Today's WHO situation report is out. Wasn't home to do today's meeting, if there was one
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...00219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6e50645_2
WHO is working with an international network of statisticians and mathematical modelers to estimate key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19, such as the incubation period (the time between infection and symptom onset), case fatality ratio (CFR, the proportion of cases that die), and the serial interval(the time between symptom onset of a primary and secondary case). Reports of current analyses that have estimated these parameters are provided in this Situation Report as a summary of currently available evidence. These values should be considered preliminary and parameters will likely be updated as more information becomes available. Modelling can support decision-making but needs to be combined with rigorous data collection and a comprehensive analysis of the situation. Please see the Subject in Focus section for more information.....
The confirmed case fatality ratio,or CFR,is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time.
Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Centerfor Disease Control and Prevention,9is 2.3%.....However, it is too early to draw conclusions as to whether there are real differences in the CFR inside and outside of China, as final outcome data (that is, who will recover and who will die) for the majority of cases reported from outside China are not yet known. .......
Modeling is a helpful tool to try to account for missed cases, such as those that are mild cases potentially missed in current surveillance activities, and the time lag between onset and death. Using an estimated number of total infections, the Infection Fatality Ratio can be calculated. This represents the fraction of all infections (both diagnosed and undiagnosed) that result in death.
Based on these available analyses, current IFR estimates10,11,12range from 0.3% to 1%. Without population-based serologic studies, it is not yet possible to know what proportion of the population has been infected with COVID-19. Modeling has also been used to estimate the impact of the 23 January, 2020 Wuhan travel ban on reducing transmission both inside and outside of China.13,14According to these models, travel restrictions alone are projected to have only a modest effect on the progression of the outbreak; they would need to be combined with other public health interventions, such as early case isolation, other forms of mobility restrictions, social distancing and population-level behavioral changes to be effective.
Visual below (Dear China.....) from report also. NOTE: Does not include 79 cases from Princess this am US time.
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