Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #51

[10ofRods]

Jane, every time I think of the world uniting, I remember the writings by contemporaries of the Black Plague --

• There were many to echo his account of inhumanity and few to balance it, for the plague was not the kind of calamity that inspired mutual help. Its loathsomeness and deadliness did not herd people together in mutual distress, but only prompted their desire to escape each other. “Magistrates and notaries refused to come and make the wills of the dying,” reported a Franciscan friar of Piazza in Sicily; what was worse, “even the priests did not come to hear their confessions.” A clerk of the Archbishop of Canterbury reported the same of English priests who “turned away from the care of their benefices from fear of death.” Cases of parents deserting children and children their parents were reported across Europe from Scotland to Russia. The calamity chilled the hearts of men, wrote Boccaccio in his famous account of the plague in Florence that serves as introduction to the Decameron. “One man shunned another … kinsfolk held aloof, brother was forsaken by brother, oftentimes husband by wife; nay, what is more, and scarcely to be believed, fathers and mothers were found to abandon their own children to their fate, untended, unvisited as if they had been strangers.” Exaggeration and literary pessimism were common in the 14th century, but the Pope’s physician, Guy de Chauliac, was a sober, careful observer who reported the same phenomenon: “A father did not visit his son, nor the son his father. Charity was dead.”

Tuchman, Barbara. A Distant Mirror. Random House Publishing Group.

Of course, we have a greater understanding of infectious diseases than they did in the 14th century. But stresses bring out the worse in human nature.

I'll subscribe to your blog if you have one.

 

[rogue ant]

Right. I do understand the worry - most people are not on forums like this one or getting any reliable information at all. Getting into the habit of dealing with the outside packaging first, then washing up, seems important unless everyone is fine with something just sitting on their porch or in their front yard, or whatever. Our cardboard stays outside, depending on the item, we may open it fairly quickly (if it's been in transit for more than 3 days, I'm good with that, especially if it's in plastic, which almost everything is).

In transit for 3 days but a human handled it to put it in your mailbox or drop it off on your porch.

 

[LadyL]

The coronavirus pandemic is robbing some people of a chance to come together to mourn: a practice deeply embedded in many animal species.

Animal Grief Shows We Aren’t Meant to Die Alone

 

[margarita25]

Bringing over post by @BHughes from Thread 50, thanks:

RBM:

Possibly 30 strains, already....
Coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different strains: study

BREAKING NEWS: COVID-19 Has Now Mutated to Over 30 Strains, Says China : Science : Tech Times

"Finding a cure for the current COVID-19 pandemic has been challenging scientists and medical professionals all over the world. However, it now seems that the mission may be more complicated than initially thought as it has been reported through a Chinese study on infected individuals that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has now mutated to over 30 strains. This may further delay the development of vaccines"

 

[cass523]

As of April 24, there were 102,196 reported cases in the state, including 3,047 additional cases disclosed Friday.

New Jersey has completed a total of 185,329 tests with 44.1% of the tests coming back positive as of Friday.

Long-term care facilities continue to be a concern across the state. There are 14,579 reported COVID-19 cases at 452 long-term care facilities across the state.

There have been 5,617 deaths related to coronavirus in New Jersey, with 1,652 confirmed and 1,044 suspected in long-term care facilities. Officials reported 253 new deaths Friday.

The racial breakdown of those who have died in New Jersey is: 49.3% white, 22% black, 17.2% Hispanic, 5.4% Asian and 6.1% classified as other.

NJ coronavirus update: Deaths rise to 5,617 Friday as statewide cases surpass 100,000

 

[musicaljoke]

I am currently working in a hospital discharge team here in the UK. We have had so many unspeakable tragedies happening to families here, but today we had something really lovely to celebrate - a couple in their late eighties who have both been in intensive care fighting Covid 19 have both survived and were both declared fit for discharge today, meaning they could finally be re-united and discharged together. There wasn't a dry eye in the room when they were both wheeled out to go home.

Oh, that is lovely good news. Just imagine how their children and grandies must have celebrated. It makes me teary too.

 

[Curious Me]

Primary care doctors are being furloughed and offices are closing - they’ve been begging for telemedicine calls to generate income. My doctors do not have hospital privileges.

Expecting mother learns delivery doctors no longer employed

I hope your toe is better soon!! Keep us updated!

My doctor has been pregnant twice and so has two toddlers. I hope she's holding up during this crisis.

Thank You so much. Such great people here. You're right that nothing is like normal right now. My health care provider keeps sending me emails that are meant to comfort me with promises of telemedicine calls, but it must be chaos. There's no easy way to reach them really. The email worked best, but I'm stuck on how to get through to one of their pharmacy people.

This is probably going to come across as whining, so scroll and roll anyone who finds it a bore. It's about the silly hardship to get my refills of the much talked about Hydroxychloroquine.
I really don't want to bother them right now; however, I want them to mail me my Plaquenil I need for RA, but they won't when I go online to order. I have to go into their pharmacy to pick it up. Why? They used to mail it! Plus, a side-issue is it says online now only 14 pills again instead of 100. They did that last time and they count it as a full refill. So, instead of 4 refills left = 400 pills, I'll get 56 pills, if this keeps up. Cost isn't an issue. It's what this virus has done to my prescription. I'm shocked, it doesn't seem right or legal all the way around. I really don't want to keep going there and being exposed for only 14 pills. Is there still a shortage on what is suppose to be a stockpile of that drug that they now say doesn't help as thought for CV-19?

 

[Anance]

Donald Trump has previously urged Americans to take hydroxychloroquine, although he has apparently backed away from the drug in recent days,

Not political, just noting the President is human. Of course, he wants to offer hope. But he - and the press - need to back away from statements promoting different drugs or saying vaccines are in trial and will be available whenever.

We are in uncharted territory. There is much we don't know. In my case, I have so many conflicting recommendations that I'll just stick to preventive measures and will believe in treatments/vaccines/tests AFTER they have been approved.

 

[LadyL]

Curve Lake First Nation

 

[musicaljoke]

My doctor has been pregnant twice and so has two toddlers. I hope she's holding up during this crisis.

Thank You so much. Such great people here. You're right that nothing is like normal right now. My health care provider keeps sending me emails that are meant to comfort me with promises of telemedicine calls, but it must be chaos. There's no easy way to reach them really. The email worked best, but I'm stuck on how to get through to one of their pharmacy people.

This is probably going to come across as whining, so scroll and roll anyone who finds it a bore. It's about the silly hardship to get my refills of the much talked about Hydroxychloroquine.
I really don't want to bother them right now; however, I want them to mail me my Plaquenil I need for RA, but they won't when I go online to order. I have to go into their pharmacy to pick it up. Why? They used to mail it! Plus, a side-issue is it says online now only 14 pills again instead of 100. They did that last time and they count it as a full refill. So, instead of 4 refills left = 400 pills, I'll get 56 pills, if this keeps up. Cost isn't an issue. It's what this virus has done to my prescription. I'm shocked, it doesn't seem right or legal all the way around. I really don't want to keep going there and being exposed for only 14 pills. Is there still a shortage on what is suppose to be a stockpile of that drug that they now say doesn't help as thought for CV-19?

Maybe you should give them a call and let them know that this is not a good thing for you. At first pharmacies really didn't know what drugs were going to be shorted, or redirected to the CoV-19 war, but this issue is settling down. It's possible that pharmacies no longer need to be meting out medication like it's toilet paper, but they continue to do it because no one is complaining, and they are making a ton of extra money.

 

[musicaljoke]

This is great! Do you have a link for this? I'd like to share it.

 

[10ofRods]

I am currently working in a hospital discharge team here in the UK. We have had so many unspeakable tragedies happening to families here, but today we had something really lovely to celebrate - a couple in their late eighties who have both been in intensive care fighting Covid 19 have both survived and were both declared fit for discharge today, meaning they could finally be re-united and discharged together. There wasn't a dry eye in the room when they were both wheeled out to go home.

That made me cry. My DH is going to tell me to get off the internet.

Sometimes I feel that older people don't matter very much. It's so hard to watch younger people find it SO difficult to stay 6 feet away from people obviously older. It is getting better, I know the young ones don't really dislike us older ones, but sometimes I think I should get a cane out and dye my hair completely silver and carry an afghan around so that they'll stay away from me.

 

[Chelly]

Darn COVID.....Makes me feel like taking Malaria drugs, sipping a cocktail of lysol and bleach and putting the palms of my hands in the sun.

 

[Curious Me]

My perspective is that I want to avoid being in a hospital at all costs. Bacterial and viral infections are much more easily acquired in hospital than here in my own home. I am not completely isolated (long story, but I'm almost completely isolated - I still see two people once a week, besides my DH, they are both self-isolating).

BUT, when would I go to the hospital is a question that really keeps me awake. I certainly wouldn't go if I had just one symptom (I have conjunctivitis right now, no biggie, but the red-rimmed eyes, well, you know). You have the toe and not much else.

If you or I lose our sense of smell - I suggest we insist on being tested. I prefer to treat myself at home unless I then spike a high temperature, in which case, if it doesn't come down with something like Tylenol, I'm going to the UCLA outpatient clinic and from there, I guess, to a hospital. I will at that point hopefully have my affairs in order. I might go to Cottage in Santa Barbara instead, not sure. SoCal's hospitals are not that great IMO.

But with good supportive care, unless I have an acute need for oxygen, I'm riding this out at home. Oximeter should be arriving tomorrow. We have access to a CPAP machine if that became necessary (would buy a new one for the person who is using it for sleep apnea).

TL;DR = if I lose my sense of smell, I'm going to do something more active. If I spike a fever, ditto. If I feel like I have a bear sitting on my chest - same. Or if my oxygen levels drop below 88. Something like that.

I'm going to try to remember some of your priorities because this virus moves fast and it may be hard to think straight. I do have an oxygen compressor and tanks, but don't have to use them often. I get very out of breath if I exert myself, but am fine at rest. I need to avoid this virus because I can not afford more lung damage.

It seems the virus affecting the heart or lungs would be the most serious. It's just so tricky and fast. I read the story of the first woman in Cali to die from the virus. She worked for a semi conductor co. and was working from home, improving... was in contact with someone 2 hrs. before... then boom she died.

You keep taking care. You're loved by many...at a distance, of course.

 

[musicaljoke]

The US continues to climb in terms of CoVid cases, although the curve is now linear, not exponential.

We are coming close to 1 million confirmed cases of CoVid in the US, with few models capable of estimating the unknown cases (those range from 500,000 to 4 million, depending on which studies you favor). The exact number reported by state agencies is 894,000 but not all state agencies report in the morning - some report at noon PDT or 5 pm PDT.

Approximately 51,000 people have died in the US (not counting many nursing home victims or all deaths at home). That gives us a 6% case mortality rate (of people who have tested positive, 6% die). That's higher than in other nations, and our average age at death is lower (I can't find the most recent figure, but the CDC should have that soon).

Again, not all nursing home deaths are in the numbers, so the average age is not completely reflecting the reality.

One-third tend to be elderly, most all with pre-existing conditions.

Another third are not elderly, but many or most have pre-existing conditions (BMI over 30 is the main one), and one third are healthy adults, most of whom are either essential employees or are people in places where social distancing is either not required or not being enforced. Some are family members of essential employees or others who are not social distancing.

Coronavirus Dashboard

Per capita, the UK is in much worse shape. With about 1/5th population of the US (we have about 340,000,000 and they have about 67,000,000), their case mortality number is 19,506, almost all of it in England (very few in Scotland, with North Ireland doing fairly well, and Wales looking more like England, but of course, there's no London in Wales).

UK should be at around 10-11,000 if they were following the curve we have in the U.S. There's not a lot published, yet, on why or how UK is set to be on this particular and tragic course. They haven't tallied up all their nursing home deaths or deaths at home, either. So they have 2X the case mortality rate that we do, but their curving is still rising in linear fashion twice as fast as hours.

We are still seeing increases in our cases and our deaths, but the rate is slowing down.

I hope people realize that when we "plateau" that means that the mortality rate will remain the same or slightly less than it is right now. Yesterday we lost just under 1000 Americans. Small changes in reporting numbers affect the data, but that's slightly less than a 2% increase - not too bad. My prediction is that we'll plateau around 800-900 deaths a day for a while (it took Italy about 2-3 weeks to get from their original plateau down to half of their plateau number). They are at 450 deaths per day - which is where we *may* be in a month, except that some states are opening.

We shall see. 800 deaths per day is about 24000 deaths per month in the US. 400 deaths per day for the month after that is 12000 deaths. If we plateau right now, at about 1000 deaths, that's 30,000 in the next month. I think we'll be near 1000 deaths a day for the next week, so 25,000-30,000 deaths from April 25 to May 24 is certainly a grim possibility.

States vary in their ability to handle this extraordinary event. In California, the case mortality rate is 3.8% (and we're counting nursing home deaths, AFAIK, but not all deaths at home), there's another number that's important. We've only had 35,800 people go for testing, almost always because they had many or a few symptoms. In some more rural counties, it's far less than that. So, in those counties, there are "soft openings" of small businesses, beaches (but no congregating or sunbathing or anything like that - just exercising). IOW, we have a very low testing rate in California but many sample tests from various populations that appear to be asymptomatic or with mild symptoms. 1500 Californians have died out of 39,000,000 of us - as compared to 21,283 New Yorkers out of about 20 million. You can see what a stark difference that is.

So, when your friends interpret "on a plateau" or "the curve has flattened" to mean "this is all over now, we're fine, we're good," please let them know what your state or area is facing. California was initially predicted to peak at 126 deaths per day, then IMHE revised that downward to 62, but they were wrong. We have apparently peaked at around 116, so very close to the initial estimate.

But we had only 62 new deaths yesterday and only 332 new cases, which would seem that we are definitely on a downward slope. However, it's clear some counties haven't reported and are on a 2-3 day delay, so when the data are rectified, I'm guessing it'll be closer to 80-90.

From the U of NH report:

DURHAM, N.H.— In a nationwide effort to get people to stay at home and not travel between states or to vacation homes, new research out of the University of New Hampshire finds rural counties across the United States with high numbers of seasonal homes saw higher rates of COVID-19 cases than either urban or other rural areas.

“These findings are consistent with anecdotal reports from popular vacation spots that were seeing an increase in visitors, including some who may have unknowingly been infected, that are leaving urban areas and trying socially distance at second homes and seasonal rental properties,” said Jessica Carson, research assistant professor at UNH’s Carsey School of Public Policy.

The study found that in the nation’s 199 rural counties where seasonal housing accounts for 25 percent or more of all housing units, average cases per 100,000 people were more than twice as high as in other rural counties and 15 percent higher than in urban areas.

[...]

UNH Research Finds Rural Areas with Seasonal Homes Hit Hard by COVID-19

 

[Tony1902]

That made me cry. My DH is going to tell me to get off the internet.

Sometimes I feel that older people don't matter very much. It's so hard to watch younger people find it SO difficult to stay 6 feet away from people obviously older. It is getting better, I know the young ones don't really dislike us older ones, but sometimes I think I should get a cane out and dye my hair completely silver and carry an afghan around so that they'll stay away from me.

I feel your pain. I’m 71 with no gray but I’m very mean & outspoken & obnoxious when I feel the need to, which now is often. I’m tired of seeing people in our coastal Louisiana town not distancing, not wearing masks. <modsnip>

 

[margarita25]

(@KALI might be interested in this?)

Coronavirus: Newsom announces program for local eateries to prepare, deliver meals to seniors amid COVID-19 pandemic

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (KABC) -- In a move he says will allow restaurants across the state to rehire workers, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Friday an agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and local governments that will employ eateries to prepare and deliver three meals a day to eligible seniors.

The governor said during his daily coronavirus press conference that the first-in-the-nation partnership will provide an "unlimited" number of meals, with restaurants being reimbursed at rates up to $16 for each breakfast, $17 for each lunch and $28 for each dinner.

"Working with FEMA on ways to provide nutritious meals to our seniors, to get them delivered, but to also get them prepared. We started thinking about building a partnership with our restaurants industry, with kitchens, with our hospitality industry that's been ravaged by this pandemic," Newsom said. "This partnership will allow for the ability for restaurants to start rehiring people or keep people currently employed and start preparing meals, three meals a day, seven days a week and have those meals delivered to our seniors all throughout the state of California.
...

More information on the program program -- dubbed Restaurants Deliver: Home Meals for Older Californians'' can be found here.
...

Yes absolutely.

Also take a look at this interview with Jose Andres and Anderson Cooper / quick reference:

“With many small businesses temporarily closed and their employees out of work, Andrés is adapting his model to not only supply meals, but to also help restaurants retain some of their workforce.

"One thing we're doing [at] World Central Kitchen, which we believe is very smart, as one of our ways to take care of food is we will partner with a restaurant," Andrés told 60 Minutes. "In many cities we already have hundreds of restaurants. We will negotiate the price per meal."

Andrés told Cooper his organization then works with companies like Uber, Caviar and GrubHub that already have systems in place to deliver some of the meals.”

How José Andrés wants to keep America fed

 

[Sundog]

I can't get in to read this article, but it is an interesting phenomenon - the return of the family dinner.

The return of family dinner - The Boston Globe

 

[zecats]

I don't understand why you don't sanitize the contents?

ETA: is it because they've been in the mail long enough to rid any virus?

Yes pretty much. By the time the items ship and eventually arrive (from Target or Amazon for example), it's already been a few days.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

It's happening more than I would ever have thought. There's practically a war between the "mask-wearers/social distancers" and "the others." If anyone had the courage to study and interview "the others," some will be mentally ill, some will be believers that this is a hoax/caused by 5G or whatever, some are just belligerent.

Meanwhile:

US stays away as world leaders agree action on Covid-19 vaccine

Trump isolates US from world efforts to create and test CoVid-19 vaccine.

<modsnip>

This is terrible. Just terrible........... how do we get more involved? I am speechless.