Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #55

[MajorHoople]

Nearly 82% Of Covid-19 Cases In Knox County Recovered

"The breakdown of numbers related to the virus is as follows:

Positive cases: 278

Deaths: 5

Recovered: 226

Active cases: 47

Hospitalizations: 36

Currently Hospitalized: 3"

 

[RANCH]

Yeah but remember too we don't know that lol. Somebody asked me once if I was Andy Cohen (Bravo) nope I was channel surfing and Bravo it was to be.

I've never kept it a secret either. It's best not to assume someones gender here.

 

[10ofRods]

It took 12 days for the pandemic total to jump from 3 million to 4 million, the same number of days it took for the total to rise from 2 million to 3 million. The total stands at 4,020,878, and 279,007 people have died from their infections, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard.
Global COVID-19 total passes 4 million cases

Following your projections (which are as good as any), we get 5.3 million cases worldwide by May 25th or so.

And if the US and other Western nations continue on this path (there are 8 nations dealing with rates higher than in the US), we'll be at something like 125,000 deaths in the US by May 25, and as many as 170,000 by June 1-4.

Surely this is a fluke in reporting? Did any places just upload their nursing home deaths or out-of-hospital deaths and therefore it looks higher? I need to go look at the state by state data, but I'm trying to stay optimistic until we understand what's going on.

The easiest hypothesis is that, just as I can see on news shows and web cams everywhere, and in hometown newspapers all across America - people are out in droves right now. Without masks.

 

[Trino]

Surely everyone will stay home? Doesn't appear to be the case. Our state still has a Stay at Home order, yet I can definitely see a difference in traffic from a month ago until today. <modsnip>

 

[Bravo]

I've never kept it a secret either. It's best not to assume someones gender here.

So true

 

[10ofRods]

So...we can't say we've peaked, because the data show the biggest jump in daily new cases so far (AFAIK). I'm a bit dazed by this information.

We did not plateau in the United States - we did so briefly, and then decided to celebrate by going out and passing around more CoVid. IMO.

Just for reference we were at 77,602 as of close of reporting yesterday. If we're truly over 80,000 on a Saturday report, that's just an ill wind that blows no one good.

No one.

 

[RANCH]

Surely everyone will stay home? Doesn't appear to be the case. Our state still has a Stay at Home order, yet I can definitely see a difference in traffic from a month ago until today. <modsnip>

I have an essential job in Sacramento Ca so I'm still working. I would say that the commute traffic is only up a little from a couple of weeks ago.

I can still use a route that I never could take before the pandemic. JMO

 

[pocketaccent]

Oh, freaking no way.

That's correct - even a few days ago, was thought to be the estimate for June 1 (with a bracket of up to 100,000 for June 1). It seemed clear since last weekend that we'd go over the estimate somewhat but we aren't even halfway through May! Are we going to see a doubling in 10-14 days? That's what some models are predicting. SURELY people will start staying home?

The data is coming from CDC and is on all the major dashboards.

Coronavirus Dashboard

Now off to find out where and how this happened.

Wrong direction. 2500 yesterday, IIRC and now we're UP. Maybe everyone is losing their minds and their will to survive as a civil society.

(Do you think California is ready for the Phase 3 in less than a month??)

Phase 3: Gov. Newsom teases next stage of reopening California businesses is closer than we thought
LOS ANGELES -- California just began to move into Phase 2 of reopening Friday amid the coronavirus crisis, but Gov. Gavin Newsom hinted the Phase 3 could be just on the horizon during a press conference on Friday.

"Phase 3 is not a year away. It's not 6 months away. It's not even three months away. It may not even be more than a month away," Newsom said. "We just want to make sure we have a protocol in place to secure customer safety, employee safety and allow the businesses to thrive in a way that is sustainable."
...

 

[Kensie]

LadyL sorry for the passing of your father. Hugs and prayers to you an your family.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I found three pairs two are not the “fitted tight against the face style” like that. More like wrap around glasses. One pair of legit Goggles. Sorta heavy big and bulky. Might be too much.
I’ll have to weigh my options based on fit and fogging up with mask usage. Currently scanning amazon as well for something

Us SCUBA divers say spit is better than any antifogger spray

 

[Bravo]

I have been worried about a surge based on what we have been seeing with folks just ignoring protocols. Protesting in mass, partying etc. etc. and again i will say with summer coming for many it's not going to end well. Our Provincial Parks are opening up for hikes, bike rides etc. Beaches closed. If there is an uptik or folks ignoring it ends. Our PM stated today if folks don't abide we will be in lock down for the summer. I will do whatever it takes to get thru this for myself and loved one's. I do agree with our Premier that even tho I live in an area with low numbers, surrounding me not so much. Toronto and Ottawa are a hot mess. Restrictions for your Province will be for every city, town within. I'm good with that. Keeps folks from thinking they can travel for a service.

 

[firebird]

I have an essential job in Sacramento Ca so I'm still working. I would say that the commute traffic is only up a little from a couple of weeks ago.

I can still use a route that I never could take before the pandemic. JMO

Same. And I'm in a State with not nearly so draconian measures as California. Traffic is on the uptick, but not by a ton that I can see. I expect that will change significantly in the next week or two, though, as employers start transitioning people back to the office -- or trying.

 

[Bravo]

Us SCUBA divers say spit is better than any antifogger spray

Spit is the best. We did that when using the bigger snorkel masks when way out. Wish this was a time we could use spit. The smaller tight fitting googles we used when just by the shore are perfect for this pandemic.

 

[Bravo]

LadyL sorry for the passing of your father. Hugs and prayers to you an your family.

I'm waiting on your hair report Kensie

 

[tabitha111]

All I can say is my feet look fabulous.
Been spending down time with my 4 texture buffer.
Figured now's the time, while I can still see my toes and reach them.

OT: please show picture or link to this magical foot buffer...I want!!

 

[gngr~snap]

Spit is the best. We did that when using the bigger snorkel masks when way out. Wish this was a time we could use spit. The smaller tight fitting googles we used when just by the shore are perfect for this pandemic.

Eww! I just had a light bulb moment! I remember that from my lifeguard course!
AND, treading water FOREVER, using our clothes as flotation devices, wow! That was a LONG time ago.
Moo
Sorry OT

 

[Henry2326]

I've followed your posts on phylogeny from NextStrain, wish I understood better how to "read" the charts. I need a 101 for dummies course or crib notes lol.

Try this presentation from Nextstrain....it works better on a computer than tablet.

auspice

 

[Bravo]

LOL I typed googles instead of goggles I'm tired tonight.

 

[10ofRods]

(Do you think California is ready for the Phase 3 in less than a month??)

Phase 3: Gov. Newsom teases next stage of reopening California businesses is closer than we thought
LOS ANGELES -- California just began to move into Phase 2 of reopening Friday amid the coronavirus crisis, but Gov. Gavin Newsom hinted the Phase 3 could be just on the horizon during a press conference on Friday.

"Phase 3 is not a year away. It's not 6 months away. It's not even three months away. It may not even be more than a month away," Newsom said. "We just want to make sure we have a protocol in place to secure customer safety, employee safety and allow the businesses to thrive in a way that is sustainable."
...

My first impulse is to say "not any more" even though California actually dropped below its projected death tally today - so we're doing our part!

Opening up means motels, rental car agencies and...state parks? The stats from last year show that a huge percentage of that business sector is tourism from other states.

The overwhelming factor, though, is that in general, people everywhere are more and more acting like CoVid never happened. It's going to take real leadership from all sectors to keep California on its current downward trajectory.

A quick perusal of the data shows an alarming increase (per capita) in Michigan, with 4526 dead. In one state. With a population of 10 million (¼ of the population of California). Of tested cases in Michigan, 10% have died.

Anyway, looking at the CDC data, it's clear we did not "peak," nor have we even plateaued. It's worth noting that Michigan is further north. Massachusetts and New Jersey are still struggling, too. Pennsylvania and Illinois also adding to the total/not yet at peak (that was predicted).

Are people just giving up? Are people really attending infection parties? Why oh why did public officials defy local ordinances to get hair cuts or about the wearing of masks?

I guess it could be worse. I mean, other nations have a higher per capita rate, but I sure do hope the USA doesn't intend to catch up to San Marino...or Belgium...

 

[RANCH]

Same. And I'm in a State with not nearly so draconian measures as California. Traffic is on the uptick, but not by a ton that I can see. I expect that will change significantly in the next week or two, though, as employers start transitioning people back to the office -- or trying.

I'm waiting to see if I need to go back to my old route which avoided the congested freeways. So far I can still use the freeways going 65+ the whole way to work.

My normal route uses a shorter route that has many more stops but is faster than using the freeways.