That's the CFR. The same link says we should be looking not at the CFR, but the IFR, which is unknowable at this point since we have no idea how many people are infected -- although everyone seems to agree that the virus is highly contagious, so that number is likely to be extremely high. And I agree. As we find out how many people were infected and didn't die (or even have serious symptoms) the IFR will go way down.
From the link:
What we want to know isn’t the case fatality rate: it’s the infection fatality rate
Before we look at what the CFR does tell us about the mortality risk, it is helpful to see what it doesn’t.
Remember the question we asked at the beginning: if someone is infected with COVID-19, how likely is it that they will die? The answer to that question is captured by the
infection fatality rate, or IFR.
The IFR is the number of deaths from a disease divided by the
total number of cases. If 10 people die of the disease, and 500 actually have it, then the IFR is [10 / 500], or 2%.
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To work out the IFR, we need two numbers: the
total number of cases and the
total number of deaths.
However, as we explain
here, the
total number of cases of COVID-19 is not known. That’s partly because not everyone with COVID-19 is tested.
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We may be able to
estimate the total number of cases and use it to calculate the IFR – and researchers do this. But the total number of cases is not known, so the IFR cannot be accurately calculated. And, despite what some media reports imply, the CFR is not the same as – or, probably, even similar to – the IFR. Next, we’ll discuss why.
.........You'all are a special group of people!
