Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #12

[otto]

A few weeks ago, BC (Before COVID19) I bought a large bottle of hand sanitizer. I had a cold, and used this after I sneezed, and blew my nose at work.

Today, I was at Walmart, looking for hand sanitizer. None to be found, anywhere. Isn't that crazy? A few weeks ago, a full aisle of the stuff. Now, it is impossible to find.

I just checked Amazon, hand sanitizer is running about $200 a bottle.

That was on the news yesterday ... Amazon is the interface for a number of suppliers and some are over charging. Report it. Amazon says they don't allow that.

 

[What if...]

JMO
The one consistent and concerning thing that I have noticed in the new cities that are starting to report on their first couple cases. Is if the cases are advertised as a possible local transmission because the infected person had not traveled outside their country and authorities do not know how the person contracted it.......then the one consistent and concerning pattern is that the cities' number of confirmed cases seems to always start to go up pretty quickly. They dont always blow up into huge numbers but they definitely jump quickly from the initial 1/2 cases over to 6/10 cases, and then 10/15 cases, etc.

So I have pretty much assumed that when I hear a new city reporting on its first mystery source cases, I am pretty much assuming that that same city will be up to 5 or 10 cases or more in a relatively short time frame.

Its like their city officials start to really look closer for their cases and no-surprise, they find more cases that are out there to be confirmed.

So I am really concerned that when we hear of the numbers, it is sort of like an insect infestation in the home, where when you see 1, there is guaranteed to be 100 or more somewhere.

Excellent assessment! And I couldn’t agree more!!!

 

[PingTheRouter]

he will be okay in Melbourne.

i am in melbourne we are doing ok, its just idiots doing silly things with shopping and toilet paper bulk buying like incrediable amounts for no reason

by the weekend all the shelves will be fully stocked again

its actually been very quiet since feb for Corona virus here, its was more of a bigger deal like first week of feb

but i suspect that will change as more infection become announced

 

[margarita25]

I sent my son some Oz toilet paper memes as soon as he woke up, checking in to see if he was stocking up for "the big one."

Good to hear that respirators will be available in hospitals for the up to 20% who may require hospital care. I'm thinking that in a pandemic, it's probably best to have family sprawled across the planet to ensure optimal familial survival. I'm confident that he will be okay in Melbourne.

Appreciate the Australia updates!

“I'm thinking that in a pandemic, it's probably best to have family sprawled across the planet to ensure optimal familial survival.”

Wow....that is DEEP. Holy moly.

That was on the news yesterday ... Amazon is the interface for a number of suppliers and some are over charging. Report it. Amazon says they don't allow that.

I absolutely second this.

 

[Luckyzmom]

According to Amazon they are actively removing third party sellers that participate in price gouging. If you see this please report to Amazon.
eBay being eBay, prices are all over the place. And bidding is just nuts on some of these products. Masks are particularly CRAZY.
Many Thanks to you all, surely appreciate the info piling up here. Be well everyone

 

[Betty P]

Have an app't to see my oncologist Thursday. At a hospital. In a city with 20 cases. Sigh. If it was any other app't I would probably cancel but it's kinda important. At least I can ask him how paranoid he thinks I should be, as an immuno-compromised person.

Just wear some vinyl/nitrile gloves the whole time. They'll understand since you're a cancer patient, no biggie. When you leave, just toss them in the trash.

 

[otto]

@Amonet , I have to say that, to this point, I’m really disappointed in the handling of this whole thing by the US government. They seem to have dropped the ball early on, and they’re fumbling in their attempts to play catch up.

But otherwise, I have to totally agree that it’s really a no win situation for the various governments around the globe. I’m afraid that their chance to contain the small fires in an attempt to reduce the spread has unfortunately been missed (at least in several areas of the world - hopefully not all)

However, to the credit of those governing bodies, I never believed that containment would be successful - primarily due to the stealth mode in which COVID-19 operates. I think the only chance at containment would be a complete shutdown at the global level with insane levels of preemptive testing.
Neither of which would really be possible, and definitely not feasible.

Where we go from here is anyone’s guess...

How the virus is handled will very likely influence choices in the next governing bodies.

 

[otto]

“I'm thinking that in a pandemic, it's probably best to have family sprawled across the planet to ensure optimal familial survival.”

Wow....that is DEEP. Holy moly.

I absolutely second this.

When times are normal, families don't always fly on the same plane for the same reason - one plane goes down, don't want to wipe out the entire family.

 

[whitelilac]

Re: toilet paper madness
(sorry, can't resist)
seinfeild-s5e12-m7bYsQxHL1JmM

 

[Tripod]

I'm not as optimistic. We don't even know if our tests are reliable. Most countries are using the same test but the CDC developed it's own which was the one that was demonstrably unreliable when first sent out. So they changed the test to only look for 2 rather than the original 3 markers (also the # used by the rest of the world) which produces a less reliable result. And because the test was being developed under an Emergency provision which allowed it to go out before the required test period, and no one else could produce the tests under that law. They did just change that and are adding a few labs at a time as noted in the article below.

Anyway, just found the background here interesting and had previously been unaware of it.

Responding to Testing Problems, US FDA Expands Number of Labs That Can Test for COVID-19

Thanks for posting this article! Very interesting, indeed.

 

[otto]

Yep. I know all about that personally, moo.

I was picking up what you were throwing down for sure. I also heard you (iirc) refer to Darwin. I had also done that earlier.

—-

This is all rather heavy at the moment
(Understatement)

Not really. It's easy for us to wind each other up because we're all predisposed to being concerned about the uncontrolled spread of the virus. We would all like to know that we are wrong, that it is contained, controlled and a vaccine has been discovered.

Thing is, it's primarily deadly for 3.4% of the population. That's very small in the big picture. The rest survive.

It sounds like a painful, nasty illness that I'm guessing will shorten lifespans in general. If it's one wave, it kills one age group, if it's a second wave it many hit a different age group harder. Even if that happens, the mortality rate probably won't rise that much, maybe another 3.4%.

Imagine if everyone with hypertension, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, kidney disease and other similar illnesses was eliminated in a high tech environment that sequences DNA for stronger intelligent people.

 

[LaborDayRN]

A few weeks ago, BC (Before COVID19) I bought a large bottle of hand sanitizer. I had a cold, and used this after I sneezed, and blew my nose at work.

Today, I was at Walmart, looking for hand sanitizer. None to be found, anywhere. Isn't that crazy? A few weeks ago, a full aisle of the stuff. Now, it is impossible to find.

I just checked Amazon, hand sanitizer is running about $200 a bottle.

Washing hands for 20 seconds or more and being sure to get under the nails and around the cuticles (with a soft brush or toothbrush if you have one) is best. When no water is available hand sanitizer is also very important.

If you can get some Aloe Vera gel and Alcohol here is a basic hand sanitizer recipe:

Hand Sanitizer Gel Recipe

• 2/3 cup 60% or greater strength rubbing alcohol (isopropyl alcohol) or ethanol
• 1/3 cup plain aloe vera gel
• bowl
• spatula
• funnel
• plastic bottle with pump or squirt top. You can use an old soap pump bottle
• Mix it up and put it in a bottle. You're good to go!

 

[Lilibet]

<snipped for focus>But otherwise, I have to totally agree that it’s really a no win situation for the various governments around the globe. I’m afraid that their chance to contain the small fires in an attempt to reduce the spread has unfortunately been missed (at least in several areas of the world - hopefully not all)

However, to the credit of those governing bodies, I never believed that containment would be successful - primarily due to the stealth mode in which COVID-19 operates. I think the only chance at containment would be a complete shutdown at the global level with insane levels of preemptive testing.
Neither of which would really be possible, and definitely not feasible.

Where we go from here is anyone’s guess...

BBM

Excellent post, illustrating the huge difficulties governments face trying to stop the spread of COVID-19...really a no win situation. It will keep spreading...until it doesn’t.

You say “Where we go from here is anyone’s guess...” Here’s my guess or hope. Rather than focusing on containment, I would like to see governments put their energy and expertise into prevention and treatment.

Prevention involves preventing/minimizing the spread in communities by common sense sanitation as we’ve discussed here. Limiting large group gatherings for now might help too. I honestly don’t think getting people to cooperate with isolation is going to work well. Many will just not admit that they’ve been exposed or even know before they’ve infected others...such as WA state. So we really have to be diligent about protecting ourselves individually and isolate for our own protection if necessary. For the most vulnerable among us, in assisted living and nursing homes, those protective efforts will have to be done by their poorly paid carers.

But many of us will still get sick, and the government must be prepared to deal with treatment, taking the lead in advising hospitals and helping them get equipment and supplies AND protect their staff...if lots of health care workers get sick, all bets are off.

Even in a best case scenario, some will die. That’s just a fact. But I think prevention and treatment can minimize that...I hope. So for now, I really don’t think we can expect the government to successfully contain this. The government is going to make a lot of well-publicized decisions so that we think they are going to contain it and we will feel safe. But “safety” by containment is an illusion IMO. That horse/germ has left the stable! Instead I think they need to be transparent and “alarmist” in the sense of educating their citizens in prevention and really revving up treatment so that more of those infected survive. Or, if they don’t do this, we need to educate ourselves as we are doing here, support each other and hope for the best.
All JMO

 

[What if...]

Wow! Finally caught up!!
(though I’m sure I missed a few pages along the way)

This thread has done worn me out today! lol

And I’m with you @margarita25 - this is all starting to feel like a surreal dream/nightmare!!

I think that the fact that most of us on this thread have a solid understanding of the reality that’s heading our way just isn’t realized yet by the majority around us. Every time I step away from this thread for any extended period of time, I find myself having to reaffirm what’s taking place as the majority around me don’t truly realize the scope of what’s on our doorstep.
Now don’t get me wrong, they’re definitely starting to buy up all the toilet paper! But the emotion behind it all hasn’t been much different than preparing for a winter storm.

Ignorance? Denial? I’m not sure... but I do know that the majority of the people in this country are about to find themselves in shock - and more than likely, panic will rapidly follow.

I have to admit though.... I’m still hoping that the majority end up being right and that I can just rejoice in knowing that I’ll have an extremely clean bum for the foreseeable future!

 

[LaborDayRN]

Reposting because it's such good information.

 

[Pi Thoughts]

Australia - University of Queensland virologist Ian Mackay has written an informative blog on COVID-19.

So you think you're about to be in a pandemic?

 

[otto]

Washing hands for 20 seconds or more and being sure to get under the nails and around the cuticles (with a soft brush or toothbrush if you have one) is best. When no water is available hand sanitizer is also very important.

If you can get some Aloe Vera gel and Alcohol here is a basic hand sanitizer recipe:

Hand Sanitizer Gel Recipe

• 2/3 cup 60% or greater strength rubbing alcohol (isopropyl alcohol) or ethanol
• 1/3 cup plain aloe vera gel
• bowl
• spatula
• funnel
• plastic bottle with pump or squirt top. You can use an old soap pump bottle
• Mix it up and put it in a bottle. You're good to go!

What if there's no rubbing alcohol, does vodka work? Anything stronger than 60% alcohol level?

Vinegar has always been know for cleaning properties. Is that useful with this virus?

 

[otto]

Wow! Finally caught up!!
(though I’m sure I missed a few pages along the way)

This thread has done worn me out today! lol

And I’m with you @margarita25 - this is all starting to feel like a surreal dream/nightmare!!

I think that the fact that most of us on this thread have a solid understanding of the reality that’s heading our way just isn’t realized yet by the majority around us. Every time I step away from this thread for any extended period of time, I find myself having to reaffirm what’s taking place as the majority around me don’t truly realize the scope of what’s on our doorstep.
Now don’t get me wrong, they’re definitely starting to buy up all the toilet paper! But the emotion behind it all hasn’t been much different than preparing for a winter storm.

Ignorance? Denial? I’m not sure... but I do know that the majority of the people in this country are about to find themselves in shock - and more than likely, panic will rapidly follow.

I have to admit though.... I’m still hoping that the majority end up being right and that I can just rejoice in knowing that I’ll have an extremely clean bum for the foreseeable future!

Even here we have to question whether we're preparing for 2 weeks or 3 months, and on what day we should stop going out.

If there is panic, it will probably be followed by people self-isolating, sick people calling in for help, and some sick people wandering around in the shops because they feel fine. Sick people who call in for help will be met by hazmat suits, hopefully, tested, and told to isolate until results are returned. They'll then be told to continue to self-isolate until it's more urgent. Some people will miss the window and die at home. That's what has happened in China, why would it be any different in another part of the world.

 

[firebird]

Washing hands for 20 seconds or more and being sure to get under the nails and around the cuticles (with a soft brush or toothbrush if you have one) is best. When no water is available hand sanitizer is also very important.

If you can get some Aloe Vera gel and Alcohol here is a basic hand sanitizer recipe:

Hand Sanitizer Gel Recipe

• 2/3 cup 60% or greater strength rubbing alcohol (isopropyl alcohol) or ethanol
• 1/3 cup plain aloe vera gel
• bowl
• spatula
• funnel
• plastic bottle with pump or squirt top. You can use an old soap pump bottle
• Mix it up and put it in a bottle. You're good to go!

I'm gonna go out on another unpopular limb here and say the scourge of our current health issues is the overuse of hand sanitizer/germicides. I've never ever used them. Neither have my kids. You can't develop immunity without exposure. None of my kids have been seriously ill or to the doctor since they had to for shots and baby illnesses. And I had cancer as a teenager but have never been seriously ill since then. They may be marginally useful in the case of a new virus, but overall a HUGE detriment imo.

 

[otto]

Australia - University of Queensland virologist Ian Mackay has written an informative blog on COVID-19.

So you think you're about to be in a pandemic?

From your link:

"This post is based on the assumption that a pandemic will occur at some point and that Wave 1 will impact us, wherever we live, in the coming weeks and months.

We don’t know for certain how severe a COVID-19 pandemic will be. We may be able to assume it’s a mild or perhaps moderate pandemic, not a severe one, according to definitions in the Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza scenarios.[4] But we won’t know for sure until we see spread in countries that ask questions, define cases, and test for SARS-CoV-2 in the same way that we do."​

So you think you're about to be in a pandemic?