Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #16

[Henry2326]

A world-famous microbiologist who helped discover Ebola has warned that coronavirus will be at its worst at Easter - and the outbreak will continue for several months.

Dr Peter Piot is convinced that thousands of people in Britain already have the deadly virus, and the number of people diagnosed will rise sharply.

The worst could come next month, he warned, with a peak expected around Easter.

In an interview with The Times the respected scientist said the disease could also make a return next winter - meaning it is hugely important to develop a vaccine.

He said: "We've got a reasonable worst-case scenario... that involves 80% of the population and we think the mortality rate is one per cent or lower. I expect it to be less than that.

"It takes about 12 weeks to reach the peak then maybe about 12 weeks to go away again.

Coronavirus UK outbreak to 'peak at Easter bringing six months of chaos'

 

[Only4Justice]

The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services said that as of March 5, 406 cases were referred for assessment and/or monitoring, to date (This includes referrals from CDC airport quarantine stations, self-referrals, close contacts of pending PUIs and healthcare provider referrals entered by local health departments), and 16 tests have been approved in total, to date. 82 are being actively monitored.

All eight of those tests (1 Allegan, 2 Macomb, 2 Oakland, 2 Washtenaw, 1 out of state) were negative for the new coronavirus. The other eight tests have pending results.

There are currently zero confirmed coronavirus cases in Michigan, as of March 7.

Coronavirus: Latest testing, monitoring numbers in Michigan

that’s good to know! Thanks

 

[Mo Thuairim]

Interesting info on testing in the US.

I Lived Through SARS and Reported on Ebola. These Are the Questions We Should Be Asking About Coronavirus.

<snip>
Lifting restrictions on testing criteria is a much-needed step, but if your takeaway was that hundreds of thousands of Americans will be able to walk into doctors’ offices by Friday and immediately get tested, you’d be wrong.


It doesn’t matter if boxes upon boxes of kits are available if labs are struggling to set up the tests or are short on staff to run them. At the end of the day, what I want to know (and I imagine, what everyone wants to know) is how many people can be tested. That’s the unit that I am pressing public health officials and lab directors for when I interview them.

Here are some basics that may be useful to keep in mind: The CDC test kits can be thought of somewhat like a Blue Apron meal kit; there’s some assembly required before a lab can begin testing. It’s not like a protein bar, ready to eat straight out of the wrapper.

As of Wednesday, the Association of Public Health Laboratories, which represents public health labs across the United States, told me that each CDC test kit can run about 700 specimens. Note the “about” — you might have heard that each CDC test kit can run 1,000 specimens. That’s also true, but labs use up a certain amount of material in the process of setting up the kit and also to ensure that all the results from actual patient samples are accurate. So that’s where the “about 700” number is coming from.

None of those numbers, so far, are in units of what I care about — patients. We’re still talking about samples and specimens. APHL says the labs are running two specimens per patient, to double-check the result. So that means you actually can only test 350 people per kit.

... More at the link
I Lived Through SARS and Reported on Ebola. These Are the Questions We Should Be Asking About Coronavirus. — ProPublica

 

[Henry2326]

Jake Glanville from Pandemic show on Netflix
Jacob Glanville on Twitter

Comparing two estimates: #California 03/07/20: about 100 #COVID19 cases confirmed. Estimate #1: Assuming 20% of cases are severe enough to seek treatment, and 25% of such cases were actually tested at hospitals, I estimate 2000 infected people in the state.

Estimate #2: given #COVID19 R0=2.5, a 6 day infection cycle, spreading beginning around same time as DNA estimated Seattle cases of 7-weeks ago, we would have 669 cases from a single individual, and 1043 if we had one new spreader arrive per week until Chinese air travel ceased.

If you have 2 new spreaders arrive per week for those first three weeks, the estimates are comparable. Multiple issues with both estimates, but they arrive within a half log of same answer. Thoughts?

Why model this? To form projections. Given 1000 infected now, we will have 2500 by end of week, 6250 by the 20th, 15,625 by the 26th, and 39,062 infected by April 1st. #California has 430 hospitals but with 20% of #COVID19 patients needing care, we may run out of ICU in April.

 

[Inthedetails]

The 36-year old Nebraska woman with the virus started out with mild symptoms that developed into a serious condition. She is being treated in an Omaha hospital that has a world-renown Biocontainment Unit, where another virus patient also is being treated.

Interesting info and photo at the link:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/heres...tals-if-youre-a-nebraska-coronavirus-patient/

 

[Henry2326]

Just-in: 11 of 14 makeshift hospitals erected in #Wuhan City, Hubei Province, have been closed by Sunday. Some 100 #coronavirus patients are remaining in the left 3 hospitals. Wuhan authorities plan to close all of them in a day or two. Global Times on Twitter

 

[Inthedetails]

Just-in: 11 of 14 makeshift hospitals erected in #Wuhan City, Hubei Province, have been closed by Sunday. Some 100 #coronavirus patients are remaining in the left 3 hospitals. Wuhan authorities plan to close all of them in a day or two. Global Times on Twitter

Seems like when a downturn in the number of cases happens, it happens remarkably fast?

jmo

 

[Henry2326]

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia puts Qatif in Eastern Province on lockdown due to coronavirus - SPA

BNO Newsroom on Twitter

Saudi government announcement:
- Entry and exit from Qatif is suspended
- Residents who live in the area are allowed to return home
- Government departments and non-essential businesses in the area are closed

 

[Henry2326]

Seems like when a downturn in the number of cases happens, it happens remarkably fast?

jmo

Yep....same as the upturn.....I dread it here....if I could fast forward the next 8 months,......

 

[JerseyGirl]

Tesco rations basic shopping items

Tesco, UK’s largest grocer, has begun rationing essential food and household items as a result of coronavirus panic buying.

It is limiting the amount of antibacterial gels, wipes and sprays, dry pasta, UHT milk and some tinned vegetables to five items per customer.

 

[Inthedetails]

Yep....same as the upturn.....I dread it here....if I could fast forward the next 8 months,......

I just hope people don't think that because it's likely the virus will dissipate in a few months, we don't need to allocate resources (or compassion) for people who are dealing with it now.

jmo

 

[JerseyGirl]

Authorities have banned activities in Romania involving more than 1,000 people.

The restrictions come into force today and are valid until March 31, when a new assessment will be made. The number of confirmed cases in the country is 13.

Raed Arafat, Romania’s secretary of state, reiterated a call to Romanians in Italy not to come home for a holiday period if they are in risk areas.

Coronavirus live updates: Italian PM signs lockdown decree affecting millions in north

 

[Henry2326]

I just hope people don't think that because it's likely the virus will dissipate in a few months, we don't need to allocate resources (or compassion) for people who are dealing with it now.

jmo

No worries....IMO....most think it's all an exaggeration made up by the media.....seriously.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Travel chaos erupts as Italy quarantines north to halt virus

Bahrain said its Formula One race this month will take place without spectators over virus fears.

Japan's time-honored grand sumo tournament opened Sunday in Osaka to no fans and wrestlers arrived wearing face masks.

 

[Only4Justice]

Yesterday I went to visit a friend’s mom who is a resident in a memory care center. I ha d been visiting her twice a week for the past few months.

The receptionist stopped me as I walked into the lobby, saying that visitors had to fill out a new form each time they came in. The form asked if I had any symptoms, then she took my temperature.

Finally she asked if I had traveled “anywhere” in the past week. I told her I hadn’t been out of the country, and she asked if I had traveled outside of Indiana. I told her I had been in Ohio, and then she wasn’t going to allow me in! I pointed out that Ohio had no cases iv CV yet, but here in Indiana we had one case.

She had to ask the administrator if I could be allowed inside since I had traveled to Ohio. He had to call someone on the phone and ask, because he didn’t know.

After a conversation with the person on the phone he told me I would be allowed inside.

Good to know! Sorry for your inconvenience but thanks.

 

[Tillicum]

Since we're moving into allergy season I wonder if we should check our temperature daily now in order to get an idea of what our normal is. We aren't all 98.6 normally. Then if we have symptoms that could be from allergies or COVID-19, we'd be in a better position to know how much our temp is fluctuating from our true normal.

 

[Henry2326]

From Gov. Kemp: “I have learned that thirty-four Georgians and additional American citizens from the eastern United States who are currently on the Grand Princess cruise ship off the California coast will be securely transferred to Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Marietta, Georgia.”
Richard Elliot on Twitter

 

[Lilibet]

The Pandemic series on Netflix is accurate and just as scary.

Indeed it is. I’ve been promoting it on the thread ever since we watched it last weekend. It’s a must watch IMO.

 

[Henry2326]

I started off fairly sceptical in HK's social distancing. I wore masks, worked from home but wasn't sure how well it worked. It looks like I was wrong. More than half of HK's 109 reported coronavirus cases discharged and the regular flu season flattened Subscribe to read | Financial Times

Mike Bird on Twitter

 

[Henry2326]

I think we should all do this....stop the madness...

NEW: Malaysia bans the entry of all cruise ships due to outbreaks of coronavirus
BNO Newsroom on Twitter

UPDATE: India bans the entry of all cruise ships from a foreign destination due to coronavirus - ANI
BNO Newsroom on Twitter