Very interesting interview with a researcher working on the vaccine.
Peter Hotez, MD, PhD.
He says 18 months is very unreasonable. The fastest time to develop and get approval for a vaccine was for mumps and that took 4 years.
He has some good perspectives on viral diseases and some caution about unrealistic expectations.
Coronavirus expert Peter Hotez: ‘Now's the time when you're at greatest risk of contracting the virus by being in crowds.’
Additionally:
“This disease may come in waves, like the flu pandemic of 1918. That came in several waves between the beginning of 1918 and the end of 1920. That was a three-year pandemic, and that's a possibility for us as well.
Figuring out a plan for the country in the event that we don't have a vaccine is going to be very important for us. Some people are not happy that I said that because it sounds so pessimistic. It isn't.
I do think we will have other technologies coming out.
We've already got the convalescing the antibody therapy. We've got some new drugs that will come online.
But let's consider a realistic timeframe too, in case the vaccines are not out, and figuring out if this virus comes in waves.”
What would that look like in terms of getting people to back to work? How would we manage that? That includes mental health aspects. Will people have PTSD in terms of going back to work?
We’ll also have governors from some states unwilling to go back to social distancing once we're off that first hook. Even in this month, when things are so dire in the country, you've got about a third of the governors who are pushing back against aggressive social distancing.
What's it going to be a year from now if we're off social distancing, then we have to go back on?
And who organizes it? Who organizes the response? Who charts the plan for us?
How do we figure this out as a nation? How do we look at all the models and say, what's a realistic model? And and if this virus does show a waxing and waning course, how do we deal with that, working with governments, working with businesses, and working with health systems? This is going to be a very complicated situation.”
[...]
“”Then let's say the levels of transmission continue to stay down for the next few months. When are the predictions this virus might return? Is in the fall of this year? Is it January of next year? April next year? Getting guidance about that will be really helpful.
Other questions are, who goes back into the workforce? Is that only people that have been infected and have antibodies that make them resistant to infection? Or is it or is it everyone?
I certainly don't have the answers to that. We're going to have to have some meaningful dialogue and convene some of the best minds in the country. I suggested on CNN that bringing in the National Academy of Sciences, or a similar organization, would be very helpful. We need some of the best scientists in the country around the table, looking at the models and charting a path.”
[...]
“I’m really scratching my head figuring out what the next two and three years look like. That's a big one.””
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. But I hear you. I have a box of regular masks left over from earlier this year when my daughter bought them while visiting my grandson - she had a cold but didn't want him to catch it. She left the box with me and they have come in handy.