CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #49

[RANCH]

http://www.pagosasun.com/vallecito-lake-searched-for-missing-boy/

This article says visibility during the search under water was seven to nine feet.

That article also says that they cleared the areas that the K9's alerted to and no further searches of the lake "bottom" are planned unless new information is developed. It looks like their referring to sonar searches and not dive searches.

I'd like to know if the "four different sonar systems" that were used are sophisticated "side scan" sonar.

I'd also like to know why that lake has such poor visibility.

http://www.pagosasun.com/vallecito-lake-searched-for-missing-boy/

 

[azgrandma]

The numbers I used work out fine. If you look at my original post up above, I said "somewhere between 14 and 28" dives.

Needing to work a 16 hour day doesn't work out, however, number wise. If you can dive every 8 hours, and each dive is 20 to 30 minutes, to complete 2 dives wouldn't take 16 sixteen hours. It would take 20 to 30 minutes plus 8 hours plus 20 to 30 minutes. About 9 hours. You could dive at 8am, then again at about 4:20pm to 4:30pm.

JMO

Keep in mind that the divers aren't rotating on a moments notice, diver goes down, comes up, they talk, possibly move the boat (IDK) next diver goes down. Point is, there is TIME between each dive, it's not one comes out another goes in immediately.
The lake is 40 ft APPROXIMATE, so if it take you 5 minutes to get down, 10 to get up (remember you have to decompress on your way up so it will take long) that means each diver had about 15-20 minutes tops to search with poor visibility.

 

[The Cheese]

Let's see...out on the lake at 8 am. First diver in the water. 30 min give or take. That same diver couldn't dive again until 4:30 pm at the earliest. Dark sets in about 5 pm. So maybe 9 dives in one day. Tops. And I have my doubts about that because of the time it takes getting to the lake, boat in the water, out to the dive spot, break for lunch, etc,. Probably an 8 hour day, IMO. But IF they were dedicated, maybe they got one extra dive in by the 8 am guy. Not likely, IMO, but maybe. So altogether in 2 days, 14, maybe 16 dives. Tops. Certainly not 28 dives. And the dam area is much deeper than 40 ft. The 40 ft is the average lake depth, not the damn area depth. I believe that is all dlc and Redhead were trying to say and I agree with their conclusion. It is very sensible. Nothing negative about the dive team or their efforts. Simply pointing out that the conditions weren't ideal and more dives might have better results. Nothing more, nothing less.

Exactly. Somewhere between 14 and 28 dives.

 

[azgrandma]

Exactly. Somewhere between 14 and 28 dives.

how are you getting 28 dives? what am I missing? tia

 

[The Cheese]

Keep in mind that the divers aren't rotating on a moments notice, diver goes down, comes up, they talk, possibly move the boat (IDK) next diver goes down. Point is, there is TIME between each dive, it's not one comes out another goes in immediately.
The lake is 40 ft APPROXIMATE, so if it take you 5 minutes to get down, 10 to get up (remember you have to decompress on your way up so it will take long) that means each diver had about 15-20 minutes tops to search with poor visibility.

Yes, I thought of those things - decompression, did they have to wait while scanning with the sonar to find another abnormality or did they have the next one ready because they had 3 or 4 boats and sonar systems, etc.

That's why I said somewhere between 14 and 28 dives.

 

[NC Analyzer]

Exactly. Somewhere between 14 and 28 dives.

Please explain how you could possibly get 28 dives from 7 divers in a 2 day span, allowing 8 hours in between dives? Not to mention the fact that safe rules for divers are teams of 2...the buddy system? Even if they did singular dives, there isn't enough hours of daylight to accommodate more than 8 dives in a day?

 

[cluciano63]

That article also says that they cleared the areas that the K9's alerted to and no further searches of the lake "bottom" are planned unless new information is developed. It looks like their referring to sonar searches and not dive searches.

I'd like to know if the "four different sonar systems" that were used are sophisticated "side scan" sonar.

I'd also like to know why that lake has such poor visibility.

http://www.pagosasun.com/vallecito-lake-searched-for-missing-boy/

I feel that no searches of any kind will take place without new information, as far as LE is concerned.

 

[catswhiskers]

So here is a PI whose work is highly praised by Crime-Stoppers, who has a high rate of success, who helps search for missing children on a volunteer bases and MR gets to him first and essentially puts him on the sidelines. I don't think that is by accident. JMO.

Yet IIRC he was ridiculed from the outset - and you wouldn't have to search too far even now to read wisecracks about the hispanic hiding in the bushes. I have figured that public perception could have played a role in his withdrawal from the case. He was definitely not portrayed as being an asset to the case originally.
I had no idea that when you engaged a PI you were compelled to undergo a polygraph at their insistence? I'm realising that this must really be a cultural difference, as here there is nowhere near such a large amount of emphasis placed on polygraphs and their results.
:moo:

 

[The Cheese]

Exactly. Somewhere between 14 and 28 dives.

how are you getting 28 dives? what am I missing? tia

Not 28 dives - somewhere between 14 and 28 dives. It actually could have been more than 28 if each diver went down more than twice a day, but I didn't bother with that.

I explained the numbers in my posts above. The divers can go down every 8 hours. (link in my post above).

They had 7 divers (I posted the link towards the end of the Search thread).

The dive lasted 2 days. (I don't have a link for this. If anyone doesn't know the dive was 2 days, please let me know, and I'll provide a link.)

So 7 divers times 2 days = 7 x 2 = 14 dives if they each dove once each day.

7 divers times 2 dives in a day times 2 days = 7 x 2 x 2 = 28 dives if they each dove twice a day.

Therefore somewhere between 14 and 28 dives. Maybe 14 dives. Maybe 15 dives. Maybe 18 dives. Maybe 23 dives. Maybe 28 dives. Somewhere between 14 and 28 dives.

I'm no math whiz, so if my math is wrong, please someone post the correct math. Thanks.

 

[The Cheese]

Yet IIRC he was ridiculed from the outset - and you wouldn't have to search too far even now to read wisecracks about the hispanic hiding in the bushes. I have figured that public perception could have played a role in his withdrawal from the case. He was definitely not portrayed as being an asset to the case originally.
I had no idea that when you engaged a PI you were compelled to undergo a polygraph at their insistence? I'm realising that this must really be a cultural difference, as here there is nowhere near such a large amount of emphasis placed on polygraphs and their results.
:moo:

I wonder if he really did ask him to take a poly, or if he's just saying that maybe because he read all the insulting and vile things that have been stated about him, and he's trying to get out from under that. If so, it seems to be working.

But I have to ask - I've seen it said by mods in other cases that discussing comments on news articles isn't allowed. I can't remember after all these threads if the mods have said it here in Dylan's case. Are we allowed to discuss news article comments? I really don't want to get in trouble. If we're not, I'll delete this post.

 

[RANCH]

I feel that no searches of any kind will take place without new information, as far as LE is concerned.

LE seems pretty confident that there is no reason to search the lake again. I hope that their right and Dylan is alive somewhere waiting to be found.

I would like to hear more about the family sponsored search of the lake. It was said that once the lake thawed it was going to happen. Then it's maybe mid-May. I'm not sure why this lake search has to be so secret.

If the family has a qualified search organization lined up why don't they let us know who they are and when they can search. MOO.

 

[NC Analyzer]

<modsnip>

<modsnip>, it would be impossible for 7 divers to go into the water 2x in a day if they had to wait 8 hours between dives...unless you somehow believe these divers worked more than a 8-9 hour day. Your math is simply incorrect.

Diver 1 enters water at 8 am, surfaces 8:30 am Cannot re-enter the water until 4:30 pm
Diver 2 enters water at 8:30 am, surfaces at 9:00 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 5:00 pm
Diver 3 enters the water at 9:00 am, surfaces at 9:30 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 5:30 pm.
Diver 4 enters the water at 9:30 am, surfaces at 10:00 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 6:00 pm.
Diver 5 enters the water at 10:00 am, surfaces at 10:30 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 6:30 pm.
Diver 6 enters the water at 10:30 am, surfaces at 11:00 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 7:00 pm.
Diver 7 enters the water at 11:00 am, surfaces at 11:30 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 7:30 pm.

Flaws:
The dives would not take place in rapid succession as I exampled.
The dives were shown to be in pairs, per video: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/26/dylan-redwine-missing-off_n_2192407.html
Dives would not take place after dark. Reported to be approx 5 pm at that time of year.

Conclusion:
Maximum number of dives achieved in one day, 7 (possibly 8). No possibility there were 28 dives completed in a 2 day period.

ETA: Probably fewer than 10 dives total over 2 days when considering they dove in pairs. Safety first!

 

[cluciano63]

LE seems pretty confident that there is no reason to search the lake again. I hope that their right and Dylan is alive somewhere waiting to be found.

I would like to hear more about the family sponsored search of the lake. It was said that once the lake thawed it was going to happen. Then it's maybe mid-May. I'm not sure why this lake search has to be so secret.

If the family has a qualified search organization lined up why don't they let us know who they are and when they can search. MOO.

But Dylan (perhaps) not being in the lake does not equal Dylan being alive somewhere (incredibly unlikely, IMO ) and LE surely does not hold out hope for this result as a reason for not searching. The reason for searches ceasing after the initial weeks or months is simply because without tips or clues, no area is more likely than any other to produce results, it would be like shooting a dart at a map, basically, to decide where to search.

Searches are always dangerous, costly, and time-consuming and LE just won't/can't continue indefinitely.

As far as the date(s) for the upcoming lake search, the family may not be able to get a confirmed date. They may not even know for sure which group will be the one available to come as soon as it is possible.

AzGrandma, do you have any details or info on what the family is being told by these search teams?

 

[NC Analyzer]

LE seems pretty confident that there is no reason to search the lake again. I hope that their right and Dylan is alive somewhere waiting to be found.

I would like to hear more about the family sponsored search of the lake. It was said that once the lake thawed it was going to happen. Then it's maybe mid-May. I'm not sure why this lake search has to be so secret.

If the family has a qualified search organization lined up why don't they let us know who they are and when they can search. MOO.

Considering the abuse this poor mother has been subjected to? Elaine, Mike and Cory have made it perfectly clear they want the public to respect their privacy. The search isn't intended to be a spectator sport and they simply don't want to share that information. I completely understand their perspective and I don't blame them one bit. It doesn't appear they are getting much assistance from LE, so why would they bother letting anyone know their plans or who will be conducting the search?

 

[KateNY]

Photo gallery at this link shows, some divers out there in pairs, and then looks like those closer to shore, are on a safety line

would think..JMO, that those not on a line would be in pairs, for safety reasons..


pic
http://www.durangoherald.com/apps/p...NEWS01&ArtNo=112609999&Ref=PH&Item=7&MaxH=400

gallery
http://www.durangoherald.com/apps/p...NEWS01&ArtNo=112609999&Ref=PH&Item=7&MaxH=400

 

[dlc]

Yes, unfortunately, it would be impossible for 7 divers to go into the water 2x in a day if they had to wait 8 hours between dives...unless you somehow believe these divers worked more than a 8-9 hour day. Your math is simply incorrect.

Diver 1 enters water at 8 am, surfaces 8:30 am Cannot re-enter the water until 4:30 pm
Diver 2 enters water at 8:30 am, surfaces at 9:00 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 5:00 pm
Diver 3 enters the water at 9:00 am, surfaces at 9:30 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 5:30 pm.
Diver 4 enters the water at 9:30 am, surfaces at 10:00 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 6:00 pm.
Diver 5 enters the water at 10:00 am, surfaces at 10:30 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 6:30 pm.
Diver 6 enters the water at 10:30 am, surfaces at 11:00 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 7:00 pm.
Diver 7 enters the water at 11:00 am, surfaces at 11:30 am. Cannot re-enter the water until 7:30 pm.

Flaws:
The dives would not take place in rapid succession as I exampled.
The dives were shown to be in pairs, per video: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/26/dylan-redwine-missing-off_n_2192407.html
Dives would not take place after dark. Reported to be approx 5 pm at that time of year.

Conclusion:
Maximum number of dives achieved in one day, 7 (possibly 8). No possibility there were 28 dives completed in a 2 day period.

ETA: Probably fewer than 10 dives total over 2 days when considering they dove in pairs. Safety first!

Thank you. I was going to do a chart, but just couldn't get my fingers to type it.

 

[The Cheese]

<modsnip>
They had 3 or 4 boats with 3 or 4 sonar systems. There's no reason more than one diver couldn't go down at a time, working more than one area at a time, off more than one boat.

SAR divers dive after dark all the time. I would agree in this instance they likely didn't, but they could.

I'm gonna keep on thinkin' somewhere between 14 and 28 dives was possible.

We'll have to agree to disagree, and move on.

 

[dlc]

LE seems pretty confident that there is no reason to search the lake again. I hope that their right and Dylan is alive somewhere waiting to be found.

I would like to hear more about the family sponsored search of the lake. It was said that once the lake thawed it was going to happen. Then it's maybe mid-May. I'm not sure why this lake search has to be so secret.

If the family has a qualified search organization lined up why don't they let us know who they are and when they can search. MOO.

I'm only speculating, but I would imagine that the group (ER and FMDR) organizing and funding the search is focusing less on "keeping it a secret" and more on protecting Dylan's dignity and privacy if he is indeed lying in that lake.

 

[dlc]

Sigh. Husband has another phone call, so here are some more 40 feet links.

• the dive team searched in about 40 feet of cold water http://durangoherald.com/article/20121125/NEWS01/121129707/Divers-search-reservoir
  
• The divers searched in about 40 feet of cold water http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/26/dylan-redwine-missing-off_n_2192407.html
  
• the lake’s depth — averaging 30 to 40 feet http://www.gazette.com/articles/thaw-153174-redwine-dylan.html#ixzz2R3jXf5Rq

Dear Cheese,

Thank you for these links.

I have found the following, among other sources:


BBM

http://www.eatstayplay.com/html/co/a2198p306c2053.html

which notes that:

Vallecito Reservoir is a scenic, high mountain reservoir built in 1941 and has 2,700 surface acres of water and 22.0 miles of shoreline. The mountain lake is approximately 167 feet deep at the dam and is at an elevation of 7,665 feet. It is a cold water lake with fishing and boating being the main activities.

As well as this:

http://4cornershikesdol.blogspot.com/2011/08/vallecito-lake-walk-path.html

which says:

There is a small parking area with a restroom and the Walk Path is clearly marked. The top of the dam elevation is about 7673 feet. The normal depth of water is 121.5 feet.


(BTW, for anyone interested, the second link has some good lake photos.)


Hopefully, these explain my interest in your sources. I'll check back for the other links tomorrow.

Thanks again.

 

[NC Analyzer]

There are several photo's of the dives. Links have been provided. This wasn't a "mass" dive. This was a controlled S & R dive team, using safety precautions. They weren't attempting to get the numbers. They were doing a professional dive in difficult conditions. It is what it is.