CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #49

[ColdHands]

So, that chart has the water in the reservoir at it's highest/deepest in May and June of 2013?? Am I understanding that correctly?

Yes, it shows 12 month historical and forecasts out 12 months. IMO it makes sense that May and June would be peak months, due to mountain snowpack melt.

 

[ColdHands]

It sure looks like that to me. And it looks like the lake really was only 40 feet-ish in November/December of 2012. Still doesn't answer the deepest part question though. And whether it was deeper than 40 feet where they were diving. One of those depth maps would be nice.

So while diving might have been feasible in 2012. I don't know if they could actually dive deep enough in May. They might have to have someone with different equipment? Aren't there an experts here? Dive Guy and Sars, I thin. (my apologies if I have the names wrong.)

My thought is the limitation of human divers was going to be overcome by use of sidescan sonar and ROVs so hopefully the increased depth won't matter. IMO.

 

[Redhead72]

This site shows normal depth at the dam is 121.5 ft. I think other #s have been stated but this is what I'm going with. At that depth, the top of the lake is 7,665 ft elevation.
http://www.usbr.gov/projects/Facility.jsp?fac_Name=Vallecito+Dam&groupName=Dimensions
On the next site, you have to do some navigating yourself because the chart options don't save in the URL.
http://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/rsvrs/ds/vallecito.html
Go to Historic Data
Select Vallecito Reservoir and Select Dates
Set it to a date range that includes last November.
Click on Pool Elevation.
You'll see a chart that shows the lake surface was at about 7,625 in November. Meaning the lake depth had dropped about 40 ft fom the "normal" of 7,665. Whatever number you use as a max or normal lake depth at the dam, subtract 40 feet to get the depth in November.

Now what's really interesting is looking at historic data and using some common sense, the lake will be at its deepest in May due to runoff when the search is proposed.

The problem is that the "top" of 7665 ft. in ELEVATION is not the "normal" level - it is the absolute top of the spillway. That is the absolute deepest it can go - if there's a year of hard rain, and little release through the dam. The maximum depth of the lake itself (at the dam) is 167 feet when the reservoir is completely full.

Again, if the average depth of the lake (even in dry seasons) is 40 feet along the eastern shoreline, then if the level of water itself dropped 40 feet the shoreline would be bare/dry.

Thanks for finding the charts and such. I still don't think it's accurate to say that the lake itself was a full 40+ feet shallower than average.

Anyway, unless we can find some kind of hydropower/dam expert I think we are /all/ perhaps a bit over our heads in understanding these charts.

 

[Redhead72]

So using these numbers 121.5 - 40 = 81.5 feet, but the divers only went 40 feet...so less than half way to the bottom at the dam? Just trying to get all the numbers straight in my head. :moo:

I'm still not convinced that the water was some 40 feet below average in the deepest part of the lake. We're dealing with fuzzy math here because the reservoir itself is not typical at all - with very deep parts by the dam that are fully 3 times deeper than the average depth of the reservoir itself.

Anyway, regardless of the actual depth at the time - even IF the depth of 81.5 feet is accurate - my statements about the divers not going to the bottom near the dam remain - as you pointed out here. My thoughts on this are that they did dive near the bottom in areas where the depth was less (eastern shoreline), but they could not dive to depth near the dam - which is most likely where a body would be (due to undertow from the dam itself).

 

[Redhead72]

It sure looks like that to me. And it looks like the lake really was only 40 feet-ish in November/December of 2012. Still doesn't answer the deepest part question though. And whether it was deeper than 40 feet where they were diving. One of those depth maps would be nice.

So while diving might have been feasible in 2012. I don't know if they could actually dive deep enough in May. They might have to have someone with different equipment? Aren't there experts here? Dive Guy and Sars, I think. (my apologies if I have the names wrong.)

That was my question - if they are able to dive down 80 feet plus at that elevation even in warmer water due to the pressure/nitrogen concerns. I believe though that with the ROVs and state-of-the-art sonar the professional (private) team is supposed to be bringing in that even if someone can't physically dive down there - the rov's themselves are equipped with devices and they have methods to recover articles found (even a body).

 

[rebeccaeee]

That was my question - if they are able to dive down 80 feet plus at that elevation even in warmer water due to the pressure/nitrogen concerns. I believe though that with the ROVs and state-of-the-art sonar the professional (private) team is supposed to be bringing in that even if someone can't physically dive down there - the rov's themselves are equipped with devices and they have methods to recover articles found (even a body).

Probably much safer using ROVs and sonar anyhow. As I understand it, the wait is for a team to be available. Lots of lakes with lots of winter tragedies that need investigated. While Vallecito's ice is gone, the team is preoccupied elsewhere. FMDR noted this recently. Dylan is OUR first priority but so much has to align for this search to get underway.

 

[Money Girl]

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/basin/tc_sjr.html

 

[SCHMAE]

Praying the little sunshine boy finds his way home soon

 

[ColdHands]

The problem is that the "top" of 7665 ft. in ELEVATION is not the "normal" level - it is the absolute top of the spillway. That is the absolute deepest it can go - if there's a year of hard rain, and little release through the dam. The maximum depth of the lake itself (at the dam) is 167 feet when the reservoir is completely full.

Again, if the average depth of the lake (even in dry seasons) is 40 feet along the eastern shoreline, then if the level of water itself dropped 40 feet the shoreline would be bare/dry.

Thanks for finding the charts and such. I still don't think it's accurate to say that the lake itself was a full 40+ feet shallower than average.

Anyway, unless we can find some kind of hydropower/dam expert I think we are /all/ perhaps a bit over our heads in understanding these charts.

Not all of us are over our heads. I am pretty comfortable with research, charts and data and have developed a side interest in Colorado water issues since I moved here in 1986.

A good resource for dam terminology is also on that site:
http://www.usbr.gov/library/glossary/

We may not be looking for the same data in these charts. To me, the topography of that lakebed is going to be crazed with deep spots and shallow spots - without an exact location and a very recent topo map there's no way IMO to predict how deep a specific spot is. I am not interested in November's dives but I am curious about this upcoming search.

I used the elevation data to confirm that the lake is lowest in October/November timeframe, and will be at its peak for the year in May (which makes perfect sense) which looks like it will be IMO about 20-25 ft higher (deeper) than it was when Dylan went missing.

Our mountain reservoirs are almost 100% dependent on snow melt - we are a very arid region so rainfall carries less importance on our water availability. The 24 month prediction chart that was posted was made in March before our recent storms. Our snowpack just rebounded since the beginning of April (http://www.waterinfo.org/snowpack) and there is another storm coming this week. The recent weather could mean the lake will be even deeper in May than that 24 month forecast predicted IMO.

 

[AnotherSetOfEyes]

I don't know why today is so hard. Guess that is just part of the process with a long investigation. Maybe this is not even considered long to seasoned Websleuths. I think it is because I fear the case will go cold. Is it way too early to worry about that? Elaine and Cory and Mike are on my mind today. What must they be feeling?

 

[cluciano63]

I don't know why today is so hard. Guess that is just part of the process with a long investigation. Maybe this is not even considered long to seasoned Websleuths. I think it is because I fear the case will go cold. Is it way too early to worry about that? Elaine and Cory and Mike are on my mind today. What must they be feeling?

A case is cold when there is no new information. That can happen anytime, even in a matter of weeks. And then can be revived at any point. No way of knowing.

 

[rebeccaeee]

I don't know why today is so hard. Guess that is just part of the process with a long investigation. Maybe this is not even considered long to seasoned Websleuths. I think it is because I fear the case will go cold. Is it way too early to worry about that? Elaine and Cory and Mike are on my mind today. What must they be feeling?

Your first WS case too? Every day is hard, some more than others. Vallecito Lake opens for recreational fishing today, spring has sprung and yet, I, too am feeling for this family so much. I have to believe LE is working behind the scenes and just waiting for the right piece of evidence to move forward. No telling if this case is cold or not since LE isn't sharing much. Even cold cases get resolution and Team Dylan isn't giving up anytime soon.

 

[SCHMAE]

Well......sigh..... I have held on to hope against logic and reason that he may have been stashed somewhere by dad, playing nintendo , rationing oreos and just waiting for the all clear to re surface. It's pretty fanciful to think that way anymore isn't it ? If Dylan is alive, he's likely not playing nintendo or doing anything pleasant at all .
I just want this whole case to not be true. We should all pray that LE is just one turned page away from that light bulb moment that completes the puzzle !

 

[rebeccaeee]

Forget depth and visibility...at some point, someone recently (Redhead maybe?) referred to debris being trapped in the long, deep portion of the lake just in front of the dam. Take a look at this: http://www.usbr.gov/pmts/hydraulics_lab/pubs/R/R-94-04.pdf

It discusses the gate controlled concrete channels where water is released through the spillways as well as placement and dimension of those channels. Lots of amazing figures describing the construction of the dam as well. I'm still working on interpreting it but wanted to share it in the meantime.

 

[TxLady2]

A case is cold when there is no new information. That can happen anytime, even in a matter of weeks. And then can be revived at any point. No way of knowing.

A case remains open as long as they are still actively investigating it. When LE doesn't release any details, that doesn't mean it's not still being investigated, they may just not have any new leads recently. We call it cold here when people start dropping off the thread and there is very little being discussed, but it may not be cold to the detectives. Wait until it gets filed in the back room somewhere and nobody is even looking at the files anymore.... then we can call it a cold case.
I would bet somebody is still working on it and they consider it an ongoing investigation. LE doesn't give up that easily, IMO.

 

[cluciano63]

A case remains open as long as they are still actively investigating it. When LE doesn't release any details, that doesn't mean it's not still being investigated, they may just not have any new leads recently. We call it cold here when people start dropping off the thread and there is very little being discussed, but it may not be cold to the detectives. Wait until it gets filed in the back room somewhere and nobody is even looking at the files anymore.... then we can call it a cold case.
I would bet somebody is still working on it and they consider it an ongoing investigation. LE doesn't give up that easily, IMO.

I was not speaking specifically of this case. But IMO, a case is cold when all leads have been exhausted and none are coming in, even if it is not officially called "cold". No idea what the status of Dylan's case, in that sense.

 

[TheDuchess]

The bombings have taken a lot of my attention of late, but I still think of Dylan all the time and my kids always ask if I've heard anything. It is so sad that this case seems to be going nowhere...all of these innocent children unable to be found, put to rest, have justice served, etc...just so many....my heart is breaking for all of them.

 

[margarita25]

The bombings have taken a lot of my attention of late, but I still think of Dylan all the time and my kids always ask if I've heard anything. It is so sad that this case seems to be going nowhere...all of these innocent children unable to be found, put to rest, have justice served, etc...just so many....my heart is breaking for all of them.

Awwwww. Bless their hearts!

 

[phx]

Haven't been able to keep up with this for awhile Anything new, or same old, same old? TIA

 

[OtherEyes]

Thinking of Dylan and his family.:rose: