I don't think we only going to lose 30,000 -40,000 more. This covid thing could go on for years, until we reach herd immunity, with at least 60% of population getting infected. We are far from 60% of population getting infected. So far only one drug (remdesivir) really showed some benefit in duration, but no benefit to death rate (difference was not significant) of those who are hospitalized. We don't have a vaccine, and not likely to get one really soon.
Totally agree. The original estimate of 250,000 or so may be closer to the truth - and could go much higher. To get to herd immunity with current mortality rates in California, we'd have to have thousands and thousands more deaths. With current mortality rates, it would be over 500,000 deaths mostly in the age group 50+, with a median age of around 69. So instead of just 1 dead child with an unknown underlying condition, there would be 300-500, and a lot of 30-somethings in the workplace would die as well. Something like 2500 (half a percent).
Will people find that tolerable as the price to pay for quicker herd immunity? It will likely be spread out over 3 years the way California is going, but if we did it quicker, would the public tolerate it? I think a lot of people will get very agro and upset in public at that scenario, way more than the people who are upset about the beaches being closed.
Using regional predictive models, one of the places that wants to open up faster (Sacramento) would have a bigger share of those deaths. Will they remember that they asked for that?
San Francisco Bay Area simply isn't going to do that degree of opening, methinks. But it would need to bar people from other counties from coming in! Quel cauchemar! SF Bay Area has its own local governments who are enacting more stringent policies. The risk of political and social fracturing over these issues is quite high.
I think L.A. may be more likely to just let it rip through the population, although the potential for overloading the very few local hospitals is immense. L.A. had a collapse of its hospitals about 15-20 years ago, now there are only a handful of really big ones, and lots of outpatient surgery centers.
