Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #10

[dixiegirl1035]

Today's WHO presser verified that it will be at 10 am Eastern. I'll put up the link in 45 minutes, about 9:45.

 

[JerseyGirl]

There are now 89 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in the United States.

This count included cases confirmed by the CDC as well as presumptive positive cases that have been confirmed through the US public health system of state and local health agencies, but are still pending CDC confirmation.

These include...

• 44 people who were aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship
• 3 people repatriated from China
• 42 US cases

The 42 US cases include:

16 in California
13 in Washington state (including 2 fatalities)
3 in Illinois
2 in Florida
2 in Oregon
2 in Rhode Island
1 in Massachusetts
1 in Wisconsin
1 in Arizona
1 in New York

There are at least 19 instances of possible community spread transmission, and at least four cases that have not been classified as either travel related or community spread.

Coronavirus live news: Global death toll tops 3,000 - CNN

 

[JaneEyre]

I highly doubt many will stay home from voting in the primaries because of this.

 

[Inthedetails]

I've got a protocol for conspiracy-theory outbreaks. First, scroll and roll. Then, active ignore function.

 

[What if...]

Thanks, Jane. Never heard of it, sounded fun until you explained

I don’t know about fun, but it often leads to a whole lot of drinking!! lol

 

[COSCitizen]

I highly doubt many will stay home from voting in the primaries because of this.

We have mail-in ballots. One of the ballot boxes is a half-mile from where I live.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

I don’t know about fun, but it often leads to a whole lot of drinking!! lol

Sounds marginally better! Over here we just vote based on whatever lies we've been told and end up sober but disappointed.

 

[cody22]

Happy Texas Independence Day to all. Pass the coffee and the breakfast burritos, please ?..........That is all for now. Thank you......moo

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

I highly doubt many will stay home from voting in the primaries because of this.

DH and I voted absentee weeks ago. Easy-peasy.

ETA: I didn't mean to imply that we would have voted tomorrow - Super Tuesday. Michigan's primary is next Tuesday, March 10, but absentee ballots were mailed weeks ago.

 

[Inthedetails]

Just to be "amusing," let's compare the list of cases in USA to Super Tuesday states:

The 42 US cases include:

16 in California - Super Tuesday State
1 in Massachusetts - Super Tuesday State
13 in Washington state (including 2 fatalities) - NOT Super Tuesday State
1 in Arizona - NOT Super Tuesday State
3 in Illinois - NOT Super Tuesday State
1 in Wisconsin - NOT Super Tuesday State
2 in Oregon - NOT Super Tuesday State
2 in Rhode Island - NOT Super Tuesday State
1 in New York - NOT Super Tuesday State
2 in Florida - NOT Super Tuesday State

So, of the 14 Super Tuesday states, 2 of them have cases.

I am quite confident that the voters in California and Massachusetts, where there are virus cases, will indeed show up for the primary tomorrow. (If they didn't plan to vote, they still won't. If they did plan to vote, they will be there.)

For the record, the 14 Super Tuesday states are CA, TX, NC, VA, MA, MN, CO, TN, AL, OK, AR, UT, ME, VT.

Super Tuesday will be Super Tuesday, imo.

This comparison for was "amusement" only - I know that WSers know the virus coverage is not any way connected to Super Tuesday.

Vote!

jmo

 

[Henry2326]

BMW has put about 150 employees under quarantine in Germany after one employee tested positive for coronavirus BMW quarantines 150 German employees after one worker tests positive for coronavirus
Coronavirus death toll tops 3,000

 

[What if...]

I agree this scholar is an outlier. I don't know when novel coronavirus (now COVID-19) first caught my attention, probably during the initial outbreaks, but I noted at the time that the new virus met a lot of the criteria for being the bug that epidemiologists have been running computer models on for decades. Very contagious, at least 5x (to take a conservative estimate) higher fatality rate than the seasonal flu, long latency, persistent on surfaces, immunologically naive populations...

Totally agree regarding “virus X”.

The only saving grace at this moment is the relatively low mortality rate. IF COVID-19 had the same mortality rate as MERS (34%), we would be having entirely different discussions here.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Sit closer to coffee source, BDE!

LOL! Truth be told, I had to pee, too Coffee does that to me

 

[Inthedetails]

UPDATE: The #COVID19 patient lives in Manhattan & had no symptoms upon arrival. She is a health care worker; she knew to take precautions & didn't take public transportation.
Remember this was not a question of if, but when. We are prepared. We can’t allow fear to outpace reason.

Andrew Cuomo on Twitter

I live in Manhattan - I'm not scared of this development and I thought it would've happened sooner, tbh.

I HOPE so much that things don't shut down here. When we were having major subway problems awhile back, I read the stat that 10% of our nation's economy relies on employees getting to work on the subway.

The entire country (and by extension, the world) needs the NYC subways running and people commuting on them.

jmo

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Just to be "amusing," let's compare the list of cases in USA to Super Tuesday states:

The 42 US cases include:

16 in California - Super Tuesday State
1 in Massachusetts - Super Tuesday State
13 in Washington state (including 2 fatalities) - NOT Super Tuesday State
1 in Arizona - NOT Super Tuesday State
3 in Illinois - NOT Super Tuesday State
1 in Wisconsin - NOT Super Tuesday State
2 in Oregon - NOT Super Tuesday State
2 in Rhode Island - NOT Super Tuesday State
1 in New York - NOT Super Tuesday State
2 in Florida - NOT Super Tuesday State

So, of the 14 Super Tuesday states, 2 of them have cases.

I am quite confident that the voters in California and Massachusetts, where there are virus cases, will indeed show up for the primary tomorrow. (If they didn't plan to vote, they still won't. If they did plan to vote, they will be there.)

For the record, the 14 Super Tuesday states are CA, TX, NC, VA, MA, MN, CO, TN, AL, OK, AR, UT, ME, VT.

Super Tuesday will be Super Tuesday, imo.

This comparison for was "amusement" only - I know that WSers know the virus coverage is not any way connected to Super Tuesday.

Vote!

jmo

MI doesn't vote tomorrow. Our primary is next Tuesday, March 10. DH and I voted absentee several weeks ago.

 

[Henry2326]

This is the math in the US...
Approx 74 million baby boomers...
15% get it....11 million people.
5% critical care or they die...550,000 this is actually on the low side of the current range...
We don't have that many critical care beds open.
Italy has this same problem right now

I don't know what scholars you are reading but the ones I'm reading are screaming at the top of their lungs for containment.

From an expert, that supports my concern...

Dr. L Nelson Sanchez-Pinto

I’m usually not an alarmist, but I am a numbers person, so here’s my take on the #COVIDー19 strain on our system in the US. (All back-of-the-envelope stuff, so I’m sorry if I offend my #epitwitter colleagues).
Alarmist thread

First some stats: we have ~100K critical care beds and about 70% being used routinely. We have ~75K ventilators and about 30%-40% being used concurrently in ICUs (sorry #anesthesia you have to bag-mask it for the time being). The seasonal flu infects about 20-30M per year.

Of all flu <1% are critically ill, and ~0.2% die. Now, based on the reports from Italy, which has a pretty good healthcare system, early on they have a critical illness rate ~10% and mortality ~2%. This is about a 10x from seasonal flu.

Let’s assume this is overblown as they may not be counting all mild cases. Say that these rates are more like 5% critically ill, 2% need ventilators, 1% die. And now lets assume this is spread out evenly over 12 weeks (unlikely, but bear with me) and most critical illness cases are resolved by 1 week (either your better and off a ventilator or you die). If #COVIDー19 has the HALF the rate of infection as seasonal flu, and it’s spread over 12 weeks, then we’d have 50K critically ill pts per week, easily occupying all ICU beds and using most of the “spare” ventilators (we’d run out of beds first).

L. Nelson Sanchez-Pinto, MD, MBI on Twitter

 

[Inthedetails]

MI doesn't vote tomorrow. Our primary is next Tuesday, March 10. DH and I voted absentee several weeks ago.

I didn't have MI listed - not sure if you're correcting me?

jmo

 

[gregjrichards]

Coronavirus hoax circulating that claims virus can be 'cured' with pepper soup

The hoax appears to have been started by a ‘spiritual activist’ from InksNation and is circulating on Twitter under the hashtag #CureForCoronaVirus

Coronavirus hoax circulating that claims virus can be 'cured' with pepper soup

 

[Herat]

And speaking of high-level medical resources that are scarce:

Chinese surgeons conduct first double-lung transplant on coronavirus patient to find new treatments | Daily Mail Online

This perplexes me, because the patient needs to be immunosuppressed to avoid transplant rejection. That would seem to contradict the point of the transplant

 

[Inthedetails]

And speaking of high-level medical resources that are scarce:

Chinese surgeons conduct first double-lung transplant on coronavirus patient to find new treatments | Daily Mail Online

This perplexes me, because the patient needs to be immunosuppressed to avoid transplant rejection. That would seem to contradict the point of the transplant

I had the same reaction! Not understanding that at all.

I had a relative receive a lung transplant. The lung worked - but he had to take massive anti-rejection drugs so his body wouldn't reject it. He didn't survive.

I guess they are doing experiments? Hope the Chinese patient gave consent. Rather confusing to me.

jmo