Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #53

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margarita25 said:
Churches will encompass huge clusters of infection moo. We saw it with Daegu and we will see it again JMO.
Click to expand...
Absolutely guaranteed. Churches are the most dangerous place to be in right now, possibly next to cruise ships. Visualize all those airborne viruses even if you can't actually see them with the naked eyes. Cotton masks are no help, I hope people realize if they are going to congregate in large numbers. JMO
 
tresir2012 said:
"Monahan told the staff that neither he, nor anybody else in the nation's capital, has access to the 15-minute tests the White House uses. He also noted that he does not have enough resources to test asymptomatic lawmakers, and will only be testing those who show signs associated with the disease such as cough, fever, difficulty breathing, runny nose and fatigue."

Ok so what are these 15 minute tests? Anyone know why everywhere cannot use them?
Click to expand...

Because the technology behind them is largely unavailable and therefore very expensive. I suspect they have their own PCR machines at the White House, for example.

Then, they have lab personnel to run the tests as needed. The test itself doesn't take long to run, it's the fact that the rest of us have to stand in line and there's a hard limit to how many tests can be processed per hour or per day per machine.

To look at it another way, one of the problems with Quest Diagnostics is that they didn't have enough PCR machines (in ordinary circumstances, they had enough - but the new load from this virus meant they didn't any longer have enough).

PCR machines can be purchased, but are in very high demand right now. California has more per capita than most states, but still can't arrange 2 hour (much less 15 minute) testing for its population.

So, yeah, I think the White House has its own lab technicians nearby and with adequate machinery to test as needed. The Executive Branch should be able to explain that to Congress. If budget is not an issue, Congress should be able to do the same thing. Some people will object to Congress spending all that money on themselves, of course.
 
Models are just that....an estimate. This one appears to be following actual trends, different to IHME.

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

This one estimates that the US will hit these death numbers in coming weeks:
Today May 1 so far 65,082
May 5. 70,000
May 10 80,000
May 17. 90,000
May 25. 100,000

Projected for August 4: 170k
Range 98k to 293k

This would be 2 full months ahead of the administration's estimates.....or should I say sacrifice to open the economy. Begs the question, how bad can it get by August 1?

We lost 675,000 in 1918 pandemic......
 
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JerseyGirl said:
Indiana did not close schools for the entire year. New York schools are closed for the rest of the semester and Gov. Cuomo will address the issue of having summer school later this month. Indiana schools are in Phase 5 below:

Coronavirus in Indiana: 5-stage plan to have state 'back on track' by July 4, Holcomb says

Indiana reported Friday 55 deaths due to the novel coronavirus, bringing the state's death toll to 1,062. The state has reported 18,630 total cases and 99,639 administered tests.

Here's what Holcomb said about reopening:

  • Holcomb said the state is using four principles to inform its reopening strategy: evidence of a 14-day decrease in the number of hospitalized patient, retaining the capacity of ICU beds and ventilators, the ability to test all Hoosiers who show symptoms of COVID-19, and the ability to contact trace all cases. The governor said the state has either met these principles are has ramped up efforts to do so.
  • Holcomb said reopening will happen in five stages, with the goal of having the state “back on track” by July 4. He cautioned that the plan is subject to change.
  • Stage 1 is the phase we have been in since mid-March. This phase includes essential manufacturing, construction, infrastructure, government, business and other critical operations remain open. Schools remain closed.
  • Stage 2 will begin on Monday, May 4 for most counties. Marion and Lake Counties can begin Stage 2 on May 11. Cass County can start Stage 2 on May 18. The stage includes: Those 65 and older or high-risk should remain at home as much as possible. Social gatherings can increase to 25 people. Restaurants can open at 50% capacity starting May 11. Essential travel restrictions will be lifted. Remaining manufacturers that were not considered essential will be able to open. Retail and commercial businesses will open at 50% capacity.
  • While state rules would allow Indianapolis to begin Phase 2 on May 11, a stay-at-home order for Marion County extends through May 15.
  • Restaurants and bars that serve food may open for dine-in starting May 11 at 50% capacity, but bar seating will remain closed.
  • Personal services such as hair salons and tattoo parlors can begin to open May 11 by appointment only and must follow social distancing guidelines.
  • Those who work in office settings are encouraged to work remotely whenever possible.
  • Starting May 8, for all counties, Indiana worship services may convene. Indoor services are limited to 10 people are fewer. Those 65 and older are asked to stay home.
  • On May 24, Stage 3 may begin: Those who are high-risk may venture out, cautiously. Those who can work remotely should continue to do so. Social gatherings of up to 100 people may occur. Retail stores and malls can go up to 75% capacity. Movie theaters can operate at 50% capacity.
  • If still on track, the state can move to Stage 4 by June 14. Face coverings will be optional. Zoos and museums can open at 50% capacity. Social gatherings of up to 200 will be allowed. State government buildings will reopen to the public. Office employees can resume work at full capacity. Retail can open at full capacity. Dining service can open at 75% capacity. Recreational sports and leagues can resume.
  • Stage 5 would begin July 4. Fairs, festivals and sporting events can resume, with social distancing guidelines. Remote work will still be optional. Retails stores, gyms, personal services and dining can operate at full capacity. Restrictions will be lifted at amusement parks and like facilities.
  • At Stage 5, the state will decide how to approach the next school year.
  • “Now comes the hard part,” Holcomb said. He said the plan will require “constant vigilance” from everyone, adding the number of cases will likely continue to increase. If the four principles aren’t met, the plan could change. “This is up to each and every one of us,” he said.
  • Holcomb said the point of the stay-at-home order was to make sure the state has the ability to treat patients, which requires slowing the spread of the virus. “Our effort going forward will be all about managing through this crisis. I’m praying for a vaccine but we gotta do what we can do right now.” Indiana State Department of Health Chief Medical Officer Lindsay Weaver added that the stay-at-home measures also protected those most at risk and helped hospitals prepare.
  • Holcomb said the state will support local municipalities – like Marion County and Indianapolis -- that make different reopening decisions based on their specific needs and data. The governor’s general counsel said, per state law, local communities can be more strict in their requirements than the state.
  • On the enforcement on the new guidelines, Holcomb said he trusts Hoosiers and that the state will continue to investigate complaints. But, Holcomb said, “it’s gonna come down to us” to play by the rules and stay on track.
  • On the counties that will not enter Stage 2 on Monday, including Marion County, Weaver said the state has taken into consideration the referral patterns between hospitals. Officials also looked at capacity at hospitals in those areas to make sure they can handle an influx of patients.
  • On balancing the public health and economic crisis, Holcomb said the state has taken a safety-first approach. “But we also don’t want to be reluctant to safely re-engage and restart and get back on track,” he said, adding that it’s “a little bit of science and a little bit of art.”
  • Weaver said 84 sites across the state are providing COVID-19 tests. The state will add an additional 50 sites through a partnership with OptumServe. The online portal including a map of locations is expected to be available Monday.
  • Asked about whether to wipe down groceries or mail with disinfectant, Weaver said the virus can live on a surface, but that proper hand washing and sanitizing should be enough.
  • On the seemingly symbolic July 4 date for Stage Five, Holcomb said, “it just played out to July as we were looking at the data before us.” He reiterated the plan and dates could change depending on the data.
  • Asked whether there was discussion about reopening regionally instead of by county, Holcomb said officials considered different geographies to contain the spread. “You’re obviously never going to get these things perfect… but we’ve tried to contain this to a point where we weren’t overextending those restrictions,” he said.
Click to expand...

Thank you for posting all those details. Sounds really well thought out. Upping the testing capacity is key and it's great to see Indiana on top of that.

Indiana posted 55 deaths two days ago and 61 yesterday, so appears to be bumping along at just above 50 (or 350 people per week). Some of those deaths in the elderly might have taken place due to other infections, but 1400 people a month from CoVid is still significant, and hopefully, Indiana can revise its opening dates as they see what happens next (I think that the number will stay around 50-60 for a while in the best case scenario).

Meanwhile, California is hovering around 25 deaths per day, and hopefully, you can all see why there are people in places like Bakersfield and Huntington Beach (and all of little Modoc county) wanting to proceed forward with reopening measures.
 
BayouBelle_LA said:
Coronavirus: Amid New York's unused hospital beds and ventilators, critics point to mass waste and mismanagement
Click to expand...

"[The models] have been extremely inaccurate," Dr. David Samadi, a New York-based surgeon, told Fox News. "These models gave a horrifying prediction that suggested COVID-19 could kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million Americans. Currently, it looks to be more like 60,000 to 65,000 deaths. While any American life lost to this virus is a shame, the death and infection rate is looking not quite so bleak as it was in the beginning."

Weren’t the models from the federal government and their doctors?
 
Orange County beach cities filing legal action against Gov. Newsom's closure

ORANGE COUNTY, Calif. (KABC) -- At least two Orange County cities are filing legal action to fight Gov. Gavin Newsom's order closing the county's beaches.

The Huntington Beach City Council on Thursday voted 5-2 to pursue a legal challenge against Newsom's order.
"Governor Newsom's mandate to close all beaches in Orange County today was a jarring decision that significantly impacts us here in Huntington Beach," said Huntington Beach Mayor Lyn Semeta. "Given that Orange County has among the lowest per-capita COVID-19 death rates in California, the action by the State prioritizes politics over data, in direct contradiction of the Governor's stated goal to allow science and facts to guide our response to this horrible global pandemic."

The city council of Dana Point also voted, 4-1, to pursue a temporary restraining order against the governor and the state.
...
 
Coronavirus: California court orders release of 7 high-level sex offenders as gov criminalizes beach attendance

"These kinds of high-risk sex offenders are the most dangerous kind of criminal and the most likely to re-offend," DA Todd Spitzer said in a statement. "They are doing everything they can to avoid detection by the parole officers assigned to monitor them so they can potentially commit additional sex offenses. These are not the kind of people who should be getting a break."

This kind of thing makes no sense to me. Let’s jail pastors for holding services while releasing inmates from prison.
 
JerseyGirl said:
"[The models] have been extremely inaccurate," Dr. David Samadi, a New York-based surgeon, told Fox News. "These models gave a horrifying prediction that suggested COVID-19 could kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million Americans. Currently, it looks to be more like 60,000 to 65,000 deaths. While any American life lost to this virus is a shame, the death and infection rate is looking not quite so bleak as it was in the beginning."

Weren’t the models from the federal government and their doctors?
Click to expand...

No kidding. Many professionals have been saying that from the beginning. IMO
 
JerseyGirl said:
"[The models] have been extremely inaccurate," Dr. David Samadi, a New York-based surgeon, told Fox News. "These models gave a horrifying prediction that suggested COVID-19 could kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million Americans. Currently, it looks to be more like 60,000 to 65,000 deaths. While any American life lost to this virus is a shame, the death and infection rate is looking not quite so bleak as it was in the beginning."

Weren’t the models from the federal government and their doctors?
Click to expand...
65,000 as of today so far.....I'm not sure what justifies his point. This is far from over....It's kinda like checking the score at the end of the first quarter and saying its the final score........Guess he hasn't lost a family member since he doesn't think 65,000 is bleak.
But, give it time.......We are headed to several 100 thousand deaths by the rash decisions occurring in the country.....IMO
 
JerseyGirl said:
Indiana did not close schools for the entire year. New York schools are closed for the rest of the semester and Gov. Cuomo will address the issue of having summer school later this month. Indiana schools are in Phase 5 below:

Coronavirus in Indiana: 5-stage plan to have state 'back on track' by July 4, Holcomb says

Indiana reported Friday 55 deaths due to the novel coronavirus, bringing the state's death toll to 1,062. The state has reported 18,630 total cases and 99,639 administered tests.

Here's what Holcomb said about reopening:

  • Holcomb said the state is using four principles to inform its reopening strategy: evidence of a 14-day decrease in the number of hospitalized patient, retaining the capacity of ICU beds and ventilators, the ability to test all Hoosiers who show symptoms of COVID-19, and the ability to contact trace all cases. The governor said the state has either met these principles are has ramped up efforts to do so.
  • Holcomb said reopening will happen in five stages, with the goal of having the state “back on track” by July 4. He cautioned that the plan is subject to change.
  • Stage 1 is the phase we have been in since mid-March. This phase includes essential manufacturing, construction, infrastructure, government, business and other critical operations remain open. Schools remain closed.
  • Stage 2 will begin on Monday, May 4 for most counties. Marion and Lake Counties can begin Stage 2 on May 11. Cass County can start Stage 2 on May 18. The stage includes: Those 65 and older or high-risk should remain at home as much as possible. Social gatherings can increase to 25 people. Restaurants can open at 50% capacity starting May 11. Essential travel restrictions will be lifted. Remaining manufacturers that were not considered essential will be able to open. Retail and commercial businesses will open at 50% capacity.
  • While state rules would allow Indianapolis to begin Phase 2 on May 11, a stay-at-home order for Marion County extends through May 15.
  • Restaurants and bars that serve food may open for dine-in starting May 11 at 50% capacity, but bar seating will remain closed.
  • Personal services such as hair salons and tattoo parlors can begin to open May 11 by appointment only and must follow social distancing guidelines.
  • Those who work in office settings are encouraged to work remotely whenever possible.
  • Starting May 8, for all counties, Indiana worship services may convene. Indoor services are limited to 10 people are fewer. Those 65 and older are asked to stay home.
  • On May 24, Stage 3 may begin: Those who are high-risk may venture out, cautiously. Those who can work remotely should continue to do so. Social gatherings of up to 100 people may occur. Retail stores and malls can go up to 75% capacity. Movie theaters can operate at 50% capacity.
  • If still on track, the state can move to Stage 4 by June 14. Face coverings will be optional. Zoos and museums can open at 50% capacity. Social gatherings of up to 200 will be allowed. State government buildings will reopen to the public. Office employees can resume work at full capacity. Retail can open at full capacity. Dining service can open at 75% capacity. Recreational sports and leagues can resume.
  • Stage 5 would begin July 4. Fairs, festivals and sporting events can resume, with social distancing guidelines. Remote work will still be optional. Retails stores, gyms, personal services and dining can operate at full capacity. Restrictions will be lifted at amusement parks and like facilities.
  • At Stage 5, the state will decide how to approach the next school year.
  • “Now comes the hard part,” Holcomb said. He said the plan will require “constant vigilance” from everyone, adding the number of cases will likely continue to increase. If the four principles aren’t met, the plan could change. “This is up to each and every one of us,” he said.
  • Holcomb said the point of the stay-at-home order was to make sure the state has the ability to treat patients, which requires slowing the spread of the virus. “Our effort going forward will be all about managing through this crisis. I’m praying for a vaccine but we gotta do what we can do right now.” Indiana State Department of Health Chief Medical Officer Lindsay Weaver added that the stay-at-home measures also protected those most at risk and helped hospitals prepare.
  • Holcomb said the state will support local municipalities – like Marion County and Indianapolis -- that make different reopening decisions based on their specific needs and data. The governor’s general counsel said, per state law, local communities can be more strict in their requirements than the state.
  • On the enforcement on the new guidelines, Holcomb said he trusts Hoosiers and that the state will continue to investigate complaints. But, Holcomb said, “it’s gonna come down to us” to play by the rules and stay on track.
  • On the counties that will not enter Stage 2 on Monday, including Marion County, Weaver said the state has taken into consideration the referral patterns between hospitals. Officials also looked at capacity at hospitals in those areas to make sure they can handle an influx of patients.
  • On balancing the public health and economic crisis, Holcomb said the state has taken a safety-first approach. “But we also don’t want to be reluctant to safely re-engage and restart and get back on track,” he said, adding that it’s “a little bit of science and a little bit of art.”
  • Weaver said 84 sites across the state are providing COVID-19 tests. The state will add an additional 50 sites through a partnership with OptumServe. The online portal including a map of locations is expected to be available Monday.
  • Asked about whether to wipe down groceries or mail with disinfectant, Weaver said the virus can live on a surface, but that proper hand washing and sanitizing should be enough.
  • On the seemingly symbolic July 4 date for Stage Five, Holcomb said, “it just played out to July as we were looking at the data before us.” He reiterated the plan and dates could change depending on the data.
  • Asked whether there was discussion about reopening regionally instead of by county, Holcomb said officials considered different geographies to contain the spread. “You’re obviously never going to get these things perfect… but we’ve tried to contain this to a point where we weren’t overextending those restrictions,” he said.
Click to expand...

At stage 5, we will discuss how to proceed with the NEXT school year. What is your point of contention?
 
May 1, 10:39 a.m. The U.S. Department of Education has asked the University of Texas system to share documents relating to its relationship with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which U.S. officials are investigating as a possible source of the coronavirus outbreak, The Wall Street Journal reported. There is no publicly available evidence supporting the theory that an accident at the lab is the source of the outbreak.

The letter from the Education Department is part of a broader probe into foreign gifts and contracts that has involved at least eight other universities. In addition to asking for documents relating to the University of Texas’s ties to the Wuhan lab and one of its researchers, Shi Zhengli, the department is also asking for records regarding the university system’s ties to the governing Chinese Communist Party and about two dozen Chinese universities and companies, including the telecommunication company Huawei. The department also asked for documents relating to any gifts and contracts from Eric Yuan, a U.S. citizen who leads Zoom Video Communications.

A Zoom spokesperson said Yuan had “not given any gifts to the University of Texas.” The Wuhan lab, Shi and Huawei all did not respond to The Wall Street Journal’s requests for comment. A spokesperson for the University of Texas said it intends to respond to the Education Department and declined to provide information about possible links to entities mentioned in the departments letter.

Live Updates: Latest News on Coronavirus and Higher Education
 
BayouBelle_LA said:
No kidding. Many professionals have been saying that from the beginning. IMO
Click to expand...
And if those professionals were saying from the beginning, they were wrong. We are already at 65,000 deaths. It's far from over. So him predicting total of 60,000 to 65,000 clearly is not going to be accurate. But the supposedly horrifying predictions might very well come true.
 
A Broken Supply Chain Means These 11 Products Could Be Out of Stock Soon

Many of the products people use in the U.S. are manufactured abroad, so the coronavirus-related factory shutdowns in China, India and elsewhere could have ripple effects on the availability of these items here soon — if they haven’t already.....

Laptops
Medical Supplies
Pharmaceutical Products
iPhones
Toilet Paper
LCD Televisions
Garlic
Vapes
Toys
Diet Soda
Specialty Food Items

Products That Are Already in Low Supply

Virtual Reality Headsets
Thermometers
Video Game Consoles
Disinfectants
Yeast
Hand Sanitizer
Freezers
 
Has this doctor quoted in this article checked that 65,000 already died? And in actually most likely more than 65,000 died, as not all dead people were tested for covid.
And it's far from over. And as states try to reopen, the cases will only go up, the deaths will only go up.
 
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