CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #40

[aust amateur slueth]

People reported seeing him walking but all of those reports turned out to be unsubstantiated. (There is another older boy at the lake who looks similar to Dylan)

there have been a number of links provided more than once that state there were no confirmed sightings of Dylan.


I'm curious about how this mail person could be so certain it was Dylan that she saw, was she all up in his face or was she at a distance? how many times has she seen Dylan prior to November, at best it sounds like she wouldn't have seen him more than a couple of times a year.


MR did himself no favours with his game playing 'Yes I'll take a polygraph, Its a lot to take in, yes I'll do it tomorrow, I'm going to take the polygraph, I don't feel well enough to take a polygraph, and again a no later on. WTH does he want to clear his name or not?

Trimarco and Dr Phil got his measure very quickly, I wouldn't be surprised if Trmarco has had a conversation about him with the FBI. something is very wrong with the actions and responses of MR.

 

[ColdHands]

Just seems like the easiest thing in the world to prove - find the boys that were walking on the road. I felt that Elaine did not know their identities or she would have had a stronger argument than "unconfirmed." Don't you think she would smack that down with everything she had? It is the ONLY tip that's been publicized that puts Dylan alive after the Walmart/McDonalds stops and Mark brought it to the Dr. Phil show. I just think that Cory would have had those names in his back pocket to throw in Mark's face, if those names were known.

So does LE know the names and hasn't told the family? I cannot think of a LE strategy that would require those names to be unknown to the family (not saying the public needs them at all)

Ambiguities.

 

[deoneta]

Just seems like the easiest thing in the world to prove - find the boys that were walking on the road. I felt that Elaine did not know their identities or she would have had a stronger argument than "unconfirmed." Don't you think she would smack that down with everything she had? It is the ONLY tip that's been publicized that puts Dylan alive after the Walmart/McDonalds stops and Mark brought it to the Dr. Phil show. I just think that Cory would have had those names in his back pocket to throw in Mark's face, if those names were known.

So does LE know the names and hasn't told the family? I cannot think of a LE strategy that would require those names to be unknown to the family (not saying the public needs them at all)

Ambiguities.

I believe LE has found the boys and confirmed their identities. I don't think it's really been publicized. It was mentioned early on, but not since LE has repeatedly said "no sightings" or earlier sightings had been dismissed. If these boys have not been identified, why isn't LE asking for help as they have for locating the mysterious Hispanic prospective renter? I just don't believe Dylan was right there in the neighborhood while MR was taking his one or two hour nap, depending on which nap duration (if any) one chooses to believe, and in that narrow window of opportunity, an abduction took place. All MOO

 

[jjenny]

Nerves, anxiety, depression, fear ... He had already either failed or had inconclusive results from one test, and was terrified that would happen again on a big time tv show, where in front of millions he would more than likely be accused of being guilty?
:moo:

Why did he fail or had inconclusive results from one test?

 

[catswhiskers]

Why did he fail or had inconclusive results from one test?

I don't know, but given they aren't admissible in court, and serial killers have been known to pass the occasional LDT, I don't quite understand why whether or not MR sat for one on a talk show has become the be all and end all of this case for some.
:moo:

 

[lillygator]

I am actually very shocked that some are defending MR...there is only 1 reason he wouldn't take that poly. And I don't think he drank to get out of it, I am willing to bet he drinks every night.

 

[cluciano63]

Wouldn't DP and the expert have discussed with MR whether he was on any anti-depressants, etc. before making arrangements for the test?

 

[TheDuchess]

The only way a kid wouldnt text is if the phone was taken away!
JMO

One was that he realized when Mark went out the door that it wa serious and he was losing his ride. Grabbed everything, ran out the door too late. Stood there, dejected, someone came along, sees him, started a conversation, offers a ride, got him into a vehicle thinking he could call or text while on the road.

Another is that he got up, did his thing for a bit, delayed contacting friends for whatever reason (just didn't feel like it?) Stepped outside for a few minutes, chocking things out. Someone comes along, sees him, starts a conversation, offers a ride if he's really quick, Dylan grabs his stuff, gets into the vehicle thinking he'll call or text while they're on the road.

Third scenario had someone at the house. Either already there or comes shortly after Mark leaves. Enters the house, takes Dylan before he had a chance to make contact that morning.

1 and 2 could apply to either acquaintance or stranger grab. 3 seems to be most applicable to an acquaintance. 1 and 2 rely on incredible coincidence, 3 relies on someone having knowledge of what was going on in the house. (Ie Mark gone, Dylan home alone).

They are not perfect theories obviously. But they could apply and there's just as much evidence for a scenario like these IMO as one that as Mark killing his son. Since there's not really any evidence of anything at all.

OK...I supposed 1 or 2 COULD have happened, but as you indicated, it would be really a coincidence. My problem with this whole abduction thing is that Dylan was 13, almost 14 at the time. Sure, I know it happens, but it seems really unlikely that he would fit in with what is a typical target for a child molester. I'm not sure of statistics, though. I am just trying to think logically. What is the percentage of child abductions for a male of this age? I would think that males of this age would be more subject to grooming from possible molesters rather than a snatch and grab. They would know they had a big fight on their hands with a young teenaged boy-why would they risk it? Are there other instances of boys this age in the area being snatched away by a predator? While I understand there is no standard for child molester, how likely is it that one would hang out in front of a remote house or just so happen to find a boy who would agree to a ride, then ultimately kill him and bury the bo dy somewhere. And no one saw a thing. Dylan didn't use his phone to call for help? If Dyland were 9 or 10, I might believe this, but Dylan is a teenaged boy. I have a difficult time believing this is likely to happen.

I do find it very easy to suspect a family member, as that is the most likely scenario. We know a lot about MR. He has a temper, he is a drinker, he has refused a poly, he hasn't helped find Dylan, he was the last person to see Dylan, he;s a bad husband, a bad father, and he was the last known person to see him alive. I could go on, but I am looking at a preponderance of evidence at this point. He isn't on trial (yet) so to me the odds at this stage are about 95/5 that MR is responsible.

 

[KateNY]

La Plata Co. LE said in one of those recent article that they would be watching the show.

Wonder if any LE was in the audience, saw the 'uncut' whole version.
If none from La Plata Co went, maybe local FBI in CA?

 

[SCHMAE]

Wouldn't DP and the expert have discussed with MR whether he was on any anti-depressants, etc. before making arrangements for the test?

Well i read a little bit on this yesterday and apparently it's a common MYTH that people think anti d's can cause you trouble with a poly. Apparently once they hook you up and get a ' baseline' reading, then deception comes from there or not. Like once they know what your bp, hr and respirations are at, whether that is below normal due to a medication or above normal due to say high bp or anxiety, then they go from there. In other words taking a valium will NOT help you pass a poly if you're lying ! moooooooo

 

[pattywack]

I could possibly consider some of the scenarios presented if not for the cell phone activity.DR last text to his friend ,Ryan was at 8:01 .The text at 9:37 was to who ? There is a reason LE is not disclosing the who as well as the contents of the final text....from Dylan's phone. Who is to say it was even Dylan. Where did the phone ping at during that last text? None of this has been released ad IMO there is a reason why.I'm sure LE know a lot more than they are saying. IMO this whole thing was premeditated to get back at ER and it all took place on Sunday evening.I don't think DR ever made it to the house. I so hope and pray that I am wrong.But this is my gut instinct. It makes me very sad.

 

[SCHMAE]

OK...I supposed 1 or 2 COULD have happened, but as you indicated, it would be really a coincidence. My problem with this whole abduction thing is that Dylan was 13, almost 14 at the time. Sure, I know it happens, but it seems really unlikely that he would fit in with what is a typical target for a child molester. I'm not sure of statistics, though. I am just trying to think logically. What is the percentage of child abductions for a male of this age? I would think that males of this age would be more subject to grooming from possible molesters rather than a snatch and grab. They would know they had a big fight on their hands with a young teenaged boy-why would they risk it? Are there other instances of boys this age in the area being snatched away by a predator? While I understand there is no standard for child molester, how likely is it that one would hang out in front of a remote house or just so happen to find a boy who would agree to a ride, then ultimately kill him and bury the bo dy somewhere. And no one saw a thing. Dylan didn't use his phone to call for help? If Dyland were 9 or 10, I might believe this, but Dylan is a teenaged boy. I have a difficult time believing this is likely to happen.

I do find it very easy to suspect a family member, as that is the most likely scenario. We know a lot about MR. He has a temper, he is a drinker, he has refused a poly, he hasn't helped find Dylan, he was the last person to see Dylan, he;s a bad husband, a bad father, and he was the last known person to see him alive. I could go on, but I am looking at a preponderance of evidence at this point. He isn't on trial (yet) so to me the odds at this stage are about 95/5 that MR is responsible.

BBM I am no expert at all but for about 30 yrs I've read countless true books of these incidents and it seems that almost always when a predator gets a child, no one saw a thing, no one suspected a thing and the predator stumbled on a perfect opportunity in a really unlikely way. For example ... one minute later and the road would have 3 cars on it or 4 minutes before the parent had just seen the child. Predators are uncannily lucky it seems.

 

[ColdHands]

Well i read a little bit on this yesterday and apparently it's a common MYTH that people think anti d's can cause you trouble with a poly. Apparently once they hook you up and get a ' baseline' reading, then deception comes from there or not. Like once they know what your bp, hr and respirations are at, whether that is below normal due to a medication or above normal due to say high bp or anxiety, then they go from there. In other words taking a valium will NOT help you pass a poly if you're lying ! moooooooo

When I was thinking of the effects of antidepressants/anti-anxiety medications I wasn't thinking about the poly. I was thinking about his exterior presentation, the lack of emotions, etc.

I assume they must be able to do polygraphs on people that take antidepressants.

 

[SCHMAE]

When I was thinking of the effects of antidepressants/anti-anxiety medications I wasn't thinking about the poly. I was thinking about his exterior presentation, the lack of emotions, etc.

I assume they must be able to do polygraphs on people that take antidepressants.

Oh oops sorry ~
That's what I get for talking on the phone while sleuthing....

 

[Kimster]

I am actually very shocked that some are defending MR...there is only 1 reason he wouldn't take that poly. And I don't think he drank to get out of it, I am willing to bet he drinks every night.

While I admit MR's actions make me HIGHLY suspicious, I would like to add that from my experience of knowing alcoholics, an alcoholic would not be able to keep from drinking and if stressed about a poly they would even feel they needed more to get the faux comfort they feel they require. I am also not saying he is an alcoholic, just throwing out some thoughts to ponder.

 

[Kimster]

Oh oops sorry ~
That's what I get for talking on the phone while sleuthing....

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m2lggwFTaR1qmgw1m.gif

 

[fedfan4life]

In those scenarios outlined above, it would have equated to a 'perfect storm' of circumstances. Instead of working logically from Point A (Dylan's whereabouts are known) --> Point B (Dylan's whereabouts are unknown), the exercise is turning that around starting w/Point B and filling-in-the-blanks to Point A w/all conceivable possibilities, answering yes to every single 'What If' statement presented, no matter how convoluted the overall picture becomes. It's what defense attorneys do all the time, start from Point B --> Point A throwing every possibility, and it's second cousin, into the mix.

But, it's not logical...

 

[*Lash*]

It is also said when an alcoholic says they had 3 beers most likely they're only telling half the story. You can usually double the amount they claimed to have drank. 3 beers most likely would be 6 or more. 1 pint of JB or a half pint could easily be 2 pints. Just sayin...

 

[aust amateur slueth]

I could possibly consider some of the scenarios presented if not for the cell phone activity.DR last text to his friend ,Ryan was at 8:01 .The text at 9:37 was to who ? There is a reason LE is not disclosing the who as well as the contents of the final text....from Dylan's phone. Who is to say it was even Dylan. Where did the phone ping at during that last text? None of this has been released ad IMO there is a reason why.I'm sure LE know a lot more than they are saying. IMO this whole thing was premeditated to get back at ER and it all took place on Sunday evening.I don't think DR ever made it to the house. I so hope and pray that I am wrong.But this is my gut instinct. It makes me very sad.

you've hit on something that I've been thinking for quite a while. I don't believe that 9.37pm text was from Dylan, but I do think it was to his friend that he'd been in contact with and not from his phone.

I think there must have been something 'off' about that last text, what it said or the way it was written maybe, something that didn't sound like Dylan wrote it.

I think LE know more than they are saying, how much more is anyones guess but I hope its a he!! of a lot more.

I also think it was premeditated and as much as I hope and pray that he has only hidden Dylan I fear it is much much worse.

I think it is all about getting back at Elaine, at hurting her because she left MR and she was happy without MR in her life.

 

[ColdHands]

BTW, I don't think Dylan was grabbed as in physically grabbed because I would also believe there would be signs of a struggle. If he was taken, he was probably lured into a vehicle. Evidence would be in someone's car then and not on the road.