Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #55

[The Night Watchman]

How scared are you?

The stories are daunting. Young people dying of coronavirus seemingly everyday. How common is this, or do we just hear virtually every story of this type?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

No national mortality data is available, which is remarkable but another story, so I go to Massachusetts mortality data.

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-may-7-2020/download

And I ask, what is my risk of dying from Coronavirus? Age 57, no pre-existing condition.

From Massachusetts data, population 7 million, 4552 deaths, average age of death is 82, 98.3% with pre-existing conditions. Taking age group data, I broke it down the MA numbers with respect to risk based on pre-existing condition (PEC) or not.

Columns-
Age group
Reported deaths within the age group
% of total MA population that falls within each age group
Population of each age group
Calculated deaths in each age group with PEC
Calculated deaths in each age group without PEC
% chance of dying within age group with PEC
% chance of dying within age group without PEC
1 in x chance of dying within each age group with PEC
1 in x chance of dying within each age group without PEC



Since the chance of death percentages are so small, they can be hard to interpret, thus the "1 in x" chance columns. This is historical data up to today. If you are reading this, you are alive.
Since this is prior data, I would look at this as future risk going into the next five months, when deaths totals may double.

So how screwed am I? Well, age group 50-60 without PEC says I have a 0.0003% chance of ending up dead. Better yet, I'd say it is a 1 in 355,000 chance of dying. I'll take those odds.

If I had a pre-existing condition, I would start to get worried and take serious precautions. The odds of dying are still pretty low, but I would worry about a prolonged hospital stay and the potential for lasting damage (don't know this risk though).

The real danger is for those over 80 with around a 1% chance of catching CV and dying from it. Note, most won't catch it, but if you do, the outlook is much worse.

Ages from 0-20 have a much greater chance of dying from the seasonal flu.

Note that if you go to lengths to protect yourself, your odds improve.

These are numbers that should roughly represent the national story, but certainly there will be differences. If you think it is 10x worse somewhere else, then move a decimal point.

Pre-existing conditions come in many flavors, so this exercise doesn't represent a breakdown of individual risks.

The numbers also don't speak of permanent damage from coronavirus, but there is not much available information. My non-educated guess would be a large percentage of those with lasting effects were those on respirators. Certainly others issues have been reported but we don't have an idea of the prevalence, other than these issues are not very prevalent.

And it is just a thought exercise to put context into what general risk there is for age demographics in the context of the never ending onslaught of death totals.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Boston cancels summer parades and festivals

All parades and festivals in Boston are canceled for the summer, up to and including Labor Day on Sept. 7, due to coronavirus concerns, Mayor Marty Walsh announced today.

New Jersey will start testing asymptomatic people at some testing sites

Several facilities in New Jersey will now offer tests to asymptomatic people as part of the state’s efforts to increase testing. The facilities will prioritize health care workers and other frontline workers, as well as individuals who have come in contact with someone who has tested positive for Covid-19.

 

[Really?]

Idle Musing - What would this Virus Crisis would have been like for all of us without the Internet ? Just the TV, radio, newspapers, and "word of mouth" for info, rumors, and instructions/suggestions/ facts? from our State Authorities ?........... moo

I devoured newspapers on my lunch break. I also would get the news from TV.

As far as the internet goes....I be accomplishing a heck of a lot more.....LOL

 

[MimosaMornings]

@10ofRods, thanks for the advice! I am feeling better than if I had the seasonal flu (have had that a few times), but today I have the most horrible taste in my mouth and the headache is worse. Also sleeping a lot.

Good to hear you are feeling better.
Hang in there

 

[cody22]

Commissioner Camp Slams Gov Wolf After Learning Beaver County Only In Region Not Reopening - BeaverCountian.com

Pennyslvania Virus News....moo

 

[imstilla.grandma]

If those results were to hold, tens or even hundreds of millions of unimmunized Americans could ultimately undermine any vaccine’s ability to stop the spread of the virus.

Given that other polls have shown 84 percent of Americans believe it’s either extremely or very important that parents vaccinate their children, it’s possible — even likely — that many holdouts will change their minds once a COVID-19 inoculation is shown to be safe and effective.
...

New Yahoo News/YouGov coronavirus poll: Almost 1 in 5 say they won't get vaccinated

 

[cody22]

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2020/05/08/mark-cuban-secret-shoppers.html

Dallas Texas Secret Shoppers Virus News....moo

 

[Really?]

I searched and searched for the origin of this saying because...yes.

Damian Barr on Twitter:
"We are not all in the same boat. We are all in the same storm. Some are on super-yachts. Some have just the one oar."
Twitter

This is very true.....good one for sure.

 

[10ofRods]

Millions stuck at home with no plumbing, kitchen or space to stay safe



more at link

Many of those are, sadly, on Native American land. Then there's that big block in West Texas, which I know well. I know the southern section of El Paso has houses like the one pictured.

We've lost our will, as a society, to solve these kinds of problems. Is it weird for me to say that all our rich celebrities and sports figures aren't doing as much as I would have thought? I guess they are worried about their own continued standard of living. In the case of one fairly famous rock star, whose name I won't mention, he and wife bought a $5M Malibu home about 2 years ago, but a year later, they had to put it back on the market, as well as a house in Northern California. Probably needed the cash to continue the lifestyle and last I heard, they were looking at much less expensive properties. The L.A. Times has a Sunday celebrity real estate feature, which contained this information.

I think the housing markets everywhere are going to fall, even with such low interest rates. I am also reading about local mom and pop businesses closing for good, with the couple moving out of California to someplace cheaper. Nevada is apparently the top choice, with Arizona, Oklahoma and Texas also top destinations. But these are going to be bargain hunters, looking for condos and the like.

 

[Really?]

Tonix Pharmaceuticals licences three Covid-19 vaccine candidates

Vaccine info from a horsepox source.

Tonix Pharmaceuticals has signed a research collaboration and exclusive licensing agreement with the University of Alberta in Canada for three new vaccine candidates to prevent Covid-19.

The partnership will develop the three vaccine candidates, which are based on the horsepox vector platform and designed to express various SARS-CoV-2 antigens.

Nice......I studied up recently on the horse flu from 1872.......from bats...moo

 

[cody22]

People are speaking out in support of Costco after customers threatened to boycott the warehouse chain for requiring shoppers to wear masks

National Virus News.....moo

 

[JerseyGirl]

Friday prayers resume as mosques reopen in Lebanon

Lebanon's mosques welcomed worshippers for Friday prayers, as authorities eased restrictions imposed in March to limit the spread of the coronavirus.

Dozens of worshippers preformed the weekly prayers at Beirut's iconic Al-Amin Mosque. The masked worshippers sat, contrary to traditions, at considerable distance from one another and were obliged to bring their own prayer mats.

 

[musicaljoke]

Health Unit just called and my Covid test was negative as I felt it would. So I can go back to work next Thursday for my minimal hrs. It was required of me to have one since I have not worked since March 26th. Which seems like a lifetime ago. I'm looking forward as I miss my "people" and most of the staff. Key word most lol.

That's super! Refresh my mind, what day did you get the test done? I'm curious to see how we are doing with test backlogs.
Now, you be careful going to work out there, ok? Maybe you better carry a hockey stick.

 

[The Night Watchman]

The demonstrations against the lockdowns and restrictions are actually pretty limited, but magnified 100x by the press. But there is an undeniable undercurrent of people questioning the shutdown approach.

If there is likely to be a point in time when the flood gates might open, I would look at Memorial Day weekend. Trips are cancelled, and everyone will still be pretty much stuck at home in their neighborhoods. I would expect an onslaught of parties and barbecues and a pretty drastic breakdown of social distancing.

Once the genie gets out of that bottle, it will be difficult to stop the momentum.

 

[Trino]

That's crazy. Worrying about the economy/unemployment has now replaced my nightly worry about the virus itself. I need to get a certain amount of worrying done before I go to sleep, I guess for me it's a kind of meditation.

But this is just shocking. I get the parking lot attendants...but the techs and aides? I know that these people *may* get unemployment (what happens if the Feds get their way and many states declare bankruptcy?) It is truly callous.

Oh, I hope you don't feel awkward at all. We just had a little "pretend Christmas" with our one granddaughter from whom we are quarantined and it was SO fun. She opened her gifts and really enjoyed showing them to the camera. Everyone will enjoy watching so much. If you're using Zoom, you can also record it and people who couldn't watch, can watch later.

It's time for the technologically challenged to learn to do these things - you're a pioneer, @Bravo!

My son and daughter-in-law just had a pretend birthday for their dog. Made cupcakes and decorated with balloons, gave the dog some wrapped up treats. And, of course, they sang Happy Birthday to the dog and had treats.

We have baby-sitting duty for a couple of hours next week. Staying outside. We're going for a walk with backpacks, stopping on a bench for a picnic (no tables around). Will take some sandwiches, snacks, drinks. Should be fun for a 3 1/2 yr old. He can carry a backpack too.

 

[10ofRods]

Keeping an eye on reopening statistics in the US:

24 hour period with results from May 7-8 shows that the US has 2,252 deaths in one day, up 3% from the day before. That's quite a bit up. Getting under 1% would be good.

That's about 15,000 deaths in the next week (or more, if we keep inching up).

That would be 85,000 deaths by mid-May. I had predicted/hoped optimistically that by end of May, we'd be around 96,000-100,000 deaths, but it looks like we will exceed that. Even if the rate drops to 1500 a day, we've got 20 days or so to go in May.

No signs of slowing down as it warms up, but it's going to warm up more and perhaps that will help. No one knows for sure.

 

[JerseyGirl]

California unemployment is more than 20%, governor says

Newsom said unemployment numbers are lagging and warned, “Let me reassure you, those numbers underestimate the rate in this country.”

Paying for unemployment: The governor said he will present a balanced budget next week, as is constitutionally required. Newsom is projecting tens of billions of revenue shortfall, when that revised budget is released on May 14.

Once again, Newsom cried out for the help of the federal government.

“We cannot do justice to the 40 million Americans – in this state that need us now more than ever without the support of the federal government, period," he said.

On Monday, Newsom said the state will need to borrow funds from the federal government to pay unemployment claims.

 

[Sundog]

That's super! Refresh my mind, what day did you get the test done? I'm curious to see how we are doing with test backlogs.
Now, you be careful going to work out there, ok? Maybe you better carry a hockey stick.

Ha! Expat here. OT but when we cross the border for trips by car into Canada, I love to stop at a Canadian Tire Store to look around, especially enjoy the section with hockey sticks and skates (ice skates, of course). Grew up with Hockey night in Canada, every Saturday night on tv. Great memories.

 

[cass523]

New Jersey's hard-hit fishing industry will be allocated $11 million of the $300 million available in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or CARES Act, according to U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone Jr.

Pallone, a Democrat whose Sixth District stretches along the coast of much of Monmouth and Middlesex counties, said the money will be made available to the commercial fishing, charter and for-hire fishing businesses, aquaculture operations, processors and other fishery-related businesses in the state. The money will be in the form of grants that do not have to be repaid.

The CARES Act was approved by Congress on March 27. Pallone said he thought it "outrageous" that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has taken until May to make the funds available. Even still, the funds are not ready to be distributed.

The state's commercial fishing industry, which landed over $170 million worth of fish in 2018, has seen seafood prices drop because its main buyer is the restaurant industry. And those establishments have been relegated to take-out business only due to social distancing measures enacted to stop the spread of COVID-19.

About two-thirds of U.S. fishery products are consumed at food service establishments, according to Saving Seafood, a national coalition of seafood harvesters that includes New Jersey members.

Coronavirus NJ: $11M to keep NJ fishing industry alive; 'This is getting very serious'

Saving Seafood

 

[10ofRods]

How scared are you?

The stories are daunting. Young people dying of coronavirus seemingly everyday. How common is this, or do we just hear virtually every story of this type?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

No national mortality data is available, which is remarkable but another story, so I go to Massachusetts mortality data.

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-may-7-2020/download

And I ask, what is my risk of dying from Coronavirus? Age 57, no pre-existing condition.

From Massachusetts data, population 7 million, 4552 deaths, average age of death is 82, 98.3% with pre-existing conditions. Taking age group data, I broke it down the MA numbers with respect to risk based on pre-existing condition (PEC) or not.

Columns-
Age group
Reported deaths within the age group
% of total MA population that falls within each age group
Population of each age group
Calculated deaths in each age group with PEC
Calculated deaths in each age group without PEC
% chance of dying within age group with PEC
% chance of dying within age group without PEC
1 in x chance of dying within each age group with PEC
1 in x chance of dying within each age group without PEC

View attachment 246139

Since the chance of death percentages are so small, they can be hard to interpret, thus the "1 in x" chance columns. This is historical data up to today. If you are reading this, you are alive.
Since this is prior data, I would look at this as future risk going into the next five months, when deaths totals may double.

So how screwed am I? Well, age group 50-60 without PEC says I have a 0.0003% chance of ending up dead. Better yet, I'd say it is a 1 in 355,000 chance of dying. I'll take those odds.

If I had a pre-existing condition, I would start to get worried and take serious precautions. The odds of dying are still pretty low, but I would worry about a prolonged hospital stay and the potential for lasting damage (don't know this risk though).

The real danger is for those over 80 with around a 1% chance of catching CV and dying from it. Note, most won't catch it, but if you do, the outlook is much worse.

Ages from 0-20 have a much greater chance of dying from the seasonal flu.

Note that if you go to lengths to protect yourself, your odds improve.

These are numbers that should roughly represent the national story, but certainly there will be differences. If you think it is 10x worse somewhere else, then move a decimal point.

Pre-existing conditions come in many flavors, so this exercise doesn't represent a breakdown of individual risks.

The numbers also don't speak of permanent damage from coronavirus, but there is not much available information. My non-educated guess would be a large percentage of those with lasting effects were those on respirators. Certainly others issues have been reported but we don't have an idea of the prevalence, other than these issues are not very prevalent.

And it is just a thought exercise to put context into what general risk there is for age demographics in the context of the never ending onslaught of death totals.

As you've said all along, since you have no PEC, your chances of dying from CoVid are extremely small. You might as well go fishing with a metal pole on a big flat lake in a thunderstorm. I think the Massachusetts data are definitely applicable (proportionately) to many other places - that's great data. But of course, your government has MIT and Harvard and Boston University and...well, a lot of experts to help design these dashboards.

As an aside, Massachusetts is doing a great job with containing CoVid, given the higher population density than in the West and its nearness to New York etc. We're keeping a list of states we might visit when this is over, since it'll be at least 2 years before Europe is safe to return to. Massachusetts is definitely on our list, we've been taking walking tours of Boston.