Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #37

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Not sure what to make of this.. need to look into

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential deathtoll on Wednesday.

Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

ETA: I read back and saw other posts..
 
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Auntie Cipation said:
Ack. Sky Lakes in Klamath Falls is one of the main healthcare providers for my area, for any medical needs more specialized than what our very small local hospitals can provide. I've been there myself, several years ago when I needed a dermatologist to have a suspicious mole removed. I wonder which field this healthcare worker was in.
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I wonder too, but of course we will never know more than this:

The employee works at a facility separate from the primary medical center and Emergency Department, Sky Lakes said.
 
dixiegirl1035 said:
Not sure what to make of this.. need to look into

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential deathtoll on Wednesday.

Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
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He walked this back a bit in an interview posted a few pages ago that I’m too lazy to go find.

ETA: Found it! Post by Henry. :)

Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #37
 
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KALI said:
On a happy note, our little, 70 seat restaurant in California is receiving so much support!
I sent an email blast out today, asking our community to support all small businesses here.
Mentioning, that it's good for our community as a whole to receive support, through these times, so our small businesses can still be there in the future.
Not only did our customers show up for to go orders, but, some brought bags and bags of fruit.
We have bags, of lemons, oranges and grapefruit all over our kitchen.
Yes, we live in an agricultural town.
Believe it or not, San Diego, California, is much more then our downtown area.
Both Mr. KALI and I, are so grateful.
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This is wonderful news Kali! It sounds like you have a very thoughtful customer base!
 
My friend who is a nurse at our small local hospital here in Southern Oregon was shocked when her 70ish mother in the next county casually told her on the phone tonight... “by the way, I was running a fever, coughing and had some trouble breathing last night.” :eek: Her doctor decided she should be seen, so we’ll see what happens. Of course my friend can’t go to her since she’s on the front lines, so here’s hoping it isn’t COVID-19.
 
Alathea said:
One would have to be completely ignorant to think any area of the country right now is anything OTHER than high risk. ANYWHERE.
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Sounds like a decent plan to me. I don't think all the nation's public health leaders and scientists, working in conjunction, will be at all ignorant of their locale's situations. I'm certain Dr. Birx, Fauci and many others will be working on this.
 
Glad the government announced they were making a deal where the manufacturer still had to retool the plant (on govt's dime) on a promise for delivery of 20,000 ventilators in short turnaround when 7,500 could not be guaranteed. GM isn't the only game in town -- split this contract up to best achieve the delivery of product asap. MOO

After Considering $1 Billion Price Tag for Ventilators, White House Has Second Thoughts

March 26, 2020

WASHINGTON — The White House had been preparing to reveal on Wednesday a joint venture between General Motors and Ventec Life Systems that would allow for the production of as many as 80,000 desperately needed ventilators to respond to an escalating pandemic when word suddenly came down that the announcement was off.

[..]

That price tag was more than $1 billion, with several hundred million dollars to be paid upfront to General Motors to retool a car parts plant in Kokomo, Ind., where the ventilators would be made with Ventec’s technology.

Government officials said that the deal might still happen but that they are examining at least a dozen other proposals. And they contend that an initial promise that the joint venture could turn out 20,000 ventilators in short order had shrunk to 7,500, with even that number in doubt. Longtime emergency managers at FEMA are working with military officials to sort through the competing offers and federal procurement rules while under pressure to give President Trump something to announce.
 
stattlich1 said:
First column is the date, then the next column is total infected reported in China, the last column is total dead. If true, then in the entire world we will likely NEVER see a high death rate from this virus. If these numbers are accurate, then either China has a miracle cure, or the things they've put in place ARE the miracle cure, or the virus plateaus and becomes hugely less deadly. This is the epicenter we're talking about here, heavily populated areas in cities as dense as, if not more than, anywhere in the world. And they only have 3,291 deaths? Being literally weeks, if not months ahead of the rest of the world in terms of the progression of this thing? C'mon.

[...]

03/24/20 81588 3281
03/25/20 81661 3285
03/26/20 81782 3291
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Are you saying that their death rate of 4% is suspicious to you? Is this number lower than what we see in other countries? I'm not sure what data you believe is squewed.

Do you feel a death rate of 4% is not high enough to take serious proactive measures to save lives?
 
Henry2326 said:
OMG....

Health care professionals have repeatedly refuted comments from a White House adviser suggesting that the media is overstating the need for personal protective equipment in hospitals amid the novel coronavirus pandemic. Doctors disagree with White House adviser's statement that media is hyping need for protective equipment - CNNPolitics

CNN on Twitter
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There is definitely conflicting info re: PPE. Even Andy Cuomo said today the hospitals in NYC are ok for now, but of course the supply absolutely needs replenishing.
New York Governor Cuomo Coronavirus News Conference | C-SPAN.org
I have definitely seen a few reports that have been questioned or debunked, so everyone, be very careful and always double and triple-check things, if you can.
 
stattlich1 said:
If China's numbers are accurate, I'll eat my keyboard.

The Communist Chinese don't have a stellar record for being honest, in particular, when it comes to things that will make them look bad.

Anyway, if I ASSUME the Chinese numbers are accurate, then, as I've stated before, we in Western Nations BETTER get a hold of whatever it is they have, because they've fundamentally, abruptly, stopped this virus in it's tracks.

Unless what we are seeing is that the virus peaks, then fades away to near nothing, as part of it's natural cycle.

Here's a little glimpse of data I've compiled, data comes from the Johns Hopkins website.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

First column is the date, then the next column is total infected reported in China, the last column is total dead. If true, then in the entire world we will likely NEVER see a high death rate from this virus. If these numbers are accurate, then either China has a miracle cure, or the things they've put in place ARE the miracle cure, or the virus plateaus and becomes hugely less deadly. This is the epicenter we're talking about here, heavily populated areas in cities as dense as, if not more than, anywhere in the world. And they only have 3,291 deaths? Being literally weeks, if not months ahead of the rest of the world in terms of the progression of this thing? C'mon.

03/10/20 80756 3136
03/11/20 80967 3162
03/12/20 80932 3172
03/13/20 80932 3172
03/14/20 80973 3193
03/15/20 80995 3203
03/16/20 81020 3217
03/17/20 81053 3230
03/18/20 81102 3241
03/19/20 81154 3249
03/20/20 81250 3253
03/21/20 81303 3159
03/22/20 81394 3265
03/23/20 81454 3274
03/24/20 81588 3281
03/25/20 81661 3285
03/26/20 81782 3291
Click to expand...
Very Interesting, thank you , Stattlich. And also agree that their numbers are off, very likely by a long shot.
 
Henry2326 said:
Cuomo said this on March 24th...

We are not willing to sacrifice 1-2% of New Yorkers.
That’s not who we are.
We will fight to save every life we can.
I am not giving up.
ANDREW CUOMO
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And he also said this on the 24th:
It’s not [that] we’re going to either do public health or we’re going to do economic development and restarting. We have to do both.”

And this:
Cuomo: Not sure if closing all businesses, keeping everyone home was 'the best public health strategy'
In a press conference in Albany, Cuomo said the smartest way forward would be a public health strategy that complemented a “get-back-to-work strategy.”

"You can't keep spending money and close down the economy and the President is eager to get it opened as quickly as possible."

"I actually have a group that is working on the restart of the economy because I get it, too. This is New York and we're with the home of so much of this. So coming up with the plan to restart the economy is very important. But this, you don't want to - it's a false choice to say public health or restart the economy. Nobody's going to make that choice, and by the way, if you have to make that choice, it's public health. Because you cannot put a value on a human life. Nobody cares how long it takes to get the economy up and running if you actually saved lives."


You can start to test and find out who had the virus and who resolved from the virus, and they can start to go back to work." That's how we'll restart the economy with a smart public health strategy, because closing the door on everyone was only because we didn't know better, right?

But now you can come up with a smarter public health strategy that actually
protects older people, lets younger people get back to work, and that can start the economic recovery. But it has to be that smart. It can't be reactive. It can't be emotional.


https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-admits-that-quarantine-may-have-backfired-in-some-cases/
And he’s said that any restart would be conditioned upon the FDA approving tests that would allow doctors to determine if patients have immunity to the deadly disease.

“Younger people can go back to work. People who have resolved can go back to work,” Cuomo again said Wednesday. “People who — once we get this antibody test — show that they had the virus and they resolved can go back to work.

“That’s how I think you do it. … It’s not [that] we’re going to either do public health or we’re going to do economic development and restarting. We have to do both.”
 
CSIDreamer said:
Look at that. A 16 day pandemic and boom, just like that, it was over. Jmo.
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The OP copied just the past 16 days data of total cases and total deaths and is not saying that the pandemic lasted just 16 days. The data actually goes back to the very first documented cases and this is just part of it.

It might have been easier to understand the data if the OP had also shown the total new cases and total new deaths from one day to the next, but it's pretty basic math from what was provided. You just have to look at the difference between one day and the day before.

So no, it definitely is not a 16 day pandemic that ended with a boom.
 
Tripod said:
There is definitely conflicting info re: PPE. Even Andy Cuomo said today the hospitals in NYC are ok for now, but of course the supply absolutely needs replenishing.
New York Governor Cuomo Coronavirus News Conference | C-SPAN.org
I have definitely seen a few reports that have been questioned or debunked, so everyone, be very careful and always double and triple-check things, if you can.
Click to expand...
Yeah, he was criticized by the executive director of the nurse’s association for that. I guess what he said didn’t match the reality.

There was communication between the parties after that, and hopefully it’s being sorted out.

'It’s misleading’: Nurses union slams Cuomo on coronavirus protective gear claim
 
cody22 said:
I have discovered a now bulging split inside the front driver's side tire on my wife's BIG white Ford serial killer van. It is causing bad vibrating at any speed over 40 miles per hour.I now have to get up in the morning , go sit around with a bunch of possibly diseased strangers for God only knows how long, and spend a small fortune on a new set of tires( We were gonna try to let these go another 5,000 miles hopefully)......... Woe is me. It has been nice knowing yall.....:(..........Take care.....moo
Click to expand...

Maybe the garage guy can come to your house? Do you have AAA, or roadside protection on your sk van? We hate to see you go down like this. :'(
 
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