Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #48

[musicaljoke]

There is a fascinating article in the BBC Psychology section about entitled "Why we find it difficult to recognise a crisis". It puts forth some answers to the question: How did two of the most advanced countries in the world [UK & US], with technology and expertise to spare, fail to recognise the crisis as it unfolded? A final answer will only come with hindsight and public inquiries, but there are many known psychological processes that cause individuals and organisations to miss the signs of a coming emergency – even when it is staring them in the face.

The writer outlines a few reasons why this happens, but one popped out at me. There is a concept called “functional stupidity”, described by Mats Alvesson at Lund University in Sweden and Andre Spicer at City University of London in the UK. The pair found that organisations often hire clever and talented people, but then create cultures and decision-making processes that do not encourage them to raise concerns or make suggestions. Instead, everyone is encouraged to emphasise positive interpretations of events, leading to “self-reinforcing stupidity”.

The article describes this in more detail, plus has some additional points, such as optimism bias, confirmation bias, and group think. It's a good read.<modsnip>

Why we find it difficult to recognise a crisis

 

[anneg]

Is it OK to start popping the WS popcorn this early in the morning ?...............I love this thread.......moo

I'll take a bowl, thanks!

 

[Inthedetails]

I


I'm behind on reading , but mass transit is one huge reason for NY and NJ's problem, and of course the much higher population density. NY got a late start, too, and the virus had already begun spreading rapidly before things could be mitigated more.

The numbers are awful for NYC, but they could've been far, far worse, imo. NY has done a great job at flattening the curve.

Most people are adhering to social distancing (yes, you can find exceptions in the news stories) and masks are now mandated for everyone - though people have been wearing them and some stores were already requiring them.

The majority of people take social distancing seriously and that slowed the spread....and avoided even more deaths.

Keep it up! Every day heroes are people who social-distance, wear masks, stay home. I give credit to everyone cooperating with that - THANK YOU!

(I'm in NYC.)

 

[SugarQueen]

I watched my father scrape the butter wrapper with a knife, sliding the knife sideways to ensure the foil didn't break and no butter was left behind

When I used to bake tons I saved the butter wrappers to grease pans. They are also great to add just a light coating of “ grease” to a skillet.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Simon Harris hopes to ease some restrictions in May, US anti-lockdown protests on the rise: Today's Covid-19 main points

(Ireland)

HEALTH OFFICIALS SAID yesterday that Ireland has 13,271 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 486 people with the disease have died.

Yesterday evening, 43 more deaths and 629 new cases were announced in Ireland. An additional 95 cases from a testing backlog were also confirmed by a lab in Germany.

The cases confirmed from the lab in Germany represent the processing of a backlog of Irish samples, some of which date back to mid-March. The HSE has said it is hoped the backlog would be eliminated this week.

Here are today’s Covid-19 main points:

• 43 more people with Covid-19 have died and 629 new cases were confirmed in Ireland yesterday. 95 more Irish cases from a testing backlog have also been confirmed by a lab in Germany.
• As of yesterday, 138 people with Covid-19 were in Intesive Care Units (ICU). A further 38 suspected cases were also in ICU.
• Simon Harris said he hopes to ease restriction measures in May, but warns not to expect ‘significant lifting of restrictions’.
• 11 Covid-19 related deaths have been recorded over the space of two weeks at a Dublin care home for older people.
• At least 41 people have died from Covid-19 in care homes and hospices in Northern Ireland. The figure represents around a quarter of the overall tally and involves 23 separate establishments.
• Summer courses at more than 20 Gaeltacht colleges have been thrown into doubt this year due to the Covid-19 emergency.
• The director general of the World Health Organisation (WHO) has thanked Tánaiste Simon Coveney for pledging to increase Ireland’s contribution to the WHO.
• People with Covid-19 in Ireland are now infecting less than one other person each, health officials said yesterday.
• People have been using online library services a lot more lately – over 30,000 people joined in March compared to the same month last year, there has been a 313% jump in new users of eBooks and eAudiobooks, a 467% increase in e-learning courses being taken and a 246% increase in usage of online newspapers/e-magazines.
• A message circulating on WhatsApp claiming to show a letter signed by Chief Medical Officer Tony Holohan stating that all of Ireland’s pubs are to remain shut until 1 September at the earliest is a “complete fabrication”, Holohan confirmed.
• Fr Éamonn Ó Gallachóir, parish priest in Cill Chartha in southwest Donegal, told RTÉ’s Raidió na Gaeltachta that priests should be entitled to the state Covid-19 payment of €350, particularly younger priests who wouldn’t have much money.
• The Dublin Rape Crisis Centre has welcomed the new government campaign to emphasise that domestic and sexual violence support services from State agencies and the voluntary sector are still going during this time.

 

[Inthedetails]

I always fold mine and put them in the freezer, then use to grease my pans before baking.

I grease the pans with the butter paper too - and I think of my mom and sisters every time I do (which is often since I bake and cook a lot) - and I think of the kitchen of my childhood.

Rather comforting how so many of us think about simple things from our childhood during all this. Kids today will think back at this time throughout their lives....bittersweet.

jmo

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Almost one in ten diagnosed cases of Covid-19 in Ireland are nurses

(Ireland)

NEARLY ONE IN 10 (9.2%) diagnosed Covid-19 cases in Ireland are nurses, according to HSE figures.

The figures, obtained by the Irish Nurses & Midwives Organisation (INMO), show that healthcare workers make up over a quarter of the Covid-19 positive cases tested in Ireland.

Out of the 9,599 cases diagnosed by 11 April, this amounted to 2,501 healthcare workers (26%), over a third (883) of whom were nurses.

According to the INMO, Ireland faces one of the highest rates of diagnosed healthcare worker infection in Europe.

Last week, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control found that, across Europe, between 9% and 26% of all diagnosed Covid-19 cases are in healthcare workers.

 

[tresir2012]

Coronavirus: UK hospital deaths reach 14,000 after 847 more patients die

Another 847 people have died with coronavirus in UK hospitals, taking the nationwide total beyond 14,000.

The Department of Health announced the latest increase, with 14,576 people with COVID-19 - the disease caused by coronavirus - now confirmed to have died in hospital across the four home nations.


The number of tests for the illness has also risen by 21,328 to 438,991, although this includes some people being tested more than once.

There have now been 108,692 positive tests in the UK.

Health authorities in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also record their own daily figures, which may not tally with the government's total as they collate their numbers at different times throughout the day.

I am happy the testing appears to be increasing. 438k tested. The deaths seem to be leveling around 800 daily so just waiting for them to begin decreasing hopefully.

You would not believe what I've been going through with my elderly mother. After a trip to the ER (non cv19) she's on home health for wound care. Thank God because in the course of 7 days, I've left 3 messages at her doctor's office. No return phone call. They have never acted like this before.

I hope she will be ok.

 

[tresir2012]

China increases death toll in outbreak city by 50%

The Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus originated last year, has raised its official Covid-19 death toll by 50%, adding 1,290 fatalities.

Wuhan officials attributed the new figure to updated reporting and deaths outside hospitals. China has insisted there was no cover-up.

It has been accused of downplaying the severity of its virus outbreak.

Wuhan's 11 million residents spent months in strict lockdown conditions, which have only recently been eased.

The latest official figures bring the death toll in the city in China's central Hubei province to 3,869, increasing the national total to more than 4,600.

China has confirmed nearly 84,000 coronavirus infections, the seventh-highest globally, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

The virus has had a huge impact on the Chinese economy, which shrank for the first time in decades in the first quarter of the year.

• Follow our live reporting from around the world
• Why China's claims of success raise eyebrows

What's China's explanation for the rise in deaths?
In a statement released on Friday, officials in Wuhan said the revised figures were the result of new data received from multiple sources, including records kept by funeral homes and prisons.

Deaths linked to the virus outside hospitals, such as people who died at home, had not previously been recorded.

More at link.

 

[Ragnarok]

China raised Wuhan's death count 50%.

China Raises Wuhan’s Coronavirus Death Toll 50 Percent: Live Coverage

 

[cody22]

China increases death toll in outbreak city by 50%

I had a feeling they were miscounting those Abacus beads.........moo

 

[oviedo]

When I used to bake tons I saved the butter wrappers to grease pans. They are also great to add just a light coating of “ grease” to a skillet.

I still do this - and use it for buttering the pans of anything I cook with butter. Have a stack in my fridge now.
JMO

 

[tresir2012]

I had a feeling they were miscounting those Abacus beads.........moo

Population of China 1.4 billion
Population of Hubei 59 million
Population of the Hubei capital Wuhan 11 million.

Total China Coronavirus deaths 4,600

Demographics of China - Wikipedia

 

[PommyMommy]

London mayor calls for masks to be worn on public transport and in shops

[...]

Khan said the UK is an "outlier" for not recommending masks and called for non-medical facial coverings such as bandanas, scarfs and reusable masks to be worn in public places.

"I'm lobbying our government's experts and our government to change the advice," Khan said. "If you really can't stay at home, if you really have to use public transport and you can't keep your social distance, then wear a non-medical facial covering."

[...]

Pope Francis writes 'plan for resurrection' from coronavirus pandemic

Pope Francis has written a “plan for resurrection” from the coronavirus pandemic which calls for a united effort to end wars, care for the planet, and take care of the poor.

[...]

Australian mayor fined after violating stay-at-home orders and going out for beer

The mayor of Australian city Warrnambool has been fined $1,044 after being photographed drinking beer with others outside a liquor store this month -- a breach of stay-at-home orders in the state of Victoria.

[...]

"I believed my actions to engage with business owners as part of my mayoral role was within the bounds of the law," Herbert added. "However, I realize I had inadvertently breached the new laws."

[...]

It is "highly likely" that the coronavirus is "not man-made," European official says

[...]

The official was responding to reports on whether the disease was genetically engineered by the Chinese.

Some context: US intelligence and national security officials say the United States government is looking into the possibility that the novel coronavirus spread from a Chinese laboratory rather than a market, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who also caution it is premature to draw any conclusions.

Coronavirus survivor says taking a breath "felt like I’d been underwater too long"

[...]

Thirty days later, he is still experiencing fatigue and got a little winded when he walked around his block for the first time. His advice for others at this point is to exercise caution.

“You may say you're fine. You may say you're low risk. You know what? You might get it, not know it, go back to work thinking you're fine, never have any symptoms. You could give it to people you work with who could get very sick or die. That's what I want people to understand. That's why I put the video out there,” he said.

What it's like to travel on a plane during the coronavirus pandemic

CNN's Jeff Zeleny recently flew from Reagan National in Washington, DC, to the Detroit Metro Airport and recounted his experience.

Zeleny said both airports were "virtually empty."

"The biggest inconvenience: No coffee for my 6 a.m. flight on Wednesday, since all restaurants were closed. And only bottled water, with a side of Biscotti and Purell wipes served in a plastic bag, on the plane. But I'm certainly not complaining, given the janitorial staff and airline workers still on duty as before," Zeleny said.

[...]

US Surgeon General calls wearing face coverings "sign of respect" during pandemic

[...]

"I've really been in the thick of this whole mask discussion, and we know that wearing a cloth facial covering prevents you from spreading to other people," Adams told "Fox & Friends" this morning.

"And I do think it's a sign of respect, of appreciation for the fact that you could be asymptomatically spreading to someone else," Adams said. "That's something that governors are going to consider as they look at how do we safely reopen."

[...]

Vehicles crammed Michigan roadways in protest against the state's stay-at-home order

[...]

Whitmer could hardly ignore the scene, considering the honking horns, raucous jeers and blaring music became background noise for her video conference call with health care workers.

[...]

Michigan currently has 29,263 coronavirus cases and 2,093 deaths, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University.

Coronavirus news and live updates: Cases surpass 2.1 million globally - CNN

 

[squareandrabbet]

You would not believe what I've been going through with my elderly mother. After a trip to the ER (non cv19) she's on home health for wound care. Thank God because in the course of 7 days, I've left 3 messages at her doctor's office. No return phone call. They have never acted like this before.

Gosh, I'm sorry to hear that. Can you get your mother a telehealth appointment if you need to? Every specialist I've ever been to, it seems, has been bombarding me with emails about the option for remote appointments via smartphone, Skype, etc.

 

[NuttMegg]

This is just a suggestion for those of you who are sick of this new life and perhaps not in a good place mentally. Make a list of all the things you’ve ever said you wish you had the time to do and then figure out if some of them are doable now.

For instance, tons of people have told me over the years that they wish they had more time to read, and I wonder if they are doing that now. Others have said they wish they had time to learn to knit, crochet, or sew. With YouTube, some of these things are doable. There are even some fabulous free classes available online.

There is grace in this. We just have to open our eyes to it.

Agree completely. At least now, with social distancing, I don't have to feel guilty about fooling around on the computer. Photography, hardly have to leave my garden, and no film to send off. Hawks and owls perch in the tree across the street within capture distance of my lens. Anything I ever wanted to research and learn about....right there in easy steps on the computer. basic geology, basic human physiology, make sourdough bread to avoid buying more yeast? What instruments make which sounds in your favorite music...just watch them play it on youtube. The excellent docs on BBC...what was Mozart's life like? Beethoven...watch him "feel" the applause after he lost his hearing. Watch Amadeus for the 10th time. Watch Queen's 1985 incredible Live Aid concert. Again.

Plants....catalogue every plant family and species, if possible on your property. Find out which are native to where and what they might cure in your life or which will attract butterflies and native bees. Save some seeds for a friend. It's all there on WIKI. Take a photo of mystery flowers, and post on one of the many free FB pages re "ID this plant". There is so much to do. Watch the Herzog documentary Grizzly Man (long, many episodes) on Treadwell the guy who devoted so many summers to watching bears, but in the end he and his girlfriend were eaten. After he camped on a bear trail one fall when the bears had little to eat. There are FB pages on wild plants, garden plants, alpine plants, desert critters, insects, birds, whatever else there is to have curiosity about in your area. Submit your own pics, iphone photos are perfect, for lots of support from others. Join audible, and download the "Great Courses". Get one free with your signup, and other topics for 15 bucks a piece, 20-30 hours each album. Insomniac? Download old Zane Grey free westerns on librivox .org.

Avoid too much news. They all get paid to say things.

 

[Sunny123]

It's actually much, much, MUCH safer. It's in the open air. A person could actually use common sense about it and it's optional. Going to work is not optional. NY has not been able to shut down public transportation entirely because they don't have a way of getting essential workers to their jobs. Those workers take the risk.

If everyone else goes back to work, they too, will take that risk. By far worse than sitting on a bench. Banning bench-sitting is, IMO, fear-mongering. No contact tracing in subway cars either - and the estimated number of tracers and the kind of technology are both at least a year away.

All of us who have to go back to work (teachers, clerical employees in educational institutions, all healthcare workers, etc) will be taking way higher risks than walking through a park and sitting on a bench. Take your wipes if you are really worried, but there's no way to sanitize the air in the classroom in the same manner - and the virions reproduce in closed spaces as people breathe. No wipes can keep the students safe from each others - and masks only work when people know how to use them.

I agree, and am concerned about students bringing the virus home to vulnerable family members. I don't believe that testing capabilities are anywhere near where they need to be. For example, my granddaughter recently developed a high fever, and a sore throat. She has recently moved here from Massachusetts, and hasn't found a pediatrician. My DIL first called the hospital, and was told they couldn't give her any medical advice. She called her old pediatrician and they told her to go to a walk in clinic. She took her to a Walgreens clinic, and they tested her for flu, and strep (both negative). They said they were going to send the Strep test to a lab, and prescribed Amoxicillin. I'm rambling, but I guess my concern is, how can they know that she doesn't have COVID, if they aren't testing.

 

[BHughes]

Just an update: THE PORTAL worked for me just now!!!! So try again to those who have had problems with it like me.

@cody22 I'll take a helping of that popcorn with extra butter please....

Get My Payment | Internal Revenue Service

 

[PommyMommy]

There have been nearly 5,000 coronavirus-related deaths in Iran

[...]

Some context: The situation in Iran is particularly intense because the country is already plagued by a weak economy, in part because of US sanctions, and a shortage of medical resources. Iran urged the International Monetary Fund to grant a $5 billion loan to help in the country's fight against coronavirus.

US officials believe the money would not actually go towards the country's public health crisis but will finance terrorist groups. ...

Biotech company awarded $483 million to develop coronavirus vaccine

[...]

Bright added that preparing now for "advanced stage clinical trials" and "production scale-up" while the vaccine candidate is currently in a phase 1 study could help accelerate the development of vaccines.

... The study began on March 16.

[...]

Moderna is among several companies that are currently testing vaccines, but it will take months — or more likely at least a year — to complete those trials.

Foreign government hackers targeting US coronavirus research, FBI says

[...]

“We have certainly seen reconnaissance activity and some intrusions into some of those institutions — especially those that have publicly identified themselves as working on Covid-related research,” Tonya Ugoretz, the Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI’s Cyber Division, said at an event hosted by the Aspen Institute.

[...]

Reopening the economy could turn workplaces into "killing fields," ex-acting labor secretary says

[...]

Harris said the federal government needs to be more involved and issue specific guidelines for employers to protect workers and get people back to their jobs safely.

“I think we can slowly, carefully reopen the country, but we have to do it in a way that makes sense and that keeps workers safe. And the President simply washing his hands of any responsibility for anything in this crisis is not the way to get there,” Harris said. “We need a coordinated federal state effort. We need the federal government to play the role that only the federal government can play with respect to workplace safety and health and producing the protective gear that we need. I'm really worried about it. I think that the experience we've had so far is not encouraging."

Schumer says negotiations on more aid for small businesses will continue through the weekend

[...]

Schumer said that Democrats have proposed $100 billion for hospitals, $30 billion for a testing program and assistance for local governments in addition to more funding for the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program.

“It's vital we do this,” said Schumer. “It’s vital we help small business, but if we don't deal with the testing and health care problems, if we don't deal with the local government problems, small business may have enough money to get back, although we got to fix that program, but people won't go out on the streets.”

[...]

Testing and maintaining mitigation will play key roles in reopening the country, CDC director says

Certain jurisdictions in the US are "very close" to having testing capabilities in place in order to reopen, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said during an appearance on NBC Friday morning.

[...]

Redfield added: "So it's important not to let up at all, but do this in a prudent, gradual way as we go through the different phases and really maintain those mitigation strategies of handwashing, social distancing, wearing a face covering when you're in public if you're in an area where there's still significant ongoing transmission like we still see in New York, Boston, obviously Baltimore, Washington, different parts of our nation."

US lacks sufficient testing capabilities needed to reopen, medical association warns

[...]

Dr. John Lynch, IDSA board member and associate medical director at Harborview Medical Center in Seattle, said the US needs broad and easy access to testing.

“We need to find a way to have testing accessible in a public health forum — an approach where it's widely, easily accessible, it is agnostic to your insurance status, and it is ahead — it is aggressive, it is out in front, where there are potentially no cases," Lynch said. "We have to recognize this virus is not going anywhere. There is a distinct risk that we will just bump straight back up and we'll see a brisk increase in the number of infections. As we relax these, we have to be able to respond to that."

[...]

Coronavirus deaths in United Kingdom hospitals continue to rise

The number of people who have died from the coronavirus in United Kingdom hospitals has reached 14,576 as of Friday, according to the UK Department of Health and Social Care.

That's an increase of 847 from Thursday.

[...]

Coronavirus drug trial investigator: Patients are improving though it's too early to draw conclusions

Some patients severely infected with Covid-19 are recovering quickly after taking an experimental drug called remdesivir, according to a report from STAT News, which obtained a video of a conversation about a clinical trial at the University of Chicago.

[...]

... “It is hard to know at this point if that's related to the study drug or not, but we're expecting results…a little bit later this month at least on the first several hundred patients that were studied.”

[...]

All New York City events in May will be canceled, mayor says

[...]

The mayor said his office will not issues any permits. Events like the Brooklyn half marathon will be canceled, de Blasio said.

The mayor said his office is currently talking to event planners for the month of June.

Without a coronavirus vaccine, US could face a "new normal," former CDC director says

Experts have estimated that a coronavirus vaccine could take 12 to 18 months before it is available for the public — and without a vaccine, people will still have to maintain some physical distancing measures to keep the virus from spreading, Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on MSNBC this morning.

[...]

"Anyone who is not afraid of the devastation this virus causes is not taking it seriously enough and that can be a deadly error," Frieden added. "This is a highly infectious virus. It's spreading like a super SARS — all of the way SARS spread and more."

[...]

Frieden said that while individuals can do a lot to reduce the risk of transmission, people who are vulnerable "are going to have to shelter in place for longer. Maybe not that long, but longer."

[...]

Former CDC director says we need to "box in" coronavirus in order to reopen America

[...]

Speaking on Friday during a Vital Strategies webinar, Frieden said we are currently “trapped in our home, wrapped in our fears, isolated in our hospitals.”

In order to reopen America, Frieden said we need to “box it in," utilizing a four-cornered approach of testing, isolating, quarantining and finding the virus.

[...]

Mississippi governor extends shelter-in-place order

Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves announced that he will be extending the state's shelter-in-place order an additional week to continue flattening the curve of coronavirus cases.

The state's current stay-at-home order was set to expire on Monday but will now go through April 27, Reeves said during a news conference Friday morning.

[...]

Coronavirus news and live updates: Cases surpass 2.1 million globally - CNN

 

[Gardenista]

Beaches in Florida will start reopening THIS EVENING | Daily Mail Online