Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #8

[Tadpole12]

Canada
Ontario confirms new case of coronavirus in Toronto

"man in his 80's with a travel history to Egypt.
He arrived in the city on Feb. 20, and presented himself to the
Scarborough Health Network's General Hospital."

ETA مشاهدة فيلم Contagion (2011) مترجم HD اون لاين
Better Eng audio but subs

 

[otto]

Didn't the Chinese government state that the virus was a hoax? I think so. Authoritarian governments are most likely to deny the virus (China, Iran) and best likely to restrict and contain once they admit the problem.

In China, wasn't the whistleblower required to sign a statement stating that he lied and the virus was a hoax? Didn't he then die of the virus leaving behind a pregnant wife and infected parents?

Australia has announced a ban on travellers from Iran after the latest coronavirus figures given to authorities indicated a “very significant rise” of cases and the highest death rate outside of mainland China.

Federal health minister Greg Hunt on Saturday afternoon said the National Security Council had met and decided to lift the travel advisory for Iran to level four – “do not travel”.

This was as a consequence of the spread of coronavirus, the high death rate in Iran and the arrival in Australia of a case undetected upon a 63-year-old woman’s departure from Iran, Mr Hunt said.

He said from Sunday, March 1, any Australian citizens, permanent residents and their immediate family who have travelled to Iran will be required to strictly self-isolate, “consistent” with the decision made in relation to people who visited China.
Hospital staff claim coronavirus death toll in Iran has quadrupled

Iran mess up with infected government officials. On the plus side, replacing the Iran government with a younger generation would be good.

Canada evacuated two plane loads from China, said no to both a third Chinese evacuation request and an evacuation request from Iran. Sick people should stay put and recover, and citizenship should not be used as a reason to demand the right to travel to a part of the world with national health care.

At work, there was an announcement today restricting travel to China, Hong Kong, Japan, Iran, Italy, South Korea and Singapore. Anyone who is overseas is offered immediate assistance to return home. I'm guessing there's a time limit on that offer.

 

[whitelilac]

from BayouBelle_LA's post:

"Some experts believe the total number of coronavirus cases could be much higher than the records show, which would make the mortality rate lower than currently estimated."

Given that most (80%) do not require medical care, and have only mild symptoms, it's possible that there could be any number of people who have contracted the virus and not even be aware, believing that their headache and sniffles are just due to a cold...and not seek treatment at all.
Heck, I just came back home after three flights (within the US and thru LAX), and I'm sneezing on and off, have a headache, but I'm not concerned. What if...?

 

[gregjrichards]

New coronavirus infections in South Korea exceeded China’s for the third straight day, as both countries saw an increase in their daily case numbers on Saturday, with Seoul reporting 594 and Beijing announcing 427.

A further 47 new deaths were reported in China, bringing the total to 2,835. Mainland China has now recorded 79,251 infections, with 39,002 patients recovered. In South Korea, the total number of infections has reached 2,931.

Coronavirus: South Korea cases exceed China, where infections also rise

 

[otto]

It is encouraging that some have mild symptoms. I think the symptoms are worse in older people and those with other underlying health conditions and compromised immune systems.

"However, the study’s fatality rate — which was reached by dividing the total number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases — does vary from other calculations. Some experts believe the total number of coronavirus cases could be much higher than the records show, which would make the mortality rate lower than currently estimated."​

Yes, that is what people believe. If they are young and have no pre-existing health conditions, they will be fine with the virus. While it is likely true that the number of cases is under-reported because not all those with symptoms presented at hospital, it is also likely true that the many who were turned away were taken to the crematorium.

It's likely that there are more cases than reported and that there are more deaths than reported. It would be naive to think that immunity is a gift of youth. People of all ages are dying, not all with pre-existing conditions.

 

[OhioBlues]

Didn't the Chinese government state that the virus was a hoax? I think so. Authoritarian governments are most likely to deny the virus (China, Iran) and best likely to restrict and contain once they admit the problem.

In China, wasn't the whistleblower required to sign a statement stating that he lied and the virus was a hoax? Didn't he then die of the virus leaving behind a pregnant wife and infected parents?


Iran mess up with infected government officials. On the plus side, replacing the Iran government with a younger generation would be good.

Canada evacuated two plane loads from China, said no to both a third Chinese evacuation request and an evacuation request from Iran. Sick people should stay put and recover, and citizenship should not be used as a reason to demand the right to travel to a part of the world with national health care.

At work, there was an announcement today restricting travel to China, Hong Kong, Japan, Iran, Italy, South Korea and Singapore. Anyone who is overseas is offered immediate assistance to return home. I'm guessing there's a time limit on that offer.

Are you referring to the 29 year old Opthamologist that initially reported the virus in Wuhan?

He died from the virus and is now considered a hero (by Chinese citizens).

China To Investigate After Whistleblower Doctor Dies From Coronavirus

 

[margarita25]

Coronavirus Quarantine Survivor Keeps Coughing on TV

—-

Coronavirus outbreak: U.S. braces for rise in COVID-19 cases as WHO raises threat to "highest level" / 4 Hours Ago

 

[scandinavian girl]

I found hand sanitizer in my small grocery store and bleach in this backward town. I am wondering if I am one of few who knows about this but I do hope my fellow townies aren´t traveling as much and someone stops them doing so.

 

[Lilibet]

Wouldn't they take rural patients to the best equipped 'Main' hospitals for treatment with this virus?

I do know (in my area) that the Main hospital owns buildings (besides the main hospital) for just this reason. The other locations would handle the additional quarantined patients etc.

Sure. That’s what I’d expect them to do. The largest and best equipped hospital is one large building and it has mostly two-bed rooms. And they are the only one equipped for cardiac and trauma. So it’s just that I’m not sure how the quarantine works in that situation. One of the larger hospitals has only single rooms, so that could work if there were no more than 138 needing care and isolation. It just depends on how many people are sick at once. I enjoy running scenarios, but I’m glad I’m not the one who has to come up with the real deal.

 

[OhioBlues]

I found hand sanitizer in my small grocery store and bleach in this backward town. I am wondering if I am one of few who knows about this but I do hope my fellow townies aren´t traveling as much and someone stops them doing so.

It sort of sucks IMO that people (even in my own house) aren't taking this seriously.

It's not difficult to wash your hands frequently. That might not prevent it 100% but it absolutely lowers the odds.

 

[gitana1]

Coronavirus Quarantine Survivor Keeps Coughing on TV

—-

Coronavirus outbreak: U.S. braces for rise in COVID-19 cases as WHO raises threat to "highest level" / 4 Hours Ago

The first video has the epidemiologist from Pandemic on Netflix, I think. She estimates 40-60-% of Americans will get it but for most it will be mild.

 

[margarita25]

Random late night musing:

As we see markets plunge, I’m lso thinking about, conversely, the companies and industries that actually see huge profits as a result of this. Just thinking about this “imbalance”...I’m sure companies like Clorox and Lysol aren’t doing too badly right about now.

 

[otto]

Are you referring to the 29 year old Opthamologist that initially reported the virus in Wuhan?

He died from the virus and is now considered a hero (by Chinese citizens).

China To Investigate After Whistleblower Doctor Dies From Coronavirus

Yes, a man with a pregnant wife announced a possible epidemic. He was forced to sign documents retracting the statement, died of the virus and his parents were already infected a couple of week ago.

All health care workers in China who die of the virus will be deemed martres. That does little good when you are dead.

 

[otto]

Coronavirus Quarantine Survivor Keeps Coughing on TV

Coronavirus outbreak: U.S. braces for rise in COVID-19 cases as WHO raises threat to "highest level" / 4 Hours Ago

Great. The states is bracing for a rise in numbers, unusable tests were distributed, and some places have not been tested (Maui).

Are survivors cured, or no longer mortally ill?

 

[EstrellaEspectral]

Cancelled my plans tonight due to Coronavirus case in a place I’m connected to through work (third party). How the heck did this come so fast? I thought I would have at least a few weeks before worrying.

It’s in the US, folks.

I doubt I’m sick, but I’m taking precautions regardless and avoiding close contact with the public until the public officials do their work this weekend.

Am I being ridiculous? I kinda feel like I’m being overly cautious.

 

[margarita25]

Watching closely - I’m afraid these three locations are going to reflect what we see pretty much everywhere in the world that has any level of population density.

You have to love the persistent optimism of the WHO and the CDC, but as far as I’m concerned, that “window of opportunity” slammed shut about the same day Hubei went on lockdown.

I’ve said it before.... You can’t stop it if you can’t see it coming!!!

All MOO....

I’m thinking a lot about, as you mentioned above, “population density”. I’m all over the place right now but have one window open on “disease mapping” in Singapore ( @otto ).

Anyway, I’m watching different YT videos (as usual), and noticing the number of infected of cases as they appear in intervals, in their own respective countries.

For example, S. Korea mentions their first case on Jan. 31 (iirc, need to go back and double check that), then their numbers spike about Feb. 16, iirc. There’s a video that talks about this, noting to post link.

However, it’s hard to draw comparisons jmo because different countries have different dynamics, whether they be related to testing kits, containment, health care, population, many factors.

But I’m just thinking about this as relating to California, and other states and countries, that if we look at the time intervals of exposure to infection as related to the different clusters we know about...

Bottom line - as I said earlier, I wonder what will things look like in 7, 14, and 21 days from now. What will things look in 2 to 3 weeks?

——

I’m trying to pull today’s WHO PC transcript (link error / page not found thing going on all day with that so hopefully that’ll be fixed soon), but today they talked about the containment measures that seem to be helping in China.

There’s a whole segment of discussion re: “containment and/vs. mitigation”...

Oh my head too much input. Need more coffee.

 

[otto]

I found hand sanitizer in my small grocery store and bleach in this backward town. I am wondering if I am one of few who knows about this but I do hope my fellow townies aren´t traveling as much and someone stops them doing so.

I was a bit taken aback by the suggestion that people from infected areas in Italy might travel to Switzerland because they believed they were not infected. That's how the virus has moved - people trying to escape infected areas and infecting people in other areas.

The incubation period is 2-5 days and up to 14 days for most people. Some people do not show symptoms for up to 20 days. Perhaps they're super healthy in the beginning. In any case, when people are in an infected area, it's foolish to transport them to uninfected areas - regardless of citizenship borders.

 

[OhioBlues]

I was a bit taken aback by the suggestion that people from infected areas in Italy might travel to Switzerland because they believed they were not infected. That's how the virus has moved - people trying to escape infected areas and infecting people in other areas.

The incubation period is 2-5 days and up to 14 days for most people. Some people do not show symptoms for up to 20 days. Perhaps they're super healthy in the beginning. In any case, when people are in an infected area, it's foolish to transport them to uninfected areas - regardless of citizenship borders.

Shouldn't the incubation period be longer than 14 days if symptoms don't show for up to 20 days?

I have noticed people 'out of quarantine' and they are giving interviews when they appear to be unwell but they are travelling in planes, TV locations etc.

Why?

 

[otto]

I’m thinking a lot about, as you mentioned above, “population density”. I’m all over the place right now but have one window open on “disease mapping” in Singapore ( @otto ).

Anyway, I’m watching different YT videos (as usual), and noticing the number of infected of cases as they appear in intervals, in their own respective countries.

For example, Korea mentions their first case on Jan. 31 (iirc, need to go back and double check that), then their numbers or spike on Feb. 16, iirc.

It’s hard to draw comparisons because different countries have different dynamics, whether they be related to testing kits, containment, health care, etc.

But I’m just thinking about this as relating to California, and other dates and countries, that if we look at the time intervals of exposure to infection...

Bottom line - as I said earlier, what will things look like in 7, 14, and 21 days from now.

——

I’m trying to pull today’s WHO PC transcript (CDC has a link error page not found thing going on all day with that so hopefully that’ll be fixed soon), but today they talk about the containment measures that seem to be helping, there’s a whole section of discussion on “containment and mitigation”...

Oh my head too much input. Need more coffee.

With all this climate trouble and fossil fuels, the flip side of the coin is reduced population.

On Jan 30, South Korea had 4 cases, nothing to worry about. On Feb 28, they had 2400 cases.

Regarding different countries, it seems like the question is containment or epidemic. Italy was caught off guard and quarantined 11 or 12 towns near Milan as soon as they were aware. Most countries in Europe and NA are containing.

Iran is lying. There are more deaths in late reporting Iran than any country other than China.

 

[margarita25]

Shouldn't the incubation period be longer than 14 days if symptoms don't show for up to 20 days?

I have noticed people 'out of quarantine' and they are giving interviews when they appear to be unwell but they are travelling in planes, TV locations etc.

Why?

I know what you mean. We’ve all been worried/discussing similar thoughts, especially as related to certain instances, Japan, etc moo.

In one of the recent WHO PCs, (maybe yesterday’s), a reporter asks about the possibility of longer incubation periods, iirc. Iirc moo they said something along the lines that they are aware of these reports and still studying and investigating all this, but 14 days seems to be the agreed upon number for now as far as incubation goes, moo. As for symptoms after that, this certainly requires more discussion, because Dr. Mike has clearly stated “it is NOT asymptomatic transmission driving this epidemic.”

ETA:

Earlier I wanted to say that a safe measure for quarantine IMO may be: