know so little of him.
If he wasn't planning on Haleigh resurfacing, then the recipient of his vengefulness would be Crystal as well.
When people are doing revenge the recipient is more often the spouse or the ex-spouse than the mother-in-law or some other relative, so it wouldn't be completely impossible if their relationship is abusive. However, there are easier ways to torture your partner and some of them arent even illegal. Furthermore, I might be wrong about this but it seems to me that often the partners who get revenged via hurting the children have made threats before and sometimes make no secret that it's their doing, and if there was reason for Crystal to suspect Chad, we might have seen some signs of that in her behaviour.
I think it's possible that they [Misty and Chad] could've met when the children were being handed off, but I don't know if they had more than that passing aquaintance. Jealousy on both their parts is a potential motive that they could share. Ron and Crystal have a bond in those beautiful children. But would jealousy be enough motive to cooly conspire to kidnap and perhaps murder one or more of their children in order to interfer with that bond ?
It hardly seems enough motive to me but then again pretty much nothing does
Maybe Haleigh wandered off on her own and drowned after all. I dont suppose that Misty could easily have foreseen that shed be married within a month once Haleigh had disappeared while she was supposed to be watching the children and the LE had said shed been unable to clarify the timeline consistently. If I was Misty I would have been scared of the childs father dumping me right away and all in all losing his child would have seemed rather a bad plan to endear myself to the father. And if Misty had been in it and CG didn't have to worry about her waking up, why was Jr. left? He's supposedly as much a bond between the parents as Haleigh.
So far none of the scenarios with CG involved seem to work very well for me but it's all really just hypothetical for me. He's been off the public eye so much that I haven't been able to get a clear picture of what he's like as a person. I might have to change my mind if we suddenly saw him acting weirdly a lot.