Figuring out the stats on coronavirus in Wales
Part of the article below. Rest at link.
How many people are in hospital with coronavirus?
NHS Wales also gives us figures weekly about how many patients are being treated.
- About 40% of acute hospital beds are empty, with 677 confirmed cases in Welsh hospitals and 343 suspected cases
- One in five intensive care beds are occupied by people with confirmed or suspected coronavirus - 50% lower than the peak
- On 7 May, there were 81 patients with confirmed or suspected coronavirus in critical care
- Just over 52% of patients in critical care units have coronavirus
- Hospital admissions with Covid-19 have averaged 128 a day in the past week, slightly more than the previous week
Why are all these different figures from different sources?
The
ONS and public health bodies are measuring things in a different way - and information is available at different times so do not expect to see the same thing.
The ONS gives figures based on all deaths registered involving Covid-19, according to what a doctor puts on the death certificate, whether in or out of hospital.
The virus may not be the main cause of death, just a factor. Recent ONS analysis suggests heart disease was the most common main pre-existing condition found in 14% of deaths involving coronavirus.
The figures include when Covid-19 is reported on the death certificate, but there does not need to have been a positive test, it could be it was just suspected by the doctor.
People have up to two weeks to register deaths but more than 80% are usually registered in Wales within a week. The ONS also provides provisional updated totals based on the latest death registrations available. All figures come out weekly.
Public Health Wales issues daily updates and provides
an online dashboard to show numbers of deaths and positive tests for coronavirus.
Most of the deaths it includes are in hospitals - it receives information on a daily basis from health boards.
It only includes a "proportion" of deaths in care homes and relies on health boards to report them, but it is looking to develop this.
It will only include deaths which were given a positive test for Covid-19 in a laboratory - not any suspected cases.
Coronavirus deaths in Wales
Updated daily at 14:00 BST. Includes updates following revisions
Source: Public Health Wales, 7 May 2020
It is a snapshot of deaths, notified by the previous day, but the hope is we get an understanding more of what is happening before the "gold standard" figures from ONS two weeks later.
But the daily bulletin is not necessarily "new" deaths but those ready to be reported by PHW on that particular day. So it can include deaths reported by health boards, which could be from several days ago.
The data is revised and PHW refines and verifies it and then each individual fatality is assigned to the date at which it occurred.
PHW has also revised the figures on two notable occasions - once after it emerged
Betsi Cadwaladr health board had been using a different computer system and had under-reported numbers.
