CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #49

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*Lash* said:
Hi Cheese!

I don't think you're arguing or trying to convince anyone. I appreciate your logic and respect your opinion. We just happen to have a differing opinion.

In my opinion, the NM team did what they could at the time. I do think they're a professional respected team. I believe some of the statements made by Bender during the search in November indicate the divers were used liberally because of the water temperature and the depth of the lake. Imo- liberally, out of concern for the safety of the divers. Then in December, more than a week later the search team was back out on the lake. The search team did not dive. Bender said they were checking in case changes in water and lake conditions could have resulted in any changes from last week. What changes could have occurred that would change the search results? In my opinion, I take from this, LE was not able to rule out the lake because of the conditions at the time of the first search.

Bender also stated the hits could have been from an elk or dead animal even though the dog owners stated the dogs are trained to differentiate between human remains and animal remains. If there was a dead elk, why didn't they find the animal?

November -

Divers have to be used judiciously, Bender said. The elevation of Vallecito, 7,700 feet, the 38 degree water and its depth, 40 feet, allow them to search safely for only 20 to 30 minutes.

Then, divers must wait eight hours before working again, Bender said. “Divers can’t take a break to have a Coke, then go back down,” he said.

http://durangoherald.com/article/20121126/NEWS01/121129702/Frustration-mounting

December -

Three boats equipped with sonar searched areas of Vallecito Reservoir that haven’t previously been searched, he said.

“We have no new tips that have sent us back to the lake, but we’re checking in case changes in water and lake conditions could have resulted in any changes from last week,” Bender said in a release.

“These new searches are not based on any new tips, either,” he said. “We are just trying to be as thorough as possible and look as many places as we can for Dylan.”

http://durangoherald.com/article/20121204/NEWS01/121209802/0/News03/Area-reservoirs-searched-again
Click to expand...

Hi Lash. Thanks. That's a good question about the December search, because they were looking at different areas. So if these were different areas, how do you look for changes if you haven't already searched the area to know what it did look like a week ago, to be able to identify those changes in the new search? I just don't know what he meant.

They also were looking at a bunch of lakes in the area with helicopters the same day.

This past Tuesday morning, three boats equipped with sonar resumed a search of Vallecito Reservoir, and the task force searched the shoreline.

“We have no new tips that have sent us back to the lake, but we’re checking in case changes in water and lake conditions could have resulted in any changes from last week,” said task force spokesman Dan Bender from the La Plata County Sheriff’s Office.

“Those searches have not found anything at this time, but are continuing throughout the day today (Tuesday),” Bender said.

A helicopter from the San Juan County (N.M.) Sheriff’s Office searched area lakes in La Plata County Tuesday afternoon. Those lakes included Vallecito, Lemon, Haviland Lake, Lake Nighthorse, and Electra Lake.

“These new searches are not based on any new tips either,” clarified Sgt. Bender. “We are just trying to be as thorough as possible and look as many places as we can for Dylan.”

http://www.pinerivertimes.com/news.asp?artid=1098

I just don't know what he meant about the changes. Nothing in that indicates to me that there was something left undone or incomplete or inadequately in the initial LE lake search though, because these were new and different areas.

So far as the divers only being able to go down 20 to 30 minutes at a time, it seems they compensated for that by having so many divers there. If the 7 divers went down once a day for the 2 day search, that would be somewhere between 14 and 28 dives, 14 to 28 unusual things found by the sonar on the bottom they'd have checked. I didn't see any statements by LE or the dive team that there were any unusual things they hadn't been able to send a diver down for, so again, I can't see that as causing something undone or inadequate or incomplete.

It's a huge lake, and I don't think anyone could ever rule it out, because they can't drain it. I think draining a body of water is the only way you can rule it out. So if anyone wants to check other areas of the lake, I think that's fine. I just don't think it's necessary because of any inadequacy in the first search.

I also understand that LE can't go out and sort of "search everything". They need something to point them there. But Elaine, as Dylan's mother, certainly can and should search anything she feels she should. Her child is missing, and I would do the same thing.

Again, JMO, and just explaining why I'm thinking the way I'm thinking FWIW.
 
The Cheese said:
Hi Lash. Thanks. That's a good question about the December search, because they were looking at different areas. So if these were different areas, how do you look for changes if you haven't already searched the area to know what it did look like a week ago, to be able to identify those changes in the new search? I just don't know what he meant.

They also were looking at a bunch of lakes in the area with helicopters the same day.

This past Tuesday morning, three boats equipped with sonar resumed a search of Vallecito Reservoir, and the task force searched the shoreline.

“We have no new tips that have sent us back to the lake, but we’re checking in case changes in water and lake conditions could have resulted in any changes from last week,” said task force spokesman Dan Bender from the La Plata County Sheriff’s Office.

“Those searches have not found anything at this time, but are continuing throughout the day today (Tuesday),” Bender said.

A helicopter from the San Juan County (N.M.) Sheriff’s Office searched area lakes in La Plata County Tuesday afternoon. Those lakes included Vallecito, Lemon, Haviland Lake, Lake Nighthorse, and Electra Lake.

“These new searches are not based on any new tips either,” clarified Sgt. Bender. “We are just trying to be as thorough as possible and look as many places as we can for Dylan.”

http://www.pinerivertimes.com/news.asp?artid=1098

I just don't know what he meant about the changes. Nothing in that indicates to me that there was something left undone or incomplete or inadequately in the initial LE lake search though, because these were new and different areas.

So far as the divers only being able to go down 20 to 30 minutes at a time, it seems they compensated for that by having so many divers there. If the 7 divers went down once a day for the 2 day search, that would be somewhere between 14 and 28 dives, 14 to 28 unusual things found by the sonar on the bottom they'd have checked. I didn't see any statements by LE or the dive team that there were any unusual things they hadn't been able to send a diver down for, so again, I can't see that as causing something undone or inadequate or incomplete.

It's a huge lake, and I don't think anyone could ever rule it out, because they can't drain it. I think draining a body of water is the only way you can rule it out. So if anyone wants to check other areas of the lake, I think that's fine. I just don't think it's necessary because of any inadequacy in the first search.

I also understand that LE can't go out and sort of "search everything". They need something to point them there. But Elaine, as Dylan's mother, certainly can and should search anything she feels she should. Her child is missing, and I would do the same thing.

Again, JMO, and just explaining why I'm thinking the way I'm thinking FWIW.
Click to expand...

I thought the changes might have had to do with thinking things were stuck on lake debris either on the way down or up. They did alot of flyovers in that period as well, looking for Dylan in and around the lake. Lake conditions: clear vs murky, temperature changes - it had dropped quite a bit in December- wind vs calm? Just guessing.

I agree completely that Elaine needs to do this. I would too.
 
rebeccaeee said:
I thought the changes might have had to do with thinking things were stuck on lake debris either on the way down or up. They did alot of flyovers in that period as well, looking for Dylan in and around the lake. Lake conditions: clear vs murky, temperature changes - it had dropped quite a bit in December- wind vs calm? Just guessing.

I agree completely that Elaine needs to do this. I would too.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure what changes could have occurred between November and December that would impact visibility in an alpine lake like Vallecito Reservoir.
Alpine lakes are usually clearer than lakes at lower elevations due to the colder water which decreases the speed and amount of algae and moss growth in the water.
Click to expand...

I could see some issues with algae growth in the summer months but would that be an issue in November/December?

[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpine_lake"]Alpine lake - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]
 
Interesting news clip about MO, who I assume is the same PI who attempted to help out with Dylan's case?

KRDO.com news April 19

As someone else pointed out recently, the last LE statement did in fact say that they had located the hispanic man who IIRC was originally sought by MO, and while the lead wasn't fruitful, it was in fact a valid tip - not a fabrication.

In February, investigators asked the public to help identify a man who was seen in Vallecito looking for gas on the day Dylan was reported missing. Investigators were able to identify and contact the man. He has not been linked to Dylan’s disappearance and was in the area on legitimate business.
Click to expand...
 
catswhiskers said:
Interesting news clip about MO, who I assume is the same PI who attempted to help out with Dylan's case?

KRDO.com news April 19

As someone else pointed out recently, the last LE statement did in fact say that they had located the hispanic man who IIRC was originally sought by MO, and while the lead wasn't fruitful, it was in fact a valid tip - not a fabrication.
Click to expand...

Interesting comments at the bottom from Mr Olson. It seems MR accepted his offer to help find Dylan but Mr Olson rescinded the offer after MR refused to take a polygraph for him. He seems like a good honest guy.
 
The Cheese said:
Hi Lash. Thanks. That's a good question about the December search, because they were looking at different areas. So if these were different areas, how do you look for changes if you haven't already searched the area to know what it did look like a week ago, to be able to identify those changes in the new search? I just don't know what he meant.

They also were looking at a bunch of lakes in the area with helicopters the same day.

This past Tuesday morning, three boats equipped with sonar resumed a search of Vallecito Reservoir, and the task force searched the shoreline.

“We have no new tips that have sent us back to the lake, but we’re checking in case changes in water and lake conditions could have resulted in any changes from last week,” said task force spokesman Dan Bender from the La Plata County Sheriff’s Office.

“Those searches have not found anything at this time, but are continuing throughout the day today (Tuesday),” Bender said.

A helicopter from the San Juan County (N.M.) Sheriff’s Office searched area lakes in La Plata County Tuesday afternoon. Those lakes included Vallecito, Lemon, Haviland Lake, Lake Nighthorse, and Electra Lake.

“These new searches are not based on any new tips either,” clarified Sgt. Bender. “We are just trying to be as thorough as possible and look as many places as we can for Dylan.”

http://www.pinerivertimes.com/news.asp?artid=1098

I just don't know what he meant about the changes. Nothing in that indicates to me that there was something left undone or incomplete or inadequately in the initial LE lake search though, because these were new and different areas.

So far as the divers only being able to go down 20 to 30 minutes at a time, it seems they compensated for that by having so many divers there. If the 7 divers went down once a day for the 2 day search, that would be somewhere between 14 and 28 dives, 14 to 28 unusual things found by the sonar on the bottom they'd have checked. I didn't see any statements by LE or the dive team that there were any unusual things they hadn't been able to send a diver down for, so again, I can't see that as causing something undone or inadequate or incomplete.

It's a huge lake, and I don't think anyone could ever rule it out, because they can't drain it. I think draining a body of water is the only way you can rule it out. So if anyone wants to check other areas of the lake, I think that's fine. I just don't think it's necessary because of any inadequacy in the first search.

I also understand that LE can't go out and sort of "search everything". They need something to point them there. But Elaine, as Dylan's mother, certainly can and should search anything she feels she should. Her child is missing, and I would do the same thing.

Again, JMO, and just explaining why I'm thinking the way I'm thinking FWIW.
Click to expand...


Dear Cheese,

First, if you could, will you please provide some links for your information (especially about the lake depths by the dam)? I ask because I'm doing some searching myself and would like to see where you're finding some of this.

As to the divers, if each diver went down once a day, or twice over the course of two days, wouldn't that only be 14 dives total? I'm not sure where the 28 comes from.

JMO, but 14 dives of limited duration does not seem like that much to me for an area that size, with poor visibility. You give a figure of 20-30 minutes per dive, which means they spent between 4.6 and 7 hours TOTAL over the two days.

Thanks in advance.
 
catswhiskers said:
Interesting news clip about MO, who I assume is the same PI who attempted to help out with Dylan's case?

KRDO.com news April 19

As someone else pointed out recently, the last LE statement did in fact say that they had located the hispanic man who IIRC was originally sought by MO, and while the lead wasn't fruitful, it was in fact a valid tip - not a fabrication.
Click to expand...

So here is a PI whose work is highly praised by Crime-Stoppers, who has a high rate of success, who helps search for missing children on a volunteer bases and MR gets to him first and essentially puts him on the sidelines. I don't think that is by accident. JMO.
 
AnotherSetOfEyes said:
So here is a PI whose work is highly praised by Crime-Stoppers, who has a high rate of success, who helps search for missing children on a volunteer bases and MR gets to him first and essentially puts him on the sidelines. I don't think that is by accident. JMO.
Click to expand...

The guy has a good track record. It seems IF MR really wanted his help finding Dylan he would have done as he asked to clear himself.

Why should this guy waste his time doing this for free if he had any questions as to MR's involvement? Can't blame him at all.
 
dlc said:
Dear Cheese,

First, if you could, will you please provide some links for your information (especially about the lake depths by the dam)? I ask because I'm doing some searching myself and would like to see where you're finding some of this.

As to the divers, if each diver went down once a day, or twice over the course of two days, wouldn't that only be 14 dives total? I'm not sure where the 28 comes from.

JMO, but 14 dives of limited duration does not seem like that much to me for an area that size, with poor visibility. You give a figure of 20-30 minutes per dive, which means they spent between 4.6 and 7 hours TOTAL over the two days.

Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

7 divers times 2 days would be 14 dives, and if they went for their first dive early and were able to do a second dive each day, that would be 28 dives, right? It's one dive every 8 hours.

Articles about the depth being 40 feet have been linked just recently. I'll link them again for you though, but it probably won't be until tomorrow.

ETA - Well, here's one article about the 40 feet. It happened to be in the article I had about one dive every hours. I'll get you more of the 40 feet articles tomorrow. I'm in the middle of a movie, just waiting for my husband to take a quick break.

Divers have to be used judiciously, Bender said. The elevation of Vallecito, 7,700 feet, the 38 degree water and its depth, 40 feet, allow them to search safely for only 20 to 30 minutes.

Then, divers must wait eight hours before working again, Bender said. “Divers can’t take a break to have a Coke, then go back down,” he said.

http://www.durangoherald.com/article/20121126/NEWS01/121129702/Frustration-mounting
 
The Cheese said:
Sigh. Husband has another phone call, so here are some more 40 feet links.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the links. LE mentions a depth of about 40 feet and they never mention "poor visibility" or "murky water" at any time.
 
RANCH said:
Thanks for the links. LE mentions a depth of about 40 feet and they never mention "poor visibility" or "murky water" at any time.
Click to expand...

There was one mention of their visibility being 8-10 feet. There was no mention if that was considered "poor" or not.

Yes, the average depth of Vallecito Reservoir is roughly 40 feet (still attempting to confirm officially if that is the recorded avg. depth, or just in the area on the East shoreline).

However, it gets very deep near the dam itself. The maximum depth (at the deepest part) which is in the area by the dam - is usually around 121.5 feet deep. I have searched in vain for a topographical-type depth map of the lake (like a reverse elevation map).

I think the point - at least I was trying to make all along - was that there is no way possible for them to have dove down to the absolute bottom of the lake near the dam if anything had been found there.

I don't know why people are getting so stuck on this though. No-one is criticizing the job done by the divers by saying there should be a second search when conditions are prime.
 
Redhead72 said:
There was one mention of their visibility being 8-10 feet. There was no mention if that was considered "poor" or not.

Yes, the average depth of Vallecito Reservoir is roughly 40 feet (still attempting to confirm officially if that is the recorded avg. depth, or just in the area on the East shoreline).

However, it gets very deep near the dam itself. The maximum depth (at the deepest part) which is in the area by the dam - is usually around 121.5 feet deep. I have searched in vain for a topographical-type depth map of the lake (like a reverse elevation map).

I think the point - at least I was trying to make all along - was that there is no way possible for them to have dove down to the absolute bottom of the lake near the dam if anything had been found there.

I don't know why people are getting so stuck on this though. No-one is criticizing the job done by the divers by saying there should be a second search when conditions are prime.
Click to expand...

I must have missed the report saying the divers only had 8 to 10 feet of visibility. That seems to be pretty poor for an alpine lake IMO.

I would like to know the depth of the lake where the HRD dogs alerted and the divers went in and checked it out. It's possible that it was near the dam and only be about 40 feet deep in November.

Wouldn't the lake be at it's lowest at that time of year? MOO.
 
The Cheese said:
7 divers times 2 days would be 14 dives, and if they went for their first dive early and were able to do a second dive each day, that would be 28 dives, right? It's one dive every 8 hours.

Articles about the depth being 40 feet have been linked just recently. I'll link them again for you though, but it probably won't be until tomorrow.

ETA - Well, here's one article about the 40 feet. It happened to be in the article I had about one dive every hours. I'll get you more of the 40 feet articles tomorrow. I'm in the middle of a movie, just waiting for my husband to take a quick break.

Divers have to be used judiciously, Bender said. The elevation of Vallecito, 7,700 feet, the 38 degree water and its depth, 40 feet, allow them to search safely for only 20 to 30 minutes.

Then, divers must wait eight hours before working again, Bender said. “Divers can’t take a break to have a Coke, then go back down,” he said.

http://www.durangoherald.com/article/20121126/NEWS01/121129702/Frustration-mounting
Click to expand...

Unless they worked a 16-hour day, (which I sincerely doubt, considering the daylight hours alone) these numbers don't work out. 14 dives would be a bit more accurate, IMO.
 
I guess I'm equating the visibility in Vallecito Lake to the clarity of Lake Tahoe.
Lake Tahoe, CA/NV - Lake Tahoe’s clarity improved in 2012 for the second year in a row, and its waters were the clearest in 10 years, according to University of California, Davis, scientists who study the lake.

Last year’s average annual clarity level was 75.3 feet, or a 6.4-foot improvement from 2011, according to data released today by the UC Davis Tahoe Environmental Research Center and the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency.

The lake’s clarity is measured by the depth at which a 10” white disk, called a Secchi disk, remains visible when lowered beneath the water’s surface. The measurements have been taken since 1968, when the Secchi disk could be seen down to an average of 102.4 feet.
Click to expand...

Maybe something causes Vallecito Lake to have very poor visibility compared to other alpine lakes. It's located higher than Lake Tahoe so I would think that it's waters stay at least as cold if not colder. That would hinder algae growth. Maybe a large amount of sediment flowing into the lake?

http://terc.ucdavis.edu/research/clarity.html
 
RANCH said:
I guess I'm equating the visibility in Vallecito Lake to the clarity of Lake Tahoe.


Maybe something causes Vallecito Lake to have very poor visibility compared to other alpine lakes. It's located higher than Lake Tahoe so I would think that it's waters stay at least as cold if not colder. That would hinder algae growth. Maybe a large amount of sediment flowing into the lake?

http://terc.ucdavis.edu/research/clarity.html
Click to expand...

http://www.pagosasun.com/vallecito-lake-searched-for-missing-boy/

This article says visibility during the search under water was seven to nine feet.
 
NC Analyzer said:
Unless they worked a 16-hour day, (which I sincerely doubt, considering the daylight hours alone) these numbers don't work out. 14 dives would be a bit more accurate, IMO.
Click to expand...

The numbers I used work out fine. If you look at my original post up above, I said "somewhere between 14 and 28" dives.

Needing to work a 16 hour day doesn't work out, however, number wise. If you can dive every 8 hours, and each dive is 20 to 30 minutes, to complete 2 dives wouldn't take 16 sixteen hours. It would take 20 to 30 minutes plus 8 hours plus 20 to 30 minutes. About 9 hours. You could dive at 8am, then again at about 4:20pm to 4:30pm.

JMO
 
The Cheese said:
The numbers I used work out fine. If you look at my original post up above, I said "somewhere between 14 and 28" dives.

Needing to work a 16 hour day doesn't work out, however, number wise. If you can dive every 8 hours, and each dive is 20 to 30 minutes, to complete 2 dives wouldn't take 16 sixteen hours. It would take 20 to 30 minutes plus 8 hours plus 20 to 30 minutes. About 9 hours. You could dive at 8am, then again at about 4:20pm to 4:30pm.

JMO
Click to expand...

Let's see...out on the lake at 8 am. First diver in the water. 30 min give or take. That same diver couldn't dive again until 4:30 pm at the earliest. Dark sets in about 5 pm. So maybe 7-8 dives in one day. Tops. And I have my doubts about that because of the time it takes getting to the lake, boat in the water, out to the dive spot, break for lunch, etc,. Probably an 8 hour day, IMO. But IF they were dedicated, maybe they got one extra dive in by the 8 am guy. Not likely, IMO, but maybe. So altogether in 2 days, 14, maybe 16 dives. Tops. Certainly not 28 dives. And the dam area is much deeper than 40 ft. The 40 ft is the average lake depth, not the damn area depth. I believe that is all dlc and Redhead were trying to say and I agree with their conclusion. It is very sensible. Nothing negative about the dive team or their efforts. Simply pointing out that the conditions weren't ideal and more dives might have better results. Nothing more, nothing less.

ETA: Remember...they have to wait 8 hours BETWEEN the dive times, so first diver completed at 8:30 am wouldn't be able to re-enter the water until 4:30 pm at the earliest. By 5pm when that diver completed his dive, it would be getting dark.
 
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